Tearsheet

Meta Platforms (META)


Market Price (6/17/2026): $597.6 | Market Cap: $1.5 TrilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Meta Platforms (META)


Market Price (6/17/2026): $597.6
Market Cap: $1.5 Tril
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 124 Bil, FCF LTM is 48 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 67 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, and Metaverse & Immersive Technologies. Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -21%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.1x

Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%

Key risks
META key risks include [1] antitrust litigation threatening the forced divestiture of key assets like Instagram and WhatsApp, Show more.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 124 Bil, FCF LTM is 48 Bil
3 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 67 Bil
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 36%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, and Metaverse & Immersive Technologies. Show more.
6 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -21%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.1x
8 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
9 Key risks
META key risks include [1] antitrust litigation threatening the forced divestiture of key assets like Instagram and WhatsApp, Show more.

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 6/16/2026

Meta Platforms (META) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Significantly increased capital expenditure guidance for AI infrastructure dampened investor sentiment. Meta Platforms raised its full-year fiscal 2026 capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance to a range of $125 billion to $145 billion, up from a previous range of $115 billion to $135 billion. This substantial increase, announced with fiscal Q1 2026 results on April 29, 2026, was driven by expectations for higher component pricing and additional data center costs to support future AI capacity. Despite strong Q1 2026 revenue of $56.31 billion, which exceeded analyst estimates, the aggressive spending plans overshadowed the positive earnings, leading to concerns about compressed free cash flow and a shift from the company's historically asset-light business model.

2. Regulatory setbacks in the European Union contributed to investor skepticism. On June 3, 2026, Meta Platforms faced a legal setback when its challenge against the EU's classification of its Messenger app as a "gatekeeper" under the Digital Markets Act failed. This ruling subjects Messenger to enhanced regulatory requirements, potentially impacting operational flexibility and advertising revenue. Additionally, European regulatory bodies mandated Meta to open its WhatsApp platform to competing AI chatbots amidst an antitrust investigation, risking operational constraints and further penalties. These developments fueled investor doubts regarding the company's ability to navigate increasing global regulatory scrutiny.

Show more
Updated on 6/16/2026

Meta Platforms (META) stock has lost about 5% since 2/28/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Significantly increased capital expenditure guidance for AI infrastructure dampened investor sentiment. Meta Platforms raised its full-year fiscal 2026 capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance to a range of $125 billion to $145 billion, up from a previous range of $115 billion to $135 billion. This substantial increase, announced with fiscal Q1 2026 results on April 29, 2026, was driven by expectations for higher component pricing and additional data center costs to support future AI capacity. Despite strong Q1 2026 revenue of $56.31 billion, which exceeded analyst estimates, the aggressive spending plans overshadowed the positive earnings, leading to concerns about compressed free cash flow and a shift from the company's historically asset-light business model.

2. Regulatory setbacks in the European Union contributed to investor skepticism. On June 3, 2026, Meta Platforms faced a legal setback when its challenge against the EU's classification of its Messenger app as a "gatekeeper" under the Digital Markets Act failed. This ruling subjects Messenger to enhanced regulatory requirements, potentially impacting operational flexibility and advertising revenue. Additionally, European regulatory bodies mandated Meta to open its WhatsApp platform to competing AI chatbots amidst an antitrust investigation, risking operational constraints and further penalties. These developments fueled investor doubts regarding the company's ability to navigate increasing global regulatory scrutiny.

3. Broader macroeconomic headwinds, including rising inflation and interest rate concerns, weighed on tech stock valuations. The first fiscal quarter of 2026 saw increased market volatility, partly due to geopolitical tensions such as the U.S./Iran war, which caused oil prices to surge and reignited fears of inflation. May 2026 saw inflation reach 4.2%, its highest in three years, contributing to fears that the Federal Reserve might increase interest rates. This "risk-off" sentiment in the market led investors to rotate away from higher-beta growth stocks, like Meta, towards more defensive assets, impacting the broader technology sector.

4. A significant reduction in share buybacks redirected capital from shareholders towards AI investments. In fiscal Q1 2026, Meta Platforms repurchased no Class A shares, a stark contrast to the $12.8 billion in buybacks during fiscal Q1 2025 and $26.3 billion for the full fiscal year 2025. This cessation of share repurchases, driven by the redirection of capital towards the aforementioned AI infrastructure investments, was perceived by some as weakening the company's shareholder value proposition. Concurrently, Chief Financial Officer Susan J Li executed an insider sale of 11,322 shares for approximately $6.9 million on May 19, 2026.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -7.2% change in META stock from 2/28/2026 to 6/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)22820266162026Change
Stock Price ($)647.03600.21-7.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)200,965214,9627.0%
Net Income Margin (%)30.1%32.8%9.2%
P/E Multiple27.021.5-20.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2,5242,534-0.4%
Cumulative Contribution-7.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

2/28/2026 to 6/16/2026
ReturnCorrelation
META-7.2% 
Market (SPY)9.7%60.3%
Sector (XLC)-4.6%55.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The -7.1% change in META stock from 11/30/2025 to 6/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -22.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)113020256162026Change
Stock Price ($)646.27600.21-7.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)189,457214,96213.5%
Net Income Margin (%)30.9%32.8%6.3%
P/E Multiple27.821.5-22.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2,5172,534-0.7%
Cumulative Contribution-7.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

11/30/2025 to 6/16/2026
ReturnCorrelation
META-7.1% 
Market (SPY)10.4%51.8%
Sector (XLC)-2.0%62.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The -6.9% change in META stock from 5/31/2025 to 6/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -16.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)53120256162026Change
Stock Price ($)644.88600.21-6.9%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)170,359214,96226.2%
Net Income Margin (%)39.1%32.8%-16.0%
P/E Multiple24.521.5-11.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2,5272,534-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution-6.9%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2025 to 6/16/2026
ReturnCorrelation
META-6.9% 
Market (SPY)28.8%50.6%
Sector (XLC)12.1%61.8%

Fundamental Drivers

The 128.7% change in META stock from 5/31/2023 to 6/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 83.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)53120236162026Change
Stock Price ($)262.42600.21128.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)117,346214,96283.2%
Net Income Margin (%)18.3%32.8%79.7%
P/E Multiple31.721.5-31.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2,5872,5342.1%
Cumulative Contribution128.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

5/31/2023 to 6/16/2026
ReturnCorrelation
META128.7% 
Market (SPY)86.6%61.1%
Sector (XLC)86.5%74.7%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
META Return23%-64%194%66%13%-10%119%
Peers Return14%-46%68%7%10%-8%12%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%101%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
META Win Rate67%33%92%67%42%50% 
Peers Win Rate58%30%68%57%53%40% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
META Max Drawdown-20%-74%-13%-18%-34%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-54%-23%-29%-33%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, SNAP, PINS. See META Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 6/16/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventMETAS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-31.1%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven45.1%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven64 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-15.2%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven17.9%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven21 days18 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-71.1%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven245.7%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven389 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-32.9%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.0%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven65 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-23.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.9%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven38 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-11.0%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven12.3%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven25 days6 days

Compare to GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, SNAP, PINS

In The Past

Meta Platforms's stock fell -31.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 45.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventMETAS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-31.1%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven45.1%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven64 days79 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-71.1%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven245.7%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven389 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-32.9%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.0%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven65 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-23.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.9%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven38 days105 days

Compare to GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, SNAP, PINS

In The Past

Meta Platforms's stock fell -31.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 45.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Meta Platforms (META)

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) is a global technology company dedicated to connecting people worldwide through its suite of digital products. Its core business operates under the Family of Apps segment, which includes highly popular social media and messaging platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp. These applications enable billions of users across mobile devices, personal computers, and in-home devices to share photos and videos, communicate via messages and calls, discover content, and engage with friends, family, and businesses globally.

Beyond its established social networks, Meta is also significantly investing in the future of digital interaction through its Reality Labs segment. This division focuses on developing augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR) related products, encompassing virtual reality hardware, software, and content. The aim of Reality Labs is to create immersive experiences that enhance connection, positioning Meta as a leader in building foundational technologies for the metaverse.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Meta Platforms:

  • Meta is like Google for social networking and communication.
  • Meta is like Apple for virtual reality hardware and experiences.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Facebook: A social networking platform enabling sharing, discovery, and connection among users.
  • Instagram: A social media platform primarily for sharing photos, videos, and private messages.
  • Messenger: A messaging application facilitating connections with friends, family, groups, and businesses.
  • WhatsApp: A secure messaging application used for private communication and transactions by individuals and businesses.
  • Augmented and Virtual Reality (AR/VR) Products: Hardware, software, and content designed to create immersive experiences that foster connection.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Meta Platforms primarily serves individuals and businesses leveraging its platforms to connect with individuals. Based on the provided company description, its major customers can be categorized as follows:

  1. General Social Media Users: This category includes individuals worldwide who utilize Meta's Family of Apps such as Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp to connect with friends and family, share content, discover interests, and engage in social interactions.
  2. Virtual Reality & Augmented Reality Consumers: These are individuals who purchase and engage with products from Meta's Reality Labs segment, including virtual reality hardware (e.g., headsets), software, and content, to experience immersive virtual and augmented environments.
  3. Small Businesses and Entrepreneurs: This category encompasses businesses and individual entrepreneurs who leverage Meta's platforms, particularly Messenger and WhatsApp, for communication, customer engagement, and private transactions with their own customers. They also utilize features like Instagram Shops to conduct e-commerce.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Qualcomm (QCOM)
  • Intel (INTC)
  • AMD (AMD)
  • Nvidia (NVDA)
  • Arista Networks (ANET)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Mark Zuckerberg, Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Mark Zuckerberg is the founder, chairman, and CEO of Meta, which he originally founded as Facebook in 2004. He is responsible for setting the company's overall direction and product strategy. Zuckerberg studied computer science at Harvard University before dropping out to focus on the company's growth. In his early life, he developed programs like "ZuckNet" at age twelve and a music player called "Synapse Media Player" in high school, which used machine learning to learn user habits. He is also the co-CEO of the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, a philanthropic organization.

Susan Li, Chief Financial Officer

Susan Li is the chief financial officer at Meta, a role she assumed in 2022. She leads the finance and facilities teams and is instrumental in developing and implementing Meta's financial strategy. Li joined Facebook (now Meta) in 2008, initially focusing on finance and business planning, and played a significant role in projects including revenue planning and the company's IPO. Before joining Meta, she worked as an investment banking analyst at Morgan Stanley from 2005 to 2008. Born in China, she immigrated to the U.S. at age two, entered high school at 11, and college at 15, starting her professional career at Morgan Stanley at 19.

Javier Olivan, Chief Operating Officer

Javier Olivan serves as Chief Operating Officer at Meta, a position he took in August 2022, succeeding Sheryl Sandberg. He oversees the company's business teams, product infrastructure, and operational strategy across all Meta apps. Olivan joined Facebook's growth team in 2007. Prior to Meta, he worked as a research and development engineer at Siemens and later for NTT Data, and was a product manager at Siemens Mobile. He holds an MBA from Stanford University and master's degrees in electrical and industrial engineering from the University of Navarra.

Andrew Bosworth, Chief Technology Officer

Andrew "Boz" Bosworth is Meta's Chief Technology Officer and leads the Reality Labs division, a role he assumed in January 2022. He joined Facebook in 2006 as one of its first engineers, where he helped develop foundational features like the News Feed and early anti-abuse systems. Bosworth also co-invented Messenger and Groups. He met Mark Zuckerberg at Harvard University, where he was a teaching assistant in an artificial intelligence class, and later worked as a developer for Microsoft Visio before joining Facebook.

