Kalshi’s $40 Billion Price Tag Rides On Football
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Part of our midterms guide. Start here: what the vote really changes for your money.
Kalshi sued its own regulator to list election contracts, and won. The CFTC dropped its appeal in 2025. So this is Kalshi’s first midterm as the legal, national place to bet on Congress. It leads: about $1.1 billion of the roughly $1.4 billion traded on the midterms has been on Kalshi. But look at what the rest of its business is.
| Kalshi, by the numbers | Value |
|---|---|
| Traded on midterm markets (as of ~Oct 23) | about $1.1 billion |
| Normal daily volume | over $500 million |
| Share of volume from sports | about 80% |
| Valuation in May / latest round (reported) | $22 billion / $40 billion |
The midterm is two good days. Sports is the other 363.
All the midterm trading so far adds up to about two days of normal Kalshi volume. Elections built Kalshi’s name. Sports built its valuation.
See more lines: the valuation and the sports share
Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation, led by Coatue (reported; May 2026). The Information reported on Oct 29 that it raised about $1 billion at $40 billion, led by Sequoia and Wellington (reported). A possible IPO as early as 2027 has been floated (reported). Sports share: Bank of America put it at about 79% in April; other estimates vary (reported). Two days = $1.1B ÷ $0.5B per day (estimate; the daily figure is from spring 2026).
Is Kalshi Worth More Than The Sportsbooks?
On paper, yes. Even May’s $22 billion is about twice DraftKings‘ value today, $10.4 billion. At a reported $40 billion, it is worth more than DraftKings and Flutter, FanDuel’s owner, put together: about $25 billion. Over the past 12 months, DraftKings fell 31% and Flutter 64%. Investors think the money is moving from sportsbooks to prediction markets. That’s the bet behind Kalshi’s price, and it’s a bet on sports, not elections.
So What Does Tuesday’s Result Mean For Kalshi?
The volume spike is small and short. In 2024, election volume collapsed the day after the vote. The result matters more, through one question: can states regulate sports contracts?
The fight is already big. Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi in March. Nevada is enforcing a ban on its sports contracts. Appeals courts have split: the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi, the Sixth and Ninth with the states. New Jersey asked the Supreme Court to settle it in September. On the other side, the CFTC and the Justice Department have sued states to keep these markets under federal rules.
A Democratic Congress can’t change that alone. A bill from Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis would bar sports contracts on federal exchanges, but it can’t pass past a veto. What Democrats can do is hold hearings. Donald Trump Jr. is a strategic adviser to Kalshi. Expect questions about that. The real decider is the Supreme Court, possibly by mid-2027.
Here’s the lesson in Flutter’s 64% drop: a business can be great and the stock can still get crushed when a new rival or a new rule shows up. For families with $1 million or more invested, no single theme should be able to do that to the whole portfolio. A Trefis partner firm can help you check yours.
How Do You Get Exposure To Kalshi?
Kalshi is private. The public ways in are the companies that sell its contracts to their customers.
| Partner | Link to Kalshi | 12-month return | Market value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Robinhood (HOOD) | Routes event-contract orders to Kalshi; $173M event-contract revenue in Q3 | −38% | $76B |
| Coinbase (COIN) | Sells Kalshi contracts in all 50 states | −56% | $38B |
Neither is a clean bet on Kalshi. Robinhood is the bigger one: event contracts were about 12% of its Q3 revenue, and its customers traded a record 16.4 billion contracts. But Robinhood is also building its own exchange, Rothera, with Susquehanna; it passed $100 million in annualized revenue in its first full quarter. Kalshi’s biggest distributor is becoming a rival. Coinbase’s drop is mostly about crypto, not prediction markets.
The cleaner way to own the theme is the losing side’s mirror: the sportsbooks. If the Supreme Court sides with the states, Kalshi’s sports business shrinks and DraftKings and Flutter would likely gain. If it sides with Kalshi, the reverse.
Tuesday is a good week for Kalshi. The Supreme Court is its year. The midterm adds about two days of volume, and the drop after will look like 2024’s. A Democratic House brings hearings, not a ban. Kalshi’s reported $40 billion price rests on sports, and the states vs federal fight decides it.
For the whole category, see What’s Happening With Prediction Markets?
What Would A Bad Year Cost You?
Elections change the odds, not your plan. If you have $1 million or more invested, see what Tuesday means for your portfolio in a free 15-minute call with a Trefis partner firm.
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