Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
Market Price (12/3/2025): $33.195 | Market Cap: $19.8 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Super Micro Computer (SMCI)
Market Price (12/3/2025): $33.195Market Cap: $19.8 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and AI Chips. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 86x |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15% | |
| Short seller reportHindenburg Research report on 8/27/2024. |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Artificial Intelligence. Themes include Data Centers & Infrastructure, and AI Chips. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 15% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 86x |
| Weak revenue growthRev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -15% |
| Short seller reportHindenburg Research report on 8/27/2024. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SMCI Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
1. Intensifying Competition and Market Share Erosion
Super Micro Computer has faced increasing competition in the AI server market from original design manufacturers (ODMs) and larger established players like Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise. This intensified competition has led to market share erosion and pricing pressure, limiting Super Micro's ability to expand profitability despite strong revenue growth.
2. Significant Gross Margin Pressure and Deterioration
The company has experienced significant pressure and deterioration in its gross and net profit margins. This decline is attributed to heightened price competition, rising costs (including for GPUs and stock-based compensation), and the inability to fully pass these increased costs to customers. Gross margins have reportedly fallen to multi-year lows.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SMCI Return | 32% | 39% | 87% | 246% | 7% | 8% | 1271% |
| Peers Return | 16% | 5% | -16% | 34% | 5% | 3% | 48% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SMCI Win Rate | 58% | 58% | 50% | 58% | 42% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 45% | 50% | 33% | 52% | 42% | 48% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SMCI Max Drawdown | -33% | -2% | -21% | -14% | -37% | -12% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -34% | -10% | -30% | -6% | -10% | -22% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MKSI, OLED, BMI, AVT, BGIN.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/2/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SMCI | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.5% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 52.6% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 120 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -45.8% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 84.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 82 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -59.6% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 147.6% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 440 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -66.3% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 196.9% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 404 days | 1480 days |
Compare to MKSI, OLED, BMI, AVT, BGIN
In The Past
Super Micro Computer's stock fell -34.5% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 8/7/2023. A -34.5% loss requires a 52.6% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SMCI. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | ENPH | Enphase Energy | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -0.9% | -0.9% | -0.9% |
| 11262025 | PD | PagerDuty | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | CRM | Salesforce | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 2.5% | 2.5% | -0.1% |
| 11212025 | HUBS | HubSpot | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 5.1% | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 11212025 | FIVN | Five9 | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.9% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Super Micro Computer
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 84.30 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.7 |
| Rev LTM | 3,831 |
| Op Inc LTM | 553 |
| FCF LTM | 218 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 129 |
| CFO LTM | 333 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 197 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.1% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.4% |
| Rev Chg Q | 5.3% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.3% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 14.4% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 13.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 13.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 13.8% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.5% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.7 |
| P/S | 2.2 |
| P/EBIT | 28.9 |
| P/E | 30.8 |
| P/CFO | 29.0 |
| Total Yield | 3.4% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.7% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -10.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -6.8% |
| 6M Rtn | -19.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -20.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 54.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -10.5% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -13.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -33.7% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -22.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -16.9% |
Returns Analyses
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 11072025 | 10-Q 9/30/2025 |
| 6302025 | 8282025 | 10-K 6/30/2025 |
| 3312025 | 5122025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2252025 | 10-Q 12/31/2024 |
| 9302024 | 2252025 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
| 6302024 | 2252025 | 10-K 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5062024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2022024 | 10-Q 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 11032023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8282023 | 10-K 6/30/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5052023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
| 12312022 | 2032023 | 10-Q 12/31/2022 |
| 9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8292022 | 10-K 6/30/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5062022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2042022 | 10-Q 12/31/2021 |
Industry Resources
| Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals Resources |
| The Verge |
| TechRadar |
| Tom’s Hardware |
| PCMag |
| CNET |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |