Virgin Galactic (SPCE)
Market Price (11/12/2025): $3.64 | Market Cap: $166.1 MilSector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Virgin Galactic (SPCE)
Market Price (11/12/2025): $3.64Market Cap: $166.1 MilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Aerospace & Defense
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -146%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -178% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -322 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -18968% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 98x | |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -84%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -90% | ||
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17179%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27708% | ||
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 190% | ||
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -187% | ||
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24% |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -29% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Advanced Aviation & Space. Themes include Commercial Space Exploration. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -146%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -178% |
| Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -322 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -18968% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 98x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -84%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -90% |
| Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17179%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27708% |
| Valuation getting more expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 190% |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -187% |
| Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
SPCE Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Here are the key points highlighting why Virgin Galactic (SPCE) stock moved by -4.2% from approximately July 31, 2025, to November 6, 2025:
1. Virgin Galactic reported significantly reduced revenue in its Second Quarter 2025 financial results on August 6, 2025, generating $0.4 million compared to $4.2 million in the second quarter of 2024. This decrease was primarily attributed to the pause in commercial spaceflights as the company prioritized the production of its Delta Class SpaceShips.
2. The company reaffirmed its timeline for the resumption of commercial spaceflights, with private astronaut flights still expected to commence in the fall of 2026. This extended period without revenue-generating commercial flights likely weighed on investor sentiment.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SPCE Return | 105% | -44% | -74% | -30% | -88% | -38% | -98% |
| Peers Return | -8% | -1% | 7% | 7% | -4% | 1% | 1% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SPCE Win Rate | 50% | 25% | 33% | 50% | 17% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 18% | 18% | 25% | 18% | 20% | 25% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SPCE Max Drawdown | -9% | -45% | -75% | -60% | -89% | -60% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -20% | -4% | -9% | -5% | -11% | -7% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BA, LMT, DFSC, FLY, PEW. See SPCE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/11/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SPCE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -97.7% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 4205.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -71.9% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 256.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 313 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -38.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.3% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 38 days | 120 days |
Compare to BA, LMT, DFSC, FLY, PEW
In The Past
Virgin Galactic's stock fell -97.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -97.7% loss requires a 4205.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | |
|---|---|
| ARTICLES |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SPCE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.6% | -12.6% | -12.6% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -4.9% | -4.9% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -2.7% | -2.7% | -2.7% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.3% | -7.3% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.8% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.6% | -12.6% | -12.6% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -4.9% | -4.9% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -2.7% | -2.7% | -2.7% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.3% | -7.3% | -10.5% |
| 10102025 | CARR | Carrier Global | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.9% | 0.9% | -0.8% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Virgin Galactic
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 11.74 |
| Mkt Cap | 106.0 |
| Rev LTM | 101 |
| Op Inc LTM | -211 |
| FCF LTM | -199 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | -245 |
| CFO LTM | -165 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | -198 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.5% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 22.7% |
| Rev Chg Q | 19.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | -209.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | -353.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | -164.1% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | -359.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | -197.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -390.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 106.0 |
| P/S | 1.8 |
| P/EBIT | -0.6 |
| P/E | -0.5 |
| P/CFO | -0.6 |
| Total Yield | -6.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -2.6% |
| D/E | 0.4 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.3% |
| 3M Rtn | -16.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 0.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -17.6% |
| 3Y Rtn | 6.8% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -16.0% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -23.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -15.5% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -29.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -78.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/6/2025 | -9.5% | -19.6% | -14.8% |
| 5/15/2025 | 43.3% | 9.9% | -8.7% |
| 2/26/2025 | -0.3% | -9.1% | -15.4% |
| 11/6/2024 | -11.8% | -0.6% | -9.0% |
| 8/7/2024 | 14.0% | 17.8% | 10.8% |
| 5/7/2024 | -1.5% | 25.7% | -18.0% |
| 2/27/2024 | -7.9% | -15.8% | -23.2% |
| 11/8/2023 | 19.2% | 40.4% | 49.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| # Negative | 14 | 15 | 17 |
| Median Positive | 6.6% | 15.5% | 22.4% |
| Median Negative | -9.4% | -15.8% | -18.4% |
| Max Positive | 43.3% | 40.4% | 95.9% |
| Max Negative | -17.6% | -28.3% | -53.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5152025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2262025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 11062024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 8072024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5072024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2272024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11092023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2282023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11032022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8042022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2282022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
| 9302021 | 11082021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |