SpaceX (SPCX) Last Update 8/5/26
Related: CAT BA LMT GLW
% of Stock Price
Revenue
Gross Profits
Free Cash Flow
SpaceX
STOCK PRICE
DIVISION
% of STOCK PRICE
Connectivity
36.4%
$32.10
Space
36.0%
$31.71
AI
19.1%
$16.79
TOTAL
100%
$88.07
$88.07
Yours
Trefis Price
N/A
$138
Market
 
Top Drivers for Period
Key Drivers
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TREFIS Analysis


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RECENT NEWS AND ANALYSIS

Potential upside & downside to trefis price

SpaceX Company

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

  1. Connectivity constitutes 36% of the Trefis price estimate for SpaceX's stock.
  2. Space constitutes 36% of the Trefis price estimate for SpaceX's stock.
  3. AI constitutes 19% of the Trefis price estimate for SpaceX's stock.

WHAT HAS CHANGED?

Latest Earnings: Q2 FY'26

SpaceX reported Q2 FY'26 total revenue of $7.8 billion, representing a 92% year-over-year increase from $4.1 billion in Q2 FY'25. Diluted EPS came in at -$0.09, as total net loss narrowed to $541 million compared to a net loss of $1.0 billion in the prior-year period. Top-line expansion was primarily driven by Connectivity revenue surging 66% year-over-year to $4.3 billion behind rapid Starlink subscriber growth, alongside $2.56 billion generated by the AI infrastructure segment.

Note: SpaceX's FY'25 ended on December 31, 2025. Q2 FY'26 ended on June 30, 2026.

Public Market Debut and Starshield Defense Contracts

Following its mid-2026 initial public offering, SpaceX reported securing over $6 billion in multi-year U.S. government contract awards for Starshield, its secure satellite communications and sensing network designed for national security applications. The company also advanced Starship V3 flight testing, positioning its heavy-lift launch architecture to dramatically expand satellite deployment capacity and reduce orbital transport costs.

POTENTIAL UPSIDE & DOWNSIDE TO TREFIS PRICE

Below are key drivers of SpaceX's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate:

Starlink Connectivity Segment


  • Global Subscriber Expansion: Starlink subscribers reached 12.0 million at the end of Q2 FY'26, up 100% year-over-year, while maintaining a steady ARPU of $66 per month. Accelerated rollout of consumer and commercial terminals offers upside to Trefis estimates, though capacity constraints in high-density urban markets remain a downside risk.

  • Enterprise and Government Revenue Acceleration: Enterprise and government Connectivity revenues surged 108% year-over-year to $1.8 billion, supported by new aviation deals and defense deployments. Expanding high-margin commercial fleet agreements presents upside, while potential delays in government contract rollouts pose downside risks.

For additional details, select a division from the interactive Trefis split for SpaceX at the top of the page.

BUSINESS SUMMARY

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) designs, manufactures, and launches advanced rockets, spacecraft, and global satellite communications networks. The company operates through three core business segments: Space for commercial, civil, and defense launch services via Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, and Starship; Connectivity for Starlink satellite internet services serving residential, commercial, enterprise, and defense users; and AI Infrastructure for high-performance computing capabilities.

SOURCES OF VALUE

Starlink connectivity and commercial launch market dominance represent the primary operational engines driving company valuation.

Dominance in Reusable Orbital Launch Architecture

SpaceX maintains a near-monopoly position in commercial launch services, utilizing reusability across its Falcon rocket fleet to deliver unparalleled flight cadences and cost structures relative to legacy defense contractors.

High-Margin Recurring Cash Flows from Starlink

Starlink provides scalable satellite broadband to millions of worldwide subscribers, generating expanding operational profits that help fund long-term research and development for deep-space transport.

Starshield Defense Contracts and Institutional Backlog

Multi-billion-dollar military and national security contracts for the Starshield platform establish highly predictable long-term revenue streams backed by federal defense budgets.

KEY TRENDS

Direct-to-Cell Telecommunications and Global Spectrum Assets

Strategic partnerships with international telecom operators to provide direct-to-cell satellite connectivity expand Starlink's total addressable market directly to unmodified mobile smartphones.

Starship Operational Scaling and Orbital Reusability

Continued development of the fully reusable Starship launch vehicle aims to exponentially decrease per-kilogram payload launch costs, enabling mass deployment of next-generation V3 Starlink satellites.

Expansion into Artificial Intelligence and Compute Infrastructure

Capital investments into dedicated AI infrastructure leverage SpaceX's power and connectivity assets to create a third high-growth business unit serving enterprise AI workloads.