Wells Fargo (WFC)
Market Price (12/3/2025): $86.5 | Market Cap: $275.3 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Diversified Banks
Wells Fargo (WFC)
Market Price (12/3/2025): $86.5Market Cap: $275.3 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Diversified Banks
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.7% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.6%, Dist 3Y High is -0.6% | Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -62% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.9%, Dividend Yield is 2.0%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.7% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -62% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Fintech & Digital Payments, AI in Financial Services, and Sustainable Finance. Themes include Online Banking & Lending, Show more. |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.6%, Dist 3Y High is -0.6% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WFC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Wells Fargo (WFC) experienced positive movement in its stock price during the approximate period from August 31, 2025, to December 3, 2025, driven by several key factors:
1. Strong Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Exceeding Expectations.
Wells Fargo reported robust financial results for the third quarter of 2025 on October 14, 2025, surpassing analyst estimates for both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue. The company announced a non-GAAP EPS of $1.73, comfortably exceeding the analyst estimate of $1.56. Additionally, reported revenue for the quarter was $21.44 billion, slightly above the estimated $21.37 billion, indicating strong operational performance.
2. Removal of the Regulatory Asset Cap.
A significant driver for the stock's positive performance was the lifting of the asset cap that had been imposed on Wells Fargo by regulators for over seven years. The Q3 2025 earnings release on October 14, 2025, explicitly mentioned the bank operating in a "post-asset cap environment." This removal is a pivotal development, as it allows the bank to outline ambitions for growth and improved returns, which was a long-awaited event by the market.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WFC Return | -42% | 61% | -12% | 23% | 46% | 26% | 87% |
| Peers Return | -3% | 30% | -18% | 15% | 35% | 30% | 108% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WFC Win Rate | 25% | 67% | 50% | 67% | 58% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 55% | 62% | 42% | 50% | 62% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WFC Max Drawdown | -59% | -2% | -21% | -12% | -6% | -13% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -49% | -4% | -30% | -18% | -6% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: JPM, BAC, MS, C, USB. See WFC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/2/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WFC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -38.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 392 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -60.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 154.5% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 435 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.2% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2144 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -79.6% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 390.1% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1534 days | 1480 days |
Compare to JPM, BAC, MS, C, USB
In The Past
Wells Fargo's stock fell -38.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/9/2022. A -38.7% loss requires a 63.0% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WFC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.6% | 2.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 8.1% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.1% | 0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.1% | -6.1% | -11.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11212025 | WU | Western Union | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.6% | 2.6% | -0.4% |
| 11212025 | COIN | Coinbase Global | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 8.1% | 8.1% | 0.0% |
| 11142025 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.4% | -0.4% | -7.5% |
| 11142025 | V | Visa | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 0.1% | 0.1% | -2.7% |
| 11072025 | WD | Walker & Dunlop | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.1% | -6.1% | -11.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Wells Fargo
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 94.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 270.2 |
| Rev LTM | 83,888 |
| Op Inc LTM | - |
| FCF LTM | -10,482 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -7,328 |
| CFO LTM | -8,948 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -5,689 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 5.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 9.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | - |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | - |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | - |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -11.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -12.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -13.9% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -12.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 270.2 |
| P/S | 3.4 |
| P/EBIT | - |
| P/E | 12.8 |
| P/CFO | -5.0 |
| Total Yield | 7.8% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -0.3% |
| D/E | 1.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.7 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 0.9% |
| 3M Rtn | 5.8% |
| 6M Rtn | 18.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.4% |
| 3Y Rtn | 103.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 1.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 1.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 4.2% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 6.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 31.7% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate | 641,455 | 601,218 | 721,335 | 728,667 | 608,712 |
| Corporate and Investment Banking | 557,642 | 550,177 | 546,549 | 508,518 | 538,383 |
| Consumer Banking and Lending | 376,151 | 387,710 | 378,620 | 420,995 | 448,971 |
| Commercial Banking | 245,159 | 250,198 | 210,810 | 206,953 | 244,984 |
| Wealth and Investment Management | 88,854 | 91,717 | 90,754 | 87,778 | 86,505 |
| Reconciling Items | 0 | 0 | |||
| Total | 1,909,261 | 1,881,020 | 1,948,068 | 1,952,911 | 1,927,555 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8052025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8012024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2202024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5022023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2212023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10312022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8012022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5032022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2222022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
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