What Are Equifax Investors Betting On?
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Shares of Equifax (EFX) trade at 27.0 times adjusted earnings for the four quarters ended September 30, 2026. That profit figure adds back stock-based compensation after tax. The multiple looks steep for a credit bureau whose management calls the U.S. mortgage market challenging, and it stands as a high price for one year of profit. Forecast profit gives lower multiples, but most of that gap comes from a different profit measure, not from growth. Most of fiscal 2026 is already reported. So what growth in sales and profit are you paying for?
Equifax’s Profit Is Forecast To Outgrow Its Sales
The consensus forecast expects Equifax’s net income to rise 14.2% in fiscal 2027, alongside 6.1% revenue growth. Because profit outpaces sales, the forecast implies a wider net margin of 17.0% for fiscal 2027. Under that projection, Equifax would keep more of each dollar it sells.
On the consensus forecast, Equifax’s market value is 20.9 times its expected net income for fiscal 2026. On the forecast for fiscal 2027 it is 18.3 times. That is not directly comparable with 27.0 times on the past four quarters’ adjusted earnings, since the forecasts appear to count adjusted profit as management defines it, a different measure from the trailing figure.
Has Equifax Been Delivering That Growth?
Equifax has delivered on sales, with revenue growing 10.9% over the four quarters ended September 30, 2026. That pace exceeds the forecast for fiscal 2027. Workforce Solutions, which sells income and employment data, is the company’s largest segment, followed by U.S. Information Solutions.
For the nearer year, the forecast aligns with management’s own guide. On October 20, 2026, management guided for fiscal 2026 revenue of $6.65 billion to $6.68 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $8.45 to $8.55. The consensus forecast sits inside both ranges.
On profit, the comparison is less clear. Its net margin was 10.9% on reported figures in fiscal 2025, below the forecast for fiscal 2027, but the consensus may count adjusted profit, so the two margins may not be on the same measure. Management does expect wider margins: it guides its adjusted EBITDA margin, excluding FICO mortgage royalties, up 100 basis points in 2026. That guide covers a different year and measure, so it does not back the fiscal 2027 net margin forecast.
Where Equifax Could Fall Short Of The Forecast
Mortgage revenue presents the most likely shortfall. Management lowered its fiscal 2026 revenue guide to $6.66 billion at the midpoint, down from $6.75 billion in July, because mortgage revenue is now expected to come in about $80 million below the July guide.
Sales growth is also slowing. Management guides for reported revenue growth of 3.5% to 5.4% in fiscal Q4 2026, following a 9.6% pace in fiscal Q3 2026. Looking into 2027, management expects U.S. mortgage market transactions to fall by a high single digit percentage against 2026, and it has not given 2027 guidance. If the mortgage market weakens more than management expects, the consensus forecast for fiscal 2027 sales and profit could prove too high.
If the forecast arrives, the forward multiples are a fair picture of what you pay for Equifax. The forecast is most likely to fall short in 2027 mortgage revenue, and a shortfall there would make the stock a riskier bet, priced for profit that may not arrive. Mortgage revenue is the measure to watch when Equifax reports its fiscal fourth quarter of 2026, expected in February 2027.
Not Sure Equifax Is Worth It At This Price?
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