How Much Downside Is Left In Moderna Stock?

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Moderna (MRNA) stock fell 17.6% on October 22, 2026, while the S&P 500 slipped 1.2%. Even after that drop, the shares are up 637.1% over the past year, compared with 15.1% for the S&P 500, leaving holders with a large gain at stake. If the market turns again, the question is how much further the stock could drop on top of this fall: when the whole market has turned before, how far did Moderna stock fall, and how long did it stay down?

How Far Moderna Stock Fell, And For How Long

Moderna stock fell an average of 31.4% across the seven market shocks since its first trading day in December 2018, compared with a 15.9% decline for the S&P 500. The stock recorded its deepest decline in a market shock during the 2022 inflation shock and Fed tightening. In that period, Moderna lost 50.0%, about twice the 24.0% drop in the S&P 500.

Shareholders have often faced a long wait for the stock to recover. From its lowest close, Moderna took a median of 8.0 months to return to its earlier high, with three of the seven recoveries taking more than a year. The slowest rebound followed the 2022 fall. That recovery took 52.1 months, and the stock only got back to that high on October 15, 2026. The October 22 fall took it back below that level.

How Big Is Moderna’s Business Now Against Its Past?

Moderna generated $2.21 billion in revenue over the twelve months to June 30, 2026, down from $22.3 billion in the twelve months to June 30, 2022. The company also loses more on each dollar of sales than it did a year ago. Its operating loss reached 150.2% of revenue over the latest twelve months, compared with 107.1% a year earlier.

The COVID business still generates most of Moderna’s sales, bringing in $1.81 billion of the company’s $1.92 billion revenue in fiscal 2025. The company maintains light borrowing levels, however. Moderna’s debt equals 1.6% of its market value, compared with 19.7% for the S&P 500.

What Risks Has Moderna’s Management Flagged?

During its July 31, 2026 call, management said its forecast of up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 factors in potential future declines in COVID vaccination rates. The forecast also assumes no revenue from mCOMBRIAX, a combined flu and COVID vaccine Moderna is preparing to launch in 2027.

The same call also disclosed a pipeline setback. The Phase III study of mRNA-1403, Moderna’s norovirus vaccine, did not meet the statistical criteria for early success at its interim analysis. The study remains blinded, and the company is preparing to enroll a fourth cohort. According to management, cases counted toward the study’s main goal have come in a little more slowly.

Moderna’s cash is also shrinking. The company ended June with $6.9 billion in cash and investments, and it paid $950 million toward a litigation settlement in July. Management expects cash and investments of $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion at the end of 2026. Moderna is expected to report its fiscal Q3 2026 results in November 2026. Its cash and investments balance, the first to include the settlement payment, is the figure to watch.

How To Act On MRNA?

Not necessarily on Moderna alone, if your goal is long-term wealth. Wealth is built by owning the companies that keep outperforming, the leaders of their industries, wherever they are. Here is one company from Moderna’s own industry that has beaten it. Over the five years to October 2026, Roivant Sciences stock rose 451%, while Moderna stock fell 38%.

Finding companies like these takes comparison across industries and sectors, and that is what the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio does. It holds 30 quality companies in equal weight and, since its inception in September 2020, has returned more than 105%, ahead of a benchmark that combines the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap and Russell 2000. See how we find the leaders.

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