When AMD’s CEO and the Chart Say the Same Thing, Pay Attention
On August 4, 2026, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) guided third-quarter revenue to about $13 billion, above its $11.2 billion second-quarter guide. AMD stock has gained 25.4% since the August 3 close, the day before that release, against 0.9% for the S&P 500. Many rallies have no new company numbers behind them, so one backed by a higher forecast is worth a look. Below we look at AMD’s new guidance, its share price trend, and what could lift the stock further.
AMD’s New Revenue Guidance Is Higher
AMD’s revenue guide for the third quarter is 16.1% higher than its guide for the second quarter. The new guide is also about 13% above the revenue AMD reported for the second quarter. The full revenue guide is about $13 billion, plus or minus $300 million. It is a forecast for a new quarter, not a change to an earlier forecast.
Management tied the higher guide to two segments, data center and embedded. It expects both to grow by strong double digits from the second quarter. It expects a modest decline in client and gaming. It is also planning for a softer PC market in the second half of 2026.
Data center is already AMD’s largest business. In the second quarter, its growth came from higher sales of EPYC server processors.
Neither guided figure, revenue or gross margin, moved lower. AMD guided third-quarter adjusted gross margin to about 56%, the same as its guide for the second quarter. Gross margin is the share of revenue left after the cost of making the chips.
What We See In AMD’s Chart
AMD’s chart shows an uptrend that is still intact. At its September 29 close, AMD stock was 19.4% above its 50-day average. That average is the average closing price over the last 50 trading days.
The 50-day average is itself above the 200-day average. That longer average uses the last 200 trading days. A price above both, with the shorter average on top, is what an intact uptrend means.
AMD reported after the close on August 4. The stock fell 7.0% the next day, from $518.58 to $482.05. That undid a 7.0% gain on August 4, so over the two sessions from the August 3 close it slipped 0.5% while the S&P 500 rose 1.6%.
The gains came afterward. From the end of those two sessions through September 29, AMD shares climbed 26.0%, while the S&P 500 lost 0.7%. So management’s numbers and the chart now line up, though the stock got there in the weeks after the release.
Is There Room Left To Run For AMD Stock?
Possibly, if AMD keeps meeting management’s numbers in the two quarters of 2026 still to be reported. In the second quarter, it did. Second-quarter revenue came in at a record $11.5 billion, ahead of management’s guide.
Management said initial shipments of Helios, its AI platform, were on track to begin later in the third quarter. The next report should show whether they did. Further out, management expects data center revenue to more than double in 2027.
Supply is one limit for now. Management said on the August 4 call that its server processor supply chain was tight. At 154.1 times AMD’s past year of earnings, against 21.9 for the S&P 500, you pay for growth still ahead.
AMD has to deliver third-quarter revenue inside its guided range in its next report. A result near the top of that range, with data center growth still strong, would support further gains. A result below the range would leave the rally without the numbers behind it. On the chart, a close below the 50-day average would mean the uptrend is no longer intact.
How To Act On AMD?
Before you decide on AMD, consider a better choice. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has beaten the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with retail stock picking.
If you’d rather act on AMD itself:
| Play Offense | Play Defense |
|---|---|
| Learn More About AMD & Invest | Save Taxes On Capital Gain |
| Earn From AMD Cash Secured Puts | Covered Call Against AMD |