Walmart (WMT)
Market Price (7/24/2026): $108.74 | Market Cap: $866.5 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Walmart (WMT)
Market Price (7/24/2026): $108.74Market Cap: $866.5 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 17 Bil Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 41 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Show more. | Key risksWMT key risks include [1] intense pricing pressure from competitors that challenges its low-price value proposition and [2] margin compression resulting from substantial strategic investments in supply chain automation and technology. |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 17 Bil |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO LTM is 41 Bil, FCF LTM is 13 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 25% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Automation & Robotics, Future of Freight, Show more. |
| Key risksWMT key risks include [1] intense pricing pressure from competitors that challenges its low-price value proposition and [2] margin compression resulting from substantial strategic investments in supply chain automation and technology. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Updated on 7/1/2026
Walmart (WMT) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Elevated fuel costs negatively impacted operating income in the first fiscal quarter of 2027.
Walmart, whose fiscal year ends January 31, reported its Q1 fiscal 2027 results (for the period ending April 30, 2026) on May 21, 2026. Despite overall strong revenue growth of 7.3% to $177.8 billion, operating income was negatively affected by approximately $175 million, representing a 250 basis point drag, due to higher-than-anticipated fuel costs in its distribution and fulfillment operations.
2. Significant insider selling by the Walton Family Holdings Trust signaled negative sentiment.
The Walton Family Holdings Trust, a major shareholder, conducted substantial sales of Walmart stock during the period. For instance, on June 16, 2026, the Trust sold 4,424,704 shares for approximately $535.8 million. This followed additional sales, including over 2.7 million shares in March and more than 2 million shares in May 2026. These large insider transactions, collectively totaling over $1.5 billion in "Informative Sells" from corporate insiders in the last three months, contributed to a perceived negative investor confidence signal.
Show more
Walmart (WMT) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Elevated fuel costs negatively impacted operating income in the first fiscal quarter of 2027.
Walmart, whose fiscal year ends January 31, reported its Q1 fiscal 2027 results (for the period ending April 30, 2026) on May 21, 2026. Despite overall strong revenue growth of 7.3% to $177.8 billion, operating income was negatively affected by approximately $175 million, representing a 250 basis point drag, due to higher-than-anticipated fuel costs in its distribution and fulfillment operations.
2. Significant insider selling by the Walton Family Holdings Trust signaled negative sentiment.
The Walton Family Holdings Trust, a major shareholder, conducted substantial sales of Walmart stock during the period. For instance, on June 16, 2026, the Trust sold 4,424,704 shares for approximately $535.8 million. This followed additional sales, including over 2.7 million shares in March and more than 2 million shares in May 2026. These large insider transactions, collectively totaling over $1.5 billion in "Informative Sells" from corporate insiders in the last three months, contributed to a perceived negative investor confidence signal.
Show more
Updated on 7/1/2026
Walmart (WMT) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Elevated fuel costs negatively impacted operating income in the first fiscal quarter of 2027.
Walmart, whose fiscal year ends January 31, reported its Q1 fiscal 2027 results (for the period ending April 30, 2026) on May 21, 2026. Despite overall strong revenue growth of 7.3% to $177.8 billion, operating income was negatively affected by approximately $175 million, representing a 250 basis point drag, due to higher-than-anticipated fuel costs in its distribution and fulfillment operations.
2. Significant insider selling by the Walton Family Holdings Trust signaled negative sentiment.
The Walton Family Holdings Trust, a major shareholder, conducted substantial sales of Walmart stock during the period. For instance, on June 16, 2026, the Trust sold 4,424,704 shares for approximately $535.8 million. This followed additional sales, including over 2.7 million shares in March and more than 2 million shares in May 2026. These large insider transactions, collectively totaling over $1.5 billion in "Informative Sells" from corporate insiders in the last three months, contributed to a perceived negative investor confidence signal.
3. Decelerating consumer spending and persistent inflationary pressures weighed on the retail outlook.
In the second calendar quarter of 2026, U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated due to uneven hiring, rising inflation, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Consumer optimism declined by five percentage points to 35%, with concerns about the cost of living increasing by six percentage points to 52%. Consumers indicated intentions to reduce spending across most discretionary categories, notably among lower and middle-income households, which could impact Walmart's sales mix and overall growth despite its value proposition.
Show less
Walmart (WMT) stock has lost about 15% since 3/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Elevated fuel costs negatively impacted operating income in the first fiscal quarter of 2027.
Walmart, whose fiscal year ends January 31, reported its Q1 fiscal 2027 results (for the period ending April 30, 2026) on May 21, 2026. Despite overall strong revenue growth of 7.3% to $177.8 billion, operating income was negatively affected by approximately $175 million, representing a 250 basis point drag, due to higher-than-anticipated fuel costs in its distribution and fulfillment operations.
2. Significant insider selling by the Walton Family Holdings Trust signaled negative sentiment.
The Walton Family Holdings Trust, a major shareholder, conducted substantial sales of Walmart stock during the period. For instance, on June 16, 2026, the Trust sold 4,424,704 shares for approximately $535.8 million. This followed additional sales, including over 2.7 million shares in March and more than 2 million shares in May 2026. These large insider transactions, collectively totaling over $1.5 billion in "Informative Sells" from corporate insiders in the last three months, contributed to a perceived negative investor confidence signal.
3. Decelerating consumer spending and persistent inflationary pressures weighed on the retail outlook.
In the second calendar quarter of 2026, U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated due to uneven hiring, rising inflation, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Consumer optimism declined by five percentage points to 35%, with concerns about the cost of living increasing by six percentage points to 52%. Consumers indicated intentions to reduce spending across most discretionary categories, notably among lower and middle-income households, which could impact Walmart's sales mix and overall growth despite its value proposition.
Show less
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -12.6% change in WMT stock from 3/31/2026 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -15.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 124.04 | 108.40 | -12.6% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 713,163 | 725,305 | 1.7% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 45.2 | 38.0 | -15.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7,971 | 7,969 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -12.6% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WMT | -12.6% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.5% | -3.5% |
| Sector (XLP) | 1.5% | 68.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -2.3% change in WMT stock from 12/31/2025 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a -3.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 110.97 | 108.40 | -2.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 703,061 | 725,305 | 3.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 3.3% | 3.1% | -3.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 38.6 | 38.0 | -1.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 7,974 | 7,969 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -2.3% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WMT | -2.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.5% | -0.2% |
| Sector (XLP) | 7.7% | 69.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 11.8% change in WMT stock from 6/30/2025 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 14.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302025 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 96.97 | 108.40 | 11.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 685,086 | 725,305 | 5.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 2.7% | 3.1% | 14.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 41.3 | 38.0 | -8.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8,011 | 7,969 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 11.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2025 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WMT | 11.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.5% | -2.9% |
| Sector (XLP) | 4.9% | 61.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 113.8% change in WMT stock from 6/30/2023 to 7/23/2026 was primarily driven by a 72.6% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 6302023 | 7232026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 50.71 | 108.40 | 113.8% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 622,021 | 725,305 | 16.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 1.8% | 3.1% | 72.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 36.3 | 38.0 | 4.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 8,082 | 7,969 | 1.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 113.8% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2023 to 7/23/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WMT | 113.8% | |
| Market (SPY) | 72.4% | 27.6% |
| Sector (XLP) | 20.9% | 59.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WMT Return | 2% | -0% | 13% | 74% | 24% | -1% | 144% |
| Peers Return | 38% | -25% | 29% | 27% | -6% | 10% | 76% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 10% | 100% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WMT Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 67% | 83% | 67% | 43% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 68% | 40% | 63% | 62% | 47% | 57% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WMT Max Drawdown | -14% | -26% | -11% | -6% | -22% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -39% | -20% | -18% | -26% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMZN, COST, TGT, KR, HD. See WMT Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/23/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WMT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -17.6% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 21.4% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 151 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -11.6% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 13.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 5 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 194 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 223 days | 15 days |
| 2011 US Debt Ceiling Crisis & European Contagion | ||
| % Loss | -10.6% | -17.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.8% | 21.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 61 days | 123 days |
In The Past
Walmart's stock fell -21.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 26.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | WMT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -21.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 26.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 122 days | 79 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -21.5% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 27.5% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 194 days | 62 days |
| 2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse | ||
| % Loss | -23.4% | -6.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 30.6% | 7.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 223 days | 15 days |
In The Past
Walmart's stock fell -21.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 26.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Walmart (WMT)
Walmart Inc. (WMT) is a global retail giant operating a vast network of retail, wholesale, and other units across three primary segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club. The company serves customers through diverse physical store formats, including supercenters, supermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, and discount stores. Complementing its extensive physical footprint, Walmart maintains a significant e-commerce presence with various websites and mobile applications, reaching consumers in 24 countries with approximately 10,500 stores under 46 different banners.
Walmart offers an extensive array of products and services designed to meet a wide range of consumer needs. Its core offerings include a comprehensive selection of groceries and consumables, such as fresh produce, packaged foods, beverages, health and beauty aids, and household essentials. Beyond daily necessities, the company provides health and wellness services through its pharmacies, optical centers, and over-the-counter drug offerings. Walmart also sells a broad range of general merchandise, encompassing home goods, apparel, electronics, toys, and automotive products.
In addition to its product offerings, Walmart provides various services like gasoline stations, tobacco, and financial services, including money transfers, prepaid cards, and bill payment solutions. The company primarily targets a broad global customer base, from individual consumers seeking everyday value and convenience in their shopping to small businesses and members benefiting from bulk purchasing options at Sam's Club. Its multi-format strategy and global reach position it as a comprehensive retailer catering to diverse market segments worldwide.
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Here are 1-3 brief analogies to describe Walmart (WMT):
Amazon for everyday essentials and general merchandise, but with a massive global footprint of physical stores.
A global combination of Target and Costco.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Grocery and Consumables: Sells a broad range of food, beverages, household items, health and beauty aids, and pet supplies.
- Health and Wellness Products: Offers pharmacy services, over-the-counter drugs, medical products, and related health items.
- General Merchandise: Provides home goods, apparel, electronics, outdoor living, and automotive products.
- Optical and Hearing Services: Delivers eye exams, optical products, and hearing aid services.
- Fuel Sales: Operates gasoline stations at many of its retail locations.
- Financial Services: Offers money orders, prepaid cards, money transfers, check cashing, and bill payment solutions.
- Membership Warehouse Operations: Provides exclusive access and bulk purchasing opportunities through Sam's Club.
- E-commerce Retailing: Facilitates online shopping via its various websites and mobile applications.
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Walmart Inc. (WMT) primarily sells its products and services directly to individual consumers. Its major customers can be categorized as follows:
- Budget-Conscious Consumers: Individuals and families who prioritize value and low prices for their everyday needs, including groceries, household essentials, apparel, and electronics. Walmart's "Everyday Low Prices" strategy is designed to appeal to this broad segment.
- Everyday Household Shoppers: Customers who rely on Walmart for their regular and frequent purchases across a wide array of categories, such as groceries, health and beauty aids, pet supplies, and home goods. This group values the extensive selection and availability of products for their households.
- Convenience-Oriented Shoppers: Consumers who appreciate the convenience of Walmart's vast network of physical stores (supercenters, supermarkets, discount stores, and Sam's Club warehouse clubs), as well as its robust e-commerce platforms (walmart.com, samsclub.com) and mobile applications. These customers seek a one-stop-shop experience, easy access, and flexible shopping options like in-store pickup and home delivery.
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- Procter & Gamble (PG)
- PepsiCo (PEP)
- The Coca-Cola Company (KO)
- Nestlé S.A. (NSRGY)
- Unilever PLC (UL)
- Kimberly-Clark Corporation (KMB)
- The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC)
- Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN)
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John Furner, President and CEO, Walmart Inc.
John Furner became the President and CEO of Walmart Inc. on February 1, 2026. He has been with Walmart for 32 years, previously serving as the President and CEO of Walmart U.S.
John David Rainey, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
John David Rainey is the Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer for Walmart, responsible for the company's financial operations, corporate strategy, global procurement, and investor relations. He joined Walmart in May 2022. Before Walmart, he was the Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Global Customer Operations at PayPal, and prior to that, he served as Executive Vice President and CFO at United Airlines, having spent a combined 18 years with United and Continental Airlines. He began his professional career at Ernst & Young LLP. Rainey serves on the board of directors and audit committee of Microsoft Corporation, and is a member of the board of directors at PhonePe. He also served on the board of directors for NASDAQ.
Seth Dallaire, Executive Vice President and Chief Growth Officer, Walmart Inc.
Seth Dallaire was named Executive Vice President and Chief Growth Officer for Walmart Inc., effective February 1, 2026. In this role, he oversees global enterprise platforms such as Walmart Connect, Walmart+, Walmart Data Ventures, Vizio, and a global Marketplace platform. Previously, he was the EVP and Chief Growth Officer for Walmart U.S., where he helped expand Walmart U.S. beyond traditional retail by building new revenue streams.
David Guggina, President and CEO, Walmart U.S.
David Guggina became President and CEO of Walmart U.S. on February 1, 2026. Prior to this, he served as the Executive Vice President and Chief eCommerce Officer for Walmart U.S., where he was instrumental in building industry-leading delivery capabilities that serve a significant portion of U.S. households. His background is in eCommerce and supply chain operations.
Chris Nicholas, President and CEO, Walmart International
Chris Nicholas was appointed President and CEO of Walmart International, effective February 1, 2026. He previously held the position of President and CEO of Sam's Club U.S.
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Here are the key risks to Walmart's business:
- Intense Competition and E-commerce Dominance: Walmart faces fierce competition across the retail sector, particularly from e-commerce giants like Amazon. This necessitates continuous, substantial investment in its online platforms, technology, and omnichannel capabilities to maintain or grow market share in the rapidly evolving digital retail landscape. The inability to effectively compete in the e-commerce space could significantly impact Walmart's market position, sales, and overall financial performance.
- Margin Compression and High Capital Expenditure: As a mass-market retailer, Walmart operates with characteristically thin margins. To maintain its competitive edge and drive future growth, the company is undertaking significant capital expenditures in areas such as supply chain automation, artificial intelligence for inventory management, and broader technology infrastructure. While these investments are crucial for long-term success, they exert pressure on short-term profitability and require disciplined capital efficiency to ensure positive returns and prevent stagnation of its operating margins.
- Supply Chain Vulnerabilities and Disruptions: Given Walmart's immense global scale, with thousands of stores and a vast network of suppliers across many countries, its supply chain is susceptible to various disruptions. Challenges include the complexity of sourcing from diverse vendors, managing vast inventory levels, and external factors like geopolitical events, climate-related risks (such as extreme weather), and natural disasters. These vulnerabilities can lead to increased operational costs, inventory shortages, and an impaired ability to meet consumer demand.
