Wells Fargo (WFC)
Market Price (3/17/2026): $76.25 | Market Cap: $237.4 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
Wells Fargo (WFC)
Market Price (3/17/2026): $76.25Market Cap: $237.4 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.4% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -82% | Key risksWFC key risks include [1] ongoing regulatory and compliance issues stemming from its history of scandals and operational restrictions and [2] vulnerabilities within its Commercial Real Estate (CRE) portfolio. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 2.3%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.4% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -82% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -23% |
| Key risksWFC key risks include [1] ongoing regulatory and compliance issues stemming from its history of scandals and operational restrictions and [2] vulnerabilities within its Commercial Real Estate (CRE) portfolio. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Wells Fargo's Q4 2025 revenue fell short of analyst expectations, leading to an immediate stock drop. The bank reported total revenue of $21.29 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, which was below analysts' consensus estimate of $21.65 billion. This revenue miss, despite an increase in net income, disappointed investors and led to a 4.5% decline in Wells Fargo's shares in early trading following the earnings report on January 14, 2026.
2. The company's 2026 Net Interest Income (NII) outlook was slightly below analyst forecasts. Wells Fargo projected its total Net Interest Income to be approximately $50 billion for 2026. This figure was modestly lower than the $50.3 billion forecast by analysts, contributing to investor concerns about the bank's future revenue growth trajectory, despite the recent lifting of its asset cap.
Show more
Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.3% change in WFC stock from 11/30/2025 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 11302025 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 85.43 | 75.75 | -11.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 82,532 | 83,446 | 1.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.5% | 25.6% | 0.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.9 | 11.1 | -14.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,182 | 3,113 | 2.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.3% |
Market Drivers
11/30/2025 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WFC | -11.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.1% | 53.6% |
| Sector (XLF) | -7.6% | 77.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.9% change in WFC stock from 8/31/2025 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -13.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 81.35 | 75.75 | -6.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 81,462 | 83,446 | 2.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.3% | 25.6% | 1.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.8 | 11.1 | -13.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,233 | 3,113 | 3.8% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.9% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WFC | -6.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.0% | 49.4% |
| Sector (XLF) | -8.4% | 74.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -1.2% change in WFC stock from 2/28/2025 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a -14.2% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282025 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 76.66 | 75.75 | -1.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 82,296 | 83,446 | 1.4% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.0% | 25.6% | 6.7% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.9 | 11.1 | -14.2% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,312 | 3,113 | 6.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -1.2% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2025 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WFC | -1.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 13.6% | 66.2% |
| Sector (XLF) | -4.5% | 80.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 74.9% change in WFC stock from 2/28/2023 to 3/16/2026 was primarily driven by a 39.0% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 2282023 | 3162026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 43.31 | 75.75 | 74.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 74,368 | 83,446 | 12.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 18.4% | 25.6% | 39.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 12.0 | 11.1 | -8.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,800 | 3,113 | 22.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 74.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2023 to 3/16/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WFC | 74.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.1% | 53.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 44.3% | 78.9% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WFC Return | 61% | -12% | 23% | 46% | 36% | -20% | 177% |
| Peers Return | 35% | -15% | 17% | 42% | 47% | -12% | 147% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -3% | 77% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WFC Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 67% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 42% | 50% | 65% | 72% | 13% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 33% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WFC Max Drawdown | -2% | -21% | -12% | -6% | -13% | -20% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -29% | -14% | -4% | -18% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -3% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JPM, BAC, C, GS, MS. See WFC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 3/16/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WFC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 392 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 435 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,144 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -79.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 390.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,534 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to JPM, BAC, C, GS, MS
In The Past
Wells Fargo's stock fell -38.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2022. A -38.7% loss requires a 63.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Wells Fargo (WFC)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are a few analogies to describe Wells Fargo:
A financial superstore for individuals and businesses.
The Walmart of banking.
Like JPMorgan Chase or Bank of America, a major diversified U.S. bank.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Checking and Savings Accounts: Provides fundamental banking services for consumers and small businesses.
- Credit and Debit Cards: Offers payment solutions for everyday transactions and credit access.
- Consumer Lending: Includes home, auto, personal, and small business loans.
- Commercial Banking Services: Provides banking and credit products for private, family-owned, and certain public companies.
- Treasury Management Services: Manages cash flow, payments, and liquidity for businesses and institutions.
- Corporate Banking: Offers financial products and services to corporate, commercial real estate, and government clients.
