Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 6.2%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 54 Bil, FCF LTM is 29 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 10%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.1%, FCF Yield is 6.2%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 54 Bil, FCF LTM is 29 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include US Energy Independence, Energy Transition & Decarbonization, Hydrogen Economy, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.7%, Dist 3Y High is -2.8%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -28%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -52%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -3.3%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -2.1%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

XOM Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Here are five key points highlighting the factors influencing Exxon Mobil's (XOM) stock movement, which saw a gain of 2.52% over the last 30 days as of early December 2025: 1. Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results and Increased Shareholder Returns. Exxon Mobil reported robust third-quarter 2025 earnings of $7.5 billion, surpassing analyst expectations, and generated strong cash flow from operations totaling $14.8 billion. The company demonstrated a commitment to shareholder value by returning $9.4 billion through dividends and share repurchases, and announced a 4% increase in its fourth-quarter dividend to $1.03 per share.

2. Significant Production Growth and Strategic Project Investments. The company achieved record production levels, particularly in Guyana, surpassing 700,000 barrels per day, and in the Permian Basin, delivering nearly 1.7 million barrels per day. Key project advancements, such as the approval of the $6.8 billion Hammerhead project in Guyana and the early startup of the Yellowtail project, are expected to further boost long-term production capacity.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
XOM Return-36%58%87%-6%11%13%122%
Peers Return-36%60%83%4%-7%16%111%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
XOM Win Rate25%75%67%42%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate40%63%65%53%45%68% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
XOM Max Drawdown-54%0%0%-9%-3%-6% 
Peers Max Drawdown-67%-1%0%-15%-12%-16% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CVX, COP, OXY, MPC, VLO. See XOM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventXOMS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-20.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven25.8%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven99 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-55.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven125.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven659 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-24.4%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven32.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1169 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-34.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven51.7%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1738 days1480 days

Compare to CVX, COP, MPC, DEC, RRI


In The Past

Exxon Mobil's stock fell -20.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/8/2022. A -20.5% loss requires a 25.8% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Exxon Mobil (XOM)

Better Bets than Exxon Mobil (XOM)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to XOM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.1%12.1%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.5%17.5%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.9%7.9%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
30.3%30.3%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.7%0.7%-5.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
WHD_11212025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy11212025WHDCactusDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
12.1%12.1%0.0%
OVV_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025OVVOvintivDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
17.5%17.5%0.0%
COP_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025COPConocoPhillipsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
7.9%7.9%-2.3%
HAL_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025HALHalliburtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
30.3%30.3%-0.7%
OXY_10102025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10102025OXYOccidental PetroleumDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
0.7%0.7%-5.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Exxon Mobil

Peers to compare with:

Financials

XOMCVXCOPOXYMPCVLOMedian
NameExxon Mo.Chevron ConocoPh.Occident.Marathon.Valero E. 
Mkt Price116.54150.0093.6942.43190.53174.14133.27
Mkt Cap504.7290.8116.741.857.753.887.2
Rev LTM329,385186,97959,78827,150133,262123,071128,166
Op Inc LTM37,57215,06712,5495,4574,7343,0859,003
FCF LTM29,12315,4247,0884,7764,2763,9605,932
FCF 3Y Avg35,95818,1858,9105,7458,2986,9898,604
CFO LTM54,30131,84519,93512,1467,3914,83916,040
CFO 3Y Avg58,98034,25020,72012,36610,7837,92616,543

Growth & Margins

XOMCVXCOPOXYMPCVLOMedian
NameExxon Mo.Chevron ConocoPh.Occident.Marathon.Valero E. 
Rev Chg LTM-3.3%-3.6%8.2%0.1%-6.1%-8.5%-3.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-2.1%-6.2%-6.6%-6.8%-8.3%-10.3%-6.7%
Rev Chg Q-11.7%-1.5%15.3%-5.9%-0.8%-2.2%-1.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.1%-0.4%3.4%-1.5%-0.2%-0.6%-0.5%
Op Mgn LTM11.4%8.1%21.0%20.1%3.6%2.5%9.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg13.4%11.2%24.1%23.4%6.0%5.3%12.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%-0.3%-1.0%-2.0%0.4%0.8%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM16.5%17.0%33.3%44.7%5.5%3.9%16.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg17.1%17.6%35.6%43.1%7.4%5.7%17.3%
FCF/Rev LTM8.8%8.2%11.9%17.6%3.2%3.2%8.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg10.4%9.3%15.3%19.7%5.7%5.0%9.8%

Valuation

XOMCVXCOPOXYMPCVLOMedian
NameExxon Mo.Chevron ConocoPh.Occident.Marathon.Valero E. 
Mkt Cap504.7290.8116.741.857.753.887.2
P/S1.41.62.01.50.40.41.5
P/EBIT10.213.58.18.88.522.39.5
P/E15.123.613.317.220.335.218.8
P/CFO8.69.55.93.47.910.98.2
Total Yield10.3%8.3%10.8%5.8%6.9%5.5%7.6%
Dividend Yield3.7%4.1%3.3%0.0%1.9%2.7%3.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg7.8%6.2%6.9%11.6%14.3%14.6%9.7%
D/E0.10.10.20.60.60.20.2
Net D/E0.10.10.10.50.50.10.1

Returns

XOMCVXCOPOXYMPCVLOMedian
NameExxon Mo.Chevron ConocoPh.Occident.Marathon.Valero E. 
1M Rtn-0.6%-2.2%8.9%2.7%-1.2%-0.2%-0.4%
3M Rtn7.6%-1.3%1.7%-7.6%6.2%11.8%4.0%
6M Rtn13.8%9.4%9.3%0.8%20.3%37.6%11.6%
12M Rtn6.4%1.1%-6.1%-8.9%29.0%36.6%3.7%
3Y Rtn23.7%-2.0%-7.5%-30.3%86.9%63.4%10.9%
1M Excs Rtn2.3%-1.7%6.7%5.7%1.8%1.9%2.1%
3M Excs Rtn1.2%-7.3%-2.3%-12.3%-0.1%5.6%-1.2%
6M Excs Rtn-0.7%-5.1%-5.2%-13.7%5.8%23.1%-2.9%
12M Excs Rtn-10.9%-16.6%-22.2%-27.6%11.7%17.1%-13.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-52.3%-75.6%-84.1%-104.5%-1.4%-25.5%-64.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Energy Products320,122371,872250,738133,367 
Upstream85,527116,89871,89414,54923,143
Chemical Products33,89941,90138,70317,634 
Specialty Products21,53223,29120,27312,986 
Intersegment revenue-126,451-155,323-105,173  
Corporate and Financing  2573841
Chemical    27,416
Downstream    204,983
Total334,629398,639276,692178,574255,583


Net Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Upstream21,30836,47915,775-20,03014,442
Energy Products12,14214,966-346-2,572 
Specialty Products2,7142,4153,2591,201 
Chemical Products1,6373,5436,9892,257 
Corporate and Financing-1,791-1,663-2,636-3,296-3,017
Chemical    592
Downstream    2,323
Total36,01055,74023,041-22,44014,340


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Upstream206,366206,459209,272216,017246,931
Energy Products74,46073,56564,63056,758 
Corporate and Financing49,81744,67122,86320,07218,171
Chemical Products34,67533,21731,25029,182 
Specialty Products10,99911,15510,90810,721 
Chemical    36,920
Downstream    60,575
Total376,317369,067338,923332,750362,597


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity48,639,717
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202516.8%
Average Daily Volume15,022,486
Days-to-Cover Short Interest3.24
Basic Shares Quantity4,331,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025804202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025505202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024219202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241104202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024805202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024429202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023228202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231031202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023502202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021223202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211103202110-Q 9/30/2021