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The emergence and rapid growth of social commerce platforms, such as TikTok Shop, represent a clear emerging threat to traditional retailers like Walmart. These platforms allow consumers to discover and purchase products directly within social media feeds and live streams, effectively bypassing established e-commerce websites and physical retail stores for a wide range of general merchandise. This model creates a new, highly interactive, and often influencer-driven purchasing channel that can capture significant market share, particularly among younger demographics, for categories like apparel, beauty, home goods, and electronics.
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Addressable Markets for Walmart's Main Products and Services
Walmart Inc. operates across various retail, wholesale, and e-commerce segments globally, with significant addressable markets for its diverse product and service offerings.
Grocery and Consumables
- Globally, the food and grocery retail market was valued at approximately USD 11.9 trillion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 15.0 trillion by 2031. Other estimates place the global market at USD 11,932.5 million in 2023, projected to reach USD 14,781.1 million by 2030.
- In the U.S., the grocery and food market is valued at USD 3 trillion. The U.S. supermarkets and grocery stores market size was $900.6 billion in 2025. The online grocery market in the United States is expected to grow from US$ 183.26 billion in 2024 to reach US$ 715.54 billion by 2033.
Health and Wellness (Pharmacy)
- The global pharmacy market size was estimated at USD 1.35 trillion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach USD 2.06 trillion by 2030. Another report indicates the global pharmacy market size was USD 2,337.97 billion in 2025, projected to grow to USD 4,569.34 billion by 2034.
- For the U.S., the pharmacy market size was estimated at USD 732.44 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach USD 1,707.02 billion by 2033. Another source valued the United States pharmacy market at USD 643.4 billion in 2024, expecting it to reach USD 905.8 billion by 2033.
General Merchandise
- The global general merchandise market was valued at approximately USD 2.63 trillion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach around USD 4.28 trillion by 2033. Another source estimates the global General Merchandise Market size at USD 6,297.43 billion in 2026, expected to reach USD 9,011.84 billion by 2035.
- In the U.S., monthly general merchandise store sales were $77.72 billion in January 2026.
Warehouse Clubs (Sam's Club)
- The global Warehouse Clubs Market was valued at USD 667.81 billion in 2025 and is projected to touch USD 997.23 billion by 2033. Another estimate states the global warehouse supermarket and warehouse club market is estimated at $500 billion in 2025, projected to reach approximately $850 billion by 2033.
- The U.S. Warehouse Clubs Market is expected to reach over $270 billion in 2025. The market size of the Warehouse Clubs & Supercenters in the US was $758.3 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach $770.4 billion in 2026.
E-commerce
- The global e-commerce market size was valued at USD 21.62 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to increase to approximately USD 83.19 trillion by 2035. Other sources indicate the global e-commerce market size was USD 21.3 trillion in 2024, poised to grow to USD 98.89 trillion by 2033.
- The U.S. e-commerce market revenue is estimated to reach approximately USD 1.45 trillion by 2025. The U.S. e-commerce market size is estimated at USD 1,381.6 billion in 2026, growing to USD 2,279.2 billion by 2031.
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Walmart Inc. (WMT) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several strategic initiatives and evolving market dynamics:
- Accelerated E-commerce and Omnichannel Expansion: Walmart continues to prioritize and achieve substantial growth in its e-commerce segment, with online sales consistently increasing by 20% to 27% annually. This growth is fueled by robust store-fulfilled pickup and delivery services, and the expansion of its online marketplace. The company's digital transformation aims to serve customers more conveniently, driving increased transactions and unit volumes across both stores and digital channels.
- Growth in Higher-Margin Alternative Businesses: Walmart is actively expanding its higher-margin businesses, particularly advertising through Walmart Connect and its membership programs like Walmart+ and Sam's Club. Global advertising income has seen significant increases, with Walmart Connect in the U.S. growing by over 40%. Membership income has also demonstrated strong double-digit growth, contributing significantly to operating profit and diversifying the company's revenue streams.
- Strategic Store Development and Automation: The company has a comprehensive expansion strategy that includes building or converting more than 150 new stores and remodeling 650 existing locations over the next five years. Alongside physical expansion, Walmart is making substantial investments in digital transformation, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) and automation within its supply chain and stores. These initiatives aim to automate a significant portion of its stores and fulfillment center operations to enhance efficiency, reduce unit costs, and improve the overall customer experience.
- Increased Market Share in Grocery and Expansion of Health & Wellness Services: Walmart is the largest grocery chain in the U.S., and it continues to gain market share in food and consumables. This is a crucial driver, as grocery sales comprise a significant portion of its revenue. Additionally, the company is expanding its diversification into new service areas, such as healthcare, with plans to operate over 75 Walmart Health centers by early 2025, offering primary care, dental, and behavioral health services.
- Attracting and Retaining Diverse Customer Segments: Walmart has successfully attracted an increasing number of high-income customers, with households earning over $100,000 accounting for a substantial portion of its recent sales gains. This demographic shift, coupled with the company's continuous focus on offering "Everyday Low Prices" and value to all consumers, positions Walmart as a unique defensive powerhouse in a dynamic economic environment. The expansion of its marketplace with a focus on "attainable luxury" also helps broaden its appeal.
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Share Repurchases
- Walmart announced a new $30 billion share buyback program in February 2026.
- Annual share buybacks were $4.494 billion in 2025 and $2.779 billion in 2024.
Share Issuance
- Walmart completed a 3-for-1 stock split in early 2024.
- The number of outstanding shares was approximately 7.97 billion as of March 5th, 2026.
Outbound Investments
- Walmart finalized the acquisition of VIZIO in the U.S. in December 2024.
- The company is committing substantial capital for international expansion, including a $6 billion investment for expansion in Mexico.
- Walmart's majority-owned fintech venture, "One," achieved a $2.5 billion valuation in 2025.
Capital Expenditures
- Walmart's annual capital expenditures were $23.783 billion in 2025, $20.606 billion in 2024, and $16.857 billion in 2023.