Chris Cox, Chief Product Officer

Chris Cox is the Chief Product Officer at Meta, responsible for leading its apps and technologies. He joined Facebook in 2005 as one of its initial software engineers and was instrumental in building the first versions of key Facebook features, including the News Feed. Cox has held various executive roles, including director of human resources and vice president of product, before being promoted to Chief Product Officer in 2014, and again in 2020. He studied symbolic systems with a concentration in artificial intelligence at Stanford University.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Key Risks to Meta Platforms (META)

  1. Regulatory and Antitrust Scrutiny: Meta Platforms faces significant and ongoing regulatory pressure and antitrust investigations globally. This risk stems from its market dominance in social networking, its data privacy practices, and its past acquisitions (e.g., Instagram, WhatsApp). Governments and regulatory bodies worldwide are scrutinizing Meta's business practices, content moderation policies, and potential anti-competitive behavior. Such scrutiny could lead to substantial fines, forced divestitures of key assets, restrictions on future acquisitions, or changes to its operating model, all of which could materially impact its financial performance and strategic flexibility.
  2. Intense Competition for User Engagement and Advertising Revenue: Meta's core business relies heavily on maintaining a large, engaged user base across its Family of Apps (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp) to attract advertisers. The company faces fierce competition from established social media platforms, emerging rivals, and new digital services, particularly for younger audiences. The rise of platforms like TikTok, which specializes in short-form video content, directly competes for user attention and advertising spending, potentially leading to declining engagement or slower user growth on Meta's platforms.
  3. Dependence on Advertising Revenue and Impact of Platform Changes: Meta's financial success is overwhelmingly reliant on advertising revenue generated from its Family of Apps segment. This dependence makes the company vulnerable to shifts in advertiser spending, economic downturns, and changes to third-party platform policies. For instance, Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) framework significantly impacted Meta's ability to target ads effectively and measure campaign performance, leading to substantial revenue losses. Similar future policy changes by operating system providers or web browsers could further restrict Meta's data collection and targeting capabilities, directly affecting its primary revenue source. Additionally, the substantial and ongoing investments in the Reality Labs segment, which is currently generating significant operating losses, place further pressure on the profitability of the advertising business.
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AI Analysis | Feedback

1. **Apple's entry into the high-end mixed reality market with Vision Pro:** This directly competes with Meta's Reality Labs segment, particularly its virtual and augmented reality hardware and software initiatives. Apple's strong ecosystem, brand loyalty, and technological capabilities pose a significant threat to Meta's ambitions in the metaverse space, similar to how the iPhone disrupted Research in Motion's BlackBerry.

2. **Continued market share gains and innovation from TikTok:** While not a new entrant, TikTok's sustained and growing dominance in short-form video content and user engagement, especially among younger demographics, continues to pose a significant competitive threat to Meta's Family of Apps, particularly Instagram and Facebook. Its innovative recommendation algorithms and content formats force Meta to constantly adapt and develop competing features like Reels, diverting resources and challenging its core user base and advertising revenue.

3. **Platform policy changes by operating system providers (e.g., Apple's App Tracking Transparency):** Changes to privacy policies and data tracking restrictions imposed by powerful platform owners like Apple (and potentially Google) significantly impact Meta's ability to collect data for targeted advertising across its Family of Apps. This directly threatens its primary revenue model, forcing Meta to re-architect its advertising technology and potentially diminishing its ad effectiveness, which could lead to lower ad spend from advertisers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Meta Platforms (symbol: META) operates in several large addressable markets globally through its Family of Apps and Reality Labs segments.

Family of Apps

  • The global social media market was valued at approximately USD 238.56 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 499.04 billion by 2030. Other estimates place the global social media market size at USD 218.03 billion in 2023, anticipated to exceed USD 815.78 billion by 2033. Furthermore, the social networking market is expected to increase from USD 180.5 billion in 2025 to USD 411.27 billion by 2031.
  • The global instant messaging app market was valued at USD 28.62 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 47.51 billion by 2034. Another estimate indicates the global instant messaging app market was valued at US$ 28.62 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach US$ 40.22 billion by 2032. Separately, the global messaging platform market was estimated at USD 98.7 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 218.4 billion by 2034.

Reality Labs

  • The global augmented reality (AR) market was valued at USD 77.30 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1,127.94 billion by 2032. Other reports show the worldwide Augmented Reality (AR) market size valued at US$35.8 billion in 2024, projected to grow to US$233.3 billion by 2030. Additionally, the global AR market size was estimated at USD 120.21 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1,050.56 billion by 2033.
  • The global virtual reality (VR) market was valued at approximately USD 44.4 billion. It was estimated at USD 36.13 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 284.04 billion by 2034. Another source states the global virtual reality (VR) market size was valued at USD 20.83 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 171.33 billion by 2034.
  • The global metaverse market size was valued at USD 1,273.58 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow from USD 2,114.25 billion in 2026 to USD 10,808.57 billion by 2034. Another estimate suggests the global metaverse market size was valued at USD 180.8 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 2,609.5 billion by 2034. Additionally, the global metaverse market size was estimated at USD 105,396.5 million (approximately USD 105.40 billion) in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 936,574.7 million (approximately USD 936.57 billion) by 2030.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Meta Platforms (META) over the next 2-3 years:

Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Meta Platforms (META)

  1. AI Integration and Enhanced Ad Performance in Family of Apps: Meta is deeply integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) across its core applications, including Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp, to improve user experience and create new avenues for monetization. AI-powered ad optimization systems are crucial for driving higher engagement, extending session times, and increasing monetizable content per user by more effectively matching commercial intent with advertising content. This strategy aims to boost both ad impressions and the average price per ad.
  2. Monetization of WhatsApp and Growth of Threads: The company is actively working to monetize WhatsApp, a platform with significant untapped potential, particularly through its WhatsApp Business services. Additionally, Threads, Meta's newer platform, has rapidly gained a substantial user base and is expanding its advertising offerings, thereby opening up new revenue streams.
  3. Expansion of Reality Labs with Wearables and Metaverse Advancement: Meta is making substantial long-term investments in its Reality Labs segment, with a strategic focus on advancing the metaverse and developing next-generation virtual reality (VR) and mixed reality (MR) devices and social platforms. While this segment currently incurs significant losses, it is considered a foundational element for Meta's future growth, with a specific emphasis on "glasses and wearables." For instance, sales of Ray-Ban Meta AI glasses have more than tripled.
  4. International Advertising Revenue Growth and User Base Expansion: Meta continues to see robust growth in advertising revenue from international markets, with notable year-over-year increases in regions such as Rest of World, Asia Pacific, and Europe. The company's strategy involves expanding into new international markets and tailoring its offerings to local preferences, which is expected to broaden its user base and revenue potential. Increasing user engagement across established platforms like Instagram and Facebook, along with the development and scaling of new products like Threads and Meta AI, is vital for attracting new advertisers and maintaining a competitive edge. Instagram is highlighted as a fast-growing revenue driver, benefiting from strong user engagement through features like Reels and improved content recommendations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Meta Platforms repurchased $20.03 billion in shares during 2023.
  • In February 2024, Meta authorized an additional $50 billion for share repurchases.
  • For the full year 2025, Meta Platforms repurchased $26.26 billion of its Class A common stock.

Share Issuance

  • Meta's shares outstanding have been declining annually, with a 1.53% decrease in 2025 to 2.574 billion shares, and a 0.57% decrease in 2024 to 2.614 billion shares, reflecting the impact of share repurchases.

Outbound Investments

  • Meta has pursued an aggressive acquisition strategy since 2020, focusing on virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.
  • Notable acquisitions include Unit 2 Games in 2021 for game creation, presize.ai and Luxexcel in 2022 for body scanning technology and 3D printing optical components respectively, and Moltbook in 2025 as an AI networking platform.
  • Meta's long-term investments increased significantly in 2025, reaching $27.524 billion, a 353.44% increase from 2024.

Capital Expenditures

  • Meta's capital expenditures were $27.266 billion in 2023, $37.256 billion in 2024, and $72.22 billion for the full year 2025.
  • The company anticipates its 2026 capital expenditures to be in the range of $115-135 billion.
  • These capital expenditures are primarily focused on expanding data center and GPU capacity to support Meta Superintelligence Labs efforts and the core business's AI initiatives.

Better Bets vs. Meta Platforms (META)

Recent Active Movers

Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

METAGOOGLAMZNMSFTSNAPPINSMedian
NameMeta Pla.Alphabet Amazon.c.MicrosoftSnap Pinterest 
Mkt Price600.21373.25246.00393.835.1621.16309.62
Mkt Cap1,520.94,516.02,642.82,924.68.713.52,081.9
Rev LTM214,962422,499742,776318,2736,0974,374266,618
Op Inc LTM88,593138,12985,422148,957-41332287,008
FCF LTM48,25364,429-2,47272,9166091,20724,730
FCF 3Y Avg50,10169,47421,34670,95229197635,724
CFO LTM124,000174,353148,531170,1418311,249136,266
CFO 3Y Avg98,823138,013120,527136,9914971,002109,675

Growth & Margins

METAGOOGLAMZNMSFTSNAPPINSMedian
NameMeta Pla.Alphabet Amazon.c.MicrosoftSnap Pinterest 
Rev Chg LTM26.2%17.5%14.2%17.9%10.3%16.3%16.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg22.4%14.1%12.3%15.3%10.5%15.6%14.7%
Rev Chg Q33.1%21.8%16.6%18.3%12.1%17.8%18.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM7.0%4.9%3.6%4.2%2.8%3.6%3.9%
Op Inc Chg LTM21.2%17.5%19.2%22.0%36.3%62.1%21.6%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg50.4%24.3%108.4%20.7%32.4%131.1%41.4%
Op Mgn LTM41.2%32.7%11.5%46.8%-6.8%7.4%22.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg40.5%31.5%10.2%45.6%-15.6%4.9%20.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%2.2%-0.2%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM57.7%41.3%20.0%53.5%13.6%28.5%34.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg55.9%37.3%18.1%49.5%8.7%26.3%31.8%
FCF/Rev LTM22.4%15.2%-0.3%22.9%10.0%27.6%18.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg29.3%19.3%3.5%26.1%4.9%25.7%22.5%

Valuation

METAGOOGLAMZNMSFTSNAPPINSMedian
NameMeta Pla.Alphabet Amazon.c.MicrosoftSnap Pinterest 
Mkt Cap1,520.94,516.02,642.82,924.68.713.52,081.9
P/S7.110.73.69.21.43.15.3
P/Op Inc17.232.730.919.6-21.141.825.3
P/EBIT16.823.122.418.6-32.241.820.5
P/E21.528.229.123.4-21.240.325.8
P/CFO12.325.917.817.210.510.814.7
Total Yield5.0%3.8%3.4%5.2%-4.7%2.5%3.6%
Dividend Yield0.4%0.2%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.6%3.2%1.1%2.5%3.2%6.0%3.2%
D/E0.10.00.10.00.50.10.1
Net D/E0.0-0.00.0-0.00.2-0.0-0.0

Returns

METAGOOGLAMZNMSFTSNAPPINSMedian
NameMeta Pla.Alphabet Amazon.c.MicrosoftSnap Pinterest 
1M Rtn-2.2%-5.9%-6.9%-6.5%-6.7%8.7%-6.2%
3M Rtn-3.5%20.1%14.3%-1.2%11.0%14.0%12.5%
6M Rtn-8.5%21.9%10.5%-17.0%-30.0%-17.9%-12.7%
12M Rtn-14.2%111.8%13.8%-17.1%-37.6%-39.9%-15.7%
3Y Rtn115.5%204.8%96.0%17.8%-51.7%-16.6%56.9%
1M Excs Rtn-3.6%-7.3%-8.3%-7.8%-8.1%7.3%-7.6%
3M Excs Rtn-15.4%8.3%2.5%-13.0%-0.9%2.2%0.6%
6M Excs Rtn-16.6%10.8%-1.3%-27.4%-39.4%-28.6%-22.0%
12M Excs Rtn-37.4%88.6%-9.7%-42.1%-60.7%-63.1%-39.8%
3Y Excs Rtn53.8%133.3%24.6%-51.4%-123.6%-86.1%-13.4%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Family of Apps198,759162,355133,006114,450115,655
Reality Labs2,2072,1461,8962,1592,274
Total200,966164,501134,902116,609117,929


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Family of Apps102,46987,10962,87142,66156,946
Reality Labs-19,193-17,729-16,120-13,717-10,193
Total83,27669,38046,75128,94446,753


