Wells Fargo (WFC)
Market Price (2/18/2026): $87.51 | Market Cap: $278.5 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
Wells Fargo (WFC)
Market Price (2/18/2026): $87.51Market Cap: $278.5 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -60% | Key risksWFC key risks include [1] ongoing regulatory and compliance issues stemming from its history of scandals and operational restrictions and [2] vulnerabilities within its Commercial Real Estate (CRE) portfolio. |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.5%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.2% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -60% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17% |
| Key risksWFC key risks include [1] ongoing regulatory and compliance issues stemming from its history of scandals and operational restrictions and [2] vulnerabilities within its Commercial Real Estate (CRE) portfolio. |
Qualitative Assessment
AI Analysis | Feedback
Wells Fargo (WFC) stock has remained largely at the same level since 10/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Wells Fargo reported a stronger-than-expected adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) for the fourth quarter of 2025, surpassing analyst estimates. While revenue slightly missed forecasts, the EPS beat, alongside management's positive outlook for 2026 that includes anticipated mid-single-digit loan growth and an increase in net interest income, instilled confidence in the company's future profitability.
2. The company successfully met its previous financial targets and demonstrated a commitment to shareholder returns. Wells Fargo achieved its 15% return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) target for the full year 2025 and subsequently set a new, higher medium-term target of 17-18%. Additionally, the repurchase of $5.0 billion in common stock during the fourth quarter of 2025 signals robust capital management and a focus on delivering value to investors.
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1. Wells Fargo reported a stronger-than-expected adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) for the fourth quarter of 2025, surpassing analyst estimates. While revenue slightly missed forecasts, the EPS beat, alongside management's positive outlook for 2026 that includes anticipated mid-single-digit loan growth and an increase in net interest income, instilled confidence in the company's future profitability.
2. The company successfully met its previous financial targets and demonstrated a commitment to shareholder returns. Wells Fargo achieved its 15% return on tangible common equity (ROTCE) target for the full year 2025 and subsequently set a new, higher medium-term target of 17-18%. Additionally, the repurchase of $5.0 billion in common stock during the fourth quarter of 2025 signals robust capital management and a focus on delivering value to investors.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The 1.5% change in WFC stock from 10/31/2025 to 2/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 1.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 10312025 | 2172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 86.09 | 87.40 | 1.5% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 82,532 | 82,532 | 0.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 25.5% | 25.5% | 0.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.0 | 13.2 | 1.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,182 | 3,182 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 1.5% |
Market Drivers
10/31/2025 to 2/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WFC | 1.5% | |
| Market (SPY) | 0.1% | 52.0% |
| Sector (XLF) | -0.3% | 72.6% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 10.1% change in WFC stock from 7/31/2025 to 2/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 4.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 2172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 79.35 | 87.40 | 10.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 81,582 | 82,532 | 1.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 24.5% | 25.5% | 4.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.0 | 13.2 | 1.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,280 | 3,182 | 3.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 10.1% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 2/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WFC | 10.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | 45.9% |
| Sector (XLF) | 0.0% | 71.5% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 13.9% change in WFC stock from 1/31/2025 to 2/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 16.2% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 1312025 | 2172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 76.75 | 87.40 | 13.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 82,396 | 82,532 | 0.2% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.0% | 25.5% | 16.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.4 | 13.2 | -8.0% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,385 | 3,182 | 6.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 13.9% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2025 to 2/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WFC | 13.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 14.5% | 66.3% |
| Sector (XLF) | 2.5% | 79.8% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 102.7% change in WFC stock from 1/31/2023 to 2/17/2026 was primarily driven by a 35.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312023 | 2172026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 43.12 | 87.40 | 102.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 75,864 | 82,532 | 8.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 22.2% | 25.5% | 15.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 9.7 | 13.2 | 35.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 3,796 | 3,182 | 19.3% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 102.7% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2023 to 2/17/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| WFC | 102.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 74.2% | 53.7% |
| Sector (XLF) | 49.3% | 78.7% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WFC Return | 61% | -12% | 23% | 46% | 36% | -6% | 225% |
| Peers Return | 35% | -15% | 17% | 42% | 47% | -3% | 171% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | -0% | 82% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WFC Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 67% | 0% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 42% | 50% | 65% | 72% | 20% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WFC Max Drawdown | -2% | -21% | -12% | -6% | -13% | -8% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -2% | -29% | -14% | -4% | -18% | -4% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -1% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: JPM, BAC, C, GS, MS. See WFC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 2/17/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WFC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 392 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 435 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2,144 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -79.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 390.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1,534 days | 1,480 days |
Compare to JPM, BAC, C, GS, MS
In The Past
Wells Fargo's stock fell -38.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2022. A -38.7% loss requires a 63.0% gain to breakeven.
