Was The Run In Applied Materials Stock Hiding In Plain Sight?

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Investors holding Applied Materials (AMAT) stock from the November 3, 2025 close to November 4, 2026 earned 56.3%, against 13.5% for the S&P 500. Shares had already climbed 54.6% in the six months to November 3, 2025. Over that year, chipmakers rushed to build capacity for artificial intelligence, and management said in August 2026 that demand for advanced chips far exceeded supply. So what could you have seen of that demand before November 2025?

What Applied Materials Said And Launched Before November 2025

An early hint arrived a year prior. During the fiscal Q4 2024 call held on November 14, 2024, management emphasized that AI and energy-efficient computing would serve as the primary twin drivers unifying industry innovation

Applied’s sales did not yet reflect that demand. Across the five quarters filed before November 2025, covering the period through the quarter ended July 2025, revenue grew between 4.8% and 7.7% from a year earlier. The company then forecast a $600 million hit to fiscal 2026 revenue on October 2, 2025, after the U.S. widened its list of restricted exports.

The clearest sign appeared five days later. Applied unveiled new chipmaking systems on October 7, 2025, aimed at AI chips across three areas: leading-edge logic, memory including high-bandwidth memory, and advanced packaging. Management said in August 2026 that those same three areas matter most for the performance, power efficiency and cost of AI chips. The company expected them to make up about 80% of the growth in the market for chipmaking equipment in 2026 and 2027. The signs were in what Applied said and built, not in its sales growth.

Applied Materials’ Sales Fell Before They Jumped

Sales caught up only late in the twelve months. Applied’s first report inside that stretch arrived on November 13, 2025, showing revenue down 3.5% from a year earlier for the quarter ended October 2025. Revenue fell again, by 2.1%, in the quarter ended January 2026 before growth turned to 11.4% in the quarter ended April 2026. Revenue then rose 24.8% to $9.12 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, the quarter ended July 2026.

Most of that revenue came from chipmaking systems. Applied’s Semiconductor Systems segment brought in a record $7 billion of the total, management said on the August 13, 2026 call. Foundry logic revenue hit a record within that segment, while DRAM revenue, which includes packaging for high-bandwidth memory, grew 52% from a year earlier. Both are areas the October 2025 launch had named.

Is Applied Materials Still Seeing More AI Demand?

Management expects so. At an investor presentation on October 13, 2026, Applied said its position in materials engineering should let it outgrow overall spending on chipmaking equipment over the coming years. On the August 13, 2026 call, the company guided revenue for fiscal Q4 2026 to $10.25 billion, plus or minus $500 million, up 51% from a year earlier. It said its largest customers were giving it longer-term commitments, and it expected its packaging revenue to grow more than 70% in calendar 2026.

That is still only a forecast. Meanwhile, Applied Materials stock fell 30.3% from October 6 to November 4, 2026, while the S&P 500 lost 1.6%.

The figure to watch is revenue from Semiconductor Systems, which management guided to about $7.9 billion for fiscal Q4 2026. Applied is expected to report that quarter in November 2026.

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