Tearsheet

Virgin Galactic (SPCE)


Market Price (10/29/2025): $4.06 | Market Cap: $185.3 Mil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Virgin Galactic (SPCE)


Market Price (10/29/2025): $4.06
Market Cap: $185.3 Mil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Aerospace & Defense

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -149%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -179%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -322 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -18968%
1   Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 109x
2   Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -84%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -90%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17179%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27708%
4   Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 190%
5   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -168%
6   Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23%
0 Cash is significant % of market cap
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -26%
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -149%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -179%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -322 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -18968%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 109x
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -84%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -90%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -17179%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -27708%
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 190%
7 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -168%
8 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 23%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

SPCE Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SPCE Return105%-44%-74%-30%-88%-31%-98%
Peers Return-8%-1%7%7%-4%6%5%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%17%110%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SPCE Win Rate50%25%33%50%17%33% 
Peers Win Rate18%18%25%18%20%20% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SPCE Max Drawdown-9%-45%-75%-60%-89%-60% 
Peers Max Drawdown-20%-4%-9%-5%-11%-7% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BA, LMT, DFSC, FLY, PEW. See SPCE Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/28/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSPCES&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-97.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven4205.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-71.9%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven256.1%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven313 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-38.8%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.3%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven38 days120 days

Compare to BA, LMT, DFSC, FLY, PEW


In The Past

Virgin Galactic's stock fell -97.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/11/2021. A -97.7% loss requires a 4205.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Better Bets than Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SPCE. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
FCN_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025FCNFTI ConsultingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-6.2%
ODFL_9122025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09122025ODFLOld Dominion Freight LineMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-6.1%-6.1%-7.3%
EFX_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025EFXEquifaxMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-9.0%-9.0%-9.0%
UHAL_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025UHALU-HaulMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.8%-4.8%-5.6%
BWXT_8312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312025BWXTBWX TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
28.1%28.1%-1.2%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
FCN_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025FCNFTI ConsultingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
5.2%5.2%-6.2%
ODFL_9122025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09122025ODFLOld Dominion Freight LineMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-6.1%-6.1%-7.3%
EFX_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025EFXEquifaxMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-9.0%-9.0%-9.0%
UHAL_8312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper08312025UHALU-HaulMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-4.8%-4.8%-5.6%
BWXT_8312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%08312025BWXTBWX TechnologiesQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
28.1%28.1%-1.2%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Virgin Galactic

Financials

SPCEBALMTDFSCFLYPEWMedian
NameVirgin G.Boeing Lockheed.DEFSEC T.Firefly .GrabAGun. 
Mkt Price4.05223.33485.774.2325.774.8315.30
Mkt Cap0.2169.0112.7---112.7
Rev LTM275,32773,3494101-101
Op Inc LTM-322-9,3765,997-9-211--211
FCF LTM-470-8,5444,593-9-199--199
FCF 3Y Avg-480-2,1395,634-11---245
CFO LTM-292-6,1846,361-9-165--165
CFO 3Y Avg-387-2877,386-10---149

Growth & Margins

SPCEBALMTDFSCFLYPEWMedian
NameVirgin G.Boeing Lockheed.DEFSEC T.Firefly .GrabAGun. 
Rev Chg LTM-84.2%2.4%2.9%166.4%--2.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg35.4%7.8%4.3%94.3%--21.6%
Rev Chg Q-90.4%34.9%8.8%330.2%--21.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-69.2%8.5%2.1%35.8%--5.3%
Op Mgn LTM-18,967.7%-12.4%8.2%-209.1%-209.3%--209.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-12,824.2%-6.5%11.0%-699.5%---353.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-12,546.8%2.3%0.0%86.7%--1.1%
CFO/Rev LTM-17,179.4%-8.2%8.7%-212.3%-164.1%--164.1%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-11,080.8%-0.3%10.5%-716.7%---358.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-27,708.0%-11.3%6.3%-216.3%-197.5%--197.5%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-15,031.0%-2.8%8.0%-777.8%---390.3%

Valuation

SPCEBALMTDFSCFLYPEWMedian
NameVirgin G.Boeing Lockheed.DEFSEC T.Firefly .GrabAGun. 
Mkt Cap0.2169.0112.7---112.7
P/S108.92.21.5---2.2
P/EBIT-0.6-21.418.8----0.6
P/E-0.6-15.826.8----0.6
P/CFO-0.6-27.317.7----0.6
Total Yield-163.8%-6.3%5.8%----6.3%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%2.1%---0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-225.2%-1.5%4.8%----1.5%
D/E2.30.30.2---0.3
Net D/E-0.30.20.2---0.2

Returns

SPCEBALMTDFSCFLYPEWMedian
NameVirgin G.Boeing Lockheed.DEFSEC T.Firefly .GrabAGun. 
1M Rtn18.4%0.9%-0.3%21.6%-28.4%-3.4%0.3%
3M Rtn8.3%-1.2%16.5%8.0%--22.1%8.0%
6M Rtn36.4%22.7%3.5%---22.7%
12M Rtn-47.7%48.2%-10.0%----10.0%
3Y Rtn-95.7%55.3%8.6%---8.6%
1M Excs Rtn11.9%-0.6%-4.7%17.4%-33.7%2.7%1.1%
3M Excs Rtn2.1%-9.4%8.6%4.8%--29.5%2.1%
6M Excs Rtn12.4%-1.2%-20.4%----1.2%
12M Excs Rtn-62.0%25.3%-30.1%----30.1%
3Y Excs Rtn-179.1%-25.6%-67.8%----67.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment72304
Total72304


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,443,300
Short Interest: % Change Since 93020256.1%
Average Daily Volume6,201,241
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.68
Basic Shares Quantity45,641,000
Short % of Basic Shares22.9%

Earnings Returns History

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 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/6/2025-9.5%-19.6%-14.8%
5/15/202543.3%9.9%-8.7%
2/26/2025-0.3%-9.1%-15.4%
11/6/2024-11.8%-0.6%-9.0%
8/7/202414.0%17.8%10.8%
5/7/2024-1.5%25.7%-18.0%
2/27/2024-7.9%-15.8%-23.2%
11/8/202319.2%40.4%49.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive1097
# Negative141517
Median Positive6.6%15.5%22.4%
Median Negative-9.4%-15.8%-18.4%
Max Positive43.3%40.4%95.9%
Max Negative-17.6%-28.3%-53.0%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025515202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024226202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241106202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024807202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024507202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023227202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231109202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023801202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023509202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022228202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022804202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021228202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211108202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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