U.S. Bancorp Stock Outperformed S&P500 Over One Month, Is It A Buy?

+33.54%
Upside
49.21
Market
65.72
Trefis
USB: U.S. Bank logo
USB
U.S. Bank

 

U.S. Bancorp stock (NYSE: USB) has gained 0.3% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (down 4.1%). Further, the same trend was evident over the one-month horizon, with the stock increasing by 1.4%. In comparison, the broader markets lost 9.3% over the same period. 

The bank reported fourth-quarter results last week, with revenues and earnings missing the consensus estimates. It posted total revenues of $5.66 billion – marginally less than the year-ago period. The wholesale banking (corporate & commercial banking) revenues dropped by 3% y-o-y followed by a 9% drop in consumer banking. However, the negative effect was offset by a 5% y-o-y jump in both the payment services and wealth management units. Overall, U.S. Bancorp’s revenues were around $22.7 billion for full-year 2021 – down 2% y-o-y, mainly due to a 3% y-o-y decrease in the net interest income (NII) and lower mortgage banking revenue. The stock has performed better than the market over the last month, as the investor sentiment is positive toward the impact of expected interest rate hikes on the bank’s top-line.

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Now, is USB stock set to rise further, or could we expect some negative movement? We believe that there is a 55% chance of a rise in U.S. Bancorp stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on U.S. Bancorp Stock Chance of Rise.

And if you are considering U.S. Bancorp’s stock as an investment option over a larger time frame, you can explore our forecast for U.S. Bancorp’s valuation. 

Twenty-One Day: USB 1.4%, vs. S&P500 -9.3%; Outperformed market

(51% likelihood event; 55% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • U.S. Bancorp stock gained 1.4% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decline of 9.3%
  • A change of 1.4% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 51% likelihood event, which has occurred 1283 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1283 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 704 occasions
  • This points to a 55% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: USB -7.3%, vs. S&P500 -7.8%; Outperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • U.S. Bancorp stock decreased 7.3% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) loss of 7.8%
  • A change of -7.3% or more over ten trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 91 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 91 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 54 occasions
  • This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: USB 0.3%, vs. S&P500 -4.1%; Outperformed market

(54% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next five days)

  • U.S. Bancorp stock increased 0.3% over a five-day trading period ending 01/26/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 4.1%
  • A change of 0.3% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 54% likelihood event, which has occurred 1369 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1369 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 690 occasions
  • This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 

 Returns Jan 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 USB Return 2% 2% 12%
 S&P 500 Return -9% -9% 94%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -14% -14% 243%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/27/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

 

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