- Investment Banking: Provides advisory and capital raising services, including equity and fixed income solutions.
- Commercial Real Estate Lending: Specializes in lending and servicing for commercial properties.
- Wealth and Investment Management: Delivers personalized wealth management, financial planning, and brokerage services to affluent clients.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Wells Fargo (WFC) serves a diverse customer base. Given the extensive range of products and services offered to individuals across its Consumer Banking and Lending and Wealth and Investment Management segments, and the inability to name specific corporate customers as per the request's constraints, it can be concluded that the company primarily serves individuals and related entities. Therefore, its major customer categories are:
- Individual Consumers: This category includes the general public and small businesses who utilize services such as checking and savings accounts, credit and debit cards, and various lending products including home, auto, personal, and small business loans.
- Affluent, High-Net Worth, and Ultra-High-Net Worth Individuals: These clients are served by the Wealth and Investment Management segment, receiving personalized wealth management, brokerage, financial planning, private banking, lending, and trust and fiduciary services.
- Small and Medium-sized Businesses (SMBs): This category encompasses private, family-owned, and certain public companies, as well as small businesses, that rely on Wells Fargo for banking and credit products, secured lending, lease products, and treasury management services.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- Visa (V)
- Mastercard (MA)
- Equifax (EFX)
- TransUnion (TRU)
AI Analysis | Feedback
Charles W. Scharf, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Charles W. Scharf has served as the Chief Executive Officer of Wells Fargo & Company since October 2019 and became Chairman of the Board of Directors in October 2025. With over 30 years of experience in leadership roles within the banking and payments industries, he previously served as chief executive officer of Bank of New York Mellon from July 2017 to September 2019 and as chairman of its board. Before that, he was chief executive officer and a director of Visa Inc. from November 2012 to December 2016. Scharf's career also includes significant roles at JPMorgan Chase & Co., where he was a managing director of One Equity Partners and CEO of Retail Financial Services. He also served as CEO of the retail division of Bank One Corp. and held chief financial officer positions at Bank One Corp., Citigroup’s Global Corporate and Investment Bank division, and Salomon Smith Barney. Scharf began his career working with Jamie Dimon and Sandy Weill at Commercial Credit, progressing through various companies including Primerica, Smith Barney, Salomon Brothers, and Travelers. He is also a director of Microsoft Corporation.
Mike Santomassimo, Chief Financial Officer and Senior Executive Vice President
Mike Santomassimo is the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) and Senior Executive Vice President of Wells Fargo, a position he assumed in Fall 2020, following an announcement in July 2020. He is responsible for the company's financial management functions, including accounting and control, financial planning and analysis, treasury, and investor relations. Santomassimo is a 30-year veteran of banking, having previously served as CFO at BNY Mellon since 2018. Prior to joining BNY Mellon, he spent 11 years at JPMorgan Chase in various key finance leadership roles. His roles at JPMorgan Chase included CFO for Banking, overseeing investment banking and treasury services, and CFO of the securities services & U.S. private banking businesses. Santomassimo began his career at Smith Barney, where he held various roles, including co-head of the Strategy and Finance team for the brokerage division.
Derek A. Flowers, Senior EVP, Head of Risk
Derek A. Flowers serves as the Senior Executive Vice President and Head of Risk at Wells Fargo.
Scott E. Powell, Senior EVP, Chief Operating Officer
Scott E. Powell holds the position of Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer at Wells Fargo.
Barry Sommers, Senior EVP, CEO of Wealth & Investment Management
Barry Sommers is the Senior Executive Vice President and CEO of Wealth & Investment Management at Wells Fargo. He joined Wells Fargo in June 2020, having previously worked at JP Morgan Chase.
AI Analysis | Feedback
The public company Wells Fargo (WFC) faces several key risks, primarily stemming from its extensive history of regulatory and compliance issues, the lasting impact on its reputation, and the inherent volatility associated with interest rate changes.
-
Regulatory and Compliance Risks: Wells Fargo has been subject to significant regulatory scrutiny and numerous enforcement actions due to widespread misconduct, including the infamous "fake accounts" scandal where employees created millions of unauthorized customer accounts. This history has resulted in billions of dollars in fines and settlements from various regulatory bodies such as the Federal Reserve, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). While the Federal Reserve recently terminated its 2018 enforcement action and lifted the asset cap, the bank continues to face outstanding consent orders, particularly from the OCC, related to deficiencies in anti-money laundering controls and financial crime risk management. The ongoing need for substantial investment in compliance infrastructure, governance reform, and internal risk management remains a significant operational and financial burden.
-
Reputational Risk: Directly linked to its past misconduct and regulatory challenges, Wells Fargo has endured significant damage to its brand and public trust. The various scandals have eroded customer confidence, making the rebuilding and maintenance of trust a critical, ongoing challenge for the company. This tarnished reputation can impact customer acquisition, retention, and overall market standing in a competitive financial services landscape.
-
Net Interest Income (NII) Volatility and Interest Rate Risk: As a diversified financial services company, Wells Fargo's profitability is significantly exposed to fluctuations in interest rates. The company recently trimmed its 2025 Net Interest Income (NII) guidance, attributing the revision to rising deposit costs and lower NII in its Markets business. Lower asset yields, influenced by Federal Reserve rate decisions, have also negatively impacted NII, despite efforts to manage deposit costs. Managing this inherent interest rate risk through strategies like hedging is crucial for the bank's financial performance.
AI Analysis | Feedback
- The rise of **Fintech companies**, including neobanks and specialized digital lenders, offering more agile, digital-first, and often lower-cost alternatives across banking, lending, and payment services. These companies are attracting customers with superior digital experiences and tailored financial products, directly impacting Wells Fargo's traditional consumer banking, small business lending, and payment processing.
- The increasing entry of **Big Tech companies** (e.g., Apple, Google, Amazon) into financial services, leveraging their vast customer bases, extensive data, and technological prowess to offer credit cards, payment solutions, and lending products. This poses a significant competitive threat in consumer banking, payments, and small business lending segments.
- The expansion of **robo-advisors and low-cost digital investment platforms** that provide automated, cost-effective wealth management and investment advice. These platforms directly challenge Wells Fargo's traditional wealth and investment management services, particularly for mass affluent and younger clients seeking accessible financial planning and brokerage options.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Here are the addressable market sizes for Wells Fargo's main products and services:- Consumer Banking and Lending:
- Retail Banking: The U.S. retail banking market size stands at approximately USD 0.87 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1.08 trillion by 2030.
- Credit and Debit Cards: The U.S. credit card market size was approximately USD 190 billion in 2024.
- Home Lending (Mortgage Market): The total U.S. mortgage market is approximately USD 14.5 trillion.
- Auto Lending: The U.S. auto loan market size is projected to be USD 676.20 billion in 2025.
- Small Business Lending: The U.S. small business loan market was valued at approximately USD 245.39 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 349.64 billion by 2033.
- Commercial Banking:
- Commercial Banking: The U.S. commercial banking market size stands at approximately USD 732.5 billion in 2025 and is forecasted to reach USD 915.45 billion by 2030.
- Corporate and Investment Banking:
- Investment Banking: The global investment banking market size was valued at approximately USD 111.0 billion in 2024 and is poised to grow to USD 221.89 billion by 2033. North America's investment banking market was valued at USD 44.72 billion in 2025.
- Commercial Real Estate Lending: The U.S. commercial real estate (CRE) mortgage market consists of approximately USD 4.5 trillion backed by income-producing properties.
- Wealth and Investment Management:
- Wealth and Asset Management: The United States Asset Management Market was valued at approximately USD 52.08 trillion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 134.67 trillion by 2030.
AI Analysis | Feedback
Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) anticipates several key drivers for future revenue growth over the next two to three years, stemming from strategic investments, an evolving interest rate environment, and the easing of regulatory constraints.
One significant driver is the **growth in Net Interest Income (NII)**. Wells Fargo projects its NII to be approximately $50 billion in 2026, with contributions from both Markets NII and NII excluding Markets. This growth is expected to be supported by anticipated mid-single-digit growth in average loans and deposits from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026. While sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, the company's actions are aimed at driving stronger returns over the economic cycle.
A second driver involves the **expansion and diversification of fee-based revenue**. Wells Fargo is strategically investing in areas such as credit cards, investment banking, and trading, with early signs pointing to increased market share and fee growth. Non-interest income saw a 5% year-over-year increase in 2025, driven by strong performance in investment banking (up 11% in 2025) and markets revenue (up 7% in 2025). Fees from providing investment banking and markets capabilities to Commercial Banking clients also experienced over 25% growth in 2025. The Wealth and Investment Management segment notably reported a 10% year-over-year revenue increase in Q4 2025, fueled by fees and net income, with plans for further investment in the independent broker/dealer channel and RIA solutions in 2026.
Thirdly, **customer and balance growth across key business segments** is expected to contribute to revenue expansion. In Consumer Banking, the company observed stronger growth in net checking accounts and opened nearly 3 million new credit card accounts in 2025, marking a 21% increase from the prior year. Credit card balances also grew by 6% in 2025, and the auto business returned to growth with a 19% increase in loan balances. In Commercial Banking, Wells Fargo has expanded its team by hiring 185 coverage bankers over the last two years, enhancing its ability to serve clients. Efforts to refurbish 700 branches in 2025 are also aimed at improving customer experience and driving engagement.
Finally, the **easing of regulatory constraints** is anticipated to facilitate broader growth. The removal of the asset cap by the Federal Reserve and the termination of multiple consent orders are expected to enable stronger growth in Wells Fargo's consumer and commercial businesses, allowing the company to pursue opportunities more aggressively.
AI Analysis | Feedback
1. Share Repurchases
- Wells Fargo's board authorized a new common stock repurchase program of up to $30 billion in July 2023.
- In April 2025, the board authorized a new common stock repurchase program of up to $40 billion, set to commence upon the completion of the existing program.
- The company repurchased approximately $20 billion of common stock in 2024, an increase of 64% from the prior year, contributing to a total of $25 billion returned to shareholders in 2024. In 2025, $18 billion in common stock was repurchased.
2. Share Issuance
- Wells Fargo's shares outstanding have consistently declined over the past few years due to repurchases, with a 6.5% decline in 2025 from 2024 (to 3.242 billion shares) and a 6.79% decline in 2024 from 2023 (to 3.468 billion shares).
4. Outbound Investments
- The company has been making investments to drive organic growth and enhance the earnings capacity across its various businesses.
- Wells Fargo has been investing in its wholesale businesses and has shown strong performance from its venture capital investments.
- Management plans to invest in improving its existing businesses, including increasing its share in the middle-market investment banking market, allocating more resources to credit card services, and revitalizing its wealth management division.
5. Capital Expenditures
- Wells Fargo did not report meaningful capital expenditures for the latest twelve months ending December 31, 2025.
- The company's cash flow for capital expenditures for the three months ending September 2025 and for the trailing twelve months ending September 2025 was $0 million.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to WFC.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02282026 | NDAQ | Nasdaq | Insider | Insider Buys 45DStrong Insider BuyingCompanies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | JEF | Jefferies Financial | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | PAYO | Payoneer Global | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02272026 | FOUR | Shift4 Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 02202026 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 2.6% | 2.6% | -6.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 131.52 |
| Mkt Cap | 243.8 |
| Rev LTM | 84,236 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | -34,002 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -22,876 |
| CFO LTM | -32,078 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -20,169 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.4% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -52.3% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -31.4% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -56.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -34.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 243.8 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 13.5 |
| P/CFO | -5.4 |
| Total Yield | 7.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -8.9% |
| D/E | 1.3 |
| Net D/E | -0.6 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -9.5% |
| 3M Rtn | -11.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -2.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 32.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 130.4% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -9.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -4.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 15.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 46.3% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Banking and Lending | 36,201 | 35,810 | 34,877 | 34,016 | |
| Corporate and Investment Banking | 19,344 | 15,242 | 13,839 | 13,928 | |
| Wealth and Investment Management | 15,436 | 14,822 | 14,346 | 13,213 | |
| Commercial Banking | 12,778 | 10,920 | 8,549 | 9,175 | |
| Corporate | 338 | -415 | 8,495 | 5,357 | |
| Reconciling Items | -1,801 | -2,011 | -1,614 | -1,425 | |
| Total | 82,296 | 74,368 | 78,492 | 74,264 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate and Investment Banking | 7,338 | 5,878 | 6,062 | 950 | |
| Consumer Banking and Lending | 7,009 | 5,441 | 8,555 | 1,076 | |
| Commercial Banking | 4,689 | 4,018 | 3,134 | -689 | |
| Wealth and Investment Management | 1,902 | 2,422 | 2,027 | 1,538 | |
| Reconciling Items | 0 | 0 | |||
| Corporate | -1,216 | -4,082 | 1,770 | 502 | |
| Total | 19,722 | 13,677 | 21,548 | 3,377 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate | 633,799 | 641,455 | 601,218 | 721,335 | 728,667 |
| Corporate and Investment Banking | 597,278 | 557,642 | 550,177 | 546,549 | 508,518 |
| Consumer Banking and Lending | 361,663 | 376,151 | 387,710 | 378,620 | 420,995 |
| Commercial Banking | 246,569 | 245,159 | 250,198 | 210,810 | 206,953 |
| Wealth and Investment Management | 90,536 | 88,854 | 91,717 | 90,754 | 87,778 |
| Reconciling Items | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 1,929,845 | 1,909,261 | 1,881,020 | 1,948,068 | 1,952,911 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $75.75 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 235.8 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/01/1972 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -21.0% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $87.47 | $83.29 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -13.4% | -9.1% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 28.7% | 29.3% |
| Downside Capture | 225.90 | 124.47 |
| Upside Capture | 129.73 | 110.37 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 53.4% | 65.4% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.68 | 1.52 | 1.40 | 1.13 | 1.04 | 1.03 |
| Up Beta | 0.80 | 0.82 | 0.52 | 0.89 | 0.73 | 0.84 |
| Down Beta | 1.15 | 1.00 | 0.79 | 1.03 | 1.32 | 1.17 |
| Up Capture | 182% | 141% | 186% | 116% | 118% | 132% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 9 | 20 | 31 | 70 | 142 | 431 |
| Stock +ve Days | 12 | 20 | 33 | 69 | 137 | 395 |
| Down Capture | 232% | 240% | 195% | 129% | 113% | 102% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 30 | 54 | 109 | 320 |
| Stock -ve Days | 9 | 21 | 28 | 55 | 113 | 353 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WFC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WFC | 13.1% | 29.4% | 0.42 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 5.1% | 19.3% | 0.13 | 79.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 22.5% | 18.9% | 0.94 | 65.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 68.7% | 26.2% | 1.98 | 1.1% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 19.7% | 17.3% | 0.91 | 21.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 9.3% | 16.2% | 0.37 | 47.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -9.2% | 44.2% | -0.09 | 24.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WFC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WFC | 17.4% | 30.3% | 0.57 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 9.6% | 18.7% | 0.40 | 80.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.1% | 17.0% | 0.60 | 56.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 17.2% | 1.12 | -0.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.2% | 19.0% | 0.47 | 15.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 18.8% | 0.16 | 40.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 6.1% | 56.7% | 0.33 | 20.8% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WFC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WFC | 7.2% | 32.1% | 0.29 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.6% | 22.2% | 0.52 | 85.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 14.7% | 17.9% | 0.70 | 64.1% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.4% | 15.6% | 0.76 | -5.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.4% | 17.6% | 0.39 | 24.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.6% | 20.7% | 0.24 | 50.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 67.9% | 66.8% | 1.07 | 18.1% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/14/2026 | -4.6% | -8.0% | -7.3% |
| 10/14/2025 | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.8% |
| 7/15/2025 | -5.5% | -3.8% | -4.2% |
| 4/11/2025 | -1.0% | 2.5% | 19.3% |
| 1/15/2025 | 6.7% | 8.9% | 11.3% |
| 10/11/2024 | 5.6% | 11.5% | 22.0% |
| 7/12/2024 | -6.0% | -1.5% | -11.6% |
| 4/12/2024 | -0.4% | 3.6% | 9.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 14 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 6.0% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -4.0% | -7.3% |
| Max Positive | 7.1% | 11.7% | 22.0% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -11.9% | -22.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/24/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santos, Kleber | Sr. Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2202026 | 87.72 | 25,000 | 2,193,000 | 7,006,681 | Form |
| 2 | Patterson, Ellen R | Sr. EVP and General Counsel | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 87.40 | 60,000 | 5,244,000 | 14,813,985 | Form |
| 3 | Engle, Bridget E | Sr. Executive Vice President | Direct | Sell | 2272026 | 87.10 | 30,000 | 2,613,000 | 7,270,963 | Form |
WFC Trade Sentinel
AVOID (Score 1-2)
CONVICTION RATIONALE
The probability-adjusted skew is below 1.0x, indicating an unfavorable risk/reward profile. The downside scenario, driven by a highly plausible cyclical credit deterioration in CRE, carries a higher probability (60%) than the upside turnaround case. While the 'Alpha Driver' is significant, it is pitted against a strong macro headwind and a 'Contested' moat, making the path to outperformance uncertain. The investment is unattractive at the current price given this balanced risk.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Turnaround / Deep ValueWFC fits the 'Turnaround' archetype as its primary investment thesis is not based on market growth (which is mature) but on a specific, company-centric catalyst: the 2025 removal of the Federal Reserve's asset cap. The focus is on strategic execution to close the significant operational and valuation gap with peers like JPM.
INVESTMENT THESIS
The primary driver for Wells Fargo is the regulatory green light to grow its balance sheet after years of being constrained by a Federal Reserve asset cap. This allows the bank to re-accelerate loan growth and deploy excess capital, creating significant operating leverage as revenue growth from new assets should outpace expense growth, driving margin expansion and closing the profitability gap to peers.
- The removal of the Federal Reserve's asset cap in 2025 is the single most important forward catalyst.
- Management has guided to 2026 Net Interest Income of ~$50B, up from $47.5B in 2025, signaling the immediate benefit of balance sheet growth.
- Recent momentum includes a 21% increase in new credit card accounts and a 19% rise in auto lending balances.
- There is a potential for ~1580 bps of operating margin expansion to reach the level of its most efficient peer, JPMorgan Chase.
PRIMARY RISK
The primary risk is a cyclical downturn in the Commercial Real Estate (CRE) market, particularly the office segment. A significant deterioration in this portfolio would force WFC to materially increase its provision for credit losses, directly reducing net income and EPS. This could overshadow the benefits of the asset cap removal and cause the market to price in a broader credit cycle risk for the bank.
- U.S. office vacancy rates reached a record high of 20.6% in Q2 2025, with forecasts projecting elevated vacancy through 2026.
- WFC's provision for credit losses increased significantly to $1.04 billion in Q4 2025, up from $681 million in Q3 2025, signaling rising credit stress.
- A historical parallel is New York Community Bancorp's stock falling over 37% after announcing a surprise increase in provisions tied to CRE weakness.
| KPI | Threshold | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Efficiency Ratio | Consistently below 62% | This is the most direct measure of management's ability to create operating leverage and close the gap with JPM. Improvement here validates the core of the turnaround thesis. |
| Average Loans Growth (YoY) | > 5.0% | Tracks the tangible result of the asset cap removal. Growth above the industry average is necessary to prove WFC is successfully regaining market share and capitalizing on its new freedom. |
| Provision for Credit Losses | < $1.2 Billion (Quarterly) | This is the primary leading indicator for the 'Anti-Alpha' thesis. A sustained increase above this level would signal that CRE/cyclical credit problems are overwhelming the positive turnaround narrative. |
Turnaround Execution vs. Cyclical Credit Risk
BULL VIEW
The removal of the Fed's asset cap unleashes powerful operating leverage, driving loan growth (>5% YoY) and efficiency gains that will overshadow manageable CRE provisions.
CORE TENSION
Can company-specific operational improvements (post-asset cap growth) overcome the powerful macro headwind of a deteriorating Commercial Real Estate (CRE) market?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The 'Market-Rewarded KPIs' module shows Average Loans growth accelerating to +5.0% YoY and Net Interest Income growth accelerating to +4.5% YoY in Q4 2025, validating the Bull Stance.
BEAR VIEW
A CRE downturn will force credit provisions to spike above $1.5B/quarter, erasing turnaround benefits and causing a P/E multiple compression back to historical lows.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Report Watch: Provision for Credit Losses, specifically guidance on CRE Net Charge-Offs. Threshold: < $1.2 Billion. |
Q1-Q2 2026 | Basel III 'Endgame' Re-Proposal Details Released Watch: Regulatory language regarding Risk-Weighted Asset (RWA) calculations and required capital levels for large banks. |
Anytime | Major Third-Party Vendor Security Incident Watch: News of a data breach at a critical financial software provider or core processor used by WFC. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 12, 2025 | Strategic Update on Growth Initiatives Details: Management commentary highlighted strong growth in new credit card accounts (+21%) and auto lending (+19%), signaling successful execution of post-asset cap strategy. | Rose significantly by 2.4% $76.80 -> $78.67 |
Sep 9, 2025 | Barclays Global Financial Services Conference Details: CFO Mike Santomassimo presented, highlighting the bank's progress post-asset cap removal and strategic priorities, leading to a positive stock reaction. | Modest 2.0% gain $78.34 -> $79.94 |
Oct 14, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: The bank reported strong results, including a 25% increase in investment banking fees and significant share repurchases, boosting investor confidence. | Surged +7.1% $78.12 -> $83.70 |
Nov 6, 2025 | BancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference Details: CFO Mike Santomassimo provided insights into the bank's financial strategy. The stock saw a minor pullback following the event. | Slight -1.0% pullback $86.07 -> $85.17 |
Dec 9, 2025 | Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference Details: CEO Charlie Scharf presented, likely providing an update on strategic initiatives and capital return plans. The market reaction was muted. | Slight -1.3% pullback $89.61 -> $88.45 |
Jan 14, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Despite beating EPS forecasts, stock fell after total revenue slightly missed analyst expectations, signaling high market focus on top-line growth. Provisions for credit losses rose. | Fell notably by -4.6% $93.10 -> $88.81 |
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock has moderate, compressing volatility. While the Bullish sentiment is driven by a strong turnaround catalyst, the Fair valuation and Contested moat prevent a maximum-risk position.
