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Bitcoin (BTCUSD)


Market Price (1/11/2026): $90,513.10

Bitcoin (BTCUSD)


Market Price (1/11/2026): $90,513.10

Key Metrics

Market Cap (MC)$1,808.2 BilRank #1
Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV)$1,808.2 BilMC/FDV: 100.0%
24hr Trading Volume (Vol)$34.7 BilVol/MC: 0.02%
Sentiment Score49.06[Scale: -100 to 100]
 Count 
Total Supply19,974,850 
Circulating Supply19,974,850100.0% of Total
Max Supply21,000,000 
  All-Time HighAll-Time Low
Level126,080.0067.81
Reached On2025-10-062013-07-06
Distance From-28.1%133,515.6%
     
Link toHomepageWhitepaper

BTCUSD

Return (1M):

Price Scenario Calculator


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Why The Cryptocurrency Moved


Qualitative Assessment

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From October 31, 2025, to January 12, 2026, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) experienced a decline of approximately 17.2%. The price of Bitcoin closed at $109,556.16 on October 31, 2025, and was trading around $90,709.49 on January 12, 2026. This movement was influenced by several key factors:

1. October All-Time High and Subsequent Correction: Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of over $126,000 in early October 2025, a significant peak that was followed by a sharp correction, breaking its seven-year "Uptober" winning streak by closing October in the red with a decline between 3.35% and 3.69%. This suggests a natural pullback after an accelerated rally.

2. Liquidity Crisis and Negative Market Sentiment: Around October 10, 2025, Bitcoin experienced a "liquidity crisis" where fearful market participants pulled capital, leading to "violent gaps down in price". This period was also characterized by "horrible retail sentiment," contributing to a bearish environment from October through December.

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Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
BTCUSD Return60%-64%155%121%-6%4%214%
Peers Return869%-62%57%147%-30%12%1015%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%1%84%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
BTCUSD Win Rate50%33%75%67%50%100% 
Peers Win Rate58%33%60%52%38%100% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%100% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
BTCUSD Max Drawdown0%-66%0%-7%-18%0% 
Peers Max Drawdown-5%-70%-7%-21%-41%0% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%0% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: ETHUSD, LTCUSD, XLMUSD, XRPUSD, DOGEUSD.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 1/9/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventBTCUSDS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-76.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven328.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven469 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-51.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven107.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven137 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-81.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven446.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven704 days120 days

Compare to ETHUSD, LTCUSD, XLMUSD, XRPUSD, DOGEUSD

In The Past

Bitcoin's stock fell -76.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/8/2021. A -76.6% loss requires a 328.0% gain to breakeven.

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About Bitcoin (BTCUSD)

Bitcoin is the world's first decentralized cryptocurrency, created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto. It enables peer-to-peer electronic cash transactions without intermediaries like banks or governments, operating on a blockchain secured by Proof of Work mining and the SHA-256 cryptographic algorithm. With a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins and programmatic halvings every four years that reduce miner rewards, Bitcoin is designed as a deflationary digital asset often called "digital gold." Its value stems from solving the double-spending problem without trusted intermediaries, creating the first truly scarce digital asset with censorship resistance and permissionless access that no government, corporation, or individual can control. Bitcoin operates as a decentralized peer-to-peer network where transactions are recorded on a public ledger called the blockchain, distributed across thousands of computers globally. Transactions are grouped into blocks added approximately every 10 minutes through mining, where specialized computers compete to solve complex mathematical puzzles. Bitcoin has achieved mainstream adoption through multiple vectors. The January 2024 SEC approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs opened Bitcoin investment to traditional finance participants, and corporations like Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) are using Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset to protect against currency debasement, offering MSTR holders amplified exposure to Bitcoin. The Bitcoin ecosystem continues to evolve with innovations like Ordinals, which emerged in January 2023 to enable NFT-like functionality directly on Bitcoin, and BRC-20 tokens, an experimental standard for creating fungible tokens using Ordinal inscriptions. BTCFi (Bitcoin Finance) represents emerging financial applications extending beyond Bitcoin's traditional role, with protocols like Babylon allowing Bitcoin holders to stake BTC to secure Proof of Stake chains.

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1. Digital Gold: Bitcoin is often compared to gold because it's a scarce, durable, and unforgeable asset used as a store of value, but entirely digital and transmissible over the internet.