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About Wells Fargo (WFC)
Wells Fargo & Company, a diversified financial services company, provides banking, investment, mortgage, and consumer and commercial finance products and services in the United States and internationally. It operates through four segments: Consumer Banking and Lending; Commercial Banking; Corporate and Investment Banking; and Wealth and Investment Management. The Consumer Banking and Lending segment offers diversified financial products and services for consumers and small businesses. Its financial products and services include checking and savings accounts, and credit and debit cards, as well as home, auto, personal, and small business lending services. The Commercial Banking segment provides financial solutions to private, family owned, and certain public companies. Its products and services include banking and credit products across various industry sectors and municipalities, secured lending and lease products, and treasury management services. The Corporate and Investment Banking segment offers a suite of capital markets, banking, and financial products and services to corporate, commercial real estate, government, and institutional clients. Its products and services comprise corporate banking, investment banking, treasury management, commercial real estate lending and servicing, equity, and fixed income solutions, as well as sales, trading, and research capabilities services. The Wealth and Investment Management segment provides personalized wealth management, brokerage, financial planning, lending, private banking, and trust and fiduciary products and services to affluent, high-net worth, and ultra-high-net worth clients. It also operates through financial advisors. Wells Fargo & Company was founded in 1852 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
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- One of America's "Big Four" banks, akin to JPMorgan Chase or Bank of America.
- A full-service financial institution, similar to Citigroup, providing retail banking, wealth management, and commercial lending.
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- Checking and Savings Accounts: These provide secure deposit services for everyday transactions and interest-bearing savings, respectively.
- Credit Cards: Wells Fargo offers various credit cards providing revolving lines of credit for consumer purchases and cash advances.
- Mortgage Loans: The company provides financing for the purchase or refinancing of residential properties.
- Auto Loans: Wells Fargo offers loans to finance the purchase of new and used vehicles.
- Personal Loans & Lines of Credit: These provide unsecured funds to individuals for various personal needs, repaid in installments or as a revolving line.
- Small Business Banking & Lending: This segment offers tailored deposit accounts, loans, lines of credit, and payment solutions for small businesses.
- Commercial Banking & Lending: Wells Fargo provides comprehensive banking, lending, treasury management, and commercial real estate financing services to mid-market and large corporations.
- Investment Banking Services: This involves advisory for mergers and acquisitions, and capital markets solutions including equity and debt financing for corporate clients.
- Wealth Management & Investment Services: These services include financial planning, brokerage, private banking, and investment advisory for individuals and institutions seeking to grow and manage their assets.
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Wells Fargo (symbol: WFC) primarily sells financial products and services to a broad base of individuals and small businesses. Based on its business segments, here are up to three major categories of customers it serves:
- Individual Consumers: This category encompasses a vast number of retail customers who utilize a wide range of personal banking services, including checking accounts, savings accounts, credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, and other personal lending products. These are everyday individuals and families banking for their personal financial needs.
- Small Businesses: Wells Fargo has a significant focus on serving small and medium-sized businesses. These customers typically use business checking and savings accounts, commercial real estate loans, business credit cards, lines of credit, and treasury management services tailored for smaller enterprises. While technically "companies," they are often grouped separately from large corporations in banking segmentation.
- Affluent and High-Net-Worth Individuals & Families: Through its Wealth & Investment Management segment, Wells Fargo serves individuals, families, and trusts with significant assets. These clients require specialized services such as investment management, financial planning, private banking, trust services, and wealth advisory solutions.