- For fiscal year 2026, Walmart projected capital expenditures of approximately $21 billion to $25 billion.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes technology, supply chain automation, physical store upgrades, and customer-facing initiatives, with an estimated $17 billion allocated for streamlining logistics in 2025.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| The Number That Could Test Walmart Stock | 06/13/2026 | |
| The Bear Case: How WMT Behaves During Market Shocks | 05/27/2026 | |
| Walmart Earnings Notes | 05/20/2026 | |
| Walmart Stock Hands $68 Bil Back - Worth a Look? | 05/19/2026 | |
| How Does Walmart Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | 02/20/2026 | |
| Now Is Not The Time To Buy Walmart Stock | 02/19/2026 | |
| How Walmart Stock Gained 30% | 02/13/2026 | |
| Triggers That Could Ignite the Next Rally In Walmart Stock | 02/07/2026 | |
| Why Walmart Stock May Drop Soon | 01/13/2026 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Own Walmart For Value? Dollar Tree’s Numbers Tell A Sharper Story. | 07/10/2026 | |
| The Real Engine Driving Walmart Stock Isn’t On The Shelves | 07/06/2026 | |
| WMT Stock: 4 Impending Events That Could Invalidate the Thesis | 06/01/2026 | |
| Why Walmart’s Post-Earnings Dip Is A Diversification Play | 05/27/2026 | |
| Is Dollar General a Better Buy Than Walmart? | 05/27/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 184.07 |
| Mkt Cap | 366.6 |
| Rev LTM | 230,090 |
| Op Inc LTM | 15,982 |
| FCF LTM | 6,131 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 10,682 |
| CFO LTM | 16,516 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 16,210 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 7.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -1.0% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 11.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 4.3% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 2.6% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 366.6 |
| P/S | 1.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 23.6 |
| P/EBIT | 20.2 |
| P/E | 31.1 |
| P/CFO | 17.4 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3M Rtn | -8.6% |
| 6M Rtn | -6.3% |
| 12M Rtn | 0.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 46.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -11.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -16.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -11.3% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart United States (U.S.) | 485,599 | 465,009 | 443,802 | 420,553 | 393,247 |
| Walmart International | 131,988 | 123,363 | 116,049 | 100,983 | 100,959 |
| Sam's Club United States (U.S.) | 95,540 | 92,561 | 88,230 | 84,345 | 73,556 |
| Corporate and support | 36 | 52 | 44 | 0 | 0 |
| Membership and other income | 5,408 | 4,992 | |||
| Total | 713,163 | 680,985 | 648,125 | 611,289 | 572,754 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart United States (U.S.) | 25,158 | 23,882 | 22,154 | 20,620 | 21,587 |
| Walmart International | 5,103 | 5,501 | 4,909 | 2,965 | 3,758 |
| Sam's Club United States (U.S.) | 2,442 | 2,404 | 2,192 | 1,964 | 2,259 |
| Corporate and support | -2,878 | -2,439 | -2,243 | -5,121 | -1,662 |
| Total | 29,825 | 29,348 | 27,012 | 20,428 | 25,942 |
| $ Mil | 2026 | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walmart United States (U.S.) | 165,627 | 150,006 | 137,782 | 130,659 | 125,044 |
| Walmart International | 86,093 | 80,016 | 86,136 | 86,766 | 91,403 |
| Sam's Club United States (U.S.) | 17,186 | 16,862 | 15,682 | 15,490 | 14,678 |
| Corporate and support | 15,762 | 13,939 | 10,282 | 13,735 | |
| Corporate | 12,799 | ||||
| Total | 284,668 | 260,823 | 252,399 | 243,197 | 244,860 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $108.40 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 863.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/25/1972 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -19.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $118.08 | $117.37 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -8.2% | -7.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 27.1% | 24.6% |
| Downside Capture | -37.25 | -33.74 |
| Upside Capture | -118.47 | -11.35 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -21.2% | -3.1% |
WMT Betas & Captures as of 6/30/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.42 | -0.43 | 0.02 | 0.03 | -0.04 | 0.41 |
| Up Beta | 0.26 | 0.92 | 1.22 | 1.12 | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| Down Beta | -0.50 | -0.18 | -0.29 | -0.14 | -0.26 | 0.41 |
| Up Capture | -71% | -111% | -43% | -20% | -4% | 11% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 24 | 40 | 67 | 140 | 429 |
| Stock +ve Days | 8 | 17 | 32 | 63 | 131 | 413 |
| Down Capture | -46% | -59% | -66% | -47% | -50% | 13% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 10 | 17 | 23 | 58 | 112 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 29 | 60 | 118 | 334 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 14.1% | 24.5% | 0.49 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 4.1% | 13.9% | 0.05 | 62.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.5% | 12.7% | 1.06 | -2.9% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.6% | 28.1% | 0.57 | 1.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 35.2% | 19.1% | 1.45 | -6.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 11.6% | 13.9% | 0.55 | 18.5% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -45.1% | 42.9% | -1.28 | -6.0% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 19.6% | 21.9% | 0.76 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 5.9% | 13.5% | 0.22 | 59.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.57 | 32.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 16.8% | 18.4% | 0.74 | 6.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.8% | 19.5% | 0.39 | 6.5% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.6% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 30.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 15.8% | 53.4% | 0.47 | 9.6% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WMT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 18.0% | 21.8% | 0.74 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.9% | 14.8% | 0.33 | 61.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.9% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 40.3% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.2% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 7.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.4% | 17.9% | 0.33 | 9.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 33.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 58.7% | 66.2% | 0.99 | 9.5% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 6/25/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/21/2026 | -7.3% | -9.1% | -10.4% |
| 2/19/2026 | -1.4% | -0.7% | -4.4% |
| 11/20/2025 | 6.5% | 8.4% | 12.1% |
| 8/21/2025 | -4.5% | -6.3% | -0.2% |
| 5/15/2025 | -0.5% | -0.4% | -2.5% |
| 2/20/2025 | -6.5% | -7.5% | -17.5% |
| 11/19/2024 | 3.0% | 6.4% | 11.5% |
| 8/15/2024 | 6.6% | 9.9% | 17.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 13 | 15 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -3.1% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 7.0% | 9.9% | 17.7% |
| Max Negative | -11.4% | -17.3% | -19.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 5/21/2026 | -7.3% | -9.1% | -10.4% |
| 2/19/2026 | -1.4% | -0.7% | -4.4% |
| 11/20/2025 | 6.5% | 8.4% | 12.1% |
| 8/21/2025 | -4.5% | -6.3% | -0.2% |
| 5/15/2025 | -0.5% | -0.4% | -2.5% |
| 2/20/2025 | -6.5% | -7.5% | -17.5% |
| 11/19/2024 | 3.0% | 6.4% | 11.5% |
| 8/15/2024 | 6.6% | 9.9% | 17.7% |
| 5/16/2024 | 7.0% | 9.1% | 12.0% |
| 2/20/2024 | 3.2% | 5.0% | 7.6% |
| 11/16/2023 | -8.1% | -8.9% | -9.7% |
| 8/17/2023 | -2.2% | -0.7% | 3.4% |
| 5/18/2023 | 1.3% | -1.3% | 4.0% |
| 2/21/2023 | 0.6% | -3.4% | -3.7% |
| 11/15/2022 | 6.5% | 9.2% | 6.4% |
| 8/16/2022 | 5.1% | 1.5% | 1.7% |
| 5/17/2022 | -11.4% | -17.3% | -19.5% |
| 2/17/2022 | 4.0% | 0.7% | 9.3% |
| 11/16/2021 | -2.5% | -1.4% | -0.4% |
| 8/17/2021 | -0.0% | -0.2% | -4.1% |
| 5/18/2021 | 2.2% | 2.1% | -1.3% |
| 2/18/2021 | -6.5% | -9.5% | -11.3% |
| 11/17/2020 | -2.0% | -1.0% | -4.2% |
| 8/18/2020 | -0.7% | -3.1% | 0.5% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| # Negative | 13 | 15 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -3.1% | -4.2% |
| Max Positive | 7.0% | 9.9% | 17.7% |
| Max Negative | -11.4% | -17.3% | -19.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 05/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 03/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 04/30/2026 | 05/29/2026 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2026 | 03/13/2026 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2025 | 12/03/2025 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2025 | 08/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2025 | 06/06/2025 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2025 | 03/14/2025 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2024 | 12/06/2024 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2024 | 08/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2024 | 06/07/2024 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2024 | 03/15/2024 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2023 | 11/30/2023 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2023 | 09/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2023 | 06/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2023 | 03/17/2023 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2022 | 12/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2022 | 09/02/2022 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2022 | 06/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2022 | 03/18/2022 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2021 | 12/01/2021 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2021 | 09/02/2021 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2021 | 06/04/2021 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2021 | 03/19/2021 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2020 | 12/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2020 | 09/02/2020 | 10-Q |
| 04/30/2020 | 06/03/2020 | 10-Q |
| 01/31/2020 | 03/20/2020 | 10-K |
| 10/31/2019 | 12/04/2019 | 10-Q |
| 07/31/2019 | 09/06/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/8/2026Latest: Q1 2027 Earnings Reported 5/21/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q2 2027 Net sales (cc) growth | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | ||||
| Q2 2027 Operating income (cc) growth | 7.0% | 8.5% | 10.0% | ||||
| Q2 2027 Adjusted EPS | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.74 | ||||
| 2027 Net sales (cc) growth | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 0.5% | Raised | Guidance: 3.5% for 2027 | |
| 2027 Adj. operating income (cc) growth | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | ||||
| 2027 Adjusted EPS | 2.75 | 2.8 | 2.85 | 7.7% | Raised | Guidance: 2.6 for 2027 | |
Prior: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 2/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2027 Net Sales Growth | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | ||||
| Q1 2027 Adjusted EPS | 0.59 | 0.6 | 0.61 | ||||
| 2027 Net Sales Growth | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | -29.3% | -1.4% | Lower New | Actual: 4.95% for 2026 |
| 2027 Adjusted EPS | 2.55 | 2.6 | 2.65 | -0.2% | Lower New | Actual: 2.6 for 2026 | |
Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/20/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Net sales growth | 4.8% | 4.95% | 5.1% | 16.5% | 0.7% | Raised | Guidance: 4.25% for 2026 |
| 2026 Adjusted operating income growth | 4.8% | 5.15% | 5.5% | ||||
| 2026 Adjusted EPS | 2.58 | 2.6 | 2.63 | 1.4% | Raised | Guidance: 2.57 for 2026 | |
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 0.04 | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/16/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 109.64 | 3,775 | 413,891 | 69,074,136 | Form |
| 2 | Nicholas, Christopher James | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 6222026 | 118.19 | 2,900 | 342,752 | 67,953,957 | Form |
| 3 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 121.09 | 4,424,704 | 535,788,409 | 60,824,317,250 | Form | |
| 4 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 119.83 | 1,385 | 165,965 | 75,946,281 | Form |
| 5 | Guggina, David W | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 119.82 | 11,978 | 1,435,204 | 14,985,578 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 7022026 | 109.64 | 3,775 | 413,891 | 69,074,136 | Form |
| 2 | Nicholas, Christopher James | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 6222026 | 118.19 | 2,900 | 342,752 | 67,953,957 | Form |
| 3 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 6182026 | 121.09 | 4,424,704 | 535,788,409 | 60,824,317,250 | Form | |
| 4 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 6172026 | 119.83 | 1,385 | 165,965 | 75,946,281 | Form |
| 5 | Guggina, David W | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 6122026 | 119.82 | 11,978 | 1,435,204 | 14,985,578 | Form |
| 6 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 6042026 | 113.32 | 1,771,333 | 200,723,322 | 57,521,912,322 | Form | |
| 7 | McMillon, C Douglas | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 118.63 | 19,416 | 2,303,252 | 495,215,661 | Form | |
| 8 | Watkins, Latriece | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 118.97 | 11,000 | 1,308,670 | 14,300,594 | Form |
| 9 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 119.01 | 207,649 | 24,712,827 | 60,623,514,238 | Form | |
| 10 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 5292026 | 119.05 | 254,178 | 30,260,908 | 60,669,375,276 | Form | |
| 11 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 119.21 | 532,340 | 63,461,675 | 60,780,536,310 | Form | |
| 12 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 5262026 | 120.00 | 1,591,500 | 190,975,799 | 61,430,603,529 | Form | |
| 13 | Furner, John R | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 124.08 | 13,125 | 1,628,574 | 82,022,743 | Form |
| 14 | Nicholas, Christopher James | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5222026 | 123.92 | 2,900 | 359,368 | 71,607,577 | Form |
| 15 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 5182026 | 133.77 | 1,250 | 167,212 | 85,023,213 | Form |
| 16 | McMillon, C Douglas | Direct | Sell | 4242026 | 132.21 | 19,416 | 2,566,987 | 554,487,621 | Form | |
| 17 | Nicholas, Christopher James | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 124.72 | 2,900 | 361,696 | 74,335,673 | Form |
| 18 | Furner, John R | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 124.84 | 13,125 | 1,638,530 | 84,162,702 | Form |
| 19 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 4172026 | 124.63 | 1,335 | 166,381 | 79,369,685 | Form |
| 20 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 122.96 | 2,979,763 | 366,404,040 | 63,145,100,897 | Form | |
| 21 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 3262026 | 122.33 | 299,237 | 36,604,974 | 63,182,773,151 | Form | |
| 22 | Furner, John R | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 3202026 | 121.96 | 13,125 | 1,600,718 | 83,821,173 | Form |
| 23 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3172026 | 126.28 | 1,325 | 167,328 | 80,592,250 | Form |
| 24 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 123.82 | 1,389,792 | 172,079,239 | 63,993,150,036 | Form | |
| 25 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 3112026 | 124.23 | 1,389,794 | 172,655,055 | 64,379,848,043 | Form | |
| 26 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 128.00 | 67,796 | 8,677,990 | 66,511,888,803 | Form | |
| 27 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 128.16 | 682,539 | 87,476,860 | 66,739,535,868 | Form | |
| 28 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 128.10 | 314,572 | 40,297,994 | 66,795,884,051 | Form | |
| 29 | Rainey, John D | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 3042026 | 127.79 | 20,000 | 2,555,714 | 62,201,465 | Form |
| 30 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 127.75 | 1,701,466 | 217,366,533 | 66,761,022,031 | Form | |
| 31 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 127.12 | 21,770 | 2,767,376 | 66,646,151,456 | Form | |
| 32 | McMillon, C Douglas | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 126.71 | 19,416 | 2,460,118 | 509,763,550 | Form | |
| 33 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 127.17 | 65,537 | 8,334,406 | 66,714,820,324 | Form | |
| 34 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 127.01 | 3,734 | 474,272 | 66,640,990,981 | Form | |
| 35 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 2252026 | 125.86 | 1,200,000 | 151,026,483 | 66,033,366,519 | Form | |
| 36 | Watkins, Latriece | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 121.46 | 10,000 | 1,214,630 | 13,153,740 | Form |
| 37 | Nicholas, Christopher James | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 122.00 | 34,082 | 4,158,004 | 65,082,832 | Form |
| 38 | Furner, John R | President & CEO | Direct | Sell | 2232026 | 129.10 | 13,125 | 1,694,479 | 76,310,749 | Form |
| 39 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2192026 | 133.21 | 1,255 | 167,179 | 78,104,824 | Form |
| 40 | Rainey, John D | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2032026 | 122.27 | 20,000 | 2,445,353 | 61,960,838 | Form |
| 41 | McMillon, C Douglas | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 1232026 | 119.17 | 19,416 | 2,313,875 | 509,449,955 | Form |
| 42 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 120.00 | 1,388 | 166,560 | 77,477,080 | Form |
| 43 | Furner, John R | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 1162026 | 119.99 | 13,125 | 1,574,866 | 87,251,179 | Form |
| 44 | Danker, Daniel | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 1152026 | 120.19 | 4,365 | 524,629 | 28,675,236 | Form |
| 45 | Morris, Donna | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 1152026 | 120.19 | 9,384 | 1,127,863 | 64,459,314 | Form |
| 46 | McMillon, C Douglas | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12292025 | 111.83 | 19,416 | 2,171,217 | 482,567,288 | Form |
| 47 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 114.26 | 872,000 | 99,638,227 | 60,098,814,172 | Form | |
| 48 | McLay, Kathryn J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 115.21 | 4,000 | 460,840 | 118,833,935 | Form |
| 49 | Furner, John R | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 12192025 | 114.91 | 13,125 | 1,508,202 | 84,326,068 | Form |
| 50 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 115.31 | 261,000 | 30,095,086 | 60,808,154,056 | Form | |
| 51 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 12172025 | 117.00 | 1,425 | 166,725 | 75,039,431 | Form |
| 52 | Rainey, John D | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 111.23 | 2,200 | 244,706 | 68,664,280 | Form |
| 53 | McMillon, C Douglas | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 12022025 | 109.57 | 19,416 | 2,127,330 | 474,940,061 | Form |
| 54 | Chojnowski, David | Senior Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11262025 | 106.65 | 7,000 | 746,550 | 14,535,222 | Form |
| 55 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 11252025 | 105.96 | 4,145,744 | 439,271,765 | 56,258,172,976 | Form | |
| 56 | Furner, John R | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11242025 | 104.75 | 13,125 | 1,374,908 | 92,164,981 | Form |
| 57 | McLay, Kathryn J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11212025 | 101.63 | 4,000 | 406,520 | 105,741,445 | Form |
| 58 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11192025 | 102.58 | 1,630 | 167,205 | 65,937,158 | Form |
| 59 | Rainey, John D | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 11042025 | 101.18 | 2,200 | 222,602 | 62,684,420 | Form |
| 60 | McMillon, C Douglas | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 10242025 | 107.18 | 19,416 | 2,080,951 | 466,666,408 | Form |
| 61 | McLay, Kathryn J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 10222025 | 107.75 | 4,000 | 431,000 | 112,540,030 | Form |
| 62 | Furner, John R | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 10172025 | 107.78 | 13,125 | 1,414,592 | 96,239,649 | Form |
| 63 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 10172025 | 107.46 | 1,550 | 166,563 | 69,249,122 | Form |
| 64 | Rainey, John D | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 10022025 | 101.33 | 2,200 | 222,933 | 63,000,616 | Form |
| 65 | McMillon, C Douglas | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 9262025 | 103.21 | 19,416 | 2,003,987 | 451,410,753 | Form |
| 66 | Furner, John R | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 9222025 | 103.74 | 13,125 | 1,361,624 | 93,997,628 | Form |
| 67 | McLay, Kathryn J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 9192025 | 103.83 | 4,000 | 415,320 | 108,861,086 | Form |
| 68 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 9172025 | 103.45 | 2,389,000 | 247,148,739 | 55,415,857,897 | Form | |
| 69 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 103.71 | 1,610 | 166,973 | 66,993,306 | Form |
| 70 | Kumar, Suresh | Chief Technology Officer | Direct | Sell | 9162025 | 103.47 | 30,000 | 3,103,968 | 184,913,761 | Form |
| 71 | Rainey, John D | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 9032025 | 97.37 | 2,200 | 214,221 | 60,752,773 | Form |
| 72 | McMillon, C Douglas | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 9022025 | 95.97 | 19,416 | 1,863,447 | 421,615,823 | Form |
| 73 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 96.63 | 1,371,230 | 132,498,527 | 52,771,002,654 | Form | |
| 74 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 96.22 | 767,418 | 73,842,725 | 52,681,654,403 | Form | |
| 75 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 8292025 | 96.09 | 398,852 | 38,325,888 | 52,683,235,558 | Form | |
| 76 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 8262025 | 96.05 | 688,586 | 66,138,134 | 52,852,580,272 | Form | |
| 77 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 8262025 | 96.69 | 317,287 | 30,679,558 | 53,311,738,831 | Form | |
| 78 | Walton, Family Holdings Trust | Direct | Sell | 8262025 | 97.41 | 565,627 | 55,095,613 | 53,735,682,867 | Form | |
| 79 | Furner, John R | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8252025 | 98.55 | 13,125 | 1,293,508 | 90,588,790 | Form |
| 80 | McLay, Kathryn J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8202025 | 100.96 | 4,000 | 403,840 | 106,255,860 | Form |
| 81 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8192025 | 100.38 | 1,655 | 166,124 | 65,001,773 | Form |
| 82 | Rainey, John D | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 8042025 | 98.30 | 2,200 | 216,258 | 61,546,871 | Form |
| 83 | McMillon, C Douglas | President and CEO | Direct | Sell | 7282025 | 95.58 | 19,416 | 1,855,840 | 421,750,225 | Form |
| 84 | McLay, Kathryn J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 7222025 | 95.14 | 4,000 | 380,560 | 100,511,132 | Form |
| 85 | Furner, John R | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 7212025 | 95.14 | 13,125 | 1,248,655 | 88,696,144 | Form |
| 86 | Bartlett, Daniel J | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 7172025 | 95.60 | 1,744 | 166,726 | 62,066,642 | Form |
| 87 | Rainey, John D | Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 7022025 | 98.44 | 2,200 | 216,565 | 61,850,798 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Jul 24, 202613F holdings as of Mar 31, 2026 (Q1 2026)
Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Narus Financial Partners, LLC | $167.5 Mil | 43.9% | 163 | Hold | 13F |
| Heritage Oak Wealth Advisors LLC | $135.3 Mil | 43.0% | 73 | ADD +23.7% | 13F |
| Hexagon Capital Partners LLC | $273.6 Mil | 40.0% | 252 | Hold | 13F |
| Churchill Financial Advisors, LLC | $124.4 Mil | 26.1% | 123 | ADD +59.3% | 13F |
| Uniting Wealth Partners, LLC | $99.7 Mil | 21.2% | 205 | Hold | 13F |
| Legacy Capital Wealth Partners, LLC | $61.0 Mil | 12.6% | 385 | TRIM -6.1% | 13F |
| New Wave Wealth Advisors LLC | $35.0 Mil | 12.2% | 186 | Hold | 13F |
| Coleford Investment Management Ltd. | $36.9 Mil | 9.0% | 24 | TRIM -12.0% | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $31.2 Mil | 6.3% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| OAKMONT Corp | $32.0 Mil | 6.1% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $81.0 Mil | 5.2% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $243.4 Mil | 4.9% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| SRB Corp | $77.1 Mil | 4.7% | 44 | TRIM -14.6% | 13F |
| Iyo Bank, Ltd. | $11.9 Mil | 4.2% | 35 | ADD +25.5% | 13F |
| Joho Capital LLC | $14.9 Mil | 4.0% | 10 | New | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $20.9 Mil | 3.4% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| Gates Foundation Trust | $1.0 Bil | 3.3% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| WS Management LLLP | $15.3 Mil | 2.0% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
| Legacy CG, LLC | $6.9 Mil | 1.9% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $15.1 Mil | 1.8% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $81.0 Mil | 5.2% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $15.1 Mil | 1.8% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Joho Capital LLC | $14.9 Mil | 4.0% | 10 | New | 13F |
| Churchill Financial Advisors, LLC | $124.4 Mil | 26.1% | 123 | ADD +59.3% | 13F |
| Iyo Bank, Ltd. | $11.9 Mil | 4.2% | 35 | ADD +25.5% | 13F |
| Heritage Oak Wealth Advisors LLC | $135.3 Mil | 43.0% | 73 | ADD +23.7% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cypress Funds LLC | $36.2 Mil | 6.0% | 14 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Anomaly Capital Management, LP | $35.6 Mil | 1.3% | 32 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Hook Mill Capital Partners, LP | $17.0 Mil | 1.6% | 39 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| SRB Corp | $77.1 Mil | 4.7% | 44 | TRIM -14.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Coleford Investment Management Ltd. | $36.9 Mil | 9.0% | 24 | TRIM -12.0% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Legacy Capital Wealth Partners, LLC | $61.0 Mil | 12.6% | 385 | TRIM -6.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gates Foundation Trust | $1.0 Bil | 3.3% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Hexagon Capital Partners LLC | $273.6 Mil | 40.0% | 252 | Hold | 13F |
| Castle Hook Partners LP | $243.4 Mil | 4.9% | 44 | Hold | 13F |
| Narus Financial Partners, LLC | $167.5 Mil | 43.9% | 163 | Hold | 13F |
| Heritage Oak Wealth Advisors LLC | $135.3 Mil | 43.0% | 73 | ADD +23.7% | 13F |
| Churchill Financial Advisors, LLC | $124.4 Mil | 26.1% | 123 | ADD +59.3% | 13F |
| Uniting Wealth Partners, LLC | $99.7 Mil | 21.2% | 205 | Hold | 13F |
| Bristol Gate Capital Partners Inc. | $81.0 Mil | 5.2% | 31 | New | 13F |
| SRB Corp | $77.1 Mil | 4.7% | 44 | TRIM -14.6% | 13F |
| Legacy Capital Wealth Partners, LLC | $61.0 Mil | 12.6% | 385 | TRIM -6.1% | 13F |
| Coleford Investment Management Ltd. | $36.9 Mil | 9.0% | 24 | TRIM -12.0% | 13F |
| New Wave Wealth Advisors LLC | $35.0 Mil | 12.2% | 186 | Hold | 13F |
| OAKMONT Corp | $32.0 Mil | 6.1% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Westchester Capital Management, Inc. | $31.2 Mil | 6.3% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
| Kinsale Capital Group, Inc. | $20.9 Mil | 3.4% | 41 | Hold | 13F |
| WS Management LLLP | $15.3 Mil | 2.0% | 35 | Hold | 13F |
| Benchstone Capital Management LP | $15.1 Mil | 1.8% | 38 | New | 13F |
| Joho Capital LLC | $14.9 Mil | 4.0% | 10 | New | 13F |
| Iyo Bank, Ltd. | $11.9 Mil | 4.2% | 35 | ADD +25.5% | 13F |
| Legacy CG, LLC | $6.9 Mil | 1.9% | 45 | Hold | 13F |
WMT Trade Sentinel
Stock Conviction
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Walmart is successfully executing a strategic pivot, with high-margin digital businesses showing rapid growth. However, this progress is currently offset by rising costs and inventory in the core retail operation. The company's reiterated full-year financial targets provide a clear path for profitability to improve, making the outlook constructive pending execution.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Structurally-Protected Transactional (Consumer Staples)(Number of Customer Transactions) x (Average Ticket Size) Growth of high-margin revenue streams (Advertising, Membership, Marketplace) as a percentage of total operating income.
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INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a successful transformation is underway, with high-margin services becoming a primary profit engine.
Mechanism:
Rapidly scaling digital platforms, including a U.S. advertising business growing 36% and marketplace sales up almost 50%, are shifting the profit mix. These services now represent approximately one-third of operating income, improving overall profitability.
Supporting Evidence:
- Enterprise eCommerce sales grew 26% in the most recent quarter.
- The U.S. advertising business grew 36% in Q1 FY27.
- Sales on the U.S. Marketplace platform grew almost 50% for the quarter.
- Enterprise membership fee revenue increased by 17% in Q1 FY27.
- High-margin businesses now represent approximately 1/3 of operating income.
PRIMARY RISK
Rising operating expenses and a recent inventory build are outpacing sales growth, threatening to erode margins faster than new businesses can build them.
Mechanism:
A failure to restore positive operating leverage would confirm this risk.
Supporting Evidence:
- TTM operating expenses grew 7.2% while revenue grew only 5.9%.
- Inventory grew 8.9% in the latest quarter, outpacing 7.3% revenue growth.
- The inventory-to-sales growth gap widened to 1.6 percentage points.
- TTM operating margin declined to 4.2% from 4.3% a year prior.
- Shareholder payouts of $13.2B are not fully funded by $12.6B in FCF.
Key KPI Watchlist
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Walmart U.S. Comparable Sales Growth | 4.3% for the quarter ended April 30, 2026 - Stable | Comparable sales growth has remained robust and stable in the mid-single-digit range over the past three quarters. While the latest quarter shows a slight deceleration from the prior period, the overall trend indicates consistent, strong performance. |
| Enterprise eCommerce Sales Growth | 26% for the quarter ended April 30, 2026 - Stable | eCommerce growth has been consistently strong, up 27% in total, showing a re-acceleration in the latest period. This highlights the sustained momentum of the company's omnichannel strategy. |
| Latest-Quarter Revenue Growth (YoY) | 7.3% (Q2 FY2027 (ended 6/30/2026)) | Indicates the overall top-line growth momentum of the company. |
| Enterprise Membership Fee Revenue Growth (YoY) | 17% (Q1 FY2027) | Tracks the growth of a high-margin, recurring revenue stream that enhances customer loyalty and profitability. |
| Walmart U.S. Advertising Business Growth (YoY) | 36% (Q1 FY2027) | Represents the growth of a key high-margin commerce solution that diversifies the profit stream away from traditional retail. |
Core Investment Debate
Digital Profit vs. Retail Costs
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the rapid scaling of high-margin digital services (advertising, marketplace) will successfully outpace core retail cost pressures, leading to sustained profit growth and a higher valuation for the company.
CORE TENSION
Can high-margin services growth (ads +36%) offset rising core costs (opex +7.2%)?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
The latest data is mixed, showing both strong digital growth and cost pressures. However, management's decision to raise full-year guidance suggests confidence in improving profitability.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue that rising operating expenses and inventory mismanagement are structural issues that will overwhelm gains from the new digital businesses, leading to continued margin compression and stock underperformance.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
8/20/2026 | Negative Earnings Surprise Watch: Guidance for the upcoming quarter and commentary on margin trends and inventory levels. |
8/20/2026 | Inventory Management Failure Watch: Gross margin results and any commentary on markdowns or promotional activity to clear excess inventory. |
8/20/2026 | Next Earnings Report Watch: Walmart is scheduled to report its next quarterly earnings. |
9/9/2026 | Peer Kroger Earnings Watch: Peer Kroger (KR) is scheduled to report earnings. |
9/24/2026 | Peer Competitive Read-Through Watch: Commentary from Costco or Amazon on market share gains, particularly in grocery and general merchandise, and their pricing strategies. |
10/28/2026 | Peer Amazon Earnings Watch: Peer Amazon.com (AMZN) is scheduled to report earnings. |
November 23, 2026 | Asda Legal Hearing Watch: A hearing on the third phase of the Asda Equal Value Claims is scheduled to begin. |
No set date | Adverse Legal Development Watch: News of any court rulings, settlements, or new government investigations related to the disclosed contingencies. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-21 | New Share Repurchase Program Approved Details: In February 2026, the Board of Directors approved a new $30.0 billion share repurchase authorization, replacing the prior program. | -1.6% $112.20 -> $110.39 |
2026-07-06 | Company Announces Summer Price Cuts Details: Walmart and Sam's Club announced thousands of lower prices through Rollbacks on items including ground beef, sweet corn, cherries, and beverages. | -0.3% $111.84 -> $111.54 |
2026-06-04 | Express Delivery Partnership with Subway Details: Walmart announced its first restaurant integration, allowing customers to order Subway for express delivery in as little as 30 minutes through the Walmart app. | +1.7% $116.89 -> $118.88 |
2026-05-21 | Company Raises Full-Year Guidance Details: At the May 21, 2026 earnings report, the company raised its guidance for full-year 2027 Net Sales and Adjusted EPS. | -8.1% $130.85 -> $120.27 |
2026-05-21 | Stock Falls on Profit Outlook Details: Walmart stock fell after the company issued a softer-than-expected profit outlook for the current quarter, despite meeting earnings expectations and strong e-commerce momentum. | -8.1% $130.85 -> $120.27 |
2026-03-03 | Driver Platform Litigation Settled Details: The company reached a settlement with the FTC and certain states regarding its Spark Driver platform, agreeing to a judgment of $100 million, with approximately $63 million suspended. | +0.6% $126.60 -> $127.31 |
2026-02-19 | Stock Reacts Negatively to Earnings Details: The two-day stock reaction around the earnings call was -3.0% versus 0.0% for the S&P 500. | -2.9% $126.12 -> $122.51 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: WMT trades at roughly 26% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (1.8x the market), around the 83rd percentile of its own trailing year. A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
AMZN - Amazon.com
Pure-play digital leaderAmazon offers higher overall growth, with revenue up 14.2% versus Walmart's 5.9%, and significantly higher operating margins at 11.5% versus 4.2%. It provides more direct exposure to scaled eCommerce and cloud computing.
Core Thesis: Invest in the dominant, higher-margin digital ecosystem that continues to gain share in multiple global markets.
COST - Costco Wholesale
Focused membership modelCostco operates a structurally different, lower-margin model (12.9% gross margin) focused on a loyal, fee-paying member base. This provides a more concentrated bet on a high-value, curated retail experience.
Core Thesis: Invest in a highly efficient, membership-driven retailer with a powerful brand and consistent market share gains.
How Is The Market Pricing WMT?
A mature retail giant successfully transforming into a tech-powered omnichannel ecosystem, where high-margin digital services are becoming the primary engine for profit growth.
Walmart is leveraging its immense physical scale as a competitive advantage for its rapidly growing digital businesses, including eCommerce, marketplace, advertising, and membership. While core retail provides a stable, high-volume foundation, the growth and profit story is increasingly driven by this digital ecosystem. This shift is fundamentally improving the company's business mix and margin profile, moving it beyond a traditional low-margin retailer.
What will confirm the thesis
Sustained double-digit growth in eCommerce, advertising, and membership revenues, coupled with operating margin expansion driven by this favorable business mix.
What will damage the thesis
A slowdown in digital growth, failure of high-margin services to offset price investments in the core retail business, or significant market share losses in grocery to competitors like Amazon or Costco.
Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis
Short-term fluctuations in quarterly comparable sales or commodity costs (e.g., fuel) that do not alter the long-term trend of the digital business transformation.
Repricing Catalyst
Increasing market recognition of the scale and profitability of Walmart's digital platforms (advertising, marketplace, membership) and their growing contribution to overall operating income, leading to a re-evaluation of the company as a platform/ecosystem rather than just a retailer.
What WMT Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on fiscal year 2026 filings (the latest reported segment data)
Walmart United States (U.S.)
$485.6B TTM (68% of Total) · 5% MarginWhat It Is
A mass merchandiser of consumer products, including grocery, general merchandise, and health & wellness, operating under the 'Walmart' and 'Walmart Neighborhood Market' brands, as well as walmart.com, serving consumers in all 50 states, Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico.
Who Pays & How
U.S. consumers pay for goods and services, choosing Walmart for its price leadership (EDLP) and the convenience of its omnichannel offerings like same-day pickup and delivery.
Transactional (unit sales of goods) and subscription (Walmart+ membership fees).
Competition
Competes with a wide range of brick and mortar, eCommerce, and omnichannel retailers, including discount, grocery, and department stores. Amazon.com and Costco are named as key peers.
Competitors may have longer histories, more customers, or greater brand recognition in specific lines of business like eCommerce.
An 'everyday low price' (EDLP) philosophy supported by an 'everyday low cost' (EDLC) structure, combined with a vast physical store network that enables a convenient and integrated omnichannel experience.
Walmart International
$132.0B TTM (19% of Total) · 4% MarginWhat It Is
Operates various retail and wholesale formats, including supercenters, supermarkets, and warehouse clubs, as well as eCommerce sites, across 18 countries outside of the U.S., serving both consumers and members.
Who Pays & How
International consumers and members pay for goods and services, attracted by affordable products that leverage Walmart's global ecosystem and deep local expertise.
Transactional (unit sales) and membership fees in markets with warehouse club formats.
Competition
Competes with a wide range of local and global brick and mortar, eCommerce, and omnichannel retailers in each of its 18 countries.
Local competitors may have stronger regional brand recognition or more favorable terms from local suppliers.
Leveraging its global scale and supply chain for cost advantages, while adapting its merchandising and omnichannel strategy to local market preferences.
Sam's Club United States (U.S.)
$95.5B TTM (13% of Total) · 3% MarginWhat It Is
A membership-only warehouse club that sells a curated assortment of bulk-packaged grocery, general merchandise, and health and wellness items, plus fuel, to members in 44 states and Puerto Rico.
Who Pays & How
Members pay an annual fee to access discounted, bulk-sized products. They choose Sam's Club for its value proposition on a curated selection of high-quality goods and services.
Subscription (annual membership fees) and transactional (unit sales).
Competition
Costco Wholesale is a key peer and primary competitor in the membership-only warehouse club space.
Costco has a strong, established brand and loyal member base in the warehouse club model.
Leveraging Walmart's enterprise-wide scale, supply chain, and technology platforms to enhance its omnichannel offerings and provide competitive pricing.
WMT Evolution: Price Return by Era
1962-1991 · Founding and Physical Expansion
The company was founded with a discount store model in 1962, expanding its physical footprint with the launch of Sam's Club in 1983, supercenters in 1988, and its first international venture in 1991.
1996-Present · Early eCommerce and Omnichannel Integration
+4,452%
Walmart began its eCommerce initiatives in 1996. The modern era is defined by a strategic pivot to a 'people-led, tech-powered omnichannel' model, heavily investing in technology, supply chain automation, and digital platforms to seamlessly integrate its vast store network with its growing online presence.
Market Appears To Be Acting Against Core Thesis
Price structure is in a downtrend. Multiple SMA levels broken and declining. Thesis requires reclaiming 200D before any bull case is credible. Relative to SPY: Lagging the market on the 63D window, but 'relative strength' is beginning to stabilize; watch for inflection. Volume and momentum are deeply bearish. The sustained distribution is evident across multiple volume metrics. Earnings history is a strong counter-signal. The market has consistently rejected the narrative. This is not noise, but institutional disagreement.
① Structure
-3
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
-4
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-4
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
-11 / 12
1
Price Structure & Trend
Broken In Short Term · -
▾
2
Momentum
Deteriorating
▾
3
Relative Strength vs. SPY
Strong Underperformance
▾
4
Institutional Footprint & Volume
Mild Distribution
▾
5
Volatility
Normal
▾
6
Key Price Levels
Range · Vol Rising
▾
7
Earnings Reaction History
Consistent Pressure
▾
8
How the Verdict Is Derived
Three Pillars
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Walmart — Investor Video Playlist
Investor / Analyst
FY2027 Q1 Earnings Release
Investor / Analyst
Walmart FY2026 Q3 Earnings Release
Investor / Analyst
Walmart FY2026 Q2 Earnings Release
Products & Services
Introducing the Walmart Discovered Pass on Roblox
Products & Services
Introducing the Walmart Discovered AR Experience
Products & Services
Explore newly launched: Walmart Realm
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail Resources |
| Mass Market Retailers |
| Store Brands |
| Retail Dive |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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Core Cache Last Updated: 7/23/2026