Vale (VALE)
Market Price (10/16/2025): $11.18 | Market Cap: $47.7 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Vale (VALE)
Market Price (10/16/2025): $11.18Market Cap: $47.7 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.1% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 8.1 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% | |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 8.1 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -1.1% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% |
Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
VALE Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
VALE Return | 32% | -2% | 32% | 1% | -39% | 35% | 38% |
Peers Return | 43% | 11% | -5% | 16% | -14% | 55% | 134% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
VALE Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 17% | 67% | |
Peers Win Rate | 48% | 42% | 40% | 48% | 32% | 84% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
VALE Max Drawdown | -50% | -21% | -8% | -24% | -40% | -4% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -8% | -25% | -11% | -21% | -12% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RIO, SCCO, NEM, CLF, ALM. See VALE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/15/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | VALE | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -50.9% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 103.5% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -51.7% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -35.5% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 55.0% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 466 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -80.0% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 399.0% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Vale's stock fell -50.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/28/2021. A -50.9% loss requires a 103.5% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Title | Topic | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
DASHBOARDS | |||
VALE Dip Buy Analysis | |||
Vale (VALE) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
Vale Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -38.9% in 2024 and -6.4% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
Should You Buy Vale Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
Vale (VALE) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
Vale (VALE) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
Vale (VALE) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
Vale (VALE) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
VALE (VALE) Stock Has 44% Chance Of Rise In The Next One Month | |||
ARTICLES | |||
Buy VALE Stock? | September 18th, 2025 | ||
Can Vale Stock Double? | July 16th, 2025 | ||
What’s Happening With VALE Stock? | May 19th, 2025 | ||
Time To Buy Vale Stock? | March 25th, 2025 | ||
What’s Behind the 50% Fall in VALE Stock? | December 6th, 2024 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VALE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.5% | -3.5% | -7.8% |
09302025 | GPK | Graphic Packaging | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.7% | -11.7% | -11.7% |
09302025 | FCX | Freeport-McMoRan | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.7% | 6.7% | -0.9% |
07312025 | KWR | Quaker Houghton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.8% | 15.8% | 0.0% |
06302025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -18.1% | -18.1% | -19.6% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.5% | -3.5% | -7.8% |
09302025 | GPK | Graphic Packaging | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.7% | -11.7% | -11.7% |
09302025 | FCX | Freeport-McMoRan | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.7% | 6.7% | -0.9% |
07312025 | KWR | Quaker Houghton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.8% | 15.8% | 0.0% |
06302025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -18.1% | -18.1% | -19.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Vale
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 41.41 |
Mkt Cap | 75.8 |
Rev LTM | 18,457 |
Op Inc LTM | 5,900 |
FCF LTM | 1,957 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 2,094 |
CFO LTM | 4,483 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 3,566 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 9.9% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
Rev Chg Q | -3.1% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | -0.8% |
Op Mgn LTM | 27.3% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 21.1% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -1.1% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 22.1% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 26.3% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 5.3% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 11.0% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 75.8 |
P/S | 3.2 |
P/EBIT | 9.0 |
P/E | 12.8 |
P/CFO | 9.0 |
Total Yield | 6.0% |
Dividend Yield | 0.5% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.5% |
D/E | 0.3 |
Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 17.6% |
3M Rtn | 45.1% |
6M Rtn | 55.5% |
12M Rtn | 12.3% |
3Y Rtn | 54.9% |
1M Excs Rtn | 17.8% |
3M Excs Rtn | 37.2% |
6M Excs Rtn | 30.7% |
12M Excs Rtn | -5.4% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -39.9% |
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Iron Ore Solutions | 34,079 | 34,916 | 45,925 | 31,916 | 30,005 |
Energy Transition Metals | 7,569 | 8,398 | 7,966 | 6,827 | 5,858 |
Other | 136 | 525 | 611 | 802 | 686 |
Brumadinho event and de-characterization of dams | 0 | ||||
Total | 41,784 | 43,839 | 54,502 | 39,545 | 36,549 |
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Iron Ore Solutions | 18,814 | 20,097 | 31,480 | 18,924 | 14,934 |
Energy Transition Metals | 1,963 | 2,493 | 3,193 | 1,633 | 1,220 |
Impairment and gains (losses) on disposal of non-current assets, net and other | -482 | 773 | -426 | ||
EBITDA from associates and joint ventures | -844 | -774 | |||
Other | -2,176 | -2,210 | -3,330 | -7,734 | -1,123 |
Depreciation, depletion and amortization | -3,070 | -3,171 | -3,034 | ||
Dividends received and interest from associates and joint ventures | -190 | -353 | |||
Brumadinho event and de-characterization of dams | -7,402 | ||||
Impairment and disposal of non-current assets | -3,383 | ||||
Total | 14,205 | 17,208 | 27,693 | 12,823 | 3,893 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8012025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 4252025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 3282025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 10252024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 7262024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 6252024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 4192024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 10272023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 7282023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 4272023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 4132023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 10282022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 7282022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 4272022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 4142022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 10292021 | 6-K 9/30/2021 |
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