Could Williams-Sonoma Stock’s Winning Streak Be Luck?

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Williams-Sonoma (WSM), the home furnishings retailer behind Pottery Barn and West Elm, has beaten the S&P 500 in each of the last four years. A record like that looks like proof of an exceptional company, one that keeps getting things right year after year. So among 486 large U.S. stocks, how many do you think managed the same streak?

How Rare Is Williams-Sonoma’s Winning Streak?

After trailing the index the year before, Williams-Sonoma stock beat the S&P 500 in each of the four years to November 11, 2026. The price changes below leave out dividends.

We measured today’s S&P 500 members with five years of prices. Out of those 486 stocks, only 16 beat the index in all four of those years.

Even one good year is no sure thing. In the latest year 53.3% of these stocks beat the index, and in the year before only 32% did. So beating the index in any one year is far from certain, and four in a row is rare.

Could A Streak Like This Be Luck?

Among this many stocks, a few will naturally build long streaks even if no single company is better run than the rest. About four in ten of these stocks beat the index in a typical year of the streak.

Now suppose pure luck decides the winners. Imagine putting all 486 names in a hat each year and pulling out four in ten of them. Repeat that process four years in a row, and about 12 names will emerge every single time. That many companies would post a four-year winning streak with no skill involved at all.

In fact 16 companies have such a streak, about a third more than luck alone would give. That gap over luck is small, and the count leaves out companies that left the index. So the share price cannot show whether any of the 16 are there on merit.

Did Williams-Sonoma’s Profit Grow Through The Streak?

Williams-Sonoma saw its twelve-month profit rise in three of the four years of the streak. The first year, to November 6, 2023, was the exception: profit fell 19.2%, and the stock still beat the index.

Over the entire streak, however, profit ended almost where it started. It edged up 0.3%, while the stock climbed 347.6%. The latest profit figure also includes a one-time tariff refund that management said lifted results in the quarter ended August 2, 2026. So while the streak had rising profit in most of the individual years, it had almost none over the four years combined. That is evidence a reader can check, not a ruling on skill or luck.

What To Watch Instead Of The Streak

On the August 26, 2026 call, management pointed to its business-to-business arm, B2B, saying it grew 14.5% in the quarter with record-breaking demand. Management also raised its full-year outlook, now expecting comparable brand revenue growth of 4% to 6.5%. Both are sales figures, and they matter to the streak question only if they lift profit.

A streak is a record of the share price, while what the business earns shows up in its profit. The figure to watch is Williams-Sonoma’s profit growth over twelve months, which the company is expected to report in November 2026.

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