American Airlines (NYSE:AAL) Available Seat Miles – which is a measure of an airline’s passenger-carrying capacity – declined from around 285 billion in 2019 to about 143 billion in 2020 although it recovered to about 215 billion in 2021. Trefis expects the metric to rise to over 300 billion by 2023.
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While the metric plummeted in 2020, due to the impact of Covid-19, we expect longer-term growth to be driven by expanding operations and improving demand following the easing of travel restrictions.
We think the projected recovery is more than priced into AAL stock. We value AAL at about $15 per share, 15% below the current market price.
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|S&P 500 Return||-4%||-9%||94%|
|Trefis MS Portfolio Return||-2%||-11%||251%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/22/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016