Western Digital (WDC)
Market Price (11/15/2025): $157.62 | Market Cap: $55.2 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Western Digital (WDC)
Market Price (11/15/2025): $157.62Market Cap: $55.2 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 217%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 235% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 175% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Hybrid Cloud Solutions, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Hybrid Cloud Solutions, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 217%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 235% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 175% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
WDC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Western Digital's (WDC) stock movement of 101% from July 31, 2025, to November 15, 2025:
1. Robust Financial Performance in Fiscal Year 2025 and Strong Outlook.
Western Digital reported strong fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on July 30, 2025, with fiscal year 2025 revenue up 51% year over year. The company exceeded revenue and EPS estimates for Q4 2025 and provided a positive outlook for fiscal first quarter 2026, including an expected 22% year-over-year revenue increase at the midpoint. These results were coupled with the initiation of a cash dividend and the authorization of a $2.0 billion share repurchase program, signaling confidence in the company's financial health.
2. Surging Demand Driven by Artificial Intelligence.
A significant driver for the stock's increase was the escalating demand for high-capacity storage solutions fueled by the artificial intelligence (AI) boom and growth in cloud-based services. Western Digital's strategic focus on high-capacity drives and storage solutions for AI-driven data workloads positioned it as a key beneficiary in this rapidly expanding market.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WDC Return | -11% | 18% | -52% | 66% | 14% | 254% | 239% |
| Peers Return | 68% | 62% | -46% | 122% | 47% | 81% | 769% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 15% | 109% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WDC Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 90% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 56% | 38% | 58% | 54% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WDC Max Drawdown | -54% | -11% | -54% | -0% | -6% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -13% | -51% | -2% | -8% | -30% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NVDA, AMD, MU, STX, NTAP. See WDC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/14/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WDC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 155.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 518 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 143.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 348 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -67.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 203.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2461 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 302.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 391 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NVDA, AMD, MU, STX, NTAP
In The Past
Western Digital's stock fell -60.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/4/2021. A -60.9% loss requires a 155.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WDC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.7% | -10.7% | -10.7% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.7% | -2.7% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | WDC | Western Digital | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.7% | 40.2% | -7.2% |
| 03312019 | WDC | Western Digital | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.3% | -6.9% | -37.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -10.7% | -10.7% | -10.7% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.0% | -2.0% | -3.5% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.7% | -2.7% | -3.9% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.3% | -1.3% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| 09302022 | WDC | Western Digital | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.7% | 40.2% | -7.2% |
| 03312019 | WDC | Western Digital | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.3% | -6.9% | -37.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Western Digital
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 218.49 |
| Mkt Cap | 166.2 |
| Rev LTM | 22,653 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,902 |
| FCF LTM | 1,663 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,041 |
| CFO LTM | 4,123 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,512 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 39.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 32.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 166.2 |
| P/S | 6.8 |
| P/EBIT | 28.8 |
| P/E | 35.1 |
| P/CFO | 42.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 11.7% |
| 3M Rtn | 53.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 126.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 113.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 355.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 8.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 47.3% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 113.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 92.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 326.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 8.7% | 18.4% | |
| 7/30/2025 | 10.2% | 3.3% | 15.0% |
| 4/30/2025 | 8.0% | 9.0% | 29.4% |
| 1/29/2025 | 4.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% |
| 10/24/2024 | 4.7% | -1.5% | 0.2% |
| 7/31/2024 | -9.7% | -16.1% | -6.0% |
| 4/25/2024 | 2.8% | 0.4% | 7.7% |
| 1/25/2024 | -3.5% | -4.9% | -5.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 5.4% | 15.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.9% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 18.4% | 37.2% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -16.1% | -16.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 10/3/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-K 6/27/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/28/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1312025 | 10-Q 12/27/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/27/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8202024 | 10-K 6/28/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/29/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2122024 | 10-Q 12/29/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/29/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8222023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-Q 12/30/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8252022 | 10-K 7/1/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 4/1/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
