Western Digital (WDC)
Market Price (11/30/2025): $163.99 | Market Cap: $57.4 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Western Digital (WDC)
Market Price (11/30/2025): $163.99Market Cap: $57.4 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% | Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 207%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 190% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% | Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 175% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Hybrid Cloud Solutions, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 39% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, Hybrid Cloud Solutions, Show more. |
| Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 207%, 12M Rtn12 month market price return is 190% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 175% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
WDC Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points explaining Western Digital's stock movement from July 31, 2025, to November 30, 2025:
1. Strong Financial Performance in Fiscal Q4 2025 and Q1 2026: Western Digital reported robust financial results, with fiscal fourth quarter 2025 revenue increasing 30% year-over-year to $2.61 billion and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.66, surpassing analyst expectations. This strong performance continued into fiscal first quarter 2026, with revenue of $2.82 billion, up 27% year-over-year, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $1.78, again exceeding estimates.
2. Surging Demand for High-Capacity Storage Driven by Cloud and AI: A significant driver of revenue growth was the escalating demand for data storage solutions, particularly from the cloud computing sector and advancements in artificial intelligence. Western Digital capitalized on this trend with strong shipments of high-capacity drives like its 26TB CMR and 32TB UltraSMR products.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| WDC Return | -11% | 18% | -52% | 66% | 14% | 255% | 240% |
| Peers Return | 57% | 67% | -47% | 112% | 38% | 101% | 713% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| WDC Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 42% | 58% | 67% | 90% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 60% | 58% | 37% | 62% | 55% | 68% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| WDC Max Drawdown | -54% | -11% | -54% | -0% | -6% | -32% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -28% | -11% | -52% | -2% | -8% | -29% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: NVDA, AMD, MU, STX, NTAP. See WDC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | WDC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -60.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 155.4% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 518 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -58.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 143.0% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 348 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -67.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 203.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2461 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -75.2% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 302.6% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 391 days | 1480 days |
Compare to NVDA, AMD, MU, STX, NTAP
In The Past
Western Digital's stock fell -60.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/4/2021. A -60.9% loss requires a 155.4% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to WDC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.0% | -7.0% | -15.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.9% | -0.9% | -4.0% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.7% | -6.7% | -8.2% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.4% | 2.4% | -5.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.3% | 4.3% | -8.9% |
| 09302022 | WDC | Western Digital | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.7% | 40.2% | -7.2% |
| 03312019 | WDC | Western Digital | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.3% | -6.9% | -37.5% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.0% | -7.0% | -15.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.9% | -0.9% | -4.0% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.7% | -6.7% | -8.2% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.4% | 2.4% | -5.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.3% | 4.3% | -8.9% |
| 09302022 | WDC | Western Digital | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 15.7% | 40.2% | -7.2% |
| 03312019 | WDC | Western Digital | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 27.3% | -6.9% | -37.5% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Western Digital
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 197.25 |
| Mkt Cap | 158.4 |
| Rev LTM | 22,653 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,902 |
| FCF LTM | 1,663 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,041 |
| CFO LTM | 4,123 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,512 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 39.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 32.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.5% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 7.2% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 23.9% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 158.4 |
| P/S | 5.3 |
| P/EBIT | 23.6 |
| P/E | 28.5 |
| P/CFO | 33.0 |
| Total Yield | 4.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 47.4% |
| 6M Rtn | 113.2% |
| 12M Rtn | 96.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 387.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 0.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 38.0% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 95.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 75.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 310.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/30/2025 | 8.7% | 18.4% | |
| 7/30/2025 | 10.2% | 3.3% | 15.0% |
| 4/30/2025 | 8.0% | 9.0% | 29.4% |
| 1/29/2025 | 4.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% |
| 10/24/2024 | 4.7% | -1.5% | 0.2% |
| 7/31/2024 | -9.7% | -16.1% | -6.0% |
| 4/25/2024 | 2.8% | 0.4% | 7.7% |
| 1/25/2024 | -3.5% | -4.9% | -5.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 4.7% | 5.4% | 15.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -2.9% | -6.0% |
| Max Positive | 10.2% | 18.4% | 37.2% |
| Max Negative | -12.2% | -16.1% | -16.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 10-Q 10/3/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8142025 | 10-K 6/27/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5022025 | 10-Q 3/28/2025 |
| 12312024 | 1312025 | 10-Q 12/27/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/27/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8202024 | 10-K 6/28/2024 |
| 3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/29/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2122024 | 10-Q 12/29/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11072023 | 10-Q 9/29/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8222023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5102023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-Q 12/30/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8252022 | 10-K 7/1/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 4/1/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2032022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