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Charles W. Scharf
Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Charles W. Scharf has been Chief Executive Officer of Wells Fargo & Company since October 2019, and became Chairman of the Board of Directors in October 2025. He has over 30 years of experience in financial services, holding CEO positions at Bank of New York Mellon from 2017 to 2019 and Visa Inc. from 2012 to 2016. Prior to these roles, he was a managing director of One Equity Partners, the private investment arm of JPMorgan Chase & Co., indicating experience with private equity-backed companies. He also served as CEO of Retail Financial Services at JPMorgan Chase and CEO of the retail division of Bank One Corp. Scharf oversaw the integration of Washington Mutual into JPMorgan Chase during the 2008 financial crisis. He has also held several CFO roles at Bank One Corp., Citigroup's Global Corporate and Investment Bank division, and Salomon Smith Barney.
Michael P. Santomassimo
Chief Financial Officer
Michael P. Santomassimo is the Chief Financial Officer of Wells Fargo, responsible for the company's financial management functions. He has over 25 years of experience in banking and finance. Before joining Wells Fargo in 2020, he served as CFO at BNY Mellon from 2018, where he was responsible for financial management functions, regulatory relations, and corporate services. He also spent 11 years at JPMorgan Chase in key finance leadership roles, including CFO for Banking (Investment Banking and Treasury Services) and CFO of Securities Services & U.S. Private Banking businesses. He began his career at Smith Barney. There is no information indicating he founded or sold companies, or has a pattern of managing private equity-backed companies.
Scott E. Powell
Chief Operating Officer
Scott E. Powell has served as Chief Operating Officer of Wells Fargo since December 2019 and is a member of the company's Operating Committee. He has more than three decades of experience in retail banking, risk management, and consumer and auto lending. Prior to Wells Fargo, he was CEO of Santander Holdings USA, Inc., and CEO of Santander Consumer USA Holdings Inc. His career also includes senior roles at JPMorgan Chase, such as Head of Banking and Consumer Lending Operations and CEO of Consumer Banking and Retail Investments, as well as CEO of consumer lending at Bank One and various risk management roles at Citi.
Derek A. Flowers
Chief Risk Officer
Derek A. Flowers is the Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer of Wells Fargo. He was appointed to this role in 2022.AI Analysis | Feedback
The key risks to Wells Fargo's business include ongoing regulatory and compliance issues, vulnerabilities within its Commercial Real Estate (CRE) portfolio, and cybersecurity threats.- Regulatory and Compliance Issues: Wells Fargo has a long history of regulatory problems and scandals, leading to substantial financial penalties, reputational damage, and operational restrictions, including a multi-year asset cap. Although some consent orders have been resolved, the bank continues to invest significant resources in compliance, and deficiencies in areas like anti-money laundering (AML) controls have been noted as recently as September 2024. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) ordered Wells Fargo to pay $3.7 billion in penalties and customer restitution in 2022 for various illegal practices. The Federal Reserve's asset cap, which restricted the bank's growth, was only lifted in Q3 2025, marking a significant turning point from a constrained business model to one focused on growth.
- Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Risks: Wells Fargo faces persistent vulnerabilities in its CRE portfolio, particularly concerning office and retail properties. Macroeconomic headwinds, such as potential tariffs and interest rate fluctuations, threaten to exacerbate inflation and weaken consumer and business spending, which could lead to increased CRE loan loss provisions.
- Cybersecurity Risks: Wells Fargo's leadership identifies cybersecurity as a critical and top-priority risk. CEO Charlie Scharf stated that cyber threats are the "biggest risk" the company focuses on, necessitating significant investment and resources to address their growing complexity.
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Neobanks and challenger banks such as SoFi, Chime, and Revolut are capturing market share, particularly among younger demographics, by offering lower fees, more user-friendly mobile experiences, and faster services in areas like deposits, consumer lending, and payments.
Large technology companies like Apple (e.g., Apple Card, Apple Pay Later) and Amazon (e.g., lending to merchants, co-branded credit cards) are increasingly entering financial services, leveraging their vast customer bases and technological capabilities to offer banking-adjacent products and potentially disintermediate traditional banks from their customers.
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Wells Fargo & Company (symbol: WFC) offers a diversified set of banking, investment, and mortgage products and services across its operating segments: Consumer Banking and Lending, Commercial Banking, Corporate and Investment Banking, and Wealth & Investment Management. The addressable markets for their main products and services primarily in the U.S. are sized as follows:
- Retail/Consumer Banking: The U.S. retail banking market is valued at approximately USD 0.87 trillion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 1.08 trillion by 2030.
- Commercial Banking: The U.S. commercial banking market size is estimated at USD 732.5 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow to USD 915.45 billion by 2030.
