Tearsheet

Super Micro Computer (SMCI)


Market Price (11/27/2025): $32.95 | Market Cap: $19.6 Bil
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Super Micro Computer (SMCI)


Market Price (11/27/2025): $32.95
Market Cap: $19.6 Bil
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and AI Chips.
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -35%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 59x
1  Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15%
2   Short seller report
Hindenburg Research report on 8/27/2024.
0 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and AI Chips.
1 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -35%
2 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15%
3 Expensive valuation multiples
P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 59x
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15%
5 Short seller report
Hindenburg Research report on 8/27/2024.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

SMCI Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

1. Margin Pressure and Expected Gross Margin Decline: Super Micro Computer has faced significant margin pressure, with gross margins anticipated to drop sharply. This includes a projected sequential decline of 300 basis points in its gross margin for the second quarter of fiscal 2026.

2. Intensified Competition and Customer Concentration: Rising competition from major players in the storage and server space, such as Pure Storage, Dell Technologies, and Hewlett Packard Enterprise, has created pricing and execution challenges. Additionally, customer concentration and new deals with larger customers have squeezed margins as the company aims to retain these clients.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
SMCI Return32%39%87%246%7%7%1252%
Peers Return16%5%-16%34%5%1%45%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%109%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
SMCI Win Rate58%58%50%58%42%60% 
Peers Win Rate45%50%33%52%42%48% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
SMCI Max Drawdown-33%-2%-21%-14%-37%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-34%-10%-30%-6%-10%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MKSI, OLED, BMI, AVT, BGIN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/26/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventSMCIS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-34.5%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven52.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven120 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-45.8%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven84.4%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven82 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-59.6%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven147.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven440 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-66.3%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven196.9%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven404 days1480 days

Compare to MKSI, OLED, BMI, AVT, BGIN


In The Past

Super Micro Computer's stock fell -34.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/7/2023. A -34.5% loss requires a 52.6% gain to breakeven.

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About Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

Better Bets than Super Micro Computer (SMCI)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to SMCI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ZBRA_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025ZBRAZebra TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.0%-7.0%-15.2%
ACN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ACNAccentureDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-4.0%
ADBE_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.7%-6.7%-8.2%
TXN_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025TXNTexas InstrumentsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.4%2.4%-5.0%
MRVL_10242025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10242025MRVLMarvell TechnologyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.3%4.3%-8.9%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ZBRA_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025ZBRAZebra TechnologiesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.0%-7.0%-15.2%
ACN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ACNAccentureDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-4.0%
ADBE_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025ADBEAdobeDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-6.7%-6.7%-8.2%
TXN_10312025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312025TXNTexas InstrumentsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
2.4%2.4%-5.0%
MRVL_10242025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10242025MRVLMarvell TechnologyMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
4.3%4.3%-8.9%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Super Micro Computer

Peers to compare with:

Financials

SMCIMKSIOLEDBMIAVTBGINMedian
NameSuper Mi.MKS Universa.Badger M.Avnet BGIN Blo. 
Mkt Price32.83152.02118.21176.9147.232.8982.72
Mkt Cap19.610.25.65.23.9-5.6
Rev LTM21,0533,83164090122,495-3,831
Op Inc LTM926553234180604-553
FCF LTM218530161166333-218
FCF 3Y Avg-568392123129212-129
CFO LTM333679214181474-333
CFO 3Y Avg-465511197141400-197

Growth & Margins

SMCIMKSIOLEDBMIAVTBGINMedian
NameSuper Mi.MKS Universa.Badger M.Avnet BGIN Blo. 
Rev Chg LTM11.9%8.1%-0.6%12.1%-2.3%-8.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg63.1%6.4%2.6%17.7%-3.9%-6.4%
Rev Chg Q-15.5%10.3%-13.6%13.1%5.3%-5.3%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-4.2%2.5%-3.3%3.1%1.3%-1.3%
Op Mgn LTM4.4%14.4%36.5%19.9%2.7%-14.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg7.4%13.3%38.6%18.3%3.6%-13.3%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-1.3%-0.1%-2.4%0.0%-0.1%--0.1%
CFO/Rev LTM1.6%17.7%33.5%20.1%2.1%-17.7%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-0.8%13.7%31.3%17.6%1.8%-13.7%
FCF/Rev LTM1.0%13.8%25.2%18.5%1.5%-13.8%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-1.4%10.5%19.2%16.1%1.0%-10.5%

Valuation

SMCIMKSIOLEDBMIAVTBGINMedian
NameSuper Mi.MKS Universa.Badger M.Avnet BGIN Blo. 
Mkt Cap19.610.25.65.23.9-5.6
P/S0.92.78.85.80.2-2.7
P/EBIT19.819.124.029.07.9-19.8
P/E24.736.725.437.516.8-25.4
P/CFO58.715.126.228.88.3-26.2
Total Yield4.1%3.3%3.9%3.5%8.8%-3.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.6%0.0%0.8%2.9%-0.6%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.8%5.3%1.5%2.5%4.5%-2.5%
D/E0.20.40.00.00.8-0.2
Net D/E0.00.4-0.1-0.00.8-0.0

Returns

SMCIMKSIOLEDBMIAVTBGINMedian
NameSuper Mi.MKS Universa.Badger M.Avnet BGIN Blo. 
1M Rtn-36.3%5.0%-21.5%-3.2%-7.6%-32.7%-14.6%
3M Rtn-26.7%44.1%-15.9%-5.9%-13.6%--13.6%
6M Rtn-21.8%78.9%-17.5%-27.7%-5.0%--17.5%
12M Rtn-4.6%35.5%-26.1%-17.5%-11.6%--11.6%
3Y Rtn249.7%92.3%11.0%54.7%13.1%-54.7%
1M Excs Rtn-36.2%9.5%-19.1%-3.3%-5.4%-33.8%-12.3%
3M Excs Rtn-30.1%36.8%-20.8%-9.7%-18.1%--18.1%
6M Excs Rtn-35.4%63.4%-33.4%-43.7%-20.8%--33.4%
12M Excs Rtn-15.1%19.5%-43.1%-33.5%-25.1%--25.1%
3Y Excs Rtn218.8%40.9%-58.9%-16.2%-57.5%--16.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20252024202320222021
Server and storage systems14,1856,5704,4642,7902,621
Subsystems and accessories804554732767719
Total14,9897,1235,1963,5573,339


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity88,043,720
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202514.6%
Average Daily Volume33,020,975
Days-to-Cover Short Interest2.67
Basic Shares Quantity595,624,000
Short % of Basic Shares14.8%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/2025-8.7%0.4%-39.9%
8/5/2025-18.3%-18.9%-28.9%
4/29/2025-11.5%-8.5%14.3%
2/11/20252.8%56.0%1.2%
11/5/2024-18.1%-21.7%48.5%
8/6/2024-20.1%-8.0%-32.8%
4/30/2024-14.0%-4.6%-3.6%
1/18/202435.9%52.7%157.9%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive111316
# Negative13118
Median Positive12.5%16.9%23.5%
Median Negative-10.2%-7.7%-18.1%
Max Positive35.9%56.0%157.9%
Max Negative-20.1%-21.7%-39.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251107202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025828202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025512202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024225202510-Q 12/31/2024
9302024225202510-Q 9/30/2024
6302024225202510-K 6/30/2024
3312024506202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023202202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231103202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023828202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023505202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022203202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221104202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022829202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022506202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-Q 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara7302025Sell60.00200,00012,000,0002,425,567,200Form
1Liang CharlesPresident and CEO7302025Sell60.00200,00012,000,0002,425,567,200Form
2Liang CharlesPresident and CEO6202025Sell45.00300,00013,500,0003,010,663,800Form
3Liu Liang Chiu-Chu Sara6202025Sell45.00300,00013,500,0003,010,663,800Form
4WEIGAND DAVID ESVP, Chief Financial Officer5222025Sell44.0267,0002,949,4943,900,332Form

Industry Resources

Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources
The Verge
TechRadar
Tom’s Hardware
PCMag
CNET