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Meta Platforms (META)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $644.73 | Market Cap: $1.6 Tril
Sector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Meta Platforms (META)


Market Price (12/15/2025): $644.73
Market Cap: $1.6 Tril
Sector: Communication Services
Industry: Interactive Media & Services

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
 
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 108 Bil, FCF LTM is 45 Bil
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
 
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, and Metaverse & Immersive Technologies. Show more.
 
0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 108 Bil, FCF LTM is 45 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 38%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, and Metaverse & Immersive Technologies. Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

META Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points explaining the approximate -12.7% stock movement for Meta Platforms (symbol: META) from August 31, 2025, to December 15, 2025: **1. Disappointing Q3 2025 Earnings Due to Significant One-Time Tax Charge.** Meta's reported Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $1.05 significantly missed analyst expectations, primarily due to a substantial one-time, non-cash tax charge of $15.9 billion. This tax hit dramatically reduced reported profits, overshadowing otherwise strong revenue growth and leading to an immediate stock drop of 8% to 11.5% in after-hours trading and the following day.

**2. Projected Increase in Capital Expenditures for AI Infrastructure.** Investors reacted negatively to Meta's outlook, which forecasted significantly higher operating and capital expenses in 2026, largely driven by plans to expand its AI infrastructure and increase technical staff compensation. The company also raised its full-year 2025 CapEx guidance to between $70 billion and $72 billion, intensifying concerns about future profitability and potential margin contraction.

**3. Investor Concerns Over Aggressive AI Investment Strategy and Potential Lagging in AI Race.** Reports suggesting Meta's plan to borrow $25 billion from capital markets specifically for AI infrastructure further fueled investor fears that the company might be lagging behind competitors in the AI race. CEO Mark Zuckerberg's statements about being "significantly more aggressive" in AI investment reinforced these concerns, with investors questioning the sustainability and immediate returns of such heavy capital allocation.

**4. Increased Regulatory Scrutiny and Compliance Costs in the EU.** Meta faced ongoing pressure from European Union regulators, which culminated in a decision to offer EU users more control over personalized ads starting in 2026 to comply with regulations like the Digital Markets Act. This, combined with past fines and new antitrust investigations, highlighted increasing regulatory hurdles and the potential for a negative impact on Meta's lucrative advertising business in a key market.

**5. Controversies Surrounding Content Moderation and Account Restrictions.** From October 2025, Meta removed or restricted dozens of accounts belonging to abortion access providers, queer groups, and reproductive health organizations globally, a move that campaigners dubbed one of the "biggest waves of censorship" in years. Such actions raised concerns about content moderation policies, potential user backlash, and reputational damage, which could negatively affect platform engagement and public perception.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
META Return33%23%-64%194%66%12%220%
Peers Return122%14%-46%68%7%10%169%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%16%111%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
META Win Rate58%67%33%92%67%42% 
Peers Win Rate67%58%30%68%57%53% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%73% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
META Max Drawdown-29%-10%-74%0%-3%-17% 
Peers Max Drawdown-27%-15%-53%-7%-18%-23% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, SNAP, PINS. See META Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventMETAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-76.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven329.9%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven442 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-34.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven52.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven65 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-43.0%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven75.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven381 days120 days

Compare to MSFT, GOOGL, Z, SNAP, STUB


In The Past

Meta Platforms's stock fell -76.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/7/2021. A -76.7% loss requires a 329.9% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Meta Platforms (META)

Better Bets than Meta Platforms (META)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to META. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.5%-0.5%-0.5%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-6.4%-6.4%-6.4%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.0%5.0%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
11.6%11.6%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-28.9%-28.9%-28.9%
META_4302024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302024METAMeta PlatformsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
38.2%28.1%0.0%
META_11302022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302022METAMeta PlatformsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
124.1%177.0%-3.5%
META_5312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312022METAMeta PlatformsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-43.5%36.7%-54.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PINS_11302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11302025PINSPinterestMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-0.5%-0.5%-0.5%
TMUS_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025TMUST-Mobile USMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-6.4%-6.4%-6.4%
Z_11212025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper11212025ZZillowMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
5.0%5.0%0.0%
IRDM_11072025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11072025IRDMIridium CommunicationsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
11.6%11.6%-5.6%
TTD_10032025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10032025TTDTrade DeskDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
-28.9%-28.9%-28.9%
META_4302024_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%04302024METAMeta PlatformsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
38.2%28.1%0.0%
META_11302022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE11302022METAMeta PlatformsDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
124.1%177.0%-3.5%
META_5312022_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield05312022METAMeta PlatformsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-43.5%36.7%-54.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Meta Platforms

Peers to compare with:

Financials

METAGOOGLAMZNMSFTSNAPPINSMedian
NameMeta Pla.Alphabet Amazon.c.MicrosoftSnap Pinterest 
Mkt Price644.23309.29226.19478.537.3125.99267.74
Mkt Cap1,621.53,738.12,406.03,556.912.417.62,013.8
Rev LTM189,457385,477670,038293,8125,7724,057241,634
Op Inc LTM81,895124,07776,190135,937-60928079,042
FCF LTM44,84173,55213,48178,0174141,12229,161
FCF 3Y Avg45,04468,99821,67771,30218882533,360
CFO LTM107,574151,424121,137147,0396171,147114,356
CFO 3Y Avg85,513120,99096,977121,38439184391,245

Growth & Margins

METAGOOGLAMZNMSFTSNAPPINSMedian
NameMeta Pla.Alphabet Amazon.c.MicrosoftSnap Pinterest 
Rev Chg LTM21.3%13.4%10.9%15.6%11.7%16.8%14.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg17.3%11.0%11.3%13.2%8.1%13.6%12.2%
Rev Chg Q26.2%15.9%13.3%18.4%9.8%16.8%16.4%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM6.0%3.8%3.0%4.3%2.4%3.9%3.8%
Op Mgn LTM43.2%32.2%11.4%46.3%-10.5%6.9%21.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg37.4%29.9%7.9%44.6%-20.6%-0.2%18.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.8%-0.5%0.3%0.6%1.0%1.4%0.5%
CFO/Rev LTM56.8%39.3%18.1%50.0%10.7%28.3%33.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg54.0%35.3%15.8%47.2%7.3%23.4%29.4%
FCF/Rev LTM23.7%19.1%2.0%26.6%7.2%27.7%21.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg29.0%20.5%3.5%28.0%3.4%22.9%21.7%

Valuation

METAGOOGLAMZNMSFTSNAPPINSMedian
NameMeta Pla.Alphabet Amazon.c.MicrosoftSnap Pinterest 
Mkt Cap1,621.53,738.12,406.03,556.912.417.62,013.8
P/S9.87.63.513.12.35.46.5
P/EBIT21.719.327.429.6-34.177.824.6
P/E31.623.633.136.7-26.311.027.6
P/CFO17.219.419.326.221.219.019.3
Total Yield3.5%4.6%3.0%3.4%-3.8%9.1%3.4%
Dividend Yield0.3%0.3%0.0%0.6%0.0%0.0%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg3.6%3.3%1.1%2.3%1.3%3.9%2.8%
D/E0.00.00.10.00.30.00.0
Net D/E0.0-0.00.0-0.00.1-0.1-0.0

Returns

METAGOOGLAMZNMSFTSNAPPINSMedian
NameMeta Pla.Alphabet Amazon.c.MicrosoftSnap Pinterest 
1M Rtn5.7%12.0%-3.6%-6.2%-14.7%-2.4%-3.0%
3M Rtn-14.7%28.5%-0.9%-6.0%-0.4%-25.8%-3.4%
6M Rtn-5.5%77.3%6.6%1.1%-7.9%-23.2%-2.2%
12M Rtn4.2%63.6%-0.6%7.8%-35.4%-15.2%1.8%
3Y Rtn458.1%243.0%155.7%96.8%-16.6%3.3%126.2%
1M Excs Rtn6.1%8.3%-7.0%-5.9%-19.2%-4.5%-5.2%
3M Excs Rtn-19.0%19.8%-5.5%-10.2%-5.2%-31.5%-7.8%
6M Excs Rtn-19.8%63.1%-7.6%-13.1%-22.2%-37.4%-16.4%
12M Excs Rtn-8.8%54.6%-12.6%-4.4%-54.2%-31.5%-10.7%
3Y Excs Rtn395.4%154.7%82.1%27.0%-95.0%-59.0%54.5%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Family of Apps133,006114,450115,65584,826 
Reality Labs1,8962,1592,2741,139 
Single Segment    70,697
Total134,902116,609117,92985,96570,697


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Family of Apps62,87142,66156,94639,294 
Reality Labs-16,120-13,717-10,193-6,623 
Total46,75128,94446,75332,671 


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11282025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity32,396,587
Short Interest: % Change Since 111520257.4%
Average Daily Volume20,089,981
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.61
Basic Shares Quantity2,517,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/29/2025-11.3%-15.4%-14.7%
7/30/202511.3%11.0%8.0%
4/30/20254.2%8.7%17.9%
1/29/20251.6%4.2%-1.2%
10/30/2024-4.1%-3.3%-3.0%
7/31/20244.8%3.0%9.1%
4/24/2024-10.6%-11.0%-5.6%
2/1/202420.3%19.1%26.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121512
# Negative12912
Median Positive7.7%7.4%14.4%
Median Negative-5.7%-5.9%-4.6%
Max Positive23.3%27.7%26.3%
Max Negative-26.4%-30.3%-38.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251030202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024130202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024801202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023202202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023427202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022202202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022728202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022428202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021203202210-K 12/31/2021