2. A Global, Public Ledger: Imagine a global, public spreadsheet that tracks every transaction and is maintained by thousands of independent computers worldwide, making it transparent, immutable, and resistant to censorship.

3. The Coca-Cola of Digital Assets: Bitcoin is the original and most recognized cryptocurrency, much like Coca-Cola is the iconic, first-mover brand in soft drinks โ€“ widely known, globally traded, and often seen as the benchmark.

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Primary Utility:

Bitcoin primarily functions as a Store of Value.


Use Cases:

  • Store of Value: It acts as "digital gold," a long-term asset resistant to inflation and governmental censorship.
  • Medium of Exchange: It can be used to purchase goods and services where accepted, offering a peer-to-peer electronic cash system.
  • Remittances: It facilitates cross-border money transfers, often with lower fees and faster settlement times than traditional banking.
  • Investment/Speculation: Individuals and institutions invest in or trade Bitcoin on exchanges, betting on its future price appreciation.
  • Censorship-Resistant Transactions: It provides a means to send and receive value without reliance on central authorities, offering financial sovereignty.

AI Analysis | Feedback

For the cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTCUSD), its primary target audience or user base has evolved significantly since its inception and now primarily centers around investors (both retail and institutional) who view it as a store of value and a macro asset, often dubbed "digital gold."


  • Developers (to build dApps): Bitcoin is not primarily designed as a platform for building decentralized applications (dApps) in the same way as smart contract platforms like Ethereum. While some development occurs on second-layer solutions (e.g., Lightning Network) and sidechains, the core Bitcoin blockchain's scripting capabilities are limited, and it does not target dApp developers as its main audience.
  • Retail users (for payments/gaming): While Bitcoin was originally conceived as "peer-to-peer electronic cash" and can facilitate payments (especially efficiently via Layer 2 solutions like the Lightning Network), its primary use for the majority of retail users has shifted towards long-term investment, wealth preservation, and as a hedge against inflation or currency debasement. Gaming is not a primary direct use case for Bitcoin's core value proposition.
  • Institutional investors (for custody/settlement): This is a significantly growing segment. Institutional investors (e.g., hedge funds, asset managers, corporations, family offices) are increasingly allocating capital to Bitcoin as a legitimate asset class for portfolio diversification, inflation hedging, and exposure to a new digital economy. They are interested in secure custody, large-scale settlement, and regulated investment vehicles (like Bitcoin ETFs). This group, alongside retail investors seeking similar benefits, represents a core part of Bitcoin's primary audience for its role as a store of value.

In summary, Bitcoin's primary audience comprises investors, both individual (retail) and large-scale (institutional), who are interested in its properties as a decentralized, scarce, censorship-resistant, and global store of value and a new macro asset class.

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  • Custodial Services & Exchanges:
    • Coinbase (retail and institutional custody, major exchange)
    • Binance (major exchange, custody services)
    • Fidelity Digital Assets (institutional-grade custody)
    • Kraken (major exchange, custody)
    • Grayscale Investments (manages large Bitcoin investment trusts)
    • Block (formerly Square) (enables Bitcoin buying/selling and payments via Cash App)
  • Layer 2 & Sidechain Infrastructure:
    • Lightning Network (key contributors include Lightning Labs, Blockstream, ACINQ - enabling fast, low-cost transactions)
    • Rootstock (RSK) (EVM-compatible smart contract platform secured by Bitcoin's proof-of-work)
    • Stacks (smart contract platform that uses Bitcoin for security and settlement)
    • Blockstream (core contributors to Bitcoin development, developer of Liquid Network sidechain)
  • Payment Processors & Fintech Solutions:
    • BitPay (crypto payment processing for merchants)
    • OpenNode (Bitcoin and Lightning Network payment processor)

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The original founder of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, is anonymous. Satoshi Nakamoto is a pseudonym for the individual or group who authored the Bitcoin white paper in 2008 and released the first Bitcoin software in 2009. Nakamoto was active in Bitcoin's development until late 2010 or early 2011 before disappearing.
Other original or early core developers and contributors include:
  • Satoshi Nakamoto: Creator, author of the white paper, and initial implementer of Bitcoin software.
  • Hal Finney: Cryptographic pioneer, early adopter, and recipient of the first Bitcoin transaction.
  • Wei Dai: Creator of b-money, a predecessor to Bitcoin.
  • Nick Szabo: Creator of bit gold, another Bitcoin predecessor, and an early supporter.
  • Gavin Andresen: Lead developer after Satoshi Nakamoto's departure and founder of the Bitcoin Foundation.
  • Martti Malmi: Early Bitcoin developer involved with Bitcoin.org.
  • Jeff Garzik: An early contributor to the Bitcoin codebase and influential developer.
  • Wladimir J. van der Laan: Took over as lead maintainer of Bitcoin Core after Andresen.
  • Pieter Wuille: Bitcoin Core developer and maintainer.
  • Marco Falke: Bitcoin Core developer and maintainer.
  • Jonas Schnelli: Bitcoin Core developer and maintainer.
  • Samuel Dobson: Bitcoin Core maintainer.
  • John Newbery: Bitcoin Core developer.
  • Gennady Stepanov: Bitcoin Core developer.
  • Michael Ford: Bitcoin Core developer.
  • Andrew Chou: Bitcoin Core developer.
  • Gloria Zhao: Bitcoin Core developer.

Bitcoin's current governance structure is decentralized. It is not run by a centralized company or a non-profit Foundation in terms of core protocol control. Instead, its development and evolution rely on a complex and collaborative decision-making process involving developers, miners, and node operators. Decisions regarding the Bitcoin protocol are typically made through a peer-reviewed process, such as Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs), which require community consensus for implementation.

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The cryptocurrency Bitcoin has been involved in several significant past controversies:

  • 2010 Value Overflow Incident: An exploit discovered in August 2010 allowed for the creation of 184 billion bitcoins due to a bug in the protocol's transaction verification. The issue was quickly identified, and the blockchain was rolled back by the community to remove the fraudulent transactions, demonstrating an early vulnerability in the protocol itself.
  • Mt. Gox Hack (2014): One of the largest cryptocurrency exchange hacks in history resulted in the loss of hundreds of thousands of bitcoins from the then-dominant exchange. While this was a hack of a centralized exchange and not a direct compromise of the Bitcoin protocol, its immense scale significantly impacted Bitcoin's early reputation and highlighted the risks associated with centralized custodianship of the decentralized asset.
  • Transaction Malleability: A characteristic of the Bitcoin protocol, prevalent before the Segregated Witness (SegWit) upgrade, allowed for a transaction's ID (TXID) to be altered before it was confirmed on the blockchain, without changing the transaction's validity. This complicated transaction tracking for exchanges and was a contributing factor in the operational challenges and confusion surrounding the Mt. Gox incident. It represented a protocol-level weakness that was eventually addressed through a soft fork.

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The cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTCUSD) faces several key risks to its project, primarily stemming from regulatory uncertainty, centralization concerns, and potential technical vulnerabilities. These risks are ordered from most significant to less significant based on current evidence and potential impact.
  1. Regulatory Risks

    The evolving and often inconsistent global regulatory landscape presents a significant risk to Bitcoin. Governments and regulatory bodies worldwide are still determining how to classify and oversee cryptocurrencies. This uncertainty can lead to abrupt changes in legislation regarding Bitcoin's legality, its use in transactions, and its tax treatment. A major concern is the potential for Bitcoin to be classified as a security in certain jurisdictions, which would subject it to stringent regulations and compliance requirements not currently in place. Furthermore, a lack of clear regulatory frameworks means fewer consumer protections exist for Bitcoin investors compared to traditional financial assets, offering limited recourse in cases of theft or fraud.

  2. Centralization Risks

    Despite Bitcoin's design for decentralization, there are growing concerns about centralization, particularly within mining operations and ownership. A handful of large mining pools now control a significant portion of the network's processing power, raising the theoretical risk of a "51% attack" where a coordinated group could manipulate transactions or disrupt the network. Although a 51% attack on Bitcoin is considered highly improbable due to the immense cost and the self-defeating nature of such an action, the perception of this vulnerability can erode trust. Additionally, the increasing concentration of Bitcoin ownership by large institutional entities, such as ETFs and corporations, introduces risks of market manipulation and heightened volatility, potentially undermining Bitcoin's decentralized ethos and attracting further regulatory scrutiny.

