Meta Platforms (META)


Market Price (7/23/2026): $619.64 | Market Cap: $1.6 TrilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Meta Platforms (META)


Market Price (7/23/2026): $619.64
Market Cap: $1.6 Tril
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 124 Bil, FCF LTM is 48 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 67 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, and Metaverse & Immersive Technologies. Show more.

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.4x

Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%

Key risks
META key risks include [1] antitrust litigation threatening the forced divestiture of key assets like Instagram and WhatsApp, Show more.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 26%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 41%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 58%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 124 Bil, FCF LTM is 48 Bil
3 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 67 Bil
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 39%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, and Metaverse & Immersive Technologies. Show more.
6 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 7.4x
7 Significant share based compensation
SBC/Rev LTMShare Based Compensation / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 10%
8 Key risks
META key risks include [1] antitrust litigation threatening the forced divestiture of key assets like Instagram and WhatsApp, Show more.

META in ETFs

Weight = META's share of each fund

SPY2.2%
VOO1.9%
IVV2.2%
VTI1.7%
ITOT2.0%
QQQ3.1%
QQQM3.2%
IWB2.1%
+41 more covered ETFs

Valuation & Metrics

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Updated on 7/22/2026

Meta Platforms (META) stock has gained about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Meta Platforms reported robust financial performance in fiscal Q1 2026, exceeding analyst expectations for both earnings and revenue. The company announced Q1 2026 results on April 29, 2026, posting diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $10.44, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $6.67. Quarterly revenue increased by 33.1% year-over-year to $56.31 billion, also above analyst estimates of $55.56 billion. This strong performance was primarily driven by higher advertising demand and improved monetization across Meta's applications.

2. The core advertising business demonstrated sustained strength, propelled by advancements in AI-driven automation. Advertising revenue reached $55.0 billion in fiscal Q1 2026, marking a 33% year-over-year growth. Market forecasts by WARC Media and eMarketer in May and June 2026 projected Meta's advertising business to grow between 22.3% and 24.1% in 2026, with an expected revenue of $240 billion to $243.5 billion. Notably, eMarketer projected that Meta would surpass Google in global digital ad revenue for the first time in 2026. This growth is largely attributed to Meta's Advantage+ automated ad suite, which leverages machine learning to optimize campaigns and is reported to generate approximately $60 billion in annualized revenue, delivering a 22% higher return compared to manual campaigns.

Show more
Updated on 7/22/2026

Meta Platforms (META) stock has gained about 10% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Meta Platforms reported robust financial performance in fiscal Q1 2026, exceeding analyst expectations for both earnings and revenue. The company announced Q1 2026 results on April 29, 2026, posting diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $10.44, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $6.67. Quarterly revenue increased by 33.1% year-over-year to $56.31 billion, also above analyst estimates of $55.56 billion. This strong performance was primarily driven by higher advertising demand and improved monetization across Meta's applications.

2. The core advertising business demonstrated sustained strength, propelled by advancements in AI-driven automation. Advertising revenue reached $55.0 billion in fiscal Q1 2026, marking a 33% year-over-year growth. Market forecasts by WARC Media and eMarketer in May and June 2026 projected Meta's advertising business to grow between 22.3% and 24.1% in 2026, with an expected revenue of $240 billion to $243.5 billion. Notably, eMarketer projected that Meta would surpass Google in global digital ad revenue for the first time in 2026. This growth is largely attributed to Meta's Advantage+ automated ad suite, which leverages machine learning to optimize campaigns and is reported to generate approximately $60 billion in annualized revenue, delivering a 22% higher return compared to manual campaigns.

3. Strategic and substantial investments in AI infrastructure, coupled with an expansion into cloud hosting services, bolstered investor confidence. Meta announced projected capital expenditures of $125 billion to $145 billion in 2026, primarily aimed at accelerating its AI transformation and building approximately 14 gigawatts of AI compute capacity by 2027. In early July 2026, Meta revealed plans to monetize its extensive AI infrastructure by exploring cloud hosting services, including a potential $10 billion deal over two years to lease data center capacity to third parties like Anthropic. This move signifies a strategic vertical integration of its AI stack and a new revenue stream, alleviating some investor concerns regarding the return on its significant AI investments.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 9.7% change in META stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 9.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).
(LTM values as of)33120267222026Change
Stock Price ($)571.60627.179.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)200,965214,9627.0%
Net Income Margin (%)30.1%32.8%9.2%
P/E Multiple23.922.5-5.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2,5242,534-0.4%
Cumulative Contribution9.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2026 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
META9.7% 
Market (SPY)14.9%42.5%
Sector (XLC)-1.5%55.9%

Fundamental Drivers

The -4.8% change in META stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -20.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)123120257222026Change
Stock Price ($)658.91627.17-4.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)189,457214,96213.5%
Net Income Margin (%)30.9%32.8%6.3%
P/E Multiple28.322.5-20.5%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2,5172,534-0.7%
Cumulative Contribution-4.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
META-4.8% 
Market (SPY)9.9%50.6%
Sector (XLC)-6.9%68.1%

Fundamental Drivers

The -14.7% change in META stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -19.3% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)63020257222026Change
Stock Price ($)735.68627.17-14.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)170,359214,96226.2%
Net Income Margin (%)39.1%32.8%-16.0%
P/E Multiple27.922.5-19.3%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2,5272,534-0.3%
Cumulative Contribution-14.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2025 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
META-14.7% 
Market (SPY)22.0%48.4%
Sector (XLC)1.6%64.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 120.5% change in META stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 83.2% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)63020237222026Change
Stock Price ($)284.48627.17120.5%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)117,346214,96283.2%
Net Income Margin (%)18.3%32.8%79.7%
P/E Multiple34.322.5-34.4%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)2,5872,5342.1%
Cumulative Contribution120.5%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

6/30/2023 to 7/22/2026
ReturnCorrelation
META120.5% 
Market (SPY)74.6%60.2%
Sector (XLC)73.1%74.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
META Return23%-64%194%66%13%-2%138%
Peers Return14%-46%68%7%10%-11%8%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%10%100%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
META Win Rate67%33%92%67%42%57% 
Peers Win Rate58%30%68%57%53%46% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%57% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
META Max Drawdown-20%-74%-13%-18%-34%-29% 
Peers Max Drawdown-28%-54%-23%-29%-33%-33% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-5%-25%-10%-8%-19%-9% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, SNAP, PINS. See META Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/22/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventMETAS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-31.1%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven45.1%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven64 days79 days
2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind
  % Loss-15.2%-7.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven17.9%8.5%
  Time to Breakeven21 days18 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-71.1%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven245.7%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven389 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-32.9%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.0%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven65 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-23.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.9%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven38 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-11.0%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven12.3%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven25 days6 days

Compare to GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, SNAP, PINS

In The Past

Meta Platforms's stock fell -31.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 45.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventMETAS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-31.1%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven45.1%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven64 days79 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-71.1%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven245.7%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven389 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-32.9%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven49.0%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven65 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-23.6%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven30.9%23.8%
  Time to Breakeven38 days105 days

Compare to GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, SNAP, PINS

In The Past

Meta Platforms's stock fell -31.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 45.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Meta Platforms (META)

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) is a global technology company dedicated to connecting people worldwide through its suite of digital products. Its core business operates under the Family of Apps segment, which includes highly popular social media and messaging platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp. These applications enable billions of users across mobile devices, personal computers, and in-home devices to share photos and videos, communicate via messages and calls, discover content, and engage with friends, family, and businesses globally.

