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Investment Overview for Citigroup (NYSE:C)
Below are key drivers of Citigroup's value that present opportunities for upside or downside to the current Trefis price estimate for the company's stock:
Sales & Trading
- Debt Capital Deployed: Citigroup's debt trading desk saw its asset base swell from $288 billion at the end of 2006 to $414 billion in 2007. Following the global economic crisis, this figure fell steadily to below $180 billion by 2015. If Citigroup decides to shrink its fixed-income business in the wake of criticism related to banks' trading operations, and the actual annual decline in size of deployed debt capital is 3% for the years to come instead of the 3% growth we currently estimate, the debt portfolio would reach around $140 billion by the end of our forecast period. Should this occur there would be a downside of nearly 7% to the Trefis price estimate
- Investment Banking EBT Margin: Citigroup's investment banking business has reported margins of around 40% over 2013-2015. We expect the margin figure to remain largely around this level going forward. However, if these margins fall to 35% over our forecast period, then there would be an downside of about 5% to the current price estimate.
For additional details, select a driver above or select a division from the interactive Trefis split for Citigroup at the top of the company page.
Citigroup is a leading global financial services holding company which does business in over 160 countries. The company offers consumer banking, credit cards, corporate and investment banking, securities brokerage and wealth management services to corporate, institutional, government and individual customers worldwide.
Below are some key sources of value for Citigroup:
Sales & Trading
Citigroup generated roughly $14.5 billion in revenues from its FICC and equity trading desks in 2014 and 2015. In comparison, the consumer banking business generated average revenues of $15.5 billion for the same period. However, Citigroup has achieved a higher operating margin of around 40% on its investment banking business as a whole compared to about 30% on its consumer banking business. As a result of this, the bank's Sales & Trading division is the primary source of value according to our estimates.
Consumer Banking Yields Greater than Transaction Services & Trade Finance
Citigroup has decided to focus on its core consumer banking business after suffering severe losses during the sub-prime crisis. This move also came about due to pressure from the U.S. government, which had to bail out the company. The consumer banking business earned a net interest margin of 6.5% in 2013-15 on a loan base of around $150 billion. In comparison, the company had treasury client assets worth $490 billion in its Global Transaction Services business in 2015, on which it earned a just 1.6% in fees. As the company focuses more on the consumer banking business we expect solid asset growth, even as the yield figure remains significantly higher.
In the new structure, Citicorp is Citigroup's global bank for businesses and consumers. Citicorp consists of Global Transaction Services, Corporate and Investment Banking, Citi Private Bank and the Retail Bank. The Retail Bank includes regional consumer and commercial banking and card franchises around the world. Approximately two-thirds of Citicorp’s balance sheet is deposit-funded. It has relatively low-risk, high-return assets and it operates in the fastest-growing areas of the world.
Citi Holdings includes businesses that have strong market positions but are not central to the group's core operating strategy. Citi Holdings is made up of brokerage and asset management; consumer finance, mortgage loans, and private label credit cards that were severely affected by sub-prime crisis; and a special asset pool.
TARP (Troubled asset relief program) Funding
Citigroup participated in the government’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) which was designed to provide more capital to banks in light of severe losses suffered during global financial crisis of 2008-09. This was because Citi had significant exposure to the subprime mortgage industry and suffered considerable losses in 2007 and 2008 from large write-downs and write-offs on many of its mortgage-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations.
As a result, Citi received an additional investment from the U.S. government (preferred stock purchases of $45 billion) and also purchased insurance against $301 billion of assets. In 2009-2010, a portion of the U.S. investment in the form of preferred stock was converted to common equity (amounting to $25 billion) and a portion of it (amounting to $20 billion) was repaid. Citi also terminated the loss-sharing agreement.
But the bailout and the subsequent restructuring still has the following implications for Citi:
- Citigroup is going to focus on its core business of providing traditional retail and commercial banking products to its clients. It plans to cut down on proprietary trading and derivatives trading.
- Citigroup's pledge to focus on its core business will make strong profitability difficult given current market conditions. The recession has affected the bank's entire business and it remains vulnerable to major macroeconomic factors such as consumer spending, the U.S. housing market, and consumer confidence in the finance industry.
- Citigroup will continue to shrink businesses and sell assets under Citi Holdings. Considering the fact that many of these businesses have a strong position in the market they operate in, this may not necessarily be beneficial to the bank in the long run
Volcker Rule to affect proprietary trading desk
The Volcker Rule restricts banks from making certain kinds of speculative investments if they are not on behalf of their customers. The rule proposed by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker is being argued on the grounds that such speculative activity played a key role in the financial crisis of 2007–2010.
With the Volcker Rule in force, Citigroup has already cut down on a number of its proprietary trading desks. The bank should, however, be able to maintain some of its prop trading operations as long as they are outside of the U.S.
How Does Trefis Modelling Work?
How do we get the historical numbers for this chart?
Trefis has a team of in-house Analysts who gather historical data from company filings and other verifiable sources. When historicals are available, we explain how we got them at the bottom of the Trefis analysis section below.
Who came up with the Trefis forecast for future years?
The Trefis team of in-house Analysts considers a variety of factors when projecting any forecast. The rationale for our projections is explained in the Trefis analysis section below.
How does my dragging the trendline on the chart impact the stock price?
- We use forecasts for business drivers to calculate forecasted Revenues and Profits for each division of the company.
- We then use forecasted Profits in a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model to obtain the Price Estimate for the company.
See more on: DCF Methodology
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