Tearsheet

Vale (VALE)


Market Price (11/7/2025): $12.15 | Market Cap: $51.9 Bil
Sector: Materials | Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

Vale (VALE)


Market Price (11/7/2025): $12.15
Market Cap: $51.9 Bil
Sector: Materials
Industry: Diversified Metals & Mining

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 5.5%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.6%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.8%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 9.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.5%, FCF Yield is 5.5%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 24%, CFO LTM is 9.0 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.9 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 30%
3 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -0.6%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -53%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -58%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -8.6%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -5.8%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

VALE Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
VALE Return32%-2%32%1%-39%48%58%
Peers Return43%11%-5%16%-14%42%115%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
VALE Win Rate42%50%58%58%17%70% 
Peers Win Rate48%42%40%48%32%84% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
VALE Max Drawdown-50%-21%-8%-24%-40%-4% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-8%-25%-11%-21%-12% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: RIO, SCCO, NEM, CLF, ALM. See VALE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/6/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventVALES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-50.9%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven103.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-51.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven107.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven246 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-35.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven55.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven466 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-80.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven399.0%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days1480 days

Compare to RIO, SCCO, NEM, CLF, ALM


In The Past

Vale's stock fell -50.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/28/2021. A -50.9% loss requires a 103.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Vale (VALE)

Interactive Breakdown

Vale Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Vale (VALE)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to VALE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-2.5%
SLGN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025SLGNSilganDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.1%-1.1%-1.1%
TGLS_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025TGLSTecnoglassDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.6%-12.6%-12.6%
NEM_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025NEMNewmontQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-1.0%-1.0%-5.7%
RGLD_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025RGLDRoyal GoldQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-7.0%-7.0%-7.3%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ATR_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ATRAptarGroupDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.1%0.1%-2.5%
SLGN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025SLGNSilganDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.1%-1.1%-1.1%
TGLS_10242025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10242025TGLSTecnoglassDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-12.6%-12.6%-12.6%
NEM_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025NEMNewmontQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-1.0%-1.0%-5.7%
RGLD_10242025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10242025RGLDRoyal GoldQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-7.0%-7.0%-7.3%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Vale

Financials

VALERIOSCCONEMCLFALMMedian
NameVale Rio TintoSouthern.Newmont Clevelan.Almonty . 
Mkt Price12.2369.27137.2482.5310.096.4140.75
Mkt Cap52.2-112.990.55.01.452.2
Rev LTM37,467-12,33521,50318,6223018,622
Op Inc LTM10,908-6,1999,359-1,539-216,199
FCF LTM2,871-3,4806,122-1,547-692,871
FCF 3Y Avg4,191-3,0352,636141-452,636
CFO LTM9,014-4,6189,224-921-54,618
CFO 3Y Avg10,182-4,1125,616804-84,112

Growth & Margins

VALERIOSCCONEMCLFALMMedian
NameVale Rio TintoSouthern.Newmont Clevelan.Almonty . 
Rev Chg LTM-8.6%-12.7%26.6%-6.8%7.5%7.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-5.8%-7.1%23.9%-7.2%7.9%7.1%
Rev Chg Q9.1%-15.2%20.0%3.6%28.0%15.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.4%-3.8%4.5%0.9%6.7%3.8%
Op Mgn LTM29.1%-50.3%43.5%-8.3%-70.2%29.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg33.3%-47.3%23.9%-1.9%-38.4%23.9%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.0%-0.8%4.5%0.3%1.2%1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM24.1%-37.4%42.9%-4.9%-16.7%24.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg25.6%-36.6%32.6%3.6%-28.5%25.6%
FCF/Rev LTM7.7%-28.2%28.5%-8.3%-228.9%7.7%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg10.5%-27.0%13.8%0.3%-160.7%10.5%

Valuation

VALERIOSCCONEMCLFALMMedian
NameVale Rio TintoSouthern.Newmont Clevelan.Almonty . 
Mkt Cap52.2-112.990.55.01.452.2
P/S1.4-9.24.20.346.04.2
P/EBIT7.2-17.88.7-3.2-22.97.2
P/E9.5-29.612.6-3.0-21.39.5
P/CFO5.8-24.49.8-5.4-274.75.8
Total Yield10.5%-5.4%9.2%-33.4%-4.7%5.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%-2.0%1.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg8.1%-3.8%3.6%0.5%-3.7%
D/E0.4-0.10.11.60.10.1
Net D/E0.3-0.0-0.01.60.10.1

Returns

VALERIOSCCONEMCLFALMMedian
NameVale Rio TintoSouthern.Newmont Clevelan.Almonty . 
1M Rtn10.8%4.6%8.3%-5.1%-21.2%-10.0%-0.3%
3M Rtn22.4%16.8%41.9%19.9%7.1%61.1%21.2%
6M Rtn36.0%19.9%57.1%57.5%41.1%-41.1%
12M Rtn22.8%12.6%28.3%89.3%-27.6%-22.8%
3Y Rtn12.5%43.2%190.9%118.5%-25.9%-43.2%
1M Excs Rtn10.7%2.8%4.0%-6.1%-26.9%-15.7%-1.7%
3M Excs Rtn14.5%9.5%33.1%14.9%0.4%50.4%14.7%
6M Excs Rtn17.3%1.2%38.4%38.8%22.5%-22.5%
12M Excs Rtn5.4%-4.5%9.3%66.3%-40.7%-5.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-57.8%-22.0%134.3%42.2%-98.7%--22.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Assets by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Iron Solutions39,725    
Energy Transition Metals18,341    
Deferred income taxes9,565    
Inventories4,684    
Accounts receivable4,197    
Other3,833    
Cash and cash equivalents3,609    
Recoverable taxes2,274    
Others1,701    
Judicial deposits1,409    
Other financial assets864    
Short-term investments51    
Total90,253    


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity77,090,972
Short Interest: % Change Since 930202537.2%
Average Daily Volume36,661,456
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.10
Basic Shares Quantity4,268,779,000
Short % of Basic Shares1.8%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
9302025103120256-K 9/30/2025
630202580120256-K 6/30/2025
331202542520256-K 3/31/2025
12312024328202520-F 12/31/2024
9302024102520246-K 9/30/2024
630202472620246-K 6/30/2024
331202462520246-K 3/31/2024
12312023419202420-F 12/31/2023
9302023102720236-K 9/30/2023
630202372820236-K 6/30/2023
331202342720236-K 3/31/2023
12312022413202320-F 12/31/2022
9302022102820226-K 9/30/2022
630202272820226-K 6/30/2022
331202242720226-K 3/31/2022
12312021414202220-F 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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