What Could Surprise Palantir Stock Investors On The Upside?
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) stock trades at 153.2 times its earnings over the past twelve months, compared with 23.0 for the S&P 500. Buyers paying that price appear to be betting on sustained expansion. During an August 3 call, management pointed to a single customer segment outpacing the rest of the business and raised its 2026 forecast for that group. Who are those customers, and how much are they already buying?
Palantir’s American Business Customers Are Buying Fastest
Those customers are American companies. Palantir generated $764 million in U.S. commercial revenue during the second quarter of fiscal 2026, a 149% increase from a year earlier. Sales to the U.S. government, the company’s other major domestic market, grew 90% over the same period, meaning domestic corporate sales are expanding faster than sales to the government.
The client roster is expanding alongside those sales, though at a slower pace. Palantir finished the quarter with 653 U.S. commercial customers. That total is up 35% from a year earlier, suggesting individual clients are spending more on average.
Newly signed contracts reflect a similar trend. U.S. commercial bookings, which track the total value of agreements signed during the quarter, climbed 153% from a year earlier to a record $2.132 billion. That figure is almost three times the U.S. commercial revenue generated over the same three months. However, bookings count the full value of contracts, and management noted that some of these deals extend for three years.
Questions like this one test every retirement plan. If your advisor recently retired, it is a good moment for a free second opinion from our partner firm.
How Big Could Palantir’s Sales To American Companies Get?
Management expects U.S. commercial revenue to exceed $3.424 billion in 2026, representing growth of at least 134%. That target would account for about 42% of the $8.15 billion to $8.158 billion in total revenue the company forecast for the year. While both figures are projections rather than reported results, they demonstrate that sales to American companies have evolved past being a side business for Palantir.
The share price appears to assume a good deal of that growth already. Palantir trades at 75.1 times its sales over the past twelve months, while the S&P 500 trades at 3.1 times. The stock delivered a 54.6% return from July 22 to October 20, 2026, compared with 3.1% for the index. On October 20, shares closed 7.9% below their highest close of the past year.
What Does Palantir Have To Deliver Next?
Palantir must translate its U.S. commercial projections into reported revenue, but executives established a harder goal on top of that during the August call. Management said they are pushing the entire business to grow at least as fast as the U.S. commercial segment over the next 18 months. While they described this as “a very high goal,” the objective serves as a target rather than a forecast for any reported period.
Costs were also expected to rise. During the August call, management anticipated a sharp increase in third-quarter expenses, matching the pattern of prior years. Executives attributed this jump to the timing of new hires, along with additional product and marketing work. That quarter has ended, but the company has not yet reported its results.
When Palantir reports its full-year results, U.S. commercial revenue for 2026 is the number to watch against management’s guidance of more than $3.424 billion.
Your Advisor Retired? Get A Second Opinion Before You Settle
Palantir Technologies holders are waiting for something new to move the stock. When the advisor who built your plan moves on, it is a natural moment to ask whether the plan still fits the life you have now. Our partner advisory firm offers a free review of your holdings, fees and income plan.
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds.