Can Celestica Stock Rally 40% After This Dip?
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Shares of Celestica (CLS) closed at $254.03 on November 12, putting them 28.9% below their October 13 close. A fall that fast tempts buyers. A 40% rally is within the stock’s own past: within a year of its earlier drops, the best price was a median 40.5% above the dip-day price. So how often did those earlier drops leave Celestica’s shares higher a year later, and what did buyers sit through first?
How Have Celestica’s Past Drops Turned Out?
Most of Celestica’s past drops ended with the shares higher a year later. The stock has fallen more than 20% in about six weeks on 15 occasions since 2010. Eleven of those drops have a full year behind them. The shares were higher a year on after nine of them, and across all eleven the median gain was 30.0%. Four drops, including one on October 23 during this fall, are too recent to judge.
Collecting that gain usually meant sitting through more losses first. In the year following a typical drop, the lowest close was a median 9.6% below the price on the day of the drop. The best price arrived a median 355 days later, close to a full year. May 2019 was the hardest case: the shares fell as far as 59.3% below that day’s price and were still 14.0% lower a year on.
| Time after a past dip | Past dips with that much time after them | Median CLS price change |
|---|---|---|
| 21 trading days | 14 | 4.0% |
| 63 trading days | 14 | 7.5% |
| 126 trading days | 13 | 22.0% |
| 252 trading days | 11 | 30.0% |
| Dip date | Fall to dip date (CLS / SPY) | 1 year later | Best in that year (days to it) | Worst in that year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | -25.0% / -1.0% | – | – | – |
| 2026-07-15 | -21.5% / 0% | – | – | – |
| 2026-03-11 | -20.2% / -3.0% | – | – | – |
| 2025-12-18 | -23.2% / 0% | – | – | – |
| 2025-03-04 | -20.4% / -3.0% | 198.0% | 290.8% (246 days) | -26.7% |
| 2024-08-07 | -20.3% / -5.0% | 380.0% | 379.9% (370 days) | -7.8% |
| 2022-09-22 | -22.4% / -11.0% | 160.0% | 172.9% (355 days) | -6.4% |
| 2020-10-30 | -23.6% / -1.0% | 74.0% | 74.3% (367 days) | 0% |
| 2020-02-27 | -21.7% / -9.0% | 25.0% | 40.5% (347 days) | -57.1% |
| 2019-05-20 | -20.6% / -2.0% | -14.0% | 31.5% (255 days) | -59.3% |
| 2016-01-28 | -22.1% / -6.0% | 71.0% | 71.0% (365 days) | 0% |
| 2014-08-05 | -20.3% / -2.0% | 30.0% | 31.9% (358 days) | -8.0% |
| 2012-05-15 | -22.6% / -6.0% | 22.0% | 22.5% (367 days) | -9.6% |
| 2011-06-17 | -25.0% / -5.0% | -6.0% | 25.6% (272 days) | -14.7% |
| 2010-05-24 | -20.3% / -10.0% | 14.0% | 37.7% (282 days) | -13.7% |
| Median of 11 complete years | – | 30.0% | 40.5% (355 days) | -9.6% |
Is Celestica’s Business Still Growing Fast?
It remains on a rapid growth trajectory. Revenue reached $5.83 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, rising 82.5% from a year earlier. Management said ramping volumes in hyperscale and AI compute lifted its compute and storage sales. Looking ahead, management expects $40 billion of revenue in 2027, which it put at a 90% increase on its 2026 outlook, and said hyperscaler customers are making longer-term commitments.
Cash from the business has kept pace with sales. Operations brought in $1.41 billion over the four quarters to September 2026, compared with $0.552 billion a year earlier. Celestica held $3.96 billion of cash and short-term investments at September 30, 2026, against $0.819 billion of debt. At the November 12 close, buyers paid 24.6 times the past twelve months’ earnings. That compares with a multiple of 21.9 for the S&P 500, marking a modest premium for a company growing this fast.
Celestica Plans A Net Use Of Cash In 2027
Celestica is spending heavily on manufacturing capacity and inventory. During its October 27 call, management cut its 2026 free cash flow outlook to $460 million from $600 million, citing working capital to support faster growth in 2027. The company plans $1.5 billion to $2 billion of capital spending in 2027 and expects a net use of cash for that year.
Management said the $3.5 billion of equity it raised in August should be enough to cover those needs, and it aims to return to positive cash flow in 2028. Sales also come from a narrow group of buyers: three customers each made up 10% or more of revenue in fiscal Q3 2026, with the largest of them accounting for 35%.
Buying now asks you to believe that a company growing this fast can fund a year of heavy spending, and that the shares follow the pattern of most of Celestica’s past drops. Celestica’s free cash flow for 2026, weighed against management’s lowered outlook, is the number to watch when the company reports its fourth quarter.
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