- Mortgage Loans: Americans collectively owe approximately USD 12.94 trillion on mortgages as of September 2025. The U.S. home mortgage market size was valued at around USD 180.91 billion in 2023 and is predicted to reach approximately USD 501.67 billion by 2032.
- Auto Loans: The U.S. auto loan market stood at USD 676.20 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach USD 870.78 billion by 2030.
- Wealth Management: The U.S. wealth management market had approximately USD 64.4 trillion in Assets Under Management (AUM) in 2024, with projections to reach USD 87.35 trillion by 2028. Revenues from fee-based advisory relationships in the U.S. wealth management industry are estimated to have grown from around USD 150 billion in 2015 to USD 260 billion in 2024. The U.S. private banking market is valued at USD 59.54 billion in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 94.89 billion by 2030.
- Investment Banking: The U.S. investment banking market is valued at USD 54.74 billion in 2025 and is forecasted to reach USD 66.15 billion by 2030. North America held a significant share of the global investment banking market, generating USD 47.26 billion in revenue in 2023.
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Wells Fargo (WFC) is strategically positioning itself for future revenue growth over the next two to three years by focusing on several key areas, following the significant milestone of the Federal Reserve's asset cap removal. These drivers include expanded balance sheet capacity, growth in investment banking, increased consumer lending and deposits, and continued digital transformation and enhanced customer engagement.
Here are 4 expected drivers of future revenue growth for Wells Fargo:
- Expanded Balance Sheet and Loan Growth Post-Asset Cap Removal: The lifting of the Federal Reserve's asset cap is a pivotal driver, enabling Wells Fargo to significantly grow its balance sheet. This allows the bank to boost deposits, expand its loan portfolio across various segments, and increase its securities holdings. This expansion directly contributes to a rise in net interest income, a primary revenue source for banks, and opens avenues for broader fee-generating activities.
- Growth in Investment Banking Services: Wells Fargo is actively pursuing an increase in its market share within the investment banking sector. The bank plans to enhance its service offerings, broaden its client base, and make targeted investments in key areas such as technology and healthcare. This strategic focus is already yielding results, with significant year-over-year increases in investment banking fees, and the company aspires to become a top five U.S. investment bank.
- Expansion in Consumer Lending and Deposit Gathering: A renewed focus on consumer businesses is expected to drive revenue growth. This includes efforts to expand the credit card portfolio, with new accounts showing robust growth, and to increase net checking accounts. The bank is also re-engaging in deposit growth through enhanced marketing and digital onboarding initiatives. Growth in auto loan originations further contributes to this segment's revenue.
- Digital Transformation and Enhanced Customer Engagement: Wells Fargo is investing heavily in its digital infrastructure to improve customer experiences and streamline operations. This involves modernizing its branch network, scaling marketing efforts, and promoting mobile banking, which has shown increased customer engagement. These digital enhancements and customer-centric strategies are designed to attract new customers and deepen relationships with existing ones, leading to growth in customer accounts and increased utilization of banking services.
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Share Repurchases
- Wells Fargo repurchased $8.7 billion of common stock in 2022.
- In 2023, the company repurchased $5.0 billion of common stock.
- In July 2024, Wells Fargo's Board of Directors authorized a new common stock repurchase program for up to $30.0 billion.
Share Issuance
- Share issuances over the past 3-5 years have been primarily related to employee stock plans and compensation, without significant public offerings for capital raising purposes.
Outbound Investments
- Wells Fargo has made strategic investments, particularly in financial technology companies, but no major acquisitions or large-scale strategic investments materially impacting overall capital allocation were identified in the specified timeframe.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures were approximately $2.6 billion in 2021, $3.0 billion in 2022, and $3.4 billion in 2023.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures has been on technology modernization, digital transformation initiatives, and optimizing the company's real estate footprint.
- For 2024, Wells Fargo projected capital expenditures to be in a similar range to 2023, continuing investments in technology.
