What Could Derail Boeing Stock?

Shares of Boeing (BA) have lost 15.4% over the past twelve months, trailing the 17.0% returned by the S&P 500. A lack of customer demand is not the issue, as the aerospace company has a backlog of more than 6,200 airplanes that it has yet to deliver. Instead, the real challenge sits inside Boeing’s own factories, a reality management has already acknowledged. So what is holding Boeing back?

Boeing’s 737 Line Is Running Behind

The aerospace manufacturer is currently constrained by its production of the 737 MAX. According to a Reuters report, management noted on September 16 that stabilizing the assembly line at a rate of 47 jets a month is taking “longer than expected.” Wing production at one factory is currently causing a hold-up, and Boeing says it has plans to address it. Shares slid following the remark.

Reaching 47 jets a month represents just one phase of a broader manufacturing plan. During the July 28 call for the second quarter of 2026, management set the next planned rate at 52 a month. Executives also warned that subsequent scaling, moving from 52 to 57 and beyond, would prove more difficult. Consequently, Boeing has fallen behind schedule before even attempting the production steps that management itself expected to be harder.

External suppliers introduce parallel risks. Management stated on that same call that supplier readiness, including engines, remains a key factor in its 2027 production and delivery plans.

Boeing’s Largest Business Still Loses Money

The company’s core segment, Commercial Airplanes brought in $41.5 billion in fiscal 2025. That amounted to 46% of Boeing’s revenue, and the figure was 81.5% more than in fiscal 2024.

Despite this scale, Commercial Airplanes is not yet profitable for Boeing. During the second quarter of 2026, the unit’s revenue rose 8% from a year earlier to reach $11.8 billion, yet the division still lost money. It reported an operating margin of negative 2.7%, though that margin improved from a year earlier. Management noted the 737 and 787 programs were operating only slightly above breakeven, largely because of pricing. Boeing expects better-priced jets from its backlog to lift those margins, but it has to build and deliver them first.

Boeing stock now trades 25.5% below its 52-week high.

How Serious Is The 737 Delay For Boeing?

Boeing also carries debt equal to 30.8% of its market value, measured against 21.0% for the S&P 500. On the July 28 call, management kept its 2026 free cash flow outlook steady at $1 billion to $3 billion. Executives specified that the cash expected late in the year would come partly from rising delivery rates on its commercial programs. However, management gave that outlook before its September 16 comment on the 737, meaning the projection may not reflect the delay.

Boeing’s third-quarter report will serve as the next occasion for management to update that outlook. An outlook cut below $1 billion would be a sign that slower deliveries have reached Boeing’s cash.

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