Tearsheet

Vale (VALE)


Market Price (10/16/2025): $11.18 | Market Cap: $47.7 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

Vale (VALE)


Market Price (10/16/2025): $11.18
Market Cap: $47.7 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

Investment Highlights


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.1%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 8.1 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 22%, CFO LTM is 8.1 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -1.1%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -51%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -13%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -7.8%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -11%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

VALE Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VALE Return32%-2%32%1%-39%35%38%
Peers Return43%11%-5%16%-14%55%134%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VALE Win Rate42%50%58%58%17%67% 
Peers Win Rate48%42%40%48%32%84% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VALE Max Drawdown-50%-21%-8%-24%-40%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-8%-25%-11%-21%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RIO, SCCO, NEM, CLF, ALM. See VALE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/15/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventVALES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-50.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven103.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-51.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven107.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven246 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven466 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven399.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days


How Low Can It Go?

Vale's stock fell -50.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/28/2021. A -50.9% loss requires a 103.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

Interactive Breakdown

Vale Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Vale (VALE)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VALE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.5%-3.5%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.7%-11.7%-11.7%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.7%6.7%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.8%15.8%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-18.1%-18.1%-19.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.5%-3.5%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.7%-11.7%-11.7%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.7%6.7%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.8%15.8%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-18.1%-18.1%-19.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Vale

Financials

VALERIOSCCONEMCLFALMMedian
NameVale Rio TintoSouthern.Newmont Clevelan.Almonty . 
Mkt Price11.1768.86131.9093.5813.959.6941.41
Mkt Cap47.7-104.5103.96.9-75.8
Rev LTM36,600-11,95620,58418,4572818,457
Op Inc LTM9,986-5,9008,041-1,588-205,900
FCF LTM1,957-3,3525,322-1,482-551,957
FCF 3Y Avg4,519-2,5342,094337-422,094
CFO LTM8,104-4,4838,574-862-204,483
CFO 3Y Avg10,455-3,5665,0081,030-133,566

Growth & Margins

VALERIOSCCONEMCLFALMMedian
NameVale Rio TintoSouthern.Newmont Clevelan.Almonty . 
Rev Chg LTM-13.0%-23.2%38.4%-12.1%9.9%9.9%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-7.8%-3.3%20.6%-7.9%4.6%3.3%
Rev Chg Q-11.2%-20.1%20.8%-3.1%-9.4%-3.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.0%-4.6%4.7%-0.8%-2.6%-0.8%
Op Mgn LTM27.3%-49.4%39.1%-8.6%-71.3%27.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg32.4%-44.6%21.1%-1.3%-42.8%21.1%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.1%-0.8%3.6%-2.3%-39.7%-1.1%
CFO/Rev LTM22.1%-37.5%41.7%-4.7%-69.9%22.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg26.3%-33.4%30.3%4.6%-50.4%26.3%
FCF/Rev LTM5.3%-28.0%25.9%-8.0%-193.7%5.3%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg11.2%-23.7%11.0%1.2%-160.1%11.0%

Valuation

VALERIOSCCONEMCLFALMMedian
NameVale Rio TintoSouthern.Newmont Clevelan.Almonty . 
Mkt Cap47.7-104.5103.96.9-75.8
P/S1.3-8.75.00.4-3.2
P/EBIT6.4-17.311.5-4.3-9.0
P/E9.1-29.116.5-4.1-12.8
P/CFO5.9-23.312.1-8.0-9.0
Total Yield11.0%-4.9%7.1%-24.1%-6.0%
Dividend Yield0.0%-1.5%1.1%0.0%-0.5%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.9%-3.5%3.5%-2.5%-3.5%
D/E0.4-0.10.11.1-0.3
Net D/E0.3-0.00.01.1-0.2

Returns

VALERIOSCCONEMCLFALMMedian
NameVale Rio TintoSouthern.Newmont Clevelan.Almonty . 
1M Rtn3.1%8.1%20.0%17.9%17.3%101.5%17.6%
3M Rtn18.1%18.1%37.6%60.6%52.6%99.0%45.1%
6M Rtn28.3%23.4%55.5%68.6%94.3%-55.5%
12M Rtn12.3%10.0%21.8%71.4%8.3%-12.3%
3Y Rtn9.3%54.9%215.3%151.3%-3.5%-54.9%
1M Excs Rtn1.4%7.6%20.6%17.5%18.1%98.0%17.8%
3M Excs Rtn11.8%11.6%31.9%56.0%42.6%107.5%37.2%
6M Excs Rtn2.9%-0.4%30.7%49.2%71.2%-30.7%
12M Excs Rtn-5.4%-6.0%0.8%61.1%-8.6%--5.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-83.3%-39.9%127.7%57.5%-95.2%--39.9%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Iron Ore Solutions34,07934,91645,92531,91630,005
Energy Transition Metals7,5698,3987,9666,8275,858
Other136525611802686
Brumadinho event and de-characterization of dams    0
Total41,78443,83954,50239,54536,549


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Iron Ore Solutions18,81420,09731,48018,92414,934
Energy Transition Metals1,9632,4933,1931,6331,220
Impairment and gains (losses) on disposal of non-current assets, net and other-482773-426  
EBITDA from associates and joint ventures-844-774   
Other-2,176-2,210-3,330-7,734-1,123
Depreciation, depletion and amortization-3,070-3,171-3,034  
Dividends received and interest from associates and joint ventures  -190 -353
Brumadinho event and de-characterization of dams    -7,402
Impairment and disposal of non-current assets    -3,383
Total14,20517,20827,69312,8233,893


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity56,195,408
Short Interest: % Change Since 9152025-14.0%
Average Daily Volume32,283,975
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.74
Basic Shares Quantity4,268,779,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.3%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
630202580120256-K 6/30/2025
331202542520256-K 3/31/2025
12312024328202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024102520246-K 9/30/2024
630202472620246-K 6/30/2024
331202462520246-K 3/31/2024
12312023419202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023102720236-K 9/30/2023
630202372820236-K 6/30/2023
331202342720236-K 3/31/2023
12312022413202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022102820226-K 9/30/2022
630202272820226-K 6/30/2022
331202242720226-K 3/31/2022
12312021414202220-F 12/31/2021
9302021102920216-K 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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