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$600.21 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1,520.9 
First Trading Date05/18/2012 
Distance from 52W High-23.8% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$622.20$655.32
DMA Trenddownindeterminate
Distance from DMA-3.5%-8.4%
 3M1YR
Volatility42.7%35.8%
Downside Capture133.16146.02
Upside Capture68.5188.69
Correlation (SPY)59.3%50.7%
META Betas & Captures as of 5/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta0.321.281.751.521.501.46
Up Beta0.971.972.231.551.871.55
Down Beta2.331.572.542.081.831.42
Up Capture8%68%99%115%103%337%
Bmk +ve Days13283667141432
Stock +ve Days12253665126397
Down Capture-99%81%162%143%133%108%
Bmk -ve Days7132757109318
Stock -ve Days8162759124352

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with META
META-11.8%35.8%-0.29-
Sector ETF (XLC)10.9%13.2%0.5361.6%
Equity (SPY)27.2%12.4%1.6650.6%
Gold (GLD)25.8%27.4%0.8213.5%
Commodities (DBC)23.3%18.9%0.98-12.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.6%13.5%0.699.1%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-37.7%42.4%-1.0016.7%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with META
META12.9%44.0%0.42-
Sector ETF (XLC)8.3%20.6%0.3281.1%
Equity (SPY)13.8%17.1%0.6361.8%
Gold (GLD)17.6%18.2%0.785.7%
Commodities (DBC)7.8%19.4%0.304.4%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.5%18.8%0.0432.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)12.1%54.2%0.4223.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with META
META17.8%38.7%0.55-
Sector ETF (XLC)9.3%22.2%0.4881.2%
Equity (SPY)15.4%18.0%0.7361.5%
Gold (GLD)12.8%16.1%0.665.9%
Commodities (DBC)6.2%18.0%0.2713.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.7%0.2335.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)60.7%66.8%1.0016.4%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date5292026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity32.3 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 51520260.4%
Average Daily Volume14.8 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.2 days
Basic Shares Quantity2,534.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/2/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/29/2026-8.6%-8.4%-5.5%
1/28/202610.4%0.0%-3.1%
10/29/2025-11.3%-15.4%-14.7%
7/30/202511.3%11.0%8.0%
4/30/20254.2%8.7%17.9%
1/29/20251.6%4.2%-1.2%
10/30/2024-4.1%-3.3%-3.0%
7/31/20244.8%3.0%9.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121511
# Negative12913
Median Positive9.3%5.3%12.9%
Median Negative-5.8%-8.4%-4.0%
Max Positive23.3%27.7%26.3%
Max Negative-26.4%-30.3%-38.1%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/29/2026-8.6%-8.4%-5.5%
1/28/202610.4%0.0%-3.1%
10/29/2025-11.3%-15.4%-14.7%
7/30/202511.3%11.0%8.0%
4/30/20254.2%8.7%17.9%
1/29/20251.6%4.2%-1.2%
10/30/2024-4.1%-3.3%-3.0%
7/31/20244.8%3.0%9.1%
4/24/2024-10.6%-11.0%-5.6%
2/1/202420.3%19.1%26.3%
10/25/2023-3.7%4.1%12.9%
7/26/20234.4%5.3%-4.0%
4/26/202313.9%13.2%20.7%
2/1/202323.3%19.8%21.0%
10/26/2022-24.6%-30.3%-14.2%
7/27/2022-5.2%-0.5%-0.5%
4/27/202217.6%27.7%9.5%
2/2/2022-26.4%-28.2%-38.1%
10/25/2021-3.9%0.4%2.6%
7/28/2021-4.0%-3.8%-2.4%
4/28/20217.3%2.6%8.4%
1/27/2021-2.6%-2.0%-5.3%
10/29/2020-6.3%4.9%-1.4%
7/30/20208.2%13.1%25.2%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121511
# Negative12913
Median Positive9.3%5.3%12.9%
Median Negative-5.8%-8.4%-4.0%
Max Positive23.3%27.7%26.3%
Max Negative-26.4%-30.3%-38.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202501/29/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202401/30/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202404/25/202410-Q
12/31/202302/02/202410-K
09/30/202310/26/202310-Q
06/30/202307/27/202310-Q
03/31/202304/27/202310-Q
12/31/202202/02/202310-K
09/30/202210/27/202210-Q
06/30/202207/28/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202501/29/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202401/30/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202404/25/202410-Q
12/31/202302/02/202410-K
09/30/202310/26/202310-Q
06/30/202307/27/202310-Q
03/31/202304/27/202310-Q
12/31/202202/02/202310-K
09/30/202210/27/202210-Q
06/30/202207/28/202210-Q
03/31/202204/28/202210-Q
12/31/202102/03/202210-K
09/30/202110/26/202110-Q
06/30/202107/29/202110-Q
03/31/202104/29/202110-Q
12/31/202001/28/202110-K
09/30/202010/30/202010-Q
06/30/202007/31/202010-Q
03/31/202004/30/202010-Q
12/31/201901/30/202010-K
09/30/201910/31/201910-Q
06/30/201907/25/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 5/31/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Revenue58.00 Bil59.50 Bil61.00 Bil8.2% Higher NewGuidance: 55.00 Bil for Q1 2026
2026 Total Expenses162.00 Bil165.50 Bil169.00 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 165.50 Bil for 2026
2026 Capital Expenditures125.00 Bil135.00 Bil145.00 Bil8.0% RaisedGuidance: 125.00 Bil for 2026
2026 Tax Rate13.0%14.5%16.0%0 AffirmedGuidance: 14.5% for 2026

