Tearsheet

Tesla (TSLA)


Market Price (10/18/2025): $439.79 | Market Cap: $1.4 Tril
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Automobile Manufacturers

Tesla (TSLA)


Market Price (10/18/2025): $439.79
Market Cap: $1.4 Tril
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Automobile Manufacturers

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 16 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.6 Bil
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 176x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 90x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 232x
1   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 16 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.6 Bil
1 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 15x, P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 176x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 90x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 232x
2 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -2.7%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -12%
3 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -4.0%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

TSLA Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
TSLA Return743%50%-65%102%63%6%1383%
Peers Return3%43%-34%26%-1%14%38%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
TSLA Win Rate75%67%17%67%58%56% 
Peers Win Rate40%52%40%53%55%58% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
TSLA Max Drawdown-14%-20%-69%-12%-43%-45% 
Peers Max Drawdown-39%-3%-45%-16%-21%-17% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GM, PCAR, F, RIVN, OSK. See TSLA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventTSLAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-73.6%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven279.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven708 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-60.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven154.0%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven82 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-53.5%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven115.1%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven198 days120 days


How Low Can It Go?

Tesla's stock fell -73.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/4/2021. A -73.6% loss requires a 279.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

Interactive Breakdown

Tesla Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Tesla (TSLA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to TSLA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-20.0%-20.0%-20.0%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.5%-1.5%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.8%-6.8%-7.9%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-8.1%-8.1%-11.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-20.0%-20.0%-20.0%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.5%-1.5%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.8%-6.8%-7.9%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.5%0.5%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-8.1%-8.1%-11.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Tesla

Financials

TSLAGMPCARFRIVNOSKMedian
NameTesla General .PACCAR Ford Mot.Rivian A.Oshkosh  
Mkt Price439.3158.3894.6911.9213.03131.8876.53
Mkt Cap1,415.956.249.847.315.08.548.5
Rev LTM92,720187,60032,361182,8745,15110,38462,541
Op Inc LTM5,77810,6534,3564,313-3,5999634,334
FCF LTM5,586-1,8422,3639,309-4,4935891,476
FCF 3Y Avg4,488-3,1922,6515,908-4,9052091,430
CFO LTM15,76523,9704,08217,717-3,6158119,924
CFO 3Y Avg13,75121,6144,10313,986-3,8064898,927

Growth & Margins

TSLAGMPCARFRIVNOSKMedian
NameTesla General .PACCAR Ford Mot.Rivian A.Oshkosh  
Rev Chg LTM-2.7%5.3%-8.6%3.0%2.7%0.2%1.4%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg12.9%12.9%11.3%11.1%183.6%9.9%12.1%
Rev Chg Q-11.8%-1.8%-14.9%-5.0%12.5%-4.0%-4.5%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-3.1%-0.4%-3.9%-1.1%2.9%-1.1%-1.1%
Op Mgn LTM6.2%5.7%13.5%2.4%-69.9%9.3%6.0%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg9.1%6.3%14.8%3.1%-132.7%8.9%7.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.2%-0.9%-1.1%-0.5%7.2%-0.0%-0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM17.0%12.8%12.6%9.7%-70.2%7.8%11.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg14.6%12.1%12.4%7.9%-101.1%5.0%10.0%
FCF/Rev LTM6.0%-1.0%7.3%5.1%-87.2%5.7%5.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg4.8%-1.8%8.0%3.3%-128.0%2.2%2.7%

Valuation

TSLAGMPCARFRIVNOSKMedian
NameTesla General .PACCAR Ford Mot.Rivian A.Oshkosh  
Mkt Cap1,415.956.249.847.315.08.548.5
P/S15.30.31.50.32.90.81.2
P/EBIT175.87.111.46.4-4.78.77.9
P/E232.011.814.39.4-4.313.112.4
P/CFO89.82.312.22.7-4.210.56.6
Total Yield0.4%9.6%11.4%14.4%-23.3%9.1%9.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%1.1%4.5%3.8%0.0%1.5%1.3%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg0.5%-6.2%5.3%12.4%-32.4%3.2%1.9%
D/E0.02.40.33.30.40.20.4
Net D/E-0.01.90.12.6-0.10.20.2

Returns

TSLAGMPCARFRIVNOSKMedian
NameTesla General .PACCAR Ford Mot.Rivian A.Oshkosh  
1M Rtn3.2%-0.6%-6.1%2.2%-7.7%-1.5%-1.0%
3M Rtn33.3%10.0%1.4%8.2%-4.9%7.3%7.8%
6M Rtn82.0%31.7%8.1%27.3%12.3%57.4%29.5%
12M Rtn98.9%19.5%-8.3%15.9%28.8%26.4%23.0%
3Y Rtn99.5%75.9%77.8%25.6%-58.8%74.8%75.4%
1M Excs Rtn4.9%-2.0%-7.1%1.0%-11.7%-3.7%-2.8%
3M Excs Rtn28.1%4.3%-3.4%1.1%-10.6%2.3%1.7%
6M Excs Rtn55.9%5.6%-18.0%1.1%-13.8%31.3%3.4%
12M Excs Rtn85.5%8.7%-21.9%3.7%13.8%14.3%11.2%
3Y Excs Rtn15.9%0.8%-4.2%-55.4%-146.0%-0.6%-2.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Automotive segment90,73877,55351,03429,54223,047
Energy generation and storage segment6,0353,9092,7891,9941,531
Total96,77381,46253,82331,53624,578


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity76,816,175
Short Interest: % Change Since 9152025-10.9%
Average Daily Volume92,359,224
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1
Basic Shares Quantity3,223,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.4%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/2/2025-5.1%-4.5% 
7/2/20255.0%3.0%0.6%
4/2/20255.3%-17.4%4.5%
1/2/2025-6.1%-2.2%-5.0%
10/2/2024-3.5%-5.2%-0.2%
7/2/202410.2%25.0%10.6%
4/2/20241.1%6.2%8.0%
1/2/2024-4.0%-5.4%-24.0%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive151213
# Negative91211
Median Positive5.0%5.1%23.7%
Median Negative-6.1%-5.1%-13.8%
Max Positive13.5%26.1%81.3%
Max Negative-12.2%-17.4%-24.0%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025724202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025423202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024130202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241024202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024724202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023129202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231023202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023724202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023424202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022131202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221024202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022725202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022425202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021207202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211025202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Musk ElonCEO9152025Buy371.9022,5378,381,510152,782,698,375Form
1MURDOCH JAMES R8282025Sell350.29120,00042,034,320244,160,201Form
2Gebbia Joseph 4282025Buy256.314,0001,025,2321,053,682Form
3Musk Kimbal 2102025Sell367.8774,07727,250,558538,611,357Form