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(1) Revenues expected to be well ahead of consensus estimates
Trefis estimates SIRI's Q3 2021 revenues to be $2.12 Bil, well ahead of the consensus estimate of $2.01 Bil
Estimated Revenues - 2021Q3(E)
Trefis Estimates for Sirius XM Revenues:
Expected Change (YoY): 4.9%
The chart to the right highlights trends in Sirius XM's Revenues over the last four quarters along with our forecast for Q3 2021.
Quarterly Revenue Trend
(2) EPS likely to comfortably beat consensus estimates
SIRI's Q3 2021 earnings per share (EPS) expected to be $0.09 per Trefis analysis, comfortably beating the consensus estimate of $0.06 by 50%
Estimated EPS- 2021Q3(E)
Trefis Estimates for Sirius XM EPS:
Expected Change (YoY): 46.2%
The chart to the right highlights trends in SIRI's EPS over the last four quarters along with our forecast for Q3 2021.
Quarterly EPS Trend
(3) Stock price estimate 16% higher than current market price
Trefis maintains a fair value of $7 for SIRI's stock as opposed to the current market price of roughly $6.
SIRI Stock Price
The Trefis Price Estimate for Sirius XM stock represents the fair value for the company's stock over a one-year horizon.
Details about the chances of a rise in SIRI stock in the near term can be found in a separate interactive dashboard.
The chart to the right highlights trends in SIRI's stock price at the end of each of the last four quarters as well as the current stock price.
Stock Price (Quarter End)
#1. Estimating Sirius XM's Total Revenues:
Sirius XM's Revenues have seen a substantial increase of 39.3% from around $5.8 Bil in FY2018 to $8.0 Bil in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $8.6 Bil in FY2021
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On Sirius XM's Revenues Details How The Company Makes Money.
#2. Deriving Sirius XM's Net Income:
Sirius XM's Net Income has decreased from around $1.2 Bil in FY2018 to $131 Mil in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $1.1 Bil in FY2021
This change is likely to be led by higher revenues and improved margins.
A Separate Interactive Dashboard Analysis On Sirius XM's Margins Highlights The Company's Various Expenses Components In Detail.
Net Income [AxB]
Net Income Margin [A]
Total Revenue [B]
#3. Determining Sirius XM's EPS:
Sirius XM's EPS has decreased from $0.26 in FY2018 to $0.03 in FY2020 and we expect it to increase to $0.25 in FY2021
The change in EPS can be attributed to an increase in net income and a higher expected share count due to equity issuances.
Net Income [A]
Shares Outstanding [B]
#4. Estimating Sirius XM's Share Price:
Our Price Estimate of $7 For Sirius XM's Stock is based on our Detailed Valuation Model, and implies a 27.7x P/E Multiple on expected FY2021 EPS of $0.25
Trefis Price Estimate [AxB]
P/E Multiple [B]