How Will DoorDash Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
DoorDash (NASDAQ:DASH) is set to report its earnings on Wednesday, May 6, 2026. The company has $75 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $14 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $725 Mil in operating profits and net income of $935 Mil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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DoorDash’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 20 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 60% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 6.7%, and median of the 8 negative returns = -7.5%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/18/2026 | 1.6% | -0.2% | -8.1% |
| 11/5/2025 | -17.5% | -17.4% | -5.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 5.0% | -1.5% | -4.4% |
| 5/6/2025 | -7.4% | -6.5% | 7.2% |
| 2/11/2025 | 4.0% | 10.4% | -7.7% |
| 10/30/2024 | 0.9% | 9.3% | 16.3% |
| 8/1/2024 | 8.3% | 15.3% | 19.0% |
| 5/1/2024 | -10.3% | -11.3% | -13.6% |
| 2/15/2024 | -8.1% | -3.6% | 2.6% |
| 11/1/2023 | 15.7% | 15.0% | 27.2% |
| 8/2/2023 | -0.6% | -4.2% | -2.2% |
| 5/4/2023 | 0.1% | 7.0% | 10.4% |
| 2/16/2023 | -7.6% | -17.6% | -11.3% |
| 11/3/2022 | 8.3% | 24.9% | 11.8% |
| 8/4/2022 | -1.3% | -4.3% | -28.4% |
| 5/5/2022 | -1.4% | -10.3% | -4.4% |
| 2/16/2022 | 10.7% | 5.8% | 13.1% |
| 11/9/2021 | 11.6% | 22.2% | -14.1% |
| 8/12/2021 | 3.5% | -3.3% | 10.9% |
| 5/13/2021 | 22.1% | 18.6% | 37.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 9 | 10 |
| # Negative | 8 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 6.7% | 15.0% | 12.4% |
| Median Negative | -7.5% | -4.3% | -7.9% |
| Max Positive | 22.1% | 24.9% | 37.5% |
| Max Negative | -17.5% | -17.6% | -28.4% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 8.0% | -11.0% | -20.5% |
| 3Y History | -20.2% | -27.7% | -25.2% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of DoorDash stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before DoorDash. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| DASH Earnings Dates | DASH | AMZN |
| 2/18/2026 | 1.6% | -8.0% |
| 11/5/2025 | -17.5% | 12.3% |
| 8/6/2025 | 5.0% | -5.0% |
| 5/6/2025 | -7.4% | -2.7% |
| 2/11/2025 | 4.0% | -2.5% |
| 5/1/2024 | -10.3% | 2.3% |
| 2/15/2024 | -8.1% | 6.6% |
| 11/1/2023 | 15.7% | 14.6% |
| 5/4/2023 | 0.1% | -5.3% |
| 2/16/2023 | -7.6% | -13.1% |
| 11/3/2022 | 8.3% | -19.5% |
| 8/4/2022 | -1.3% | 16.6% |
| 5/5/2022 | -1.4% | -19.5% |
| 2/16/2022 | 10.7% | 13.9% |
| 11/9/2021 | 11.6% | 3.8% |
| 8/12/2021 | 3.5% | -8.2% |
| CORRELATION | -25.0% |
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