What’s Next For Nokia Stock After 14% Rise Last Month?

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NOK: Nokia logo
NOK
Nokia

Nokia stock (NYSE: NOK) is up a strong 14% in just one month (21 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was up just a little under 4%. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned 6.9% and 5.6%, beating the market on both occasions. Nokia reported steady Q3 ’21 earnings back in late October, with revenue rising from $5.99 billion in Q3 ’20 to $6.1 billion in Q3 ’21. Gross margins rose from 37.1% to 40.7% and operating margins rose from 6.6% to 9.3% over this period. This helped EPS more than double from $0.03 in Q3 ’20 to $0.07 in Q3 ’21. The stock has since ridden the rally in the broader markets, on expectations of continued strong earnings performance.

Now, is Nokia stock set to continue its rally or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is a decent 56% chance of a rise in Nokia stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on NOK Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about how Nokia makes money, see Nokia (NOK) Revenues: How Does NOK Make Money?

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Twenty-One Day: NOK 14%, vs. S&P500 3.9%; Outperformed market

(11% likelihood event; 56% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • NOK stock rose 14% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.9%
  • A change of 14% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 11% likelihood event, which has occurred 268 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 268 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 149 occasions
  • This points to a 56% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: NOK 5.6%, vs. S&P500 2.2%; Outperformed market

(19% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • NOK stock rose 5.6% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 2.2%
  • A change of 5.6% or more over ten trading days is a 19% likelihood event, which has occurred 479 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 479 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 249 occasions
  • This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: NOK 6.9%, vs. S&P500 4.8%; Outperformed market

(9% likelihood event; 41% probability of rise over next five days)

  • NOK stock rose 6.9% over a five-day trading period ending 12/27/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.8%
  • A change of 6.9% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 216 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 216 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 89 occasions
  • This points to a 41% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Dec 2021
MTD [1]
2021
YTD [1]
2017-21
Total [2]
 NOK Return 14% 62% 31%
 S&P 500 Return 4% 27% 114%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 2% 47% 297%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/28/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

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