Workday Or Autodesk: Is The Louder AI Story The Better Stock?

If you own Workday (WDAY) or Autodesk (ADSK), you hold the same bet: the company that already keeps a customer’s data gets paid as that customer adopts AI. Workday keeps HR and finance records, and Autodesk keeps design, manufacturing, and construction data.

Workday puts a dollar figure on its AI sales, yet its early fiscal 2028 target calls for slower growth. Autodesk reports no separate AI revenue and grew faster over the past year.

Did Workday And Autodesk Raise Their Outlooks For The Same Reason?

Both raised guidance at their fiscal Q2 2027 reports. Workday lifted its fiscal 2027 subscription revenue outlook by just 0.1%. Its early fiscal 2028 target is about 11% subscription growth, down from the 13% it guides for fiscal 2027.

Autodesk raised its fiscal 2027 total revenue outlook by 1.6%. The raise includes MaintainX, a high-growth business it recently bought, plus a stronger second quarter. Its AI task automation comes built into some subscriptions, and management says it lifts growth at Fusion, its design and manufacturing software. So the raises share a cause but not a source: both followed second-quarter beats, but Autodesk’s also folds in the MaintainX acquisition, while Workday’s reflects execution alone.

Workday’s AI is real, but its newest products are slow to pay. Its AI products carry nearly $600 million of annual recurring revenue. Many of its new AI products are billed through flex credits, and the CEO expects that revenue months or a year down the road. Just over 200 customers had signed up for flex credits, against more than 5,500 using Workday’s built-in agents.

What Are You Paying For In Workday While You Wait?

You pay more for Workday. Its price-to-EBIT multiple is 33.0, against 21.1 for Autodesk. That premium comes while flex-credit revenue has not yet shown up. The CFO says the fiscal 2028 target leaves out part of its AI momentum, and sees upside there.

Workday also gives strategic customers Sana Enterprise, its AI workbench, free for a year. A Workday holder is betting that free use turns into subscription revenue growth.

How Does Autodesk Make Its Money?

Autodesk sells subscriptions to software such as Fusion and Autodesk Forma. Over the last twelve months, its revenue grew 17.9%, against 13.3% for Workday. Its GAAP operating margin over the last twelve months was 27.9%, more than twice Workday’s 12.0%.

MaintainX was not profitable when Autodesk bought it, and the CFO says it dilutes adjusted operating margin in fiscal 2027, though Autodesk kept that margin outlook unchanged.

Which Of The Two Holds Up Better On The Numbers?

Autodesk, clearly. It is cheaper, grew faster over the past year, and is far more profitable. Workday’s edge on the business is its three-year growth record, and that is close to a tie: revenue growth averaged 14.8% a year over three years, against 14.4% for Autodesk.

That near-tie matters because Autodesk’s recent pace includes a boost from its new transaction model, worth about 1.5 percentage points of fiscal 2027 revenue growth, that the CFO says will not recur in fiscal 2028. The case for Workday improves if flex credits lift subscription growth above its fiscal 2028 target. To test other names this way, our scorecard rates stocks on growth, profitability, stability, resilience and valuation.

Whichever Stock Wins The Comparison, Concentration Still Loses

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