Phases of COVID-19 crisis:
Early- to mid-March 2020:
Fear of the coronavirus outbreak spreading rapidly translates into
reality, with the number of cases accelerating globallyLate-March 2020 onward:
Social distancing measures + lockdownsApril 2020:
Fed stimulus suppresses near-term survival anxietyMay-June 2020:
Recovery of demand, with gradual lifting of lockdowns - no panic anymore despite a steady increase in the number of casesJuly-November 2020:
Weak Q2 and Q3 results, but continued
improvement in demand and progress with vaccine development buoy market sentiment
Despite the recent surge in the number of new Covid-19 cases in the U.S., we expect continued improvement in demand to buoy market expectations. As investors focus their attention on expected 2021 results, we believe Dillard's stock has the potential for strong gains once fears surrounding the Covid outbreak are put to rest. That said, the pressure on the company's balance sheet remains a significant risk factor to the realization of these gains.