  3. Technical Risks

    Bitcoin faces technical risks, some immediate and others long-term. In the distant future, the advent of sufficiently powerful quantum computing could pose an existential threat by potentially breaking the elliptic curve cryptography that secures Bitcoin wallets, allowing private keys to be derived from public ones and funds to be drained. More immediate technical vulnerabilities include software bugs or errors that could arise from network updates, potentially impacting performance or security. The reliance on complex technology also makes Bitcoin holders vulnerable to cyber threats such as hacking of exchanges and individual wallets, and the irreversible nature of Bitcoin transactions means that funds sent to the wrong address or lost due to forgotten private keys are often irrecoverable.

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The cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTCUSD) primarily intends to disrupt the Global Financial Services Market.


The global financial services market was valued at $31.1 trillion in 2023, grew to $33.5 trillion in 2024, and is projected to reach $44.9 trillion by 2028, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.6%. Another estimate indicates the market size grew from $33,771.42 billion in 2024 to $36,130.35 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to $47,552.51 billion in 2029. This broad market encompasses various segments such as lending and payments, insurance and reinsurance, insurance brokerage, investments, and foreign exchange services. Bitcoin's disruptive innovation is framed by its potential to redefine global finance, addressing issues like remittance costs and enabling cross-border transactions. While Bitcoin has shown utility in reducing remittance costs, the global remittance market, which was valued at $784.25 billion in 2022 and is estimated to reach $1,329.92 billion by 2032, represents a smaller component of this broader financial disruption.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are 3-5 drivers of value accrual for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) over the next 2-3 years:


  1. Programmatic Scarcity and Halving Events: Bitcoin's hard-capped supply of 21 million coins and its programmed halving events inherently create deflationary pressure. Approximately every four years, the reward for mining new blocks is cut by 50%, reducing the rate at which new Bitcoins enter circulation. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, decreasing the block reward to 3.125 BTC. Historically, these events have been followed by periods of significant price appreciation, often beginning 6 to 12 months post-halving, as reduced supply meets consistent or increasing demand.

  2. Increasing Institutional Adoption and Regulated Investment Products: The approval and launch of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in major markets, such as the United States in January 2024, have significantly enhanced accessibility for institutional investors and traditional financial platforms. This increased accessibility and liquidity are expected to drive substantial capital inflows and demand for Bitcoin. Institutions are increasingly integrating Bitcoin into their portfolios, viewing it as a strategic allocation and a potential hedge, with some analyses suggesting ETF demand can significantly outweigh new Bitcoin supply.

  3. Growing Utility through Layer 2 Solutions and Innovation:

    • Layer 2 Solutions (e.g., Lightning Network): Protocols built on top of the Bitcoin blockchain, like the Lightning Network, aim to enhance its scalability and efficiency. These Layer 2 solutions enable faster and cheaper transactions by processing them off the main chain, thereby expanding Bitcoin's utility beyond just a store of value to include micro-transactions and more complex applications like DeFi. This increased practical utility can drive broader adoption and demand for the underlying BTC token.
    • Ordinals and Inscriptions: The emergence of Ordinals allows for inscribing data directly onto individual satoshis (the smallest unit of Bitcoin), effectively enabling non-fungible tokens (NFTs) on the Bitcoin blockchain. This innovation introduces new use cases for the network, generates additional transaction fees, and leverages Bitcoin's robust security and immutability for unique digital assets, contributing to increased network activity and potential value.

  4. Global Macroeconomic Conditions and Safe-Haven Asset Status: Bitcoin's perception as "digital gold" or a hedge against inflation and economic instability is a significant driver of value. During periods of geopolitical uncertainty, fiat currency debasement, or monetary easing by central banks, demand for Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset tends to increase. Growing interest from central banks in evaluating Bitcoin's role in future payments and reserves further underscores its potential as a global macroeconomic asset.

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Supply Dynamics and Treasury Management for Bitcoin (BTCUSD)


1. Max Supply vs Circulating Supply
Bitcoin (BTC) has a strictly enforced maximum supply of 21 million coins, a fundamental characteristic ingrained in its code since its inception. As of 2024, approximately 20 million bitcoins are in circulation, representing over 93% of the total supply cap. The remaining ~1 million BTC will be gradually released through mining rewards, with the circulating supply expected to reach the maximum limit around the year 2140. It is also estimated that a significant portion, around 1.8 million bitcoin, is presumably lost forever due to factors like forgotten private keys or discarded storage devices, effectively reducing the accessible circulating supply.


2. Inflation/Emission Schedule
Bitcoin's emission schedule is designed to be predictably deflationary over the long term, even though new coins are still being introduced into circulation. This is primarily governed by a programmed event known as "halving," which occurs approximately every four years, or specifically, every 210,000 blocks mined. During a halving, the reward miners receive for successfully adding a new block to the blockchain is cut in half. The most recent halving took place in April 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. The next halving is projected for around April 2028, at which point the reward will be further reduced to 1.5625 BTC. This consistent reduction in the issuance rate causes Bitcoin's annual inflation rate to decrease over time.


3. Treasury Grants/Ecosystem Funds
While Bitcoin does not have a centralized treasury in the traditional sense, several organizations and initiatives provide grants and support to foster its open-source ecosystem and technical development. Btrust Grants, for instance, offer financial assistance to developers, educators, and event organizers working to strengthen the Bitcoin open-source ecosystem, particularly in regions like Africa, India, Latin America, MENA, and Southeast Asia. The Maelstrom Fund also has a Bitcoin Grant Program aimed at supporting the technical development of Bitcoin, with grants ranging from $50,000 to $150,000 per developer, allowing for contributions to projects like Bitcoin Core software. Other notable entities providing grants for Bitcoin and Web3 development include Brink, Spiral, OpenSat, Human Rights Foundation (HRF), Rootstock, Stacks, Okcoin, and Kraken. Additionally, venture capital funds like the 2140 Bitcoin Ecosystem Fund specifically invest in Web3 and blockchain startups, supporting the broader Bitcoin ecosystem.


4. Token Burns
Bitcoin's protocol does not incorporate a deliberate "token burn" mechanism to permanently remove coins from circulation. The scarcity of Bitcoin is instead ensured by its fixed maximum supply of 21 million and its predictable halving schedule. However, a significant amount of Bitcoin has been effectively removed from circulation over time due to various factors, most notably the loss of private keys. These "presumably lost coins" are inaccessible and thus permanently out of circulation, functioning as an unintentional form of supply reduction. Estimates suggest that approximately 1.8 million BTC may be lost.

More From Trefis

Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$90,513.10 
Distance from 52W High-27.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$83,645.65$104,282.37
DMA Trendindeterminatedown
Distance from DMA8.2%-13.2%
 3M1YR
Volatility31.5%34.4%
Downside Capture0.350.27
Upside Capture-0.7386.82
Correlation (SPY)59.3%42.0%
BTCUSD Betas & Captures as of 12/31/2025

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.581.721.981.820.860.96
Up Beta-0.391.621.851.430.911.01
Down Beta2.501.812.012.170.340.90
Up Capture112%66%113%130%107%169%
Bmk +ve Days11233772143431
Stock +ve Days10172860125386
Down Capture184%233%237%199%117%91%
Bmk -ve Days11182755108320
Stock -ve Days12243667126366

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
 BTCUSD vs. Other Asset Classes (Last 1Y)
 BTCUSDEquityGoldCommoditiesReal Estate
Annualized Return-11.3%17.6%70.4%6.4%5.3%
Annualized Volatility34.6%19.3%19.9%15.4%16.9%
Sharpe Ratio-0.150.712.570.200.14
Correlation With Other Assets 39.8%9.5%22.0%20.4%

ETFs used for asset classes: Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
 BTCUSD vs. Other Asset Classes (Last 5Y)
 BTCUSDEquityGoldCommoditiesReal Estate
Annualized Return22.5%14.7%18.4%11.6%4.9%
Annualized Volatility48.4%17.1%15.7%18.8%18.9%
Sharpe Ratio0.480.690.940.500.17
Correlation With Other Assets 37.9%8.3%11.8%25.3%

ETFs used for asset classes: Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
 BTCUSD vs. Other Asset Classes (Last 10Y)
 BTCUSDEquityGoldCommoditiesReal Estate
Annualized Return70.7%14.9%15.1%7.0%5.3%
Annualized Volatility55.7%18.0%14.8%17.6%20.8%
Sharpe Ratio0.910.710.840.320.22
Correlation With Other Assets 25.4%10.6%10.1%17.1%

ETFs used for asset classes: Equity = SPY, Gold = GLD, Commodities = DBC, Real Estate = VNQ
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How