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Revenue53.50 Bil55.00 Bil56.50 Bil-4.4% Lower NewGuidance: 57.50 Bil for Q4 2025
2026 Total Expenses162.00 Bil165.50 Bil169.00 Bil41.4% Higher NewActual: 117.00 Bil for 2025
2026 Capital Expenditures115.00 Bil125.00 Bil135.00 Bil76.1% Higher NewActual: 71.00 Bil for 2025
2026 Tax Rate13.0%14.5%16.0%7.4% Higher NewActual: 13.5% for Q4 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 6/3/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell6032026629.29504317,1622,481,290Form
2Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell6032026629.29837526,7168,171,960Form
3Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell6032026629.298251,6024,600,110Form
4Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell6032026629.295735,8701,313,328Form
5Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell6032026629.298251,6024,600,110Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell6032026629.29504317,1622,481,290Form
2Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell6032026629.29837526,7168,171,960Form
3Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell6032026629.298251,6024,600,110Form
4Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell6032026629.295735,8701,313,328Form
5Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell6032026629.298251,6024,600,110Form
6Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell6032026629.29408256,75052,838,335Form
7Mahoney, Curtis JChief Legal OfficerDirectSell5292026609.922,0791,268,024681,891Form
8Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell5282026608.98837509,7168,417,931Form
9Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell5282026608.988249,9364,501,580Form
10Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell5282026608.985734,7121,305,653Form
11Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell5282026608.988249,9364,501,580Form
12Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell5282026608.98408248,46451,381,470Form
13Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell5192026609.35837510,0268,933,071Form
14Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell5192026609.358249,9674,554,282Form
15Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell5192026609.355734,7331,341,179Form
16Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell5192026609.358249,9674,554,282Form
17Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell5192026609.35408248,61551,661,302Form
18Bosworth, AndrewChief Technology OfficerDirectSell5192026607.837,8474,769,642251,642Form
19Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell5192026607.849,1955,589,1338,015,041Form
20Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell5192026618.432,1271,315,4019,490,427Form
21Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell5132026604.57926559,8324,143,118Form
22Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell5132026604.578249,5754,568,131Form
23Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell5132026604.575734,4601,365,119Form
24Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell5132026604.578249,5754,568,131Form
25Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell5132026604.57408246,66551,502,714Form
26Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell5062026607.74926562,7674,727,609Form
27Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell5062026607.748249,8354,641,918Form
28Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell5062026607.745734,6411,406,918Form
29Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell5062026607.748249,8354,641,918Form
30Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell5062026607.74408247,95852,020,721Form
31Alford, PeggyAlford Family Revocable TrustSell5052026614.53409251,3431,661,689Form
32Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell4292026670.84926621,1985,839,662Form
33Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell4292026670.848255,0095,178,885Form
34Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell4292026670.845738,2381,591,232Form
35Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell4292026670.848255,0095,178,885Form
36Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell4292026670.84408273,70357,695,594Form
37Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell4222026680.09926629,7636,549,947Form
38Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell4222026680.098255,7675,306,062Form
39Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell4222026680.095738,7651,651,939Form
40Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell4222026680.098255,7675,306,062Form
41Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell4222026680.09408277,47758,768,617Form
42Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell4172026667.00580386,8602,565,949Form
43Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell4152026629.452,7781,748,5996,645,054Form
44Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell4152026629.53246154,8644,963,215Form
45Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell4152026629.53171107,6501,565,012Form
46Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell4152026629.53246154,8644,963,215Form
47Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell4152026629.561,224770,58254,659,050Form
48Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell3252026605.38926560,5828,072,742Form
49Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell3252026605.388249,6414,921,739Form
50Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell3252026605.385734,5071,608,495Form
51Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell3252026605.388249,6414,921,739Form
52Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell3252026605.38408246,99553,300,682Form
53Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell3182026632.02580366,5722,797,953Form
54Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell3182026632.02926585,2519,013,237Form
55Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell3182026632.028251,8265,190,148Form
56Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell3182026632.025736,0251,715,302Form
57Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell3182026632.028251,8265,190,148Form
58Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell3182026632.02408257,86455,904,065Form
59Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell3112026634.94926587,9549,642,834Form
60Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell3112026634.948252,0655,266,192Form
61Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell3112026634.945736,1921,759,419Form
62Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell3112026634.948252,0655,266,192Form
63Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell3112026634.94408259,05656,421,403Form
64Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerLi-Hegeman Family FoundationSell3032026644.7056,571  Form
65Alford, PeggyAlford Family Revocable TrustSell2272026643.00392252,0562,001,659Form
66Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell2262026633.6155,70235,293,1758,354,741Form
67Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell2252026652.68926604,38211,121,015Form
68Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell2252026652.688253,5205,520,367Form
69Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell2252026652.685737,2031,882,982Form
70Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell2252026652.688253,5205,520,367Form
71Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell2252026652.68408266,29358,530,384Form
72Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell2242026650.0018,78912,212,85044,777,200Form
73Bosworth, AndrewChief Technology OfficerDirectSell2202026631.248,0895,106,0821,793,346Form
74Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell2182026639.18172109,93911,482,869Form
75Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell2182026639.188252,4135,458,597Form
76Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell2182026639.185736,4331,880,468Form
77Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell2182026639.188252,4135,458,597Form
78Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell2182026639.18408260,78557,580,530Form
79Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell2182026639.776,4184,106,04446,924,570Form
80Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell2182026639.772,4611,574,4747,746,335Form
81Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell2112026663.19517342,8696,033,703Form
82Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell2042026714.60517369,4486,870,879Form
83Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell1282026665.00517343,8056,737,780Form
84Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell1222026608.35517314,5176,478,319Form
85Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell1202026618.28580358,6023,454,330Form
86Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell1142026653.00517337,6017,291,398Form
87Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell12302025658.69519341,86018,876,738Form
88Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell12302025658.14517340,2588,029,308Form
89Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell12232025659.38519342,21819,238,730Form
90Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell12232025661.11517341,7948,407,336Form
91Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell12182025643.23519333,83619,101,358Form
92Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell12172025646.00517333,9828,549,164Form
93Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell12172025646.00580374,6803,983,882Form
94Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell12112025664.16519344,69920,067,594Form
95Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell12102025669.63517346,1999,208,082Form
96Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell12042025642.22519333,31219,737,989Form
97Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell12032025639.03517330,3799,117,706Form
98Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell11262025624.14519323,92919,506,247Form
99Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell11262025598.54517309,4458,849,414Form
100Bosworth, AndrewChief Technology OfficerDirectSell11202025593.3111,6906,935,7431,432,833Form
101Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell11202025591.60519307,04020,487,700Form
102Anderson, AaronChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell11202025591.60726429,5023,570,306Form
103Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell11192025609.35600365,6104,476,894Form
104Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell11182025604.23517312,3869,245,905Form
105Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell11182025609.462,6101,590,6915,962,957Form
106Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell11182025609.466,8754,190,03853,857,980Form
107Bosworth, AndrewChief Technology OfficerDirectSell11182025609.465,0633,085,6964,227,215Form
108Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell11122025631.00517326,2274,369,044Form
109Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell11122025631.00516325,59616,860,951Form
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META Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)

CONVICTION RATIONALE

The stock earns a '7 - ACCUMULATE' rating. The core investment thesis is strong, with a widening competitive moat driven by a superior AI engine that is actively taking market share. The market's negative reaction to the necessary, thesis-supporting CapEx increase has created an attractive risk/reward profile. While the scale of the investment introduces execution risk, the current operational momentum and widening moat justify accumulating a position on this weakness.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Quality Compounder / Stalwart

Meta's core Family of Apps is a high-margin, high-ROIC, dominant business with significant pricing power and network effects, fitting the Stalwart archetype. However, it is using the profits from this core business to fund a massive, aggressive pivot into AI, giving it a secondary 'Transition / Profit Pivot' characteristic.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
AI-Driven Ad Engine Market Share Consolidation

The primary driver for Meta is the superior performance of its AI-powered advertising engine (Advantage+), which is delivering higher Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) in a privacy-degraded world. This is enabling Meta to take significant market share from its primary competitor, Google, and sustain a powerful combination of both impression volume growth and pricing power.

Mechanism: By leveraging its vast first-party user data, Meta's AI models create more effective ad targeting and conversion predictions, leading to higher advertiser ROI. This superior performance attracts a greater share of advertising budgets, driving a flywheel of accelerating revenue growth that funds further AI infrastructure investment, widening its competitive moat.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Family of Apps revenue accelerated to +33% YoY in Q1 2026.
  • Meta is forecasted to grow ad revenue by 24.1% in 2026, more than double Google's 11.9% rate.
  • Q1 2026 showed a balanced and powerful mix of Ad Impressions growth (+19% YoY) and Average Price per Ad growth (+12% YoY), indicating both high demand and pricing power.
  • The company is massively reinvesting in its AI advantage, with a 2026 CapEx budget of up to $145 billion.
PRIMARY RISK
AI Infrastructure Capital Expenditure 'Digestion' & ROI Uncertainty

The single biggest weight on the stock is the market's fear of a value-destructive capital allocation cycle, similar to the initial metaverse push. The significantly increased 2026 CapEx guidance (to $125B-$145B) creates uncertainty about near-term free cash flow and the ultimate return on this massive investment, causing the stock to de-rate despite stellar operational results.

Mechanism: If the massive AI infrastructure spend does not translate into sustained, high-margin revenue growth, or if costs spiral without a clear monetization path, it will lead to significant margin compression and a loss of investor confidence in management's capital allocation strategy. The market punished the stock by ~10% post-earnings on this fear alone.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Full-year 2026 CapEx guidance was raised significantly to $125-$145 billion, pressuring near-term FCF.
  • The stock fell nearly 10% post-Q1 earnings despite a significant revenue and EPS beat, directly attributed to the CapEx increase.
  • Reality Labs continues to be a major drag, with a $4.03B operating loss in Q1 2026, serving as a precedent for large, unprofitable investments.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Threshold Rationale
Family of Apps Revenue Growth YoY> +20%This is the primary indicator that the core profit engine is healthy and that AI investments are yielding a return, funding the entire enterprise.
Average Price per Ad Growth YoY> +10%This directly measures monetization efficiency and pricing power. Continued strength proves that AI tools are improving ad performance, which is the cornerstone of the alpha thesis.
Full-Year CapEx GuidanceStable at $125B-$145BThe primary friction is the fear of runaway spending. Any further upward revision without a concurrent, massive revenue acceleration would confirm the market's fears and trigger the downside scenario.
Core Investment Debate

The AI Capex vs. Revenue ROI Gap

BULL VIEW

The $125B-$145B CapEx is a necessary investment to widen its AI moat, driving sustained >25% revenue growth and consolidating the ad market from weaker rivals like Google.

CORE TENSION

Bulls see massive CapEx as fuel for market share gains. Bears see a value-destructive spending cycle with uncertain ROI, similar to the initial metaverse push.


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
NEUTRAL

The stock fell nearly 10% post-Q1 earnings despite a massive revenue beat, proving the Bearish CapEx narrative currently outweighs the Bullish operational results in setting the price.

BEAR VIEW

This spending level pressures near-term FCF and risks significant margin compression if the AI investments do not yield commensurate high-margin revenue growth, breaking the investment thesis.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Late July 2026
FY26 Q2 Earnings Call
Watch: Full-Year CapEx Guidance. Watch for stability vs. the current $125B-$145B range that caused an -8.6% drop last quarter.
Late October 2026
FY26 Q3 Earnings Call
Watch: Family of Apps Revenue Growth YoY. Watch for deceleration from Q1's +33% pace.
H2 2026
EU Digital Services Act (DSA) Final Ruling
Watch: Headline announcement of the final fine amount, which can be up to 6% of global turnover.
Ongoing (H2 2026)
AI Supply Chain Update
Watch: Commentary from TSMC, Nvidia, or Meta itself on advanced AI chip availability and data center buildout timelines.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2025-11-20
Court Rules in Favor of Meta in FTC Case
Details: A court ruled in favor of Meta in the FTC's antitrust lawsuit regarding its acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp. This positive catalyst occurred just prior to the 6-month window.
-0.20%
$589.33 -> $588.16
2026-01-15
FTC Files Notice to Appeal Antitrust Ruling
Details: The FTC officially filed to appeal the November 2025 court ruling favoring Meta's ownership of Instagram and WhatsApp. The stock reaction was muted, treating it as ongoing news.
+0.86%
$614.99 -> $620.26
2026-01-29
Q4 2025 Earnings Report
Details: Stock surged after reporting strong results. Ad Impressions grew +18% YoY and Average Price per Ad increased +6% YoY, signaling continued strength in the core ad business.
+10.41%
$668.15 -> $737.67
2026-04-15
Scam Ad Class-Action Lawsuit Filed
Details: A lawsuit was filed alleging Meta knowingly profited from scam advertisements. The market had a muted positive reaction on the day, suggesting the risk was not immediately priced in.
+1.37%
$662.49 -> $671.58
2026-04-29
Q1 2026 Earnings & EU DSA Probe
Details: Family of Apps revenue surged +33% YoY. Ad impressions grew +19%, price per ad +12%. Despite the beat, stock plummeted after raising full-year CapEx guidance to $125B-$145B.
-8.55%
$669.12 -> $611.91
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4%-6%

NORMAL

Volatility is moderate but spiking. While the widening moat is compelling, the NEUTRAL sentiment and premium valuation prevent an aggressive stance. Capped at Normal (4-6%).

Diversification Alternatives
GOOGL
INDUSTRY

A more diversified and mature digital advertising play with a fortress balance sheet, dominance in Search, and a strong cloud segment. Avoids Meta's level of CapEx intensity.

Core Thesis: Owns the high-intent search advertising market, a durable and profitable business funding growth initiatives in Cloud and AI without the same narrative risk as Meta's hardware ventures.
TTD
SECTOR

A pure-play on the secular growth of programmatic advertising, particularly in CTV. It is an independent platform that benefits from ad spend moving outside of walled gardens like Meta.

Core Thesis: As the leading independent demand-side platform, TTD offers advertisers a transparent way to buy across the open internet, a durable trend accelerated by privacy changes.
How Is The Market Pricing META?

Meta is evolving from a pure-play social media advertising giant into a personal superintelligence company, funding the world's most aggressive AI infrastructure buildout with its highly profitable, AI-enhanced core ad business.

Filter all news through the lens of AI capital expenditure ROI: is the massive spending translating into superior ad monetization, user engagement, and tangible progress in Reality Labs?

What will confirm the thesis

Ad impressions and price-per-ad growth both >+10% YoY, driven by AI ranking models. Daily Active People (DAP) count remains stable or growing despite massive scale. Evidence of AI glasses or next-gen Quest hardware gaining mainstream traction. Any commentary on AI reducing the cost of serving impressions.

What will damage the thesis

Deceleration in ad revenue growth below +15% YoY. Sustained declines in Family Daily Active People. Further increases to the $125B-$145B capex guidance without corresponding revenue acceleration. Significant regulatory actions in the US or EU that materially impact ad targeting capabilities.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Quarterly fluctuations in Reality Labs revenue - the operating loss is the key metric. Short-term user fluctuations due to specific geopolitical events. Competitive announcements of new AI models without evidence of scaled user adoption.

Repricing Catalyst

The market is currently weighing Meta's aggressive $125-$145 billion capital expenditure plan for 2026. A positive re-rating depends on this AI investment delivering measurable lifts in ad performance (e.g., the 10% lift in Reels time spent on Instagram) and proving a return on investment superior to the multi-billion dollar losses currently sustained by Reality Labs.

What META Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Q1 2026 Earnings PR, Apr 29 2026
Digital Advertising (via Family of Apps)
$220.0B TTM (98.5% of Total) · % Margin
What It Is

Advertising inventory on Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp; includes products like Reels ads, Feed ads, and paid messaging on WhatsApp.

Who Pays & How

Millions of advertisers, from small businesses to large corporations, pay to reach a targeted audience of over 3.5 billion daily active people to drive sales and brand awareness. The primary lock-in is the network effect and proprietary user data for ad targeting.

Per-impression or per-click auction-based advertising.
Competition
Alphabet (Google) and ByteDance (TikTok)
Google has search intent data; TikTok has a powerful, culturally relevant short-form video algorithm.
Meta's unrivaled global scale with over 3.5 billion daily active users across its family of apps provides a massive network effect and a data advantage in ad targeting that is difficult to replicate.
AR/VR Hardware & Platform (Reality Labs)
$1.6B TTM (1.5% of Total) · % Margin
What It Is

Quest 3 and Quest Pro virtual reality headsets; Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses; Horizon Worlds platform.

Who Pays & How

Consumers pay for hardware (Quest headsets, AI glasses) to access immersive gaming, social, and productivity experiences. Developers pay platform fees to sell software and content.

Per-unit hardware sales and a percentage take-rate on software/content sales on the Quest store.
Competition
Apple (Vision Pro) and Sony (PlayStation VR)
Apple has a premium brand and a strong developer ecosystem. Sony has a captive gaming audience with its PlayStation console.
Meta's moat is its early market lead in the standalone VR headset category and its aggressive pricing strategy to build a large user base and network effect for its Horizon Worlds platform.
META Evolution: Price Return by Era
20042011 · The Social Graph Era
Connecting the World (on Desktop)
Launched in a Harvard dorm room, Facebook rapidly expanded to connect college students and then the entire world. Key developments like the News Feed and the opening of the platform defined the desktop-based social networking era, culminating in massive user growth and setting the stage for its IPO.
20122020 · The Mobile & Ad Empire Era
Shifting to Mobile and Dominating Ads +570% (May 2012 to Dec 2020)
Following a rocky 2012 IPO that was questioned for its mobile strategy, Facebook successfully transitioned its entire business to mobile. The astute acquisitions of Instagram (2012) and WhatsApp (2014) solidified its dominance in mobile social media, building one of the most powerful and profitable digital advertising machines in history. This era also saw increased scrutiny over data privacy and content moderation.
2021Present · The AI & Metaverse Era
Betting Billions on the Next Platform -15% peak-to-trough (Sep 2021  Nov 2022)
In October 2021, the company rebranded to Meta, signaling a pivot to the metaverse. This era is defined by a two-pronged strategy: massive, unprecedented investment in AI to enhance the core ad business and user engagement, and a costly, long-term bet on building the next computing platform through Reality Labs. This has led to huge capital expenditures and a debate over the company's future focus and capital allocation.
Market Appears To Be Skeptical Of Core Thesis
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Lagging the market on the 63D window, but 'relative strength' is beginning to stabilize; watch for inflection. Volume and momentum are deeply bearish. The sustained distribution is evident across multiple volume metrics. Earnings history is mildly supportive. The reaction or drift are positive but not both at full conviction.
① Structure
-3
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+1
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-5 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Potential Bottoming · -
2 Momentum Deteriorating
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Strong Underperformance
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Distribution
5 Volatility Normal
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Falling
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars
Core Cache Last Updated: 6/16/2026