How Will Coca-Cola Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings?
Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) is set to report its earnings on Tuesday, April 28, 2026. The company has $330 Bil in current market capitalization. Revenue over the last twelve months was $48 Bil, and it was operationally profitable with $15 Bil in operating profits and net income of $13 Bil. While a lot will depend on how results stack up against consensus and expectations, understanding historical patterns might just turn the odds in your favor if you are an event-driven trader.
There are two ways to do that: understand the historical odds and position yourself prior to the earnings release, or look at the correlation between immediate and medium-term returns post earnings and position yourself accordingly after the earnings are released.
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Coca-Cola’s Historical Odds Of Positive Post-Earnings Return
Some observations on one-day (1D) post-earnings returns:
- There are 18 earnings data points recorded over the last five years, with 12 positive and 6 negative one-day (1D) returns observed. In summary, positive 1D returns were seen about 67% of the time.
- However, this percentage decreases to 55% if we consider data for the last 3 years instead of 5.
- Median of the 12 positive returns = 1.5%, and median of the 6 negative returns = -1.0%
Additional data for observed 5-Day (5D) and 21-Day (21D) returns post earnings are summarized along with the statistics in the table below.
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D | 5D | 21D |
| 2/10/2026 | -1.5% | 2.0% | 0.2% |
| 10/21/2025 | 4.1% | 2.4% | 4.1% |
| 7/22/2025 | -0.6% | -2.8% | 0.1% |
| 4/29/2025 | 0.8% | -0.1% | -0.9% |
| 2/11/2025 | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% |
| 10/23/2024 | -2.1% | -5.6% | -9.3% |
| 7/23/2024 | 0.3% | 3.2% | 7.1% |
| 4/30/2024 | -0.4% | 0.5% | -0.5% |
| 2/13/2024 | -0.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% |
| 10/24/2023 | 2.9% | 3.8% | 7.3% |
| 7/26/2023 | 1.3% | -0.8% | -3.2% |
| 2/14/2023 | -1.7% | -1.3% | -0.3% |
| 10/25/2022 | 2.4% | 4.0% | 8.3% |
| 7/26/2022 | 1.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% |
| 4/25/2022 | 1.1% | -1.0% | -3.7% |
| 2/10/2022 | 0.6% | -0.2% | -5.1% |
| 10/27/2021 | 1.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| 7/21/2021 | 1.3% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 11 | 11 |
| # Negative | 6 | 7 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% |
| Median Negative | -1.0% | -1.0% | -3.2% |
| Max Positive | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% |
| Max Negative | -2.1% | -5.6% | -9.3% |
Correlation Between 1D, 5D and 21D Historical Returns
A relatively less risky strategy (though not useful if the correlation is low) is to understand the correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post earnings, find a pair that has the highest correlation, and execute the appropriate trade. For example, if 1D and 5D show the highest correlation, a trader can position themselves “long” for the next 5 days if the 1D post-earnings return is positive. Here is some correlation data based on a 5-year and a 3-year (more recent) history. Note that the correlation 1D_5D refers to the correlation between 1D post-earnings returns and subsequent 5D returns.
| History | 1D_5D | 1D_21D | 5D_21D |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Y History | 7.3% | 21.9% | 25.0% |
| 3Y History | 8.8% | 27.0% | 42.3% |
Is There Any Correlation With Peer Earnings?
Sometimes, peer performance can have an influence on post-earnings stock reaction. In fact, the pricing-in might begin before the earnings are announced. Here is some historical data on the past post-earnings performance of Coca-Cola stock compared with the stock performance of peers that reported earnings just before Coca-Cola. For fair comparison, peer stock returns also represent post-earnings one-day (1D) returns.
| 1D Return | Peer Post-Earnings 1D Return | |
|---|---|---|
| KO Earnings Dates | KO | PEP |
| 2/10/2026 | -1.5% | 2.5% |
| 10/21/2025 | 4.1% | 5.9% |
| 7/22/2025 | -0.6% | 0.4% |
| 4/29/2025 | 0.8% | -0.7% |
| 2/11/2025 | 4.7% | 1.5% |
| 10/23/2024 | -2.1% | 1.5% |
| 7/23/2024 | 0.3% | 1.4% |
| 4/30/2024 | -0.4% | 2.7% |
| 2/13/2024 | -0.6% | 0.7% |
| 10/24/2023 | 2.9% | -1.3% |
| 7/26/2023 | 1.3% | 2.2% |
| 2/14/2023 | -1.7% | 1.7% |
| 10/25/2022 | 2.4% | 5.2% |
| 7/26/2022 | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| 10/27/2021 | 1.9% | 6.3% |
| 7/21/2021 | 1.3% | 1.5% |
| CORRELATION | -5.3% |
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