Can Enphase Energy Stock Maintain Its Strong Outperformance?

ENPH: Enphase Energy logo
ENPH
Enphase Energy

Enphase Energy Inc. stock (NASDAQ: ENPH) is up 12% in the past two weeks (10 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was down around 1% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five days and one month, too, the stock has returned 1.4% and 6.5%, respectively, hugely outperforming the broader market on both occasions. Enphase had reported strong Q2 ’22 earnings back in July, with revenue rising sharply from $316 million in Q2 ’21 to $530 million in Q2 ’22. Despite a significant rise in COGS and operating expenses, the company’s operating income rose from $59.4 million to $94 million over this period. Additionally, a sharp drop in interest expense outweighed a rise in the effective tax rate and EPS rose from $0.29 in Q2 ’21 to $0.57 in Q2 ’22.

Now, is Enphase Energy stock set to continue its outperformance or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a decent 57% chance of a rise in ENPH stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on ENPH Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Enphase Energy (ENPH) Stock Return

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Twenty-One Day: ENPH 6.5%, vs. S&P500 -8%; Outperformed market

(47% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • ENPH stock gained 6.5% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 8%
  • A change of 6.5% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 47% likelihood event, which has occurred 1175 times out of 2514 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 1175 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 668 occasions
  • This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: ENPH 12%, vs. S&P500 -0.9%; Outperformed market

(27% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • ENPH stock gained 12% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.9%
  • A change of 12% or more over ten trading days is a 27% likelihood event, which has occurred 672 times out of 2514 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 672 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 394 occasions
  • This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: ENPH 1.4%, vs. S&P500 -0.8%; Outperformed market

(50% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next five days)

  • ENPH stock rose 1.4% over a five-day trading period ending 9/14/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down 0.8% over this period.
  • A change of 1.4% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 50% likelihood event, which has occurred 1247 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 1247 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 692 occasions
  • This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Sep 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 ENPH Return 9% 71% 30851%
 S&P 500 Return -1% -18% 75%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 0% -15% 235%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 9/15/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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