Management Guided Higher For Applied Materials Stock; Does The Chart Agree?

Applied Materials (AMAT) guided next-quarter revenue higher on August 13, 2026, and its stock has fallen more than the S&P 500 since. A higher outlook beside a stock that has fallen since is a mismatch, which is why the chart is worth checking first. So does the chart agree with the higher outlook management gave for Applied Materials stock?

Applied Materials’ Chart Shows Uptrend But Incomplete Recovery

Partly. Applied Materials stock closed at $511.38 on September 30, 2026, above both of its main averages. The 50-day average is the average closing price over the last 50 trading days. The price is 4.8% above it.

The 200-day average is the same measure over 200 trading days. The price is 20.6% above it. The 50-day average is above the 200-day average too, which is the pattern of an uptrend.

Applied Materials stock is still lower than before the release, though. It has lost 4.3% since the August 13 close, the last before the release, against a 2.0% loss for the S&P 500. All of that loss, and a little more, came in the next session.

The stock fell 5.1% on August 14 while the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%. Investors priced the whole release in that move, the reported quarter and the outlook together. The uptrend is intact, but the stock has won back only a little of what it lost on the release.

Applied Materials Expects A Bigger Fiscal Fourth Quarter

Applied Materials guided revenue higher for its fiscal fourth quarter of 2026. Management expects $10.25 billion, plus or minus $500 million. Its guide for the fiscal third quarter had been $8.95 billion, so the new midpoint is 14.5% higher. The fourth-quarter guide is the first outlook for that quarter and replaces no earlier forecast.

Management pointed to demand from customers. It said in the fiscal third-quarter 2026 call that customers have found new ways to address clean room space constraints. Those customers have significantly increased their demand for tool deliveries and now want more tools delivered in 2026.

Nothing in the release was guided lower, but gross margin did not move up with revenue. Management guided non-GAAP gross margin at approximately 50.4%. That margin is the adjusted share of revenue left after production costs. The third quarter’s actual figure was the same. Management cited ramp costs built into its forecast.

What Could Lift Or Stall Applied Materials Stock?

Applied Materials stock could rise if fourth-quarter revenue tops the $10.25 billion midpoint. That midpoint is above the record $9.1 billion reported for the third quarter. Management expects quarter-over-quarter growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 but gave no guide for it.

DRAM chips and advanced packaging are among the areas where management expects particularly strong growth. DRAM revenue, which includes some packaging, grew 52% from a year earlier in the third quarter. Packaging revenue should grow more than 70% in calendar 2026, on management’s forecast.

For 2027, clean room space is the limit on shipments. Management said its availability will determine what can be shipped that year.

The uptrend would no longer be intact if the stock closes below its 50-day average. That average was $487.82 on September 30, about $24 below the closing price.

The stock could move higher if the fourth quarter beats the guide, or if DRAM and packaging grow faster than management expects. A fourth quarter that falls short could put the uptrend at risk. As of the September 30 close, Applied Materials stock is in an uptrend but still below its price before the release.

Does This Mean You Should Act On AMAT?

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