Meta Platforms (META)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $644.73 | Market Cap: $1.6 TrilSector: Communication Services | Industry: Interactive Media & Services
Meta Platforms (META)
Market Price (12/15/2025): $644.73Market Cap: $1.6 TrilSector: Communication ServicesIndustry: Interactive Media & Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 108 Bil, FCF LTM is 45 Bil | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, and Metaverse & Immersive Technologies. Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 21% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 57%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 108 Bil, FCF LTM is 45 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Social Media & Creator Economy, Digital Advertising, and Metaverse & Immersive Technologies. Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
META Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are five key points explaining the approximate -12.7% stock movement for Meta Platforms (symbol: META) from August 31, 2025, to December 15, 2025:
**1. Disappointing Q3 2025 Earnings Due to Significant One-Time Tax Charge.** Meta's reported Q3 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $1.05 significantly missed analyst expectations, primarily due to a substantial one-time, non-cash tax charge of $15.9 billion. This tax hit dramatically reduced reported profits, overshadowing otherwise strong revenue growth and leading to an immediate stock drop of 8% to 11.5% in after-hours trading and the following day.
**2. Projected Increase in Capital Expenditures for AI Infrastructure.** Investors reacted negatively to Meta's outlook, which forecasted significantly higher operating and capital expenses in 2026, largely driven by plans to expand its AI infrastructure and increase technical staff compensation. The company also raised its full-year 2025 CapEx guidance to between $70 billion and $72 billion, intensifying concerns about future profitability and potential margin contraction.
**3. Investor Concerns Over Aggressive AI Investment Strategy and Potential Lagging in AI Race.** Reports suggesting Meta's plan to borrow $25 billion from capital markets specifically for AI infrastructure further fueled investor fears that the company might be lagging behind competitors in the AI race. CEO Mark Zuckerberg's statements about being "significantly more aggressive" in AI investment reinforced these concerns, with investors questioning the sustainability and immediate returns of such heavy capital allocation.
**4. Increased Regulatory Scrutiny and Compliance Costs in the EU.** Meta faced ongoing pressure from European Union regulators, which culminated in a decision to offer EU users more control over personalized ads starting in 2026 to comply with regulations like the Digital Markets Act. This, combined with past fines and new antitrust investigations, highlighted increasing regulatory hurdles and the potential for a negative impact on Meta's lucrative advertising business in a key market.
**5. Controversies Surrounding Content Moderation and Account Restrictions.** From October 2025, Meta removed or restricted dozens of accounts belonging to abortion access providers, queer groups, and reproductive health organizations globally, a move that campaigners dubbed one of the "biggest waves of censorship" in years. Such actions raised concerns about content moderation policies, potential user backlash, and reputational damage, which could negatively affect platform engagement and public perception.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| META Return | 33% | 23% | -64% | 194% | 66% | 12% | 220% |
| Peers Return | 122% | 14% | -46% | 68% | 7% | 10% | 169% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| META Win Rate | 58% | 67% | 33% | 92% | 67% | 42% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 58% | 30% | 68% | 57% | 53% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 73% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| META Max Drawdown | -29% | -10% | -74% | 0% | -3% | -17% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -27% | -15% | -53% | -7% | -18% | -23% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, SNAP, PINS. See META Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/12/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | META | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -76.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 329.9% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 442 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -34.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.9% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 65 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -43.0% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 75.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 381 days | 120 days |
Compare to MSFT, GOOGL, Z, SNAP, STUB
In The Past
Meta Platforms's stock fell -76.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 9/7/2021. A -76.7% loss requires a 329.9% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to META. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.4% | -6.4% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -28.9% |
| 04302024 | META | Meta Platforms | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 38.2% | 28.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302022 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 124.1% | 177.0% | -3.5% |
| 05312022 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -43.5% | 36.7% | -54.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | PINS | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -0.5% | -0.5% | -0.5% | |
| 11212025 | TMUS | T-Mobile US | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -6.4% | -6.4% | -6.4% |
| 11212025 | Z | Zillow | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 11072025 | IRDM | Iridium Communications | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 11.6% | 11.6% | -5.6% |
| 10032025 | TTD | Trade Desk | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -28.9% | -28.9% | -28.9% |
| 04302024 | META | Meta Platforms | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 38.2% | 28.1% | 0.0% |
| 11302022 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 124.1% | 177.0% | -3.5% |
| 05312022 | META | Meta Platforms | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -43.5% | 36.7% | -54.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Meta Platforms
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 267.74 |
| Mkt Cap | 2,013.8 |
| Rev LTM | 241,634 |
| Op Inc LTM | 79,042 |
| FCF LTM | 29,161 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 33,360 |
| CFO LTM | 114,356 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 91,245 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 14.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 12.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.8% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.5% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 33.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 29.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 21.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 21.7% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 2,013.8 |
| P/S | 6.5 |
| P/EBIT | 24.6 |
| P/E | 27.6 |
| P/CFO | 19.3 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.8% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 1.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 126.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -16.4% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -10.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 54.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Family of Apps | 133,006 | 114,450 | 115,655 | 84,826 | |
| Reality Labs | 1,896 | 2,159 | 2,274 | 1,139 | |
| Single Segment | 70,697 | ||||
| Total | 134,902 | 116,609 | 117,929 | 85,965 | 70,697 |
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Family of Apps | 62,871 | 42,661 | 56,946 | 39,294 | |
| Reality Labs | -16,120 | -13,717 | -10,193 | -6,623 | |
| Total | 46,751 | 28,944 | 46,753 | 32,671 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -11.3% | -15.4% | -14.7% |
| 7/30/2025 | 11.3% | 11.0% | 8.0% |
| 4/30/2025 | 4.2% | 8.7% | 17.9% |
| 1/29/2025 | 1.6% | 4.2% | -1.2% |
| 10/30/2024 | -4.1% | -3.3% | -3.0% |
| 7/31/2024 | 4.8% | 3.0% | 9.1% |
| 4/24/2024 | -10.6% | -11.0% | -5.6% |
| 2/1/2024 | 20.3% | 19.1% | 26.3% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 15 | 12 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 7.7% | 7.4% | 14.4% |
| Median Negative | -5.7% | -5.9% | -4.6% |
| Max Positive | 23.3% | 27.7% | 26.3% |
| Max Negative | -26.4% | -30.3% | -38.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10302025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1302025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4252024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2022024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2022023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
