How Will Danaher Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Danaher (NYSE:DHR) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. The company has $144 billion in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $25 billion, and it was operationally profitable with $4.8 billion in operating profits and net income of $3.7 billion. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
See earnings reaction history of all stocks
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Danaher’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 55% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 42% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 11 positive returns = 0.8%, and median of the 9 negative returns = -1.9%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 4/21/2026 | -5.4% | -8.0% | -12.0% |
| 1/12/2026 | 0.3% | -1.0% | -7.8% |
| 10/21/2025 | -1.2% | -1.8% | 0.7% |
| 7/22/2025 | 4.2% | 8.9% | 11.3% |
| 4/22/2025 | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% |
| 1/13/2025 | -0.9% | 1.8% | -15.7% |
| 10/22/2024 | -2.0% | -7.1% | -10.8% |
| 7/23/2024 | 0.6% | 4.2% | 2.6% |
| 4/23/2024 | -1.1% | -2.6% | 5.6% |
| 1/8/2024 | -1.7% | -3.5% | 5.0% |
| 10/24/2023 | -2.1% | -2.4% | 12.4% |
| 7/25/2023 | 3.6% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| 4/25/2023 | 0.2% | 4.7% | -1.8% |
| 1/9/2023 | 4.6% | 7.8% | 2.7% |
| 10/20/2022 | 0.6% | 2.1% | 7.2% |
| 7/21/2022 | -1.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% |
| 4/21/2022 | -4.9% | -7.6% | -9.5% |
| 1/11/2022 | 0.8% | -4.8% | -3.6% |
| 10/21/2021 | 0.8% | -2.0% | 1.1% |
| 7/22/2021 | 0.8% | 3.0% | 11.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| # Negative | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 0.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.9% | -2.6% | -8.7% |
| Max Positive | 4.6% | 8.9% | 12.4% |
| Max Negative | -5.4% | -8.0% | -15.7% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 37.9% | -1.5% | -28.2% |
| 3Y History | 54.3% | -2.0% | -30.4% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. The pricing-in can even begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Danaher stock compared with the stock performance of its peer, ABT, that reported earnings just before Danaher. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| DHR Earnings Dates | DHR | ABT |
| 4/21/2026 | -5.4% | -2.9% |
| 10/21/2025 | -1.2% | -1.5% |
| 7/22/2025 | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| 4/22/2025 | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| 10/22/2024 | -2.0% | -1.4% |
| 7/23/2024 | 0.6% | 3.8% |
| 4/23/2024 | -1.1% | 1.6% |
| 10/24/2023 | -2.1% | -0.8% |
| 7/25/2023 | 3.6% | 1.0% |
| 4/25/2023 | 0.2% | -2.1% |
| 10/20/2022 | 0.6% | -3.0% |
| 7/21/2022 | -1.9% | 2.3% |
| 4/21/2022 | -4.9% | 0.6% |
| 10/21/2021 | 0.8% | 1.4% |
| CORRELATION | 9.3% |
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