What Are Uber Stock Bulls Not Worried About?

Uber Technologies (UBER) stock appears to trade at just 14.9 times earnings, against 22.9 for the S&P 500. But that trailing discount is largely an optical illusion: the quarter ended September 30, 2025, accounted for $6.63 billion of the $9.58 billion total profit, driven primarily by a one-time tax benefit that pushes Uber’s normalized multiple far higher. While bulls see a bargain, that optimism relies on cars with drivers—yet management is planning for vehicles without them. So what could go wrong for the part of Uber that moves people?

Uber’s Robotaxi Plan Depends On Partners And Regulators

Uber plans for driverless cars to carry riders on its own app. Management wants Uber to become the world’s leading platform for selling rides in autonomous vehicles, allowing the makers of those cars to reach riders through Uber. That strategy holds so far: management spoke on the August call of 120,000 vehicle commitments it is looking to deliver over the next few years.

Car makers are the weak spot in that plan. Questions during the call raised press reports about Uber’s relationship with Waymo and whether Lucid can deliver on its vehicle commitments. Management answered that Uber does not want to depend on a single partner, noting that it sees many newer players coming into the field.

Regulators are the other party Uber does not control. Management named concerns about job loss, safety and congestion, and said that sometimes you have to slow down to get sustainable rules for driverless cars.

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How Much Of Uber’s Revenue Comes From Rides?

Rides bring in more than half of Uber’s revenue. Mobility, the ride business, brought in $29.7 billion in fiscal 2025, representing 57% of company revenue. The segment is still growing, but more slowly: Mobility revenue rose 18.3% in fiscal 2025, after 26.5% in fiscal 2024. So the business that driverless cars would change is the one Uber relies on most.

The stock price already leaves some room for disappointment. Uber stock closed on October 19, 2026, at 29.8% below its highest close of the past year, set on November 3, 2025. It trades at 2.6 times sales, against 3.1 for the S&P 500. Over its last three twelve-month periods, though, Uber’s revenue grew 16.4% a year on average, against 5.9% for the index, so the price appears to assume that growth will not last.

Robotaxis Are Still A Small Part Of Uber

This is a real risk, but still a small one. Management said in August that driverless cars make hundreds of thousands of trips a week on Uber, accounting for less than 0.5% of its roughly 300 million weekly trips. That small share says nothing about how fast it grows, and management described its $10 billion of spending on driverless cars as an investment over several years.

If the car makers go their own way, the cost falls on the business that brings in most of Uber’s revenue. That is what a holder stands to lose.

So far, Uber has more than one robotaxi maker on board, and its ride business is still growing, though more slowly than a year earlier. Mobility revenue growth in the third-quarter report, expected on or around November 4, 2026, is the number to watch.

Is Too Much Of Your Wealth Riding On One Stock?

Uber Technologies holders now have a new risk to watch. When one position grows into a large part of your wealth, a sharp fall can hurt your whole plan, and selling to spread the money out can bring a large tax bill. Our partner advisory firm offers a free strategy review of ways to protect a concentrated position and unwind it with less tax.

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