Beyond its established social networks, Meta is also significantly investing in the future of digital interaction through its Reality Labs segment. This division focuses on developing augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR) related products, encompassing virtual reality hardware, software, and content. The aim of Reality Labs is to create immersive experiences that enhance connection, positioning Meta as a leader in building foundational technologies for the metaverse.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 1-3 brief analogies for Meta Platforms:

  • Meta is like Google for social networking and communication.
  • Meta is like Apple for virtual reality hardware and experiences.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • Facebook: A social networking platform enabling sharing, discovery, and connection among users.
  • Instagram: A social media platform primarily for sharing photos, videos, and private messages.
  • Messenger: A messaging application facilitating connections with friends, family, groups, and businesses.
  • WhatsApp: A secure messaging application used for private communication and transactions by individuals and businesses.
  • Augmented and Virtual Reality (AR/VR) Products: Hardware, software, and content designed to create immersive experiences that foster connection.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Meta Platforms primarily serves individuals and businesses leveraging its platforms to connect with individuals. Based on the provided company description, its major customers can be categorized as follows:

  1. General Social Media Users: This category includes individuals worldwide who utilize Meta's Family of Apps such as Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp to connect with friends and family, share content, discover interests, and engage in social interactions.
  2. Virtual Reality & Augmented Reality Consumers: These are individuals who purchase and engage with products from Meta's Reality Labs segment, including virtual reality hardware (e.g., headsets), software, and content, to experience immersive virtual and augmented environments.
  3. Small Businesses and Entrepreneurs: This category encompasses businesses and individual entrepreneurs who leverage Meta's platforms, particularly Messenger and WhatsApp, for communication, customer engagement, and private transactions with their own customers. They also utilize features like Instagram Shops to conduct e-commerce.

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  • Qualcomm (QCOM)
  • Intel (INTC)
  • AMD (AMD)
  • Nvidia (NVDA)
  • Arista Networks (ANET)

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Mark Zuckerberg, Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Mark Zuckerberg is the founder, chairman, and CEO of Meta, which he originally founded as Facebook in 2004. He is responsible for setting the company's overall direction and product strategy. Zuckerberg studied computer science at Harvard University before dropping out to focus on the company's growth. In his early life, he developed programs like "ZuckNet" at age twelve and a music player called "Synapse Media Player" in high school, which used machine learning to learn user habits. He is also the co-CEO of the Chan Zuckerberg Initiative, a philanthropic organization.

Susan Li, Chief Financial Officer

Susan Li is the chief financial officer at Meta, a role she assumed in 2022. She leads the finance and facilities teams and is instrumental in developing and implementing Meta's financial strategy. Li joined Facebook (now Meta) in 2008, initially focusing on finance and business planning, and played a significant role in projects including revenue planning and the company's IPO. Before joining Meta, she worked as an investment banking analyst at Morgan Stanley from 2005 to 2008. Born in China, she immigrated to the U.S. at age two, entered high school at 11, and college at 15, starting her professional career at Morgan Stanley at 19.

Javier Olivan, Chief Operating Officer

Javier Olivan serves as Chief Operating Officer at Meta, a position he took in August 2022, succeeding Sheryl Sandberg. He oversees the company's business teams, product infrastructure, and operational strategy across all Meta apps. Olivan joined Facebook's growth team in 2007. Prior to Meta, he worked as a research and development engineer at Siemens and later for NTT Data, and was a product manager at Siemens Mobile. He holds an MBA from Stanford University and master's degrees in electrical and industrial engineering from the University of Navarra.

Andrew Bosworth, Chief Technology Officer

Andrew "Boz" Bosworth is Meta's Chief Technology Officer and leads the Reality Labs division, a role he assumed in January 2022. He joined Facebook in 2006 as one of its first engineers, where he helped develop foundational features like the News Feed and early anti-abuse systems. Bosworth also co-invented Messenger and Groups. He met Mark Zuckerberg at Harvard University, where he was a teaching assistant in an artificial intelligence class, and later worked as a developer for Microsoft Visio before joining Facebook.

Chris Cox, Chief Product Officer

Chris Cox is the Chief Product Officer at Meta, responsible for leading its apps and technologies. He joined Facebook in 2005 as one of its initial software engineers and was instrumental in building the first versions of key Facebook features, including the News Feed. Cox has held various executive roles, including director of human resources and vice president of product, before being promoted to Chief Product Officer in 2014, and again in 2020. He studied symbolic systems with a concentration in artificial intelligence at Stanford University.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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Key Risks to Meta Platforms (META)

  1. Regulatory and Antitrust Scrutiny: Meta Platforms faces significant and ongoing regulatory pressure and antitrust investigations globally. This risk stems from its market dominance in social networking, its data privacy practices, and its past acquisitions (e.g., Instagram, WhatsApp). Governments and regulatory bodies worldwide are scrutinizing Meta's business practices, content moderation policies, and potential anti-competitive behavior. Such scrutiny could lead to substantial fines, forced divestitures of key assets, restrictions on future acquisitions, or changes to its operating model, all of which could materially impact its financial performance and strategic flexibility.
  2. Intense Competition for User Engagement and Advertising Revenue: Meta's core business relies heavily on maintaining a large, engaged user base across its Family of Apps (Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, WhatsApp) to attract advertisers. The company faces fierce competition from established social media platforms, emerging rivals, and new digital services, particularly for younger audiences. The rise of platforms like TikTok, which specializes in short-form video content, directly competes for user attention and advertising spending, potentially leading to declining engagement or slower user growth on Meta's platforms.
  3. Dependence on Advertising Revenue and Impact of Platform Changes: Meta's financial success is overwhelmingly reliant on advertising revenue generated from its Family of Apps segment. This dependence makes the company vulnerable to shifts in advertiser spending, economic downturns, and changes to third-party platform policies. For instance, Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) framework significantly impacted Meta's ability to target ads effectively and measure campaign performance, leading to substantial revenue losses. Similar future policy changes by operating system providers or web browsers could further restrict Meta's data collection and targeting capabilities, directly affecting its primary revenue source. Additionally, the substantial and ongoing investments in the Reality Labs segment, which is currently generating significant operating losses, place further pressure on the profitability of the advertising business.
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AI Analysis | Feedback

1. **Apple's entry into the high-end mixed reality market with Vision Pro:** This directly competes with Meta's Reality Labs segment, particularly its virtual and augmented reality hardware and software initiatives. Apple's strong ecosystem, brand loyalty, and technological capabilities pose a significant threat to Meta's ambitions in the metaverse space, similar to how the iPhone disrupted Research in Motion's BlackBerry.

2. **Continued market share gains and innovation from TikTok:** While not a new entrant, TikTok's sustained and growing dominance in short-form video content and user engagement, especially among younger demographics, continues to pose a significant competitive threat to Meta's Family of Apps, particularly Instagram and Facebook. Its innovative recommendation algorithms and content formats force Meta to constantly adapt and develop competing features like Reels, diverting resources and challenging its core user base and advertising revenue.

3. **Platform policy changes by operating system providers (e.g., Apple's App Tracking Transparency):** Changes to privacy policies and data tracking restrictions imposed by powerful platform owners like Apple (and potentially Google) significantly impact Meta's ability to collect data for targeted advertising across its Family of Apps. This directly threatens its primary revenue model, forcing Meta to re-architect its advertising technology and potentially diminishing its ad effectiveness, which could lead to lower ad spend from advertisers.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Meta Platforms (symbol: META) operates in several large addressable markets globally through its Family of Apps and Reality Labs segments.

Family of Apps

  • The global social media market was valued at approximately USD 238.56 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to USD 499.04 billion by 2030. Other estimates place the global social media market size at USD 218.03 billion in 2023, anticipated to exceed USD 815.78 billion by 2033. Furthermore, the social networking market is expected to increase from USD 180.5 billion in 2025 to USD 411.27 billion by 2031.
  • The global instant messaging app market was valued at USD 28.62 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 47.51 billion by 2034. Another estimate indicates the global instant messaging app market was valued at US$ 28.62 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach US$ 40.22 billion by 2032. Separately, the global messaging platform market was estimated at USD 98.7 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 218.4 billion by 2034.

Reality Labs

  • The global augmented reality (AR) market was valued at USD 77.30 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 1,127.94 billion by 2032. Other reports show the worldwide Augmented Reality (AR) market size valued at US$35.8 billion in 2024, projected to grow to US$233.3 billion by 2030. Additionally, the global AR market size was estimated at USD 120.21 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1,050.56 billion by 2033.
  • The global virtual reality (VR) market was valued at approximately USD 44.4 billion. It was estimated at USD 36.13 billion in 2024 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 284.04 billion by 2034. Another source states the global virtual reality (VR) market size was valued at USD 20.83 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 171.33 billion by 2034.
  • The global metaverse market size was valued at USD 1,273.58 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow from USD 2,114.25 billion in 2026 to USD 10,808.57 billion by 2034. Another estimate suggests the global metaverse market size was valued at USD 180.8 billion in 2025 and is estimated to reach USD 2,609.5 billion by 2034. Additionally, the global metaverse market size was estimated at USD 105,396.5 million (approximately USD 105.40 billion) in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 936,574.7 million (approximately USD 936.57 billion) by 2030.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Meta Platforms (META) over the next 2-3 years:

Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Meta Platforms (META)

  1. AI Integration and Enhanced Ad Performance in Family of Apps: Meta is deeply integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) across its core applications, including Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, and WhatsApp, to improve user experience and create new avenues for monetization. AI-powered ad optimization systems are crucial for driving higher engagement, extending session times, and increasing monetizable content per user by more effectively matching commercial intent with advertising content. This strategy aims to boost both ad impressions and the average price per ad.
  2. Monetization of WhatsApp and Growth of Threads: The company is actively working to monetize WhatsApp, a platform with significant untapped potential, particularly through its WhatsApp Business services. Additionally, Threads, Meta's newer platform, has rapidly gained a substantial user base and is expanding its advertising offerings, thereby opening up new revenue streams.
  3. Expansion of Reality Labs with Wearables and Metaverse Advancement: Meta is making substantial long-term investments in its Reality Labs segment, with a strategic focus on advancing the metaverse and developing next-generation virtual reality (VR) and mixed reality (MR) devices and social platforms. While this segment currently incurs significant losses, it is considered a foundational element for Meta's future growth, with a specific emphasis on "glasses and wearables." For instance, sales of Ray-Ban Meta AI glasses have more than tripled.
  4. International Advertising Revenue Growth and User Base Expansion: Meta continues to see robust growth in advertising revenue from international markets, with notable year-over-year increases in regions such as Rest of World, Asia Pacific, and Europe. The company's strategy involves expanding into new international markets and tailoring its offerings to local preferences, which is expected to broaden its user base and revenue potential. Increasing user engagement across established platforms like Instagram and Facebook, along with the development and scaling of new products like Threads and Meta AI, is vital for attracting new advertisers and maintaining a competitive edge. Instagram is highlighted as a fast-growing revenue driver, benefiting from strong user engagement through features like Reels and improved content recommendations.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Share Repurchases

  • Meta Platforms repurchased $20.03 billion in shares during 2023.
  • In February 2024, Meta authorized an additional $50 billion for share repurchases.
  • For the full year 2025, Meta Platforms repurchased $26.26 billion of its Class A common stock.

Share Issuance

  • Meta's shares outstanding have been declining annually, with a 1.53% decrease in 2025 to 2.574 billion shares, and a 0.57% decrease in 2024 to 2.614 billion shares, reflecting the impact of share repurchases.

Outbound Investments

  • Meta has pursued an aggressive acquisition strategy since 2020, focusing on virtual reality (VR), augmented reality (AR), and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies.
  • Notable acquisitions include Unit 2 Games in 2021 for game creation, presize.ai and Luxexcel in 2022 for body scanning technology and 3D printing optical components respectively, and Moltbook in 2025 as an AI networking platform.
  • Meta's long-term investments increased significantly in 2025, reaching $27.524 billion, a 353.44% increase from 2024.

Capital Expenditures

  • Meta's capital expenditures were $27.266 billion in 2023, $37.256 billion in 2024, and $72.22 billion for the full year 2025.
  • The company anticipates its 2026 capital expenditures to be in the range of $115-135 billion.
  • These capital expenditures are primarily focused on expanding data center and GPU capacity to support Meta Superintelligence Labs efforts and the core business's AI initiatives.

Better Bets vs. Meta Platforms (META)

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Peer Comparisons

Peers to compare with:

Financials

METAGOOGLAMZNMSFTSNAPPINSMedian
NameMeta Pla.Alphabet Amazon.c.MicrosoftSnap Pinterest 
Mkt Price627.17342.09244.85390.344.4722.54293.47
Mkt Cap1,589.24,138.92,630.42,898.77.514.32,109.8
Rev LTM214,962422,499742,776318,2736,0974,374266,618
Op Inc LTM88,593138,12985,422148,957-41332287,008
FCF LTM48,25364,429-2,47272,9166091,20724,730
FCF 3Y Avg50,10169,47421,34670,95229197635,724
CFO LTM124,000174,353148,531170,1418311,249136,266
CFO 3Y Avg98,823138,013120,527136,9914971,002109,675

Growth & Margins

METAGOOGLAMZNMSFTSNAPPINSMedian
NameMeta Pla.Alphabet Amazon.c.MicrosoftSnap Pinterest 
Rev Chg LTM26.2%17.5%14.2%17.9%10.3%16.3%16.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg22.4%14.1%12.3%15.3%10.5%15.6%14.7%
Rev Chg Q33.1%21.8%16.6%18.3%12.1%17.8%18.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM7.0%4.9%3.6%4.2%2.8%3.6%3.9%
Op Inc Chg LTM21.2%17.5%19.2%22.0%36.3%62.1%21.6%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg50.4%24.3%108.4%20.7%32.4%131.1%41.4%
Op Mgn LTM41.2%32.7%11.5%46.8%-6.8%7.4%22.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg40.5%31.5%10.2%45.6%-15.6%4.9%20.8%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%0.7%0.3%0.1%2.2%-0.2%0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM57.7%41.3%20.0%53.5%13.6%28.5%34.9%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg55.9%37.3%18.1%49.5%8.7%26.3%31.8%
FCF/Rev LTM22.4%15.2%-0.3%22.9%10.0%27.6%18.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg29.3%19.3%3.5%26.1%4.9%25.7%22.5%

Valuation

METAGOOGLAMZNMSFTSNAPPINSMedian
NameMeta Pla.Alphabet Amazon.c.MicrosoftSnap Pinterest 
Mkt Cap1,589.24,138.92,630.42,898.77.514.32,109.8
P/S7.49.83.59.11.23.35.5
P/Op Inc17.930.030.819.5-18.344.524.7
P/EBIT17.521.222.318.4-27.944.519.8
P/E22.525.829.023.1-18.442.924.5
P/CFO12.823.717.717.09.111.514.9
Total Yield4.8%4.1%3.5%5.2%-5.4%2.3%3.8%
Dividend Yield0.3%0.2%0.0%0.9%0.0%0.0%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.4%2.7%1.0%2.2%3.3%5.2%3.0%
D/E0.10.00.10.00.60.10.1
Net D/E0.0-0.00.0-0.00.2-0.0-0.0

Returns

METAGOOGLAMZNMSFTSNAPPINSMedian
NameMeta Pla.Alphabet Amazon.c.MicrosoftSnap Pinterest 
1M Rtn11.2%-2.2%5.2%6.3%-3.5%15.6%5.7%
3M Rtn-7.0%0.9%-4.1%-9.6%-23.5%9.3%-5.5%
6M Rtn2.5%4.3%5.9%-11.7%-39.3%-9.8%-3.7%
12M Rtn-10.7%79.3%7.6%-22.1%-56.8%-40.9%-16.4%
3Y Rtn115.0%187.6%88.3%16.2%-64.9%-19.4%52.3%
1M Excs Rtn10.9%-2.5%4.8%5.9%-3.8%15.2%5.4%
3M Excs Rtn-12.3%-3.1%-8.2%-13.9%-26.9%3.2%-10.2%
6M Excs Rtn-6.3%-4.0%-4.3%-24.1%-49.5%-21.6%-13.9%
12M Excs Rtn-30.7%61.5%-12.1%-41.8%-73.7%-59.6%-36.2%
3Y Excs Rtn37.9%111.1%17.5%-50.2%-132.6%-88.5%-16.4%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Family of Apps198,759162,355133,006114,450115,655
Reality Labs2,2072,1461,8962,1592,274
Total200,966164,501134,902116,609117,929


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Family of Apps102,46987,10962,87142,66156,946
Reality Labs-19,193-17,729-16,120-13,717-10,193
Total83,27669,38046,75128,94446,753


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$627.17 
Market Cap ($ Bil)1,589.2 
First Trading Date05/18/2012 
Distance from 52W High-20.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$605.82$638.23
DMA Trenddowndown
Distance from DMA3.5%-1.7%
 3M1YR
Volatility44.9%38.8%
Downside Capture103.82144.86
Upside Capture47.24100.81
Correlation (SPY)32.7%48.5%
META Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.271.091.461.511.441.46
Up Beta2.702.182.411.911.881.56
Down Beta2.212.281.882.101.821.45
Up Capture-11%-2%59%83%75%294%
Bmk +ve Days11244067140429
Stock +ve Days8203463125393
Down Capture109%65%101%135%129%108%
Bmk -ve Days10172358112321
Stock -ve Days13212962127357

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with META
META-11.8%38.8%-0.24-
Sector ETF (XLC)2.5%13.9%-0.0664.6%
Equity (SPY)20.0%12.6%1.1648.6%
Gold (GLD)21.2%28.1%0.6714.7%
Commodities (DBC)33.0%19.1%1.36-11.1%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.9%14.0%0.709.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-43.6%42.9%-1.2118.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with META
META12.7%44.5%0.41-
Sector ETF (XLC)7.0%20.8%0.2581.1%
Equity (SPY)12.8%17.1%0.5861.5%
Gold (GLD)17.3%18.4%0.766.0%
Commodities (DBC)9.3%19.5%0.374.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)2.7%18.9%0.0432.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)15.2%53.5%0.4623.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return
Annualized
Volatility
Sharpe
Ratio
Correlation
with META
META18.3%38.9%0.56-
Sector ETF (XLC)9.0%22.1%0.4681.2%
Equity (SPY)15.1%17.9%0.7261.2%
Gold (GLD)11.5%16.1%0.586.4%
Commodities (DBC)7.1%17.9%0.3112.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.0%20.7%0.2034.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)58.5%66.2%0.9916.9%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date6302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity34.5 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 615202615.0%
Average Daily Volume17.1 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.0 days
Basic Shares Quantity2,534.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.4%

Earnings Returns History

Updated 6/2/2026
Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/29/2026-8.6%-8.4%-5.5%
1/28/202610.4%0.0%-3.1%
10/29/2025-11.3%-15.4%-14.7%
7/30/202511.3%11.0%8.0%
4/30/20254.2%8.7%17.9%
1/29/20251.6%4.2%-1.2%
10/30/2024-4.1%-3.3%-3.0%
7/31/20244.8%3.0%9.1%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121511
# Negative12913
Median Positive9.3%5.3%12.9%
Median Negative-5.8%-8.4%-4.0%
Max Positive23.3%27.7%26.3%
Max Negative-26.4%-30.3%-38.1%
Collapse to Preview
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
4/29/2026-8.6%-8.4%-5.5%
1/28/202610.4%0.0%-3.1%
10/29/2025-11.3%-15.4%-14.7%
7/30/202511.3%11.0%8.0%
4/30/20254.2%8.7%17.9%
1/29/20251.6%4.2%-1.2%
10/30/2024-4.1%-3.3%-3.0%
7/31/20244.8%3.0%9.1%
4/24/2024-10.6%-11.0%-5.6%
2/1/202420.3%19.1%26.3%
10/25/2023-3.7%4.1%12.9%
7/26/20234.4%5.3%-4.0%
4/26/202313.9%13.2%20.7%
2/1/202323.3%19.8%21.0%
10/26/2022-24.6%-30.3%-14.2%
7/27/2022-5.2%-0.5%-0.5%
4/27/202217.6%27.7%9.5%
2/2/2022-26.4%-28.2%-38.1%
10/25/2021-3.9%0.4%2.6%
7/28/2021-4.0%-3.8%-2.4%
4/28/20217.3%2.6%8.4%
1/27/2021-2.6%-2.0%-5.3%
10/29/2020-6.3%4.9%-1.4%
7/30/20208.2%13.1%25.2%
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121511
# Negative12913
Median Positive9.3%5.3%12.9%
Median Negative-5.8%-8.4%-4.0%
Max Positive23.3%27.7%26.3%
Max Negative-26.4%-30.3%-38.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202501/29/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202401/30/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202404/25/202410-Q
12/31/202302/02/202410-K
09/30/202310/26/202310-Q
06/30/202307/27/202310-Q
03/31/202304/27/202310-Q
12/31/202202/02/202310-K
09/30/202210/27/202210-Q
06/30/202207/28/202210-Q
Collapse to Preview
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202604/30/202610-Q
12/31/202501/29/202610-K
09/30/202510/30/202510-Q
06/30/202507/31/202510-Q
03/31/202505/01/202510-Q
12/31/202401/30/202510-K
09/30/202410/31/202410-Q
06/30/202408/01/202410-Q
03/31/202404/25/202410-Q
12/31/202302/02/202410-K
09/30/202310/26/202310-Q
06/30/202307/27/202310-Q
03/31/202304/27/202310-Q
12/31/202202/02/202310-K
09/30/202210/27/202210-Q
06/30/202207/28/202210-Q
03/31/202204/28/202210-Q
12/31/202102/03/202210-K
09/30/202110/26/202110-Q
06/30/202107/29/202110-Q
03/31/202104/29/202110-Q
12/31/202001/28/202110-K
09/30/202010/30/202010-Q
06/30/202007/31/202010-Q
03/31/202004/30/202010-Q
12/31/201901/30/202010-K
09/30/201910/31/201910-Q
06/30/201907/25/201910-Q

Recent Forward Guidance

Updated 7/8/2026

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/29/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Revenue58.00 Bil59.50 Bil61.00 Bil   
2026 Total Expenses162.00 Bil165.50 Bil169.00 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 165.50 Bil for 2026
2026 Capital Expenditures125.00 Bil135.00 Bil145.00 Bil8.0% RaisedGuidance: 125.00 Bil for 2026
2026 Tax Rate13.0%14.5%16.0% 0AffirmedGuidance: 14.5% for 2026

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/28/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Revenue53.50 Bil55.00 Bil56.50 Bil-4.3% Lower NewGuidance: 57.50 Bil for Q4 2025
2026 Total Expenses162.00 Bil165.50 Bil169.00 Bil41.5% Higher NewGuidance: 117.00 Bil for 2025
2026 Capital Expenditures115.00 Bil125.00 Bil135.00 Bil76.1% Higher NewGuidance: 71.00 Bil for 2025
2026 Tax Rate13.0%14.5%16.0%   

Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/29/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2025 Revenue56.00 Bil57.50 Bil59.00 Bil17.3% Higher NewGuidance: 49.00 Bil for Q3 2025
Q4 2025 Tax Rate12.0%13.5%15.0%   
2025 Total Expenses116.00 Bil117.00 Bil118.00 Bil0.9% RaisedGuidance: 116.00 Bil for 2025
2025 Capital Expenditures70.00 Bil71.00 Bil72.00 Bil2.9% RaisedGuidance: 69.00 Bil for 2025

Insider Activity

Updated 7/22/2026
Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7222026645.85837540,5764,602,973Form
2Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell7222026645.858252,9604,350,446Form
3Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell7222026645.855736,8131,090,195Form
4Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell7222026645.858252,9604,350,446Form
5Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell7222026645.85408263,50752,384,248Form
Collapse to Preview
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
1Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7222026645.85837540,5764,602,973Form
2Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell7222026645.858252,9604,350,446Form
3Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell7222026645.855736,8131,090,195Form
4Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell7222026645.858252,9604,350,446Form
5Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell7222026645.85408263,50752,384,248Form
6Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7152026660.981,5341,013,9365,264,009Form
7Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell7152026661.138254,2134,507,584Form
8Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell7152026661.135737,6841,153,672Form
9Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell7152026661.138254,2134,507,584Form
10Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell7152026661.13408269,74153,893,334Form
11Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7082026600.973,3482,012,0565,708,038Form
12Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell7082026600.00246147,6004,140,000Form
13Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell7082026600.00171102,6001,081,200Form
14Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell7082026600.00246147,6004,140,000Form
15Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell7082026600.951,224735,56649,233,020Form
16Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell7062026607.75500303,8752,092,483Form
17Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell6172026600.0014084,0007,707,600Form
18Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell6172026600.0016498,4004,287,600Form
19Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell6172026600.0011468,4001,183,800Form
20Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell6172026600.0016498,4004,287,600Form
21Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell6172026600.00816489,60049,889,400Form
22Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell6032026629.29504317,1622,481,290Form
23Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell6032026629.29837526,7168,171,960Form
24Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell6032026629.298251,6024,600,110Form
25Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell6032026629.295735,8701,313,328Form
26Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell6032026629.298251,6024,600,110Form
27Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell6032026629.29408256,75052,838,335Form
28Mahoney, Curtis JChief Legal OfficerDirectSell5292026609.922,0791,268,024681,891Form
29Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell5282026608.98837509,7168,417,931Form
30Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell5282026608.988249,9364,501,580Form
31Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell5282026608.985734,7121,305,653Form
32Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell5282026608.988249,9364,501,580Form
33Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell5282026608.98408248,46451,381,470Form
34Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell5192026609.35837510,0268,933,071Form
35Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell5192026609.358249,9674,554,282Form
36Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell5192026609.355734,7331,341,179Form
37Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell5192026609.358249,9674,554,282Form
38Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell5192026609.35408248,61551,661,302Form
39Bosworth, AndrewChief Technology OfficerDirectSell5192026607.837,8474,769,642251,642Form
40Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell5192026607.849,1955,589,1338,015,041Form
41Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell5192026618.432,1271,315,4019,490,427Form
42Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell5132026604.57926559,8324,143,118Form
43Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell5132026604.578249,5754,568,131Form
44Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell5132026604.575734,4601,365,119Form
45Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell5132026604.578249,5754,568,131Form
46Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell5132026604.57408246,66551,502,714Form
47Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell5062026607.74926562,7674,727,609Form
48Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell5062026607.748249,8354,641,918Form
49Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell5062026607.745734,6411,406,918Form
50Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell5062026607.748249,8354,641,918Form
51Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell5062026607.74408247,95852,020,721Form
52Alford, PeggyAlford Family Revocable TrustSell5052026614.53409251,3431,661,689Form
53Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell4292026670.84926621,1985,839,662Form
54Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell4292026670.848255,0095,178,885Form
55Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell4292026670.845738,2381,591,232Form
56Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell4292026670.848255,0095,178,885Form
57Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell4292026670.84408273,70357,695,594Form
58Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell4222026680.09926629,7636,549,947Form
59Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell4222026680.098255,7675,306,062Form
60Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell4222026680.095738,7651,651,939Form
61Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell4222026680.098255,7675,306,062Form
62Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell4222026680.09408277,47758,768,617Form
63Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell4172026667.00580386,8602,565,949Form
64Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell4152026629.452,7781,748,5996,645,054Form
65Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell4152026629.53246154,8644,963,215Form
66Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell4152026629.53171107,6501,565,012Form
67Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell4152026629.53246154,8644,963,215Form
68Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell4152026629.561,224770,58254,659,050Form
69Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell3252026605.38926560,5828,072,742Form
70Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell3252026605.388249,6414,921,739Form
71Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell3252026605.385734,5071,608,495Form
72Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell3252026605.388249,6414,921,739Form
73Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell3252026605.38408246,99553,300,682Form
74Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell3182026632.02580366,5722,797,953Form
75Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell3182026632.02926585,2519,013,237Form
76Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell3182026632.028251,8265,190,148Form
77Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell3182026632.025736,0251,715,302Form
78Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell3182026632.028251,8265,190,148Form
79Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell3182026632.02408257,86455,904,065Form
80Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell3112026634.94926587,9549,642,834Form
81Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell3112026634.948252,0655,266,192Form
82Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell3112026634.945736,1921,759,419Form
83Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell3112026634.948252,0655,266,192Form
84Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell3112026634.94408259,05656,421,403Form
85Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerLi-Hegeman Family FoundationSell3032026644.7056,571  Form
86Alford, PeggyAlford Family Revocable TrustSell2272026643.00392252,0562,001,659Form
87Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell2262026633.6155,70235,293,1758,354,741Form
88Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell2252026652.68926604,38211,121,015Form
89Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell2252026652.688253,5205,520,367Form
90Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell2252026652.685737,2031,882,982Form
91Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell2252026652.688253,5205,520,367Form
92Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell2252026652.68408266,29358,530,384Form
93Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell2242026650.0018,78912,212,85044,777,200Form
94Bosworth, AndrewChief Technology OfficerDirectSell2202026631.248,0895,106,0821,793,346Form
95Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell2182026639.18172109,93911,482,869Form
96Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan D LLCSell2182026639.188252,4135,458,597Form
97Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold D LLCSell2182026639.185736,4331,880,468Form
98Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerReinhold D LLCSell2182026639.188252,4135,458,597Form
99Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerOlivan Reinhold Family Revocable Trust u/a/d 10/16/12Sell2182026639.18408260,78557,580,530Form
100Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell2182026639.776,4184,106,04446,924,570Form
101Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell2182026639.772,4611,574,4747,746,335Form
102Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell2112026663.19517342,8696,033,703Form
103Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell2042026714.60517369,4486,870,879Form
104Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell1282026665.00517343,8056,737,780Form
105Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell1222026608.35517314,5176,478,319Form
106Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell1202026618.28580358,6023,454,330Form
107Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell1142026653.00517337,6017,291,398Form
108Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell12302025658.69519341,86018,876,738Form
109Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell12302025658.14517340,2588,029,308Form
110Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell12232025659.38519342,21819,238,730Form
111Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell12232025661.11517341,7948,407,336Form
112Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell12182025643.23519333,83619,101,358Form
113Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell12172025646.00517333,9828,549,164Form
114Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell12172025646.00580374,6803,983,882Form
115Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell12112025664.16519344,69920,067,594Form
116Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell12102025669.63517346,1999,208,082Form
117Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell12042025642.22519333,31219,737,989Form
118Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell12032025639.03517330,3799,117,706Form
119Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell11262025624.14519323,92919,506,247Form
120Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell11262025598.54517309,4458,849,414Form
121Bosworth, AndrewChief Technology OfficerDirectSell11202025593.3111,6906,935,7431,432,833Form
122Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell11202025591.60519307,04020,487,700Form
123Anderson, AaronChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell11202025591.60726429,5023,570,306Form
124Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell11192025609.35600365,6104,476,894Form
125Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell11182025604.23517312,3869,245,905Form
126Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell11182025609.462,6101,590,6915,962,957Form
127Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell11182025609.466,8754,190,03853,857,980Form
128Bosworth, AndrewChief Technology OfficerDirectSell11182025609.465,0633,085,6964,227,215Form
129Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell11122025631.00517326,2274,369,044Form
130Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell11122025631.00516325,59616,860,951Form
131Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell11062025628.00519325,93217,104,836Form
132Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell11052025656.00517339,1524,881,296Form
133Alford, PeggyAlford Family Revocable TrustSell11042025674.40601405,3142,363,772Form
134Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell10302025753.00519390,80720,900,268Form
135Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell10292025749.57517387,5285,965,078Form
136Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell10232025736.37519382,17620,820,862Form
137Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell10222025721.30517372,9126,113,018Form
138Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell10172025716.97465333,3915,697,761Form
139Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell10162025707.85519367,37420,381,833Form
140Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell10152025713.34517368,7976,414,353Form
141Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell10092025716.98519372,11321,016,835Form
142Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell10082025704.81517364,3876,702,038Form
143Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell10022025741.50519384,83822,120,428Form
144Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell10012025748.72517387,0887,506,667Form
145Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell9252025769.20519399,21523,345,989Form
146Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell9242025781.33517403,9488,237,562Form
147Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell9182025767.16519398,15623,682,229Form
148Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell9172025757.47517391,6128,377,618Form
149Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell9172025757.47465352,2246,371,838Form
150Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell9112025757.50519393,14223,777,168Form
151Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell9102025755.65517390,6718,748,160Form
152Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell9042025726.25519376,92423,173,185Form
153Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell9042025726.25517375,4718,783,268Form
154Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell8282025750.47519389,49424,335,491Form
155Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell8272025755.11517390,3929,522,692Form
156Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell8192025775.00519402,22525,533,150Form
157Bosworth, AndrewChief Technology OfficerDirectSell8192025775.0011,6949,062,8501,394,225Form
158Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell8192025764.7118,33214,018,62464,343,280Form
159Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell8192025775.00517400,67510,174,200Form
160Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell8192025784.32465364,7096,962,409Form
161Bosworth, AndrewChief Technology OfficerDirectSell8192025782.135,0573,955,2314,946,190Form
162Li, Susan JChief Financial OfficerSusan Li and John Hegeman, Co-Trustees of The Li-Hegeman Living Trust u/t/a dated November 30, 2012Sell8192025782.136,8755,377,14469,116,828Form
163Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell8192025782.132,6122,042,9245,951,227Form
164Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8132025785.181,037  Form
165Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8132025787.0615,847  Form
166Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8132025769.3115,847  Form
167Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell8132025770.00517398,0903,658,270Form
168Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8112025765.1115,847  Form
169Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8112025767.4215,847  Form
170Cox, Christopher KChief Product OfficerChristopher K. Cox Revocable TrustSell8082025767.8015,00011,517,049170,609,719Form
171Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell8072025776.38515399,83619,436,673Form
172Cox, Christopher KChief Product OfficerChristopher K. Cox Revocable TrustSell8072025775.9560,00046,557,091184,059,579Form
173Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8062025768.6715,847  Form
174Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8062025770.0215,847  Form
175Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8062025769.3815,847  Form
176Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell8062025760.26517393,0544,005,050Form
177Alford, PeggyAlford Family Revocable TrustSell8052025760.80518394,0943,123,845Form
178Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8042025753.4315,847  Form
179Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOCZI Holdings, LLCSell8042025777.3515,847  Form
180Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell7312025719.86519373,60718,392,423Form
181Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7302025715.00517369,6554,136,275Form
182Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell7242025716.10519371,65618,668,011Form
183Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7232025706.41517365,2144,451,796Form
184Kimmitt, Robert MDirectSell7172025723.08465336,2326,755,013Form
185Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell7172025723.08519375,27919,225,251Form
186Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7162025717.50517370,9484,892,632Form
187Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell7102025721.57519374,49519,559,598Form
188Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7092025717.51517370,9535,263,653Form
189Newstead, JenniferChief Legal OfficerDirectSell7032025737.00519382,50320,360,362Form
190Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOChan Zuckerberg Initiative FoundationSell7022025716.482,361  Form
191Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOChan Zuckerberg Initiative FoundationSell7022025723.8913,7939,984,6701,709,114Form
192Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOChan Zuckerberg Initiative FoundationSell7022025740.2213,79310,209,83411,957,490Form
193Olivan, JavierChief Operating OfficerDirectSell7022025740.97517383,0835,818,853Form
194Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOChan Zuckerberg Initiative FoundationSell6302025730.4713,79310,075,30721,875,242Form
195Zuckerberg, MarkCOB and CEOChan Zuckerberg Initiative FoundationSell6302025722.2713,7939,962,26431,592,070Form

Investor Activity (13F)

Updated Jul 23, 2026
13F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)

Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.

Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Newlands Management Operations LLC$5.6 Bil36.3%16Hold13F
Gobi Capital LLC$401.7 Mil23.5%10Hold13F
Palidye Holdings (Caymans) Ltd$123.2 Mil22.9%15Hold13F
RV Capital AG$83.3 Mil21.8%13ADD +6.8%13F
3G Capital Partners LP$60.1 Mil21.3%10ADD +16.7%13F
Concentrum Wealth Management$67.0 Mil19.8%111Hold13F
Altimeter Capital Management, LP$1.1 Bil19.6%13ADD +5.9%13F
BlueSpruce Investments, LP$111.5 Mil17.7%10TRIM -77.7%13F
Cat Rock Capital Management LP$113.6 Mil17.6%14TRIM -7.9%13F
Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC$226.0 Mil17.4%11Hold13F
Headwater Capital Co Ltd$108.1 Mil17.4%15New13F
SP Asset Management LLC$195.3 Mil17.2%119Hold13F
Theleme Partners LLP$258.1 Mil17.2%10Hold13F
Torque Asset Management LLC$42.8 Mil16.8%12Hold13F
TB Alternative Assets Ltd.$77.2 Mil16.1%36TRIM -22.0%13F
Grace & Mercy Foundation, Inc.$55.8 Mil13.6%21TRIM -5.8%13F
Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC $407.8 Mil13.6%17New13F
WIM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Ltd$44.8 Mil13.3%20ADD +17.9%13F
Styrax Capital, LP$176.2 Mil12.3%17ADD +5.7%13F
Ratan Capital Management LP$32.4 Mil12.0%37ADD +27.4%13F
Belvedere Trading LLC$84.7 Mil11.3%227New13F
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.$1.5 Bil11.1%11Hold13F
ADAPT Investment Managers SA$31.8 Mil10.8%34New13F
Hoey Investments, Inc$73.1 Mil10.8%416Hold13F
Hyperion Asset Management Ltd$324.4 Mil10.3%18New13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC $407.8 Mil13.6%17New13F
Hyperion Asset Management Ltd$324.4 Mil10.3%18New13F
Bowie Capital Management, LLC$147.7 Mil7.0%29New13F
Headwater Capital Co Ltd$108.1 Mil17.4%15New13F
Soma Equity Partners LP$97.5 Mil7.2%20New13F
Belvedere Trading LLC$84.7 Mil11.3%227New13F
Exane Asset Management$33.9 Mil6.9%32New13F
ADAPT Investment Managers SA$31.8 Mil10.8%34New13F
Long Corridor Asset Management Ltd$30.3 Mil7.4%38New13F
Element Capital Management LLC$22.9 Mil9.0%34New13F
Ratan Capital Management LP$32.4 Mil12.0%37ADD +27.4%13F
Crow's Nest Holdings LP$36.6 Mil8.6%11ADD +25.2%13F
Park Presidio Capital LLC$132.4 Mil9.3%13ADD +20.6%13F
WIM INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Ltd$44.8 Mil13.3%20ADD +17.9%13F
3G Capital Partners LP$60.1 Mil21.3%10ADD +16.7%13F
Hamilton Capital Partners, LLC$31.4 Mil9.8%30ADD +15.3%13F
MFF Capital Investments Ltd$127.5 Mil8.4%19ADD +10.0%13F
RV Capital AG$83.3 Mil21.8%13ADD +6.8%13F
Altimeter Capital Management, LP$1.1 Bil19.6%13ADD +5.9%13F
Styrax Capital, LP$176.2 Mil12.3%17ADD +5.7%13F
Sanders Capital, LLC$6.0 Bil7.2%44ADD +5.2%13F
Horiko Capital Management LLC$40.9 Mil9.4%20ADD +5.1%13F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQAs OfFiling
Giverny Capital Inc.$206.9 Mil6.9%50ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Teewinot Capital Advisers, L.L.C.$120.4 Mil8.8%31ExitedDec 31, 202513F
MIG Capital, LLC$52.4 Mil8.9%43ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Hound Partners, LLC$50.8 Mil7.0%36ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Kapitalo Investimentos Ltda$37.4 Mil7.2%35ExitedDec 31, 202513F
Venator Management LLC$33.2 Mil7.5%27ExitedDec 31, 202513F
BlueSpruce Investments, LP$111.5 Mil17.7%10TRIM -77.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd.$309.9 Mil8.0%35TRIM -45.7%Mar 31, 202613F
Columbus Hill Capital Management, L.P.$40.3 Mil6.8%21TRIM -29.7%Mar 31, 202613F
TB Alternative Assets Ltd.$77.2 Mil16.1%36TRIM -22.0%Mar 31, 202613F
ValueAct Holdings, L.P.$523.9 Mil9.2%18TRIM -12.6%Mar 31, 202613F
Cat Rock Capital Management LP$113.6 Mil17.6%14TRIM -7.9%Mar 31, 202613F
Grace & Mercy Foundation, Inc.$55.8 Mil13.6%21TRIM -5.8%Mar 31, 202613F
Active ManagerValue% of PortfolioTotal PositionsQoQFiling
Sanders Capital, LLC$6.0 Bil7.2%44ADD +5.2%13F
Newlands Management Operations LLC$5.6 Bil36.3%16Hold13F
Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P.$1.5 Bil11.1%11Hold13F
Altimeter Capital Management, LP$1.1 Bil19.6%13ADD +5.9%13F
ValueAct Holdings, L.P.$523.9 Mil9.2%18TRIM -12.6%13F
Dragoneer Investment Group, LLC $407.8 Mil13.6%17New13F
Gobi Capital LLC$401.7 Mil23.5%10Hold13F
Hyperion Asset Management Ltd$324.4 Mil10.3%18New13F
Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd.$309.9 Mil8.0%35TRIM -45.7%13F
Theleme Partners LLP$258.1 Mil17.2%10Hold13F
Greenbrier Partners Capital Management, LLC$226.0 Mil17.4%11Hold13F
SP Asset Management LLC$195.3 Mil17.2%119Hold13F
Styrax Capital, LP$176.2 Mil12.3%17ADD +5.7%13F
Bowie Capital Management, LLC$147.7 Mil7.0%29New13F
Park Presidio Capital LLC$132.4 Mil9.3%13ADD +20.6%13F
MFF Capital Investments Ltd$127.5 Mil8.4%19ADD +10.0%13F
Palidye Holdings (Caymans) Ltd$123.2 Mil22.9%15Hold13F
a16z Capital Management, L.L.C.$121.6 Mil9.4%16Hold13F
Cat Rock Capital Management LP$113.6 Mil17.6%14TRIM -7.9%13F
BlueSpruce Investments, LP$111.5 Mil17.7%10TRIM -77.7%13F
Headwater Capital Co Ltd$108.1 Mil17.4%15New13F
Soma Equity Partners LP$97.5 Mil7.2%20New13F
Dorsey Asset Management, LLC$92.5 Mil7.4%11Hold13F
Strategy Capital LLC$85.6 Mil7.0%11Hold13F
Belvedere Trading LLC$84.7 Mil11.3%227New13F

META Trade Sentinel


Stock Conviction

Constructive

CONVICTION RATIONALE

Meta's core advertising business is re-accelerating, with AI driving both a 19% increase in ad volume and a 12% rise in price. This powerful profit engine is funding a massive, multi-year investment in AI infrastructure. Conviction is tempered by the sheer scale of this spending, which has created forecast uncertainty and is compressing near-term margins.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Advertising / Transactional

(Daily Active People) x (Engagement & Ad Load) x (Average Price per Ad) The operating margin of the Family of Apps segment, which is driven by the spread between the price charged for ads and the cost to serve them at massive scale.

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Can AI Investment Sustain Core Ad Business Re-acceleration?

Evidence suggests yes; AI is already delivering measurable gains in user engagement and advertiser conversions, fueling strong top-line growth.

Mechanism: AI-powered recommendation engines drive higher engagement, growing ad inventory (impressions up 19% YoY), while improved targeting tools boost advertiser ROI, supporting stronger pricing (price per ad up 12% YoY).
Supporting Evidence:
  • Latest-quarter revenue growth accelerated to 33.1% year-over-year.
  • Ad impressions delivered increased by 19% year-over-year in Q1 2026.
  • Average price per ad increased by 12% year-over-year in Q1 2026.
  • AI recommendation systems led to 5% more time spent on Facebook.
  • A new AI model drove roughly 5% more ad conversions on Instagram.
PRIMARY RISK
Unprecedented Investment Burn

A massive, upwardly-revised capital plan for 2026 is causing opex to outpace revenue growth, compressing margins and raising concerns about capital destruction.

Mechanism: A failure to control operating expense growth relative to revenue would confirm negative operating leverage and a breakdown in financial discipline.
Supporting Evidence:
  • 2026 Capital Expenditures guidance was raised by 8.0%.
  • Operating expenses grew 32.3% YoY, outpacing revenue growth of 26.2%.
  • Trailing-twelve-month operating margin declined by 1.7 percentage points.
  • Capital expenditure is 35.2% of trailing-twelve-month revenue.
  • Reality Labs segment operating losses were -$19,193 million in 2025.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Status Rationale
Family Daily Active People (DAP)3.56 billion on average for March 2026, a 4% year-over-year increase. - StableWhile user growth remains positive on a year-over-year basis, the latest quarter showed a slight sequential decline. Management attributed this dip to specific external factors, namely internet disruptions in Iran and a restriction on access to WhatsApp in Russia, rather than a fundamental weakening of engagement.
Ad Impressions GrowthAn increase of 19% year-over-year for Q1 2026. - AcceleratingThe growth in ad impressions, which represents ad volume, has consistently accelerated over the last three reported quarters. This indicates strengthening user engagement and/or successful efforts to increase ad load on the platform's services.
Ad impressions delivered (YoY Growth)19% increase (Q1 2026)Indicates the growth in ad inventory, driven by user growth, engagement, and changes in ad load. It is a primary volume driver for advertising revenue.
Average price per ad (YoY Growth)12% increase (Q1 2026)Reflects advertiser demand and the effectiveness of ad products. Rising prices are a key indicator of pricing power and a primary value driver for revenue.
Core Investment Debate

AI-Fueled Ad Growth vs. Capital Incineration

BULL VIEW

The massive AI spend is a necessary investment that is already yielding tangible returns, reflected in the 33.1% acceleration in core advertising revenue.

CORE TENSION

Can AI-driven ad revenue, growing 33.1% YoY, generate enough profit to justify a 2026 capital plan that the market punished with a -9.0% stock decline?


PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH

The most recent operational data, showing accelerating double-digit growth in both ad volume and pricing, favors the view that the investments are successfully fueling the core business.

BEAR VIEW

The scale of the -$145 billion 2026 capex plan is value-destructive, evidenced by opex growing faster than revenue and compressing the company's overall operating margin.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
Negative Earnings Reaction
Watch: Commentary on 2026 CapEx and expense growth trajectory versus revenue growth; any downward revision to revenue guidance.
Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
Q2 2026 Earnings Report
Watch: Meta to announce second quarter 2026 financial results after market close.
August 5, 2026
Adverse Youth Litigation Verdict
Watch: Jury verdict, size of any damages or penalties awarded, and any commentary on potential for further multi-billion dollar liabilities.
August 5, 2026
Youth Addiction MDL Trial
Watch: Second trial in the multidistrict litigation for state attorneys general claims regarding social media adolescent addiction is scheduled to begin.
October 2026
Spain Antitrust Media Trial
Watch: Trial is scheduled in Spain for a case brought by ten radio and television publishers alleging anticompetitive conduct.
10/27/2026
Q3 2026 Earnings Report
Watch: Meta is scheduled to report its next earnings, on the same day as peers Alphabet and Microsoft.
10/27/2026
Alphabet Peer Earnings
Watch: Peer Alphabet (GOOGL) is scheduled to report earnings.
10/27/2026
Microsoft Peer Earnings
Watch: Peer Microsoft (MSFT) is scheduled to report earnings.
No set date
EU Regulatory Action
Watch: Announcements from the European Commission or Irish DPC regarding the 'subscription for no ads' model or data practices.
No set date
AI Execution Setback
Watch: Further reports on internal AI progress, delays in model releases, or management commentary on AI product traction during earnings.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
2026-07-03
AI Agent Progress Slower Than Planned
Details: The CEO reportedly acknowledged in an internal town hall that the company's AI agent systems had not advanced as quickly as expected.
-2.1%
$612.91 -> $600.29
2026-05-11
New Civil Fraud Prosecution
Details: Santa Clara County Counsel filed a civil prosecution against Meta, alleging the company knowingly facilitates and profits from scam advertisements on its platforms.
-1.1%
$609.07 -> $602.44
2026-04-29
Q1 Earnings and Capex Hike
Details: Following its Q1 earnings report, the company raised its 2026 Capital Expenditures guidance by 8.0%. The stock reacted negatively with a -9.0% two-day decline.
-8.9%
$670.72 -> $611.34
2026-04-09
Muse Spark AI Model Launched
Details: Meta launched Muse Spark, its most powerful AI model at the time and the first major product from its new Meta Superintelligence Lab.
+2.8%
$611.85 -> $629.28
2026-03-28
Stock Enters Bear Market
Details: The stock entered a bear market, with shares down nearly from 2025 highs, as the market reacted to management's commitment to aggressive AI investment.
-2.0%
$547.03 -> $535.88
2026-01-28
Q4 Earnings Beat, AI Spend Plan
Details: Meta beat Q4 earnings and announced plans to spend as much as $135 billion on its AI build-out in 2026. The stock reacted positively, with a 10.0% two-day gain.
+9.7%
$671.77 -> $737.00
Risk Management
Position Sizing

2% - 4%

REDUCED POSITION

Sizing is volatility-based: META trades at roughly 42% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (2.9x the market), around the 97th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.

Diversification Alternatives
GOOGL - Alphabet
Diversified AI Exposure

Alphabet offers exposure to AI across search, cloud, and autonomous technology, providing a broader and more diversified play on the theme than Meta's consumer-centric focus.

Core Thesis: Investing in a foundational AI leader with multiple monetization paths across enterprise and consumer markets.
MSFT - Microsoft
Enterprise AI Play

Microsoft provides a more enterprise-focused AI investment through its cloud and software segments, with a higher TTM operating margin of 46.8% compared to Meta's 41.2%.

Core Thesis: Capitalizing on the integration of AI into enterprise software and cloud infrastructure, a structurally different market.
How Is The Market Pricing META?

An AI-powered advertising juggernaut using its immense profitability to fund a high-stakes, capital-intensive transformation into a next-generation computing and AI company.

Meta's core business is a highly efficient advertising machine built on its massive user base. This engine is accelerating, with AI improvements driving both user engagement and ad performance. The company is channeling its enormous cash flow into two long-term bets: Reality Labs (the metaverse) and foundational AI models (superintelligence). Investors are weighing the near-term certainty of the accelerating ad business against the long-term uncertainty and immense cost of these transformative projects.

What will confirm the thesis

Sustained acceleration in quarterly revenue growth, evidence of Reality Labs' losses peaking or narrowing, or successful monetization of new AI products.

What will damage the thesis

A slowdown in ad revenue growth, inability to offset ad signal loss from OS changes, or continued expansion of Reality Labs' losses without a clear path to profitability.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Short-term stock price volatility around earnings calls, which have historically been dramatic in both directions.

Repricing Catalyst

The market's reaction to the upcoming earnings report on 10/27/2026, especially in light of the significant stock underperformance over the last year and high implied volatility.

What META Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on fiscal year 2025 filings (the latest reported segment data)
Family of Apps
$198.8B TTM (99% of Total) · 52% Margin
What It Is

This segment sells advertising placements to marketers, enabling them to reach users on Facebook, Instagram, Messenger, Threads, and WhatsApp. It also generates 'Other' revenue from sources like paid messaging and Meta Verified subscriptions.

Who Pays & How

Marketers, ranging from small businesses to large corporations, pay for ads to connect with Meta's vast user base to achieve marketing objectives like lead generation and brand awareness. They use the platform for its extensive reach and targeting capabilities.

Transactional, based on the number of ad impressions delivered or the number of user actions (e.g., clicks).
Competition
TikTok is named as a competitive product that has reduced some users' engagement.
Competitors may have greater resources or stronger positions in certain demographics, such as younger users, who are actively engaging with other products.
A massive, engaged user base across multiple integrated platforms (Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, etc.) creates a powerful network effect that is difficult for competitors to replicate.
Reality Labs
$2.2B TTM (1% of Total) · -870% Margin
What It Is

This segment sells consumer hardware products (like Meta Quest VR headsets and AI glasses), software, and content to consumers.

Who Pays & How

Consumers pay for hardware and digital content to access immersive experiences in gaming, fitness, and entertainment, and to use next-generation computing interfaces like augmented and virtual reality.

Direct-to-consumer unit sales of hardware and transactional sales of digital software and content.
Competition
The company notes it has relatively limited experience with consumer hardware products and VR/AR technology, which may enable other companies to compete more effectively.
Significant, long-term capital investment in foundational technologies for the 'next computing platform,' including VR/AR devices, neural interfaces, and AI.
META Evolution: Price Return by Era
2021-2025 · Dominant Ad-Fueled Growth
+147%
Over the past years, the Family of Apps segment has driven massive revenue growth, increasing from $115,655 to $198,759 in 2025. This segment has consistently generated substantial operating income, funding all company operations and investments.
2021-2025 · The Metaverse Investment Cycle
+147%
Concurrently, the Reality Labs segment has been in a heavy investment phase, with revenue remaining minimal ($2,207 million annually) while operating losses have nearly doubled from -$10,193 million to -$19,193 million in 2025, reflecting a massive long-term bet on a new computing platform.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Lagging the market on the 63D window, but 'relative strength' is beginning to stabilize; watch for inflection. Volume and momentum show mild positive lean. The accumulation signals present but not yet dominant. Earnings history is mildly supportive. The reaction or drift are positive but not both at full conviction.
① Structure
-3
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+1
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
+1
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-1 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Potential Bottoming · -
2 Momentum Mixed
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Recovering Relative Strength
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Accumulation
5 Volatility Normal
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Falling
7 Earnings Reaction History Inconsistent
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars
Core Cache Last Updated: 7/22/2026