Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $85.36 | Market Cap: $8.3 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Retail
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)
Market Price (12/8/2025): $85.36Market Cap: $8.3 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Food Retail
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% | |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% | |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -34% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 46% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
SFM Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between August 31, 2025, and December 8, 2025, Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) experienced a stock price decline of approximately 39.1% due to several key factors:
**1. Reduced Fiscal Year 2025 Outlook for Sales and Comparable Store Growth.**
Sprouts Farmers Market reported strong third-quarter 2025 results on October 29, 2025, with net sales increasing by 13% and comparable store sales growing by 5.9% compared to the same period in 2024. However, the company's updated guidance for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025 disappointed investors. Sprouts projected fourth-quarter comparable store sales growth to be between 0.0% and 2.0% and diluted earnings per share (EPS) between $0.86 and $0.90. Furthermore, the full-year 2025 comparable store sales growth forecast was cut to approximately 7% from an earlier range of 7.5%-9.0%, and net sales growth was adjusted to 14% from a previous range of 14.5% to 16%. This downward revision in future performance expectations likely contributed significantly to the stock's decline.
**2. Negative Revisions and Downgrades from Wall Street Analysts.**
Following the updated outlook, several prominent financial firms revised their ratings and price targets for SFM shares. On or around October 30, 2025, JPMorgan Chase & Co. reduced its price target from $124.00 to $91.00, Roth Capital reaffirmed a "neutral" rating with a $91.00 price objective, and BMO Capital Markets set a $90.00 price target. Goldman Sachs also lowered its price target to $152 from $178 on October 31, 2025, while maintaining a "Buy" rating. Additionally, Wall Street Zen downgraded Sprouts Farmers Market from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating on November 3, 2025.
**3. Initiation of Securities Fraud Class Action Lawsuits.**
In early December 2025, multiple law firms, including The Schall Law Firm and Rosen Law Firm, announced the filing of class action lawsuits against Sprouts Farmers Market. These lawsuits, covering investors who purchased securities between June 4, 2025, and October 29, 2025, allege that the company made "false and misleading statements" by creating a "false impression for investors that it could accurately project its revenue and also withstand competitive and macroeconomic pressures on its business." The complaints suggest that Sprouts' optimistic projections proved untrue as consumers reportedly turned away due to market conditions and competitive offers.
**4. Concerns Over Weakening Consumer Sentiment and Competitive Pressures.**
Despite Sprouts' operational strength and growth in net income and free cash flow since 2022, market commentary indicated investor criticism of the anticipated mild comparable store sales growth for the fourth quarter. Reports suggested that weakening consumer confidence could lead people to opt for cheaper food alternatives, potentially impacting Sprouts, which is seen as a more expensive grocery chain. This perception of vulnerability to broader economic conditions and heightened competition in the grocery sector likely contributed to investor apprehension.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SFM Return | 4% | 48% | 9% | 49% | 164% | -33% | 341% |
| Peers Return | 23% | 28% | -2% | 16% | 29% | -12% | 103% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 17% | 112% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SFM Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 50% | 58% | 92% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 62% | 63% | 52% | 62% | 43% | 54% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SFM Max Drawdown | -31% | -3% | -23% | -7% | -1% | -39% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -15% | -16% | -16% | -11% | -18% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: KR, ACI, NGVC, GO, WMK. See SFM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 12/5/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SFM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 288 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 144 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 881 days | 120 days |
Compare to AMZN, KR, UNFI, IMKTA, NGVC
In The Past
Sprouts Farmers Market's stock fell -33.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -33.9% loss requires a 51.2% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to SFM. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.9% | -2.9% | -3.7% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.4% | 4.4% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -5.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11302025 | BF-B | Brown-Forman | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 5.7% | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 11302025 | CPB | Campbell's | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -2.9% | -2.9% | -3.7% |
| 11212025 | ENR | Energizer | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 1.4% | 1.4% | -5.3% |
| 11212025 | FLO | Flowers Foods | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 4.4% | 4.4% | -1.6% |
| 11142025 | CLX | Clorox | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 1.2% | 1.2% | -5.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sprouts Farmers Market
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 43.89 |
| Mkt Cap | 5.0 |
| Rev LTM | 6,774 |
| Op Inc LTM | 399 |
| FCF LTM | 246 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 200 |
| CFO LTM | 455 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 394 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 4.9% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.2% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.6% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.2% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.2% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 5.0 |
| P/S | 0.4 |
| P/EBIT | 15.1 |
| P/E | 17.6 |
| P/CFO | 8.4 |
| Total Yield | 6.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.4 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -3.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -22.0% |
| 6M Rtn | -17.8% |
| 12M Rtn | -24.0% |
| 3Y Rtn | 13.7% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -27.7% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -32.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -39.1% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -55.9% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/29/2025 | -26.1% | -23.7% | -17.9% |
| 7/30/2025 | -4.1% | -4.6% | -10.5% |
| 2/20/2025 | -15.6% | -15.9% | -16.1% |
| 10/30/2024 | 8.1% | 18.5% | 30.0% |
| 7/29/2024 | 13.3% | 12.2% | 21.2% |
| 2/22/2024 | 10.9% | 16.1% | 18.3% |
| 10/31/2023 | -3.1% | -6.1% | -4.0% |
| 8/1/2023 | -2.3% | -2.5% | 5.7% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 11 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 9 | 8 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 10.9% | 12.7% | 12.0% |
| Median Negative | -3.1% | -5.4% | -10.5% |
| Max Positive | 13.5% | 18.5% | 36.3% |
| Max Negative | -26.1% | -23.7% | -17.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 9302025 | 10292025 | 10-Q 9/28/2025 |
| 6302025 | 7302025 | 10-Q 6/29/2025 |
| 3312025 | 4302025 | 10-Q 3/30/2025 |
| 12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/29/2024 |
| 9302024 | 10302024 | 10-Q 9/29/2024 |
| 6302024 | 7292024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
| 3312024 | 5012024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
| 12312023 | 2222024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
| 9302023 | 10312023 | 10-Q 10/1/2023 |
| 6302023 | 8012023 | 10-Q 7/2/2023 |
| 3312023 | 5012023 | 10-Q 4/2/2023 |
| 12312022 | 3022023 | 10-K 1/1/2023 |
| 9302022 | 11082022 | 10-Q 10/2/2022 |
| 6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 7/3/2022 |
| 3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 4/3/2022 |
| 12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 1/2/2022 |
External Quote Links
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| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |