What Will Decide Broadcom Stock Performance Over The Next Six Months?
Broadcom (AVGO) stock has returned about 8% over the past twelve months through October 5, 2026, well short of the S&P 500’s 16%. The stock has lagged despite management’s promises. On the September 2, 2026 call, management said it expects AI chip revenue to double again in fiscal 2027. The next six months will start to show whether that happens. Below are the events most likely to move Broadcom stock over that time.
| What to watch | When | Which way it cuts |
|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA reports its quarter, a read on demand for AI chips | expected on or around November 18, 2026 | Either way |
| Broadcom reports fiscal Q4 2026 results against its forecast of $21.7 billion in AI chip revenue | expected on or around December 9, 2026 | Either way |
| Non-GAAP gross margin for fiscal Q4 2026, which management expects to slip to about 73% as AI chips become more of the mix | fiscal Q4 2026 | Against the stock |
| Management’s outlook for AI chip revenue to double to about $115 billion in fiscal 2027 | fiscal 2027 | In its favor |
| The size of Broadcom’s loans and guarantees for one custom-chip customer | no date stated | Against the stock |
AI Chip Sales In Broadcom’s December Report
Broadcom is expected to report its fiscal Q4 2026 results on or around December 9, 2026, after the market closes. This report matters most because AI chips now make up most of what Broadcom sells: they accounted for 56% of total revenue in fiscal Q3 2026. Management forecast AI chip revenue of $21.7 billion for fiscal Q4 2026, up from the $16.7 billion it reported for fiscal Q3. So look at the AI chip figure first. AI chip revenue below $21.7 billion would be a miss against management’s own forecast.
Broadcom’s Plan To Double AI Chip Revenue
Management expects AI chip revenue to double to approximately $115 billion in fiscal 2027. That is more than the $89.1 billion the whole company sold over the past twelve months. Management said on the September 2, 2026 call that it has secured the supply.
Management also called the land, power, and buildings that customers need for data centers a big concern, and said its outlook already allows for them. It said it would raise the outlook if circumstances change. So watch for any change to the $115 billion figure.
Broadcom’s Financing For A Chip Customer
One customer stands out in Broadcom’s plan: management said it is on track to become Broadcom’s largest custom-chip customer in 2027. Broadcom is also helping that customer pay for its chips, and the terms are still coming out. Reuters reported on October 1, 2026, that Broadcom agreed to provide Anthropic with up to $42 billion in financing, citing Anthropic’s IPO prospectus.
Before that report, on the September 2, 2026 call, management had described a financing platform in which outside partners, Blackstone among them, fund the equipment. It said Broadcom may, where necessary, add modest residual value guarantees, which are promises about what the equipment will be worth later. Management views them as low risk. Broadcom has put numbers on two pieces. Its 10-Q for the quarter ended August 2, 2026 puts its maximum potential liability under the lease backstop for the first $35 billion tranche at about $29 billion, and separately discloses a convertible note facility of up to $42 billion, the same figure Reuters reported. It has not given a combined figure, and on the September 2 call management said it could not give an overall maximum for future deals. A total limit from Broadcom, across loans and guarantees, would show how much of its own money is tied to one customer.
How Much Has Broadcom Stock Moved Around Earnings?
Broadcom stock fell 3.4% over the two days around the September 2, 2026 call, 13.0% around the June 3, 2026 call, and 12.8% around the December 11, 2025 call. It rose 6.0% around the March 4, 2026 call. The June drop was the start of a larger one: the stock lost 29.5% from June 2 to September 15, 2026.
So the December report and any news on that financing could each move the stock sharply. Holding through these dates makes sense only at a size where a repeat of that larger fall would not force you to sell.
How To Act On AVGO?
Now you know AVGO better. And that’s our purpose: to make you informed before you invest your money. However, making a bet on a single stock carries its own risks.
There is a smarter choice. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has beaten the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking.
If you’d rather act on AVGO itself:
| Play Offense | Play Defense |
|---|---|
| Learn More About AVGO & Invest | Save Taxes On Capital Gains |
| Earn From AVGO Cash Secured Puts | Covered Call Against AVGO |