Meta Platforms (META)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $665.92 | Market Cap: $1.7 TrilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Meta Platforms (META)
Market Price (12/20/2025): $665.92Market Cap: $1.7 TrilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.8x |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43% | Key risksMETA key risks include [1] antitrust litigation threatening the forced divestiture of key assets like Instagram and WhatsApp, Show more. |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 108 Bil, FCF LTM is 45 Bil | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, and Metaverse & Immersive Technologies. Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 43% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 108 Bil, FCF LTM is 45 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, and Metaverse & Immersive Technologies. Show more. |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 8.8x |
| Key risksMETA key risks include [1] antitrust litigation threatening the forced divestiture of key assets like Instagram and WhatsApp, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
META Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points for why Meta Platforms (META) stock moved by -10.7% for the approximate time period from August 31, 2025, to December 20, 2025:
1. One-time $15.9 Billion Tax Charge: Meta Platforms reported a significant one-time, non-cash income tax charge of nearly $16 billion in its Q3 2025 earnings report, released on October 29, 2025. This charge, related to the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," drastically reduced the reported earnings per share (EPS) to $1.05, significantly below analyst expectations and overshadowing otherwise strong revenue performance. This event triggered an immediate stock decline of approximately 8% to 12% in after-hours and subsequent trading.
2. Elevated AI Infrastructure Spending and Profitability Concerns: The company raised its full-year 2025 capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance to $70-$72 billion, an increase from its prior outlook, with expectations for even greater spending in 2026, primarily to build out AI infrastructure. Investors expressed concern regarding the massive scale of these investments and the unclear timeline for tangible returns, which dampened sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| META Return | 33% | 23% | -64% | 194% | 66% | 14% | 226% |
| Peers Return | 122% | 14% | -46% | 68% | 7% | 8% | 164% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| META Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 33% | 92% | 67% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 30% | 68% | 57% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| META Max Drawdown | -29% | -10% | -74% | 0% | -3% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -15% | -53% | -7% | -18% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, SNAP, PINS. See META Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/19/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | META | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 329.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 442 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -34.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -43.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 381 days | 120 days |
Compare to GOOGL, MSFT, Z, SNAP, CHAI
In The Past
Meta Platforms's stock fell -76.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/7/2021. A -76.7% loss requires a 329.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to META. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.2% | -0.2% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.6% | -5.6% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.1% | -3.1% | -5.1% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.4% | 2.4% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -27.7% | -27.7% | -29.8% |
| 04302024 | META | Meta Platforms | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 38.2% | 28.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302022 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 124.1% | 177.0% | -3.5% |
| 05312022 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -43.5% | 36.7% | -54.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.2% | -0.2% | -1.4% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.6% | -5.6% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.1% | -3.1% | -5.1% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.4% | 2.4% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -27.7% | -27.7% | -29.8% |
| 04302024 | META | Meta Platforms | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 38.2% | 28.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302022 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 124.1% | 177.0% | -3.5% |
| 05312022 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -43.5% | 36.7% | -54.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Meta Platforms
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 267.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 2,038.2 |
| Rev LTM | 241,634 |
| Op Inc LTM | 79,042 |
| FCF LTM | 29,161 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 33,360 |
| CFO LTM | 114,356 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 91,245 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2,038.2 |
| P/S | 6.6 |
| P/EBIT | 26.1 |
| P/E | 29.1 |
| P/CFO | 20.4 |
| Total Yield | 3.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -0.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 6.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 136.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -10.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 49.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Family of Apps | 133,006 | 114,450 | 115,655 | 84,826 | |
| Reality Labs | 1,896 | 2,159 | 2,274 | 1,139 | |
| Single Segment | 70,697 | ||||
| Total | 134,902 | 116,609 | 117,929 | 85,965 | 70,697 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Family of Apps | 62,871 | 42,661 | 56,946 | 39,294 | |
| Reality Labs | -16,120 | -13,717 | -10,193 | -6,623 | |
| Total | 46,751 | 28,944 | 46,753 | 32,671 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -11.3% | -15.4% | -14.7% |
| 7/30/2025 | 11.3% | 11.0% | 8.0% |
| 4/30/2025 | 4.2% | 8.7% | 17.9% |
| 1/29/2025 | 1.6% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 10/30/2024 | -4.1% | -3.3% | -3.0% |
| 7/31/2024 | 4.8% | 3.0% | 9.1% |
| 4/24/2024 | -10.6% | -11.0% | -5.6% |
| 2/1/2024 | 20.3% | 19.1% | 26.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 7.7% | 7.4% | 14.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.7% | -5.9% | -4.6% |
| Max Positive | 23.3% | 27.7% | 26.3% |
| Max Negative | -26.4% | -30.3% | -38.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1302025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2022024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
