What Should Qualcomm Stock Investors Be Watching Now?

Qualcomm (QCOM) stock has returned 45% over the past six months, against 18.2% for the S&P 500. If you own it after a run like that, your worry is what could interrupt it. Sales fell 4.0% from a year earlier in the latest quarter. On top of that, management has warned that one large customer is buying less. Which customer is it, and how quickly is it pulling back?

Qualcomm Is Losing Apple Faster Than Planned

The customer is Apple, and the warning came from Qualcomm’s own management on its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings call on July 29, 2026. Qualcomm had expected a 20% share of the iPhone launch that was then upcoming. Management said on July 29 that it expected a share materially lower than that, and that supply constraints at Qualcomm were part of the reason.

Management also said the decline in its Apple revenue would speed up, starting in fiscal Q4 2026. That quarter has ended, and its results are still pending. Qualcomm’s year will look different as well: its December quarter, once lifted by strong Apple sales, will no longer be its high quarter.

Qualcomm Gets Billions A Year From Apple

Apple probably accounts for about $7.5 billion of Qualcomm’s revenue in fiscal 2026. That estimate came up in a question on the July 29 call, and management called it a fair range. Qualcomm’s total revenue over the last twelve months was $44.1 billion, so Apple is a large customer to lose.

Apple’s orders sit inside Qualcomm’s handset chip business, which brought in $5.1 billion of the company’s $9.9 billion revenue in fiscal Q3 2026. Management had not expected much growth there. Its forecast for fiscal Q4 2026 was about $5.2 billion, with higher Android sales offset by lower Apple revenue.

Although the stock surged earlier this year, it has dropped 27.3% from its May 29 52-week high of $259.92. It trades at 20.6 times earnings, against 21.5 for the S&P 500. At that multiple the price does not appear to assume fast growth.

Can Qualcomm’s Other Businesses Replace Apple?

Management says they can, and within a year. It expects growth in sales outside handsets during fiscal 2027 to replace all of the Apple product revenue from fiscal 2026.

But Qualcomm would need to grow much faster to get there. Management forecast that growth outside handsets would speed up from 24% in fiscal 2026 to more than 60% in fiscal 2027. Its forecast includes $5 billion of data center revenue, and Qualcomm is new to that market. Management has acknowledged that investors want more proof it can deliver there. On September 8, 2026, Qualcomm announced a custom chip collaboration with Amazon.

So the Apple loss is real and it is known: management has announced it and dated it, while the revenue meant to replace it is still a forecast. An unproven forecast matters more for a stock with Qualcomm’s record. Qualcomm stock has fallen harder than the market in rough stretches: it lost 41% in the 2022 inflation shock, against 24% for the S&P 500.

Handset revenue of about $5.2 billion or more in fiscal Q4 2026 would show Android sales covering Apple’s smaller orders for now. For the Apple loss to stay manageable, sales outside handsets have to grow as fast as management forecasts. The first evidence on data centers is due in the December quarter, when Qualcomm’s custom chip business is scheduled to start producing revenue.

Does This Mean You Should Act On QCOM?

Our purpose is to inform you with unique data so you make the right investment decisions. That said, betting on a single stock is always risky, no matter which direction you choose.

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