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Investment Overview for Trina Solar (NYSE:TSL)
Below are key drivers of Trina Solar's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for Trina Solar:
Rest of the World Photovoltaic modules
- Trina Solar's Gross Margins: Trina Solar is one of the cheapest manufacturers of polysilicon modules. Trina Solar's gross margins increased from about 15% in 2008 to over 30% in 2010 due to cost declines. However, the severe supply glut in 2011 resulted in eroding margins for manufacturers and Trina's margins for the year were 16%. We expect that margins will decline sharply in the near-term and then gradually recover over the long-term as manufacturing costs go down and module demand increases. However if the company isn't able to decrease production costs on an absolute basis and it is unable to get gross margins to exceed 15% by the end of the Trefis forecast period it would result in a downside of about 25% to the Trefis price estimate.
- Price per Watt of PV Modules Sold: The average price per watt decreased from $3.92 in 2007 to $1.76 in 2010 and $1.35 in 2011, and we expect it to fall to around $0.65 by the end of the Trefis forecast period. However, if prices fall at a slower rate than estimated and stay above $0.80 per watt by the end of the period, the Trefis price estimate would see an upside of about 20%.
For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Trina Solar at the top of the page.
Trina Solar manufactures and sells multi crystalline solar modules, which use polysilicon to convert solar energy to electricity. The firm also designs, constructs and sells photovoltaic (PV) solar power systems that combine modules into a power system.
In order to secure inputs to its module manufacturing business, the company has expanded upstream over the past few years. It now manufactures polysilicon ingots in-house. These ingots are long solid blocks of polysilicon material that are cut into thin wafers from which cells are made These cells are finally converted into PV modules by covering the cells with a coating material for protection.
The ingot manufacturing segment of the company has the capability to produce mono crystalline ingots with silicon crystal growing furnaces as well as multi-crystalline ingots which differ slightly in their structure. The wafers, cells and modules divisions convert the ingots into modules . The module manufacturing division uses these cells in the manufacture of solar modules which it sells to solar project developers and system integrators.
The Rest of the World PV Modules division is the primary source of value for Trina Solar
Growth in markets outside Germany
In 2010 and 2011 Germany contributed around 255 MW and 559 MW worth of PV module sales compared to 190 MW and 234 MW by the Rest of The World. As countries globally adopt solar energy as an alternative means of generating electricity and Trina Solar diversifies away from the German market, PV module sales in other countries such as China, India and other countries in Europe are expected to rise.
Legislature to aid renewable energy projects
As solar power has still not reached grid parity, investors depend on government subsidies to earn a competitive RoI for their projects. Governments all across the world have taken measures to encourage the use of solar technology as a way to help them reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. The U.S. government's Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 provided tax credits to investments made in alternative energy projects. Similarly the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 provides tax incentives worth 30% of the total cost of installation. Government subsidies and tax credits have enabled renewable energy companies like First Solar to thrive. Recent initiatives taken by the government require that in at least 30 states, public utilities will be required to generate a portion of their output from alternative energy in the coming years. However with budget constraints, Governments are being forced to cut down on subsidies and it is expected that some incentives may not be renewed.
Australia’s PV market has been largely driven by demand in the residential sector with approximately 80% of the installed capacity being used for residential use. As a significant portion of the country’s electricity is generated through cheap coal, the solar market growth has been quite steady in the past. Australia had close to 1.3 GW of installed solar capacity in August 2011 and is expected to add more capacity as the government looks to generate as much as 20% of its power requirements from renewable sources.
Countries such as China and India are also embarking on large programs to boost solar power generation in the future. Pilot projects in the Middle East are also being undertaken to test the feasibility of solar power generation in these high solar irradiation geographies.
Impact of the economic crisis
The global economic crisis has had a profound impact on the solar industry. The rise in energy prices prior to the economic downturn led many solar manufacturers to increase capacity. This helped certain manufacturers as they benefited from economies of scale which in turn helped reduce prices. However, due to the credit contraction that occurred during the financial crisis, the installation of solar power systems declined significantly as it is crucially dependent on capital expenditures. The economic crisis impacted demand for everything from polysilicon to rooftop panels. As a result many smaller players with weak balance sheets have been struggling, which has led to consolidation in the industry.
Innovation in solar technology
The PV industry has seen strong growth over the past few years and the total number of solar cells produced globally has increased by over seven times in the past five years. Installation of PV systems has also increased sharply during this period. Solar companies are continuously working to improve current technology, reduce costs and make systems more efficient. PV module efficiency and costs are drivers for most of the PV power plants; therefore technological advancement and innovation are key to solar players' success.
Growth in Emerging Markets
Europe and developed nations are not the only ones taking the lead in the solar industry. China is expected to become the largest market for solar panels by the end of 2014. The country is expected to add between 3-5 GW of solar installations in 2012. Japan is also looking to add solar capacity rapidly over the
In China, with the help of Solar Rooftops and the Golden Sun programs in 2009, the PV market in China experienced strong growth achieving 228 MW in 2009 and growing to more than 1 GW in 2011.
How Does Trefis Modelling Work?
How do we get the historical numbers for this chart?
Trefis has a team of in-house Analysts who gather historical data from company filings and other verifiable sources. When historicals are available, we explain how we got them at the bottom of the Trefis analysis section below.
Who came up with the Trefis forecast for future years?
The Trefis team of in-house Analysts considers a variety of factors when projecting any forecast. The rationale for our projections is explained in the Trefis analysis section below.
How does my dragging the trendline on the chart impact the stock price?
- We use forecasts for business drivers to calculate forecasted Revenues and Profits for each division of the company.
- We then use forecasted Profits in a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to obtain the Price Estimate for the company.
See more on: DCF Methodology
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