Domino’s Pizza Stock Is Waiting On One Answer

Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) stock has lost 27.0% over the past year. During that same period, the S&P 500 posted a 17.9% return. The central risk lies close to home. Management says U.S. franchisees are under profit pressure, and this pressure has already strained the pipeline of new stores. In the latest quarter, Domino’s U.S. growth came largely from new stores. How many stores franchisees will actually open in 2027 remains unsettled.

Domino’s American Growth Came Mostly From New Stores Last Quarter

In the third quarter of 2026, U.S. retail sales for Domino’s grew 2.1%. This expansion was driven mainly by net store growth, while same-store sales rose 0.3%. Executives now expect 125 to 150 net new U.S. stores in 2026. Management noted this range reflects increased pressure on its pipeline of new stores. During the October 13 call for the quarter, an analyst asked whether fiscal 2027 would bring fewer store openings than fiscal 2026.

The U.S. business is large enough to make this matter. The Domino’s U.S. stores segment recorded $1.61 billion in fiscal 2025, which amounted to 32.6% of company revenue that year. Sales within the segment grew 4.5% from fiscal 2024. The U.S. also matters well beyond that segment. Executives reported that gross margin dollars grew in the supply chain business in the third quarter of 2026, on strong U.S. order count growth. Supply chain stood as the largest segment, accounting for 60.5% of fiscal 2025 revenue. For the company as a whole, management now expects operating income to grow in the mid single digits in 2026, excluding currency effects and one-off gains.

What Has Domino’s Said About Franchisee Profits?

Management has said that pressure on store openings will keep building until franchisee profits move in the right direction. The company is currently working through its budgets and plans to update investors after the fourth quarter.

The chief executive pointed out that store growth followed pretty quickly when franchisee profitability recovered in 2023. The company is highly focused on turning that profitability around again. Management also sees no change in its long-term potential of more than 8,500 U.S. stores.

Executives have acknowledged the direction of the pressure but have declined to say how large it is. They have given no store count for 2027 yet.

When Will Domino’s Give Its 2027 Store Outlook?

Domino’s plans to report fourth-quarter results early in 2027, when management expects to give that update. The key figure to watch will be the outlook for net new U.S. stores in 2027, measured against how many stores the company added in 2026.

Does This Mean You Should Act On DPZ?

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