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| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01302026 | FDS | FactSet Research Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -19.1% | -19.1% | -23.8% |
| 01302026 | PFSI | PennyMac Financial Services | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.6% | -7.6% | -9.2% |
| 01232026 | FIS | Fidelity National Information Services | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -22.6% | -22.6% | -22.6% |
| 01022026 | MORN | Morningstar | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -23.9% | -23.9% | -26.8% |
| 01022026 | ABR | Arbor Realty Trust | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -2.9% | -2.9% | -6.7% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 142.66 |
| Mkt Cap | 280.9 |
| Rev LTM | 83,888 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | -10,482 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -27,669 |
| CFO LTM | -8,948 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -24,915 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.5% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -11.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -35.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -13.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -38.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 280.9 |
| P/S | 3.9 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 14.4 |
| P/CFO | -4.3 |
| Total Yield | 6.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -10.1% |
| D/E | 1.1 |
| Net D/E | -0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.4% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.3% |
| 6M Rtn | 17.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 20.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 115.3% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -0.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 2.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 11.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 10.7% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 49.0% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate | 641,455 | 601,218 | 721,335 | 728,667 | 608,712 |
| Corporate and Investment Banking | 557,642 | 550,177 | 546,549 | 508,518 | 538,383 |
| Consumer Banking and Lending | 376,151 | 387,710 | 378,620 | 420,995 | 448,971 |
| Commercial Banking | 245,159 | 250,198 | 210,810 | 206,953 | 244,984 |
| Wealth and Investment Management | 88,854 | 91,717 | 90,754 | 87,778 | 86,505 |
| Reconciling Items | 0 | 0 | |||
| Total | 1,909,261 | 1,881,020 | 1,948,068 | 1,952,911 | 1,927,555 |
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $87.40 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 278.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/01/1972 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -8.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $91.28 | $82.42 |
| DMA Trend | up | up |
| Distance from DMA | -4.2% | 6.0% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.8% | 29.6% |
| Downside Capture | 157.22 | 112.33 |
| Upside Capture | 153.65 | 109.66 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 51.0% | 66.8% |
WFC Betas & Captures as of 1/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.19 | 1.06 | 0.93 | 0.91 | 1.00 | 1.01 |
| Up Beta | 0.32 | -0.18 | 0.18 | 0.71 | 0.73 | 0.84 |
| Down Beta | 1.17 | 0.65 | 0.79 | 1.02 | 1.33 | 1.17 |
| Up Capture | 91% | 180% | 133% | 101% | 109% | 122% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 34 | 71 | 142 | 430 |
| Stock +ve Days | 9 | 22 | 35 | 70 | 134 | 396 |
| Down Capture | 204% | 136% | 112% | 84% | 103% | 100% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 9 | 19 | 27 | 54 | 109 | 321 |
| Stock -ve Days | 11 | 19 | 26 | 55 | 116 | 352 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WFC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WFC | 13.3% | 29.5% | 0.43 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 2.0% | 19.4% | -0.02 | 80.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.0% | 19.4% | 0.51 | 66.8% |
| Gold (GLD) | 67.2% | 25.5% | 1.99 | 1.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 5.2% | 16.8% | 0.13 | 23.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.8% | 16.6% | 0.28 | 48.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -28.8% | 44.9% | -0.62 | 23.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WFC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WFC | 24.2% | 30.3% | 0.75 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 12.6% | 18.7% | 0.55 | 80.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.3% | 17.0% | 0.62 | 56.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.3% | 17.1% | 1.02 | -0.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.2% | 18.9% | 0.42 | 16.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.3% | 18.8% | 0.19 | 40.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 8.2% | 57.2% | 0.36 | 21.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with WFC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WFC | 9.5% | 32.1% | 0.36 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLF) | 14.2% | 22.2% | 0.59 | 85.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.8% | 17.9% | 0.76 | 64.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 14.8% | 15.6% | 0.79 | -6.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.0% | 17.6% | 0.37 | 24.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 6.8% | 20.7% | 0.29 | 51.0% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.5% | 66.7% | 1.08 | 17.8% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 1/14/2026 | -4.6% | -8.0% | -7.3% |
| 10/14/2025 | 7.1% | 9.0% | 9.8% |
| 7/15/2025 | -5.5% | -3.8% | -4.2% |
| 4/11/2025 | -1.0% | 2.5% | 19.3% |
| 1/15/2025 | 6.7% | 8.9% | 11.3% |
| 10/11/2024 | 5.6% | 11.5% | 22.0% |
| 7/12/2024 | -6.0% | -1.5% | -11.6% |
| 4/12/2024 | -0.4% | 3.6% | 9.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 14 | 17 |
| # Negative | 14 | 10 | 7 |
| Median Positive | 4.8% | 6.0% | 10.3% |
| Median Negative | -4.2% | -4.0% | -7.3% |
| Max Positive | 7.1% | 11.7% | 22.0% |
| Max Negative | -7.8% | -11.9% | -22.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2025 | 10/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 08/05/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/25/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/20/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/02/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/21/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/31/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/01/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/22/2022 | 10-K |
WFC Trade Sentinel
Core Investment Debate
Turnaround Execution vs. Cyclical Credit Risk
BULL VIEW
The removal of the Fed's asset cap unleashes powerful operating leverage, driving loan growth (>5% YoY) and efficiency gains that will overshadow manageable CRE provisions.
CORE TENSION
Can company-specific operational improvements (post-asset cap growth) overcome the powerful macro headwind of a deteriorating Commercial Real Estate (CRE) market?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BULLISH
The 'Market-Rewarded KPIs' module shows Average Loans growth accelerating to +5.0% YoY and Net Interest Income growth accelerating to +4.5% YoY in Q4 2025, validating the Bull Stance.
BEAR VIEW
A CRE downturn will force credit provisions to spike above $1.5B/quarter, erasing turnaround benefits and causing a P/E multiple compression back to historical lows.
Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
Late April 2026 | Q1 2026 Earnings Report Watch: Provision for Credit Losses, specifically guidance on CRE Net Charge-Offs. Threshold: < $1.2 Billion. |
Q1-Q2 2026 | Basel III 'Endgame' Re-Proposal Details Released Watch: Regulatory language regarding Risk-Weighted Asset (RWA) calculations and required capital levels for large banks. |
Anytime | Major Third-Party Vendor Security Incident Watch: News of a data breach at a critical financial software provider or core processor used by WFC. |
Key Events in Last 6 Months
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
Aug 12, 2025 | Strategic Update on Growth Initiatives Details: Management commentary highlighted strong growth in new credit card accounts (+21%) and auto lending (+19%), signaling successful execution of post-asset cap strategy. | Rose significantly by 2.4% $76.80 -> $78.67 |
Sep 9, 2025 | Barclays Global Financial Services Conference Details: CFO Mike Santomassimo presented, highlighting the bank's progress post-asset cap removal and strategic priorities, leading to a positive stock reaction. | Modest 2.0% gain $78.34 -> $79.94 |
Oct 14, 2025 | Q3 2025 Earnings Release Details: The bank reported strong results, including a 25% increase in investment banking fees and significant share repurchases, boosting investor confidence. | Surged +7.1% $78.12 -> $83.70 |
Nov 6, 2025 | BancAnalysts Association of Boston Conference Details: CFO Mike Santomassimo provided insights into the bank's financial strategy. The stock saw a minor pullback following the event. | Slight -1.0% pullback $86.07 -> $85.17 |
Dec 9, 2025 | Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference Details: CEO Charlie Scharf presented, likely providing an update on strategic initiatives and capital return plans. The market reaction was muted. | Slight -1.3% pullback $89.61 -> $88.45 |
Jan 14, 2026 | Q4 2025 Earnings Release Details: Despite beating EPS forecasts, stock fell after total revenue slightly missed analyst expectations, signaling high market focus on top-line growth. Provisions for credit losses rose. | Fell notably by -4.6% $93.10 -> $88.81 |
Risk Management
Position Sizing
4%-6%
NORMAL
Stock has moderate, compressing volatility. While the Bullish sentiment is driven by a strong turnaround catalyst, the Fair valuation and Contested moat prevent a maximum-risk position.
Diversification Alternatives
JPM
INDUSTRYJPM offers exposure to the same sector with a superior efficiency ratio (~56% vs WFC's 64%), a less-contested competitive moat, and no single-stock turnaround execution risk.
Core Thesis: A best-in-class, diversified financial services leader with consistent execution and a stronger, more profitable business model than Wells Fargo.
MS
INDUSTRYMorgan Stanley's business is heavily weighted toward wealth management, making it less exposed to the credit cycle and CRE risks that define the Wells Fargo bear case.
Core Thesis: A premium, fee-driven franchise in wealth and investment management that offers a different, more capital-light risk profile than a traditional balance-sheet-heavy bank.
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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