Vale (VALE)
Market Price (11/7/2025): $12.15 | Market Cap: $51.9 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Vale (VALE)
Market Price (11/7/2025): $12.15Market Cap: $51.9 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Diversified Metals & Mining
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 5.5% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.6% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.8% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 9.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 5.5% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 9.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 30% |
| Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -0.6% |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58% |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.8% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
VALE Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| VALE Return | 32% | -2% | 32% | 1% | -39% | 48% | 58% |
| Peers Return | 43% | 11% | -5% | 16% | -14% | 42% | 115% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 14% | 108% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| VALE Win Rate | 42% | 50% | 58% | 58% | 17% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 48% | 42% | 40% | 48% | 32% | 84% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| VALE Max Drawdown | -50% | -21% | -8% | -24% | -40% | -4% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -30% | -8% | -25% | -11% | -21% | -12% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RIO, SCCO, NEM, CLF, ALM. See VALE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/6/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | VALE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -50.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 103.5% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -51.7% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 107.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 246 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.0% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 466 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -80.0% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 399.0% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 1480 days |
Compare to RIO, SCCO, NEM, CLF, ALM
In The Past
Vale's stock fell -50.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/28/2021. A -50.9% loss requires a 103.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| With Vale Stock Climbed 10% In A Month, How Confident Are You? | Return | ||
| VALE Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Vale (VALE) Valuation Ratios Comparison | Financials | ||
| Vale Total Shareholder Return (TSR): -38.9% in 2024 and -6.4% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| Should You Buy Vale Stock? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Vale (VALE) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Vale (VALE) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Vale (VALE) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| Vale (VALE) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
| Fundamental Metrics: ... | |||
| ARTICLES | |||
| Buy VALE Stock? | September 18th, 2025 | ||
| Can Vale Stock Double? | July 16th, 2025 | ||
| What’s Happening With VALE Stock? | May 19th, 2025 | ||
| Time To Buy Vale Stock? | March 25th, 2025 | ||
| What’s Behind the 50% Fall in VALE Stock? | December 6th, 2024 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to VALE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -2.5% |
| 10312025 | SLGN | Silgan | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.1% | -1.1% | -1.1% |
| 10242025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.6% | -12.6% | -12.6% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.0% | -1.0% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -7.0% | -7.0% | -7.3% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ATR | AptarGroup | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.1% | 0.1% | -2.5% |
| 10312025 | SLGN | Silgan | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.1% | -1.1% | -1.1% |
| 10242025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.6% | -12.6% | -12.6% |
| 10242025 | NEM | Newmont | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -1.0% | -1.0% | -5.7% |
| 10242025 | RGLD | Royal Gold | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -7.0% | -7.0% | -7.3% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Vale
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 40.75 |
| Mkt Cap | 52.2 |
| Rev LTM | 18,622 |
| Op Inc LTM | 6,199 |
| FCF LTM | 2,871 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,636 |
| CFO LTM | 4,618 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 4,112 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 7.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 29.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 23.9% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 24.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 7.7% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 52.2 |
| P/S | 4.2 |
| P/EBIT | 7.2 |
| P/E | 9.5 |
| P/CFO | 5.8 |
| Total Yield | 5.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -0.3% |
| 3M Rtn | 21.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 41.1% |
| 12M Rtn | 22.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 43.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 14.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 22.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 5.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -22.0% |
Segment Financials
Assets by Segment
| $ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Solutions | 39,725 | ||||
| Energy Transition Metals | 18,341 | ||||
| Deferred income taxes | 9,565 | ||||
| Inventories | 4,684 | ||||
| Accounts receivable | 4,197 | ||||
| Other | 3,833 | ||||
| Cash and cash equivalents | 3,609 | ||||
| Recoverable taxes | 2,274 | ||||
| Others | 1,701 | ||||
| Judicial deposits | 1,409 | ||||
| Other financial assets | 864 | ||||
| Short-term investments | 51 | ||||
| Total | 90,253 |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10312025 | 6-K 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8012025 | 6-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4252025 | 6-K 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 3282025 | 20-F 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10252024 | 6-K 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7262024 | 6-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 6252024 | 6-K 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 4192024 | 20-F 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10272023 | 6-K 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 7282023 | 6-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 4272023 | 6-K 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 4132023 | 20-F 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 10282022 | 6-K 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 7282022 | 6-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 4272022 | 6-K 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 4142022 | 20-F 12/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