Diversification Alternatives
JPM
INDUSTRYJPM offers exposure to the same sector with a superior efficiency ratio (~56% vs WFC's 64%), a less-contested competitive moat, and no single-stock turnaround execution risk.
MS
INDUSTRYMorgan Stanley's business is heavily weighted toward wealth management, making it less exposed to the credit cycle and CRE risks that define the Wells Fargo bear case.
Wells Fargo is transitioning from a period of regulatory remediation and operational streamlining to a new phase focused on disciplined growth in its core franchises, driven by expense efficiency and capital returns.
Filter all news through the lens of expense discipline, net interest income (NII) trajectory, and progress on lifting the Federal Reserve asset cap.
Sustained expense reduction meeting or exceeding guidance; NII guidance holding steady or increasing despite potential rate cuts; concrete steps or timelines announced regarding the removal of the asset cap; continued growth in credit card and auto loan balances.
Failure to control noninterest expense, leading to negative operating leverage; larger-than-expected declines in NII due to deposit pricing pressure or accelerated Fed rate cuts; significant increases in provisions for credit losses, particularly in Commercial Real Estate (CRE); any new material regulatory penalties or setbacks.
Minor quarterly fluctuations in investment banking fees; typical seasonal variations in mortgage banking; broad market commentary on the banking sector not specific to WFC's unique regulatory situation.
Repricing Catalyst
The primary catalyst is the successful execution of its expense management program, targeting ~$55.7 billion in non-interest expenses for 2026, and the eventual removal of the Federal Reserve's asset cap, which would unlock balance sheet growth and improve sentiment. Achieving the new medium-term Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) target of 17-18% would signal a significant re-rating event.
Consumer Banking & Lending
$38.4B TTM (45% of Total) · -1% MarginWhat It Is
Checking and savings accounts, credit cards, debit cards, home mortgages, auto loans, personal loans, and small business lending.
Who Pays & How
Serves one in three U.S. households who pay through net interest margin on deposits and loans, and various service fees. Customers choose WFC for its vast branch and ATM network, brand recognition, and bundled product offerings which create moderate switching costs.
Competition
Corporate & Investment Banking
$19.6B TTM (23% of Total) · -1% MarginWhat It Is
Financial solutions for large corporate, government, and institutional clients, including corporate banking, investment banking (advisory and underwriting), treasury management, and commercial real estate.
Who Pays & How
Large corporations and institutions pay for capital (loans, debt issuance) and services (cash management, advisory) to run their businesses. Clients choose WFC for its balance sheet capacity and established relationships.
Competition
Wealth & Investment Management
$16.8B TTM (20% of Total) · -1% MarginWhat It Is
Personalized wealth management, investment, and retirement products and services to affluent and high-net-worth clients.
Who Pays & How
High-net-worth individuals and families pay asset-based fees for investment management and financial planning services. Clients choose WFC for its brand, integrated platform, and personal advisor relationships.
Competition
Commercial Banking
$12.4B TTM (12% of Total) · -1% MarginWhat It Is
Financial solutions for private and public middle-market companies, including loans, treasury management, asset-based lending, and equipment finance.
Who Pays & How
Middle-market companies (over 10% of all in the U.S. are served by WFC) pay for credit and services to operate and grow their businesses. Relationships are key, and high switching costs for integrated services like treasury management provide lock-in.
Competition
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
Prefer one of these to Trefis? Tell us why.