Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)
Market Price (4/23/2026): $75.03 | Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Food Retail
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)
Market Price (4/23/2026): $75.03Market Cap: $7.3 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Food Retail
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 6.5% Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22% Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% | Key risksSFM key risks include [1] defending its differentiated niche against encroaching conventional supermarkets, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.2%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.3%, FCF Yield is 6.5% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -33% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 43% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and E-commerce & DTC Adoption. Themes include Organic & Natural Products, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -22% |
| Meaningful short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 11% |
| Key risksSFM key risks include [1] defending its differentiated niche against encroaching conventional supermarkets, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) stock has lost about 5% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:
1. Disappointing 2026 Financial Outlook.
Sprouts Farmers Market's guidance for Q1 2026 projected comparable store sales to be negative, ranging from -3% to -1%, and full-year 2026 diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.28–$5.44 (on a 52-week basis). This outlook was below analyst expectations by 5.8% at the midpoint, signaling near-term challenges and contributing to investor apprehension.
2. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions.
Following the release of the Q4 2025 earnings report and the subdued 2026 guidance, several financial analysts revised their ratings and lowered their price targets for SFM stock. For instance, JPMorgan reduced its price target for Sprouts Farmers Market to $77 from $88. These adjustments reflected a more conservative view of the company's future performance.
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1. Disappointing 2026 Financial Outlook.
Sprouts Farmers Market's guidance for Q1 2026 projected comparable store sales to be negative, ranging from -3% to -1%, and full-year 2026 diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.28–$5.44 (on a 52-week basis). This outlook was below analyst expectations by 5.8% at the midpoint, signaling near-term challenges and contributing to investor apprehension.
2. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions.
Following the release of the Q4 2025 earnings report and the subdued 2026 guidance, several financial analysts revised their ratings and lowered their price targets for SFM stock. For instance, JPMorgan reduced its price target for Sprouts Farmers Market to $77 from $88. These adjustments reflected a more conservative view of the company's future performance.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -5.9% change in SFM stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -8.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 12312025 | 4222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 79.67 | 74.99 | -5.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,654 | 8,806 | 1.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.9% | 5.9% | 0.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 15.2 | 13.8 | -8.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 98 | 97 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -5.9% |
Market Drivers
12/31/2025 to 4/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SFM | -5.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | -5.4% | -17.5% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.7% | 12.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -31.1% change in SFM stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -36.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 4222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 108.80 | 74.99 | -31.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 8,399 | 8,806 | 4.8% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.0% |
| P/E Multiple | 22.0 | 13.8 | -36.9% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 98 | 97 | 1.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -31.1% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 4/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SFM | -31.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | -2.9% | 6.1% |
| Sector (XLP) | 5.6% | 13.7% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -50.9% change in SFM stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/22/2026 was primarily driven by a -65.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312025 | 4222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 152.64 | 74.99 | -50.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 7,719 | 8,806 | 14.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.9% | 5.9% | 20.6% |
| P/E Multiple | 40.0 | 13.8 | -65.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 100 | 97 | 3.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -50.9% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2025 to 4/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SFM | -50.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 16.3% | 18.7% |
| Sector (XLP) | 2.7% | 25.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 114.1% change in SFM stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/22/2026 was primarily driven by a 45.8% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 3312023 | 4222026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 35.03 | 74.99 | 114.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 6,404 | 8,806 | 37.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 4.1% | 5.9% | 45.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 14.2 | 13.8 | -2.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 106 | 97 | 9.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 114.1% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2023 to 4/22/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| SFM | 114.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 63.3% | 23.4% |
| Sector (XLP) | 18.6% | 21.2% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| SFM Return | 48% | 9% | 49% | 164% | -37% | -5% | 275% |
| Peers Return | 28% | -2% | 16% | 29% | -16% | 2% | 60% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 3% | 88% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| SFM Win Rate | 50% | 50% | 58% | 92% | 42% | 50% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 63% | 52% | 62% | 43% | 50% | 60% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| SFM Max Drawdown | -3% | -23% | -7% | -1% | -39% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -16% | -16% | -11% | -18% | -20% | -13% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | -7% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: KR, ACI, NGVC, GO, WMK. See SFM Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/22/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | SFM | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -33.9% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.2% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 288 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -32.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 47.4% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 144 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -41.8% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 71.9% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 881 days | 120 days |
Compare to KR, ACI, NGVC, GO, WMK
In The Past
Sprouts Farmers Market's stock fell -33.9% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/8/2022. A -33.9% loss requires a 51.2% gain to breakeven.
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About Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. offers fresh, natural, and organic food products in the United States. The company offers perishable product categories, including fresh produce, meat, seafood, deli, bakery, floral and dairy, and dairy alternatives; and non-perishable product categories, such as grocery, vitamins and supplements, bulk items, frozen foods, beer and wine, and natural health and body care. As of January 2, 2022, it operated 374 stores in 23 states. Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona.
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A more value-oriented Whole Foods.
Like Whole Foods, but with a stronger "farmers market" emphasis on fresh produce.
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- Fresh Produce: A variety of fruits, vegetables, and other raw plant-based foods, often organic.
- Meat & Seafood: Fresh and prepared animal protein products, including various cuts of meat and fish.
- Deli & Bakery Items: Prepared foods, artisanal baked goods, and specialty deli items.
- Dairy & Dairy Alternatives: A selection of traditional dairy products like milk and cheese, alongside plant-based alternatives.
- Floral: Fresh cut flowers and potted plants for home decoration and gifting.
- Grocery Items: A wide range of packaged, natural, and organic pantry staples and household goods.
- Vitamins & Supplements: Dietary aids, health supplements, and natural remedies.
- Bulk Items: Foods and other products available in larger quantities, often self-dispensed from bins.
- Frozen Foods: Various pre-packaged and prepared food items kept frozen for extended shelf life.
- Beer & Wine: A selection of alcoholic beverages.
- Natural Health & Body Care: Personal care products, cosmetics, and wellness items made with natural ingredients.
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Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) sells primarily to **individuals** rather than other companies. Based on its focus on fresh, natural, and organic food products, its major customer categories include:
- Health-Conscious Individuals: Customers who prioritize their well-being by actively seeking out organic, natural, and minimally processed foods, as well as products free from artificial ingredients and harmful chemicals.
- Environmentally and Ethically Minded Shoppers: Consumers who value sustainable practices, locally sourced products, and brands that align with ethical production and environmental responsibility.
- Individuals with Specific Dietary Preferences or Restrictions: Customers following specialized diets such as vegan, vegetarian, gluten-free, dairy-free, or other lifestyle-based eating plans, who rely on Sprouts for a diverse selection of suitable and specialized products.
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Jack L. Sinclair, Chief Executive Officer
Jack L. Sinclair joined Sprouts Farmers Market as CEO in June 2019, bringing over 35 years of experience in retail and grocery. Prior to Sprouts, he served as CEO of 99 Cents Only Stores LLC from 2018 to 2019, and as its Chief Merchandising Officer from 2015 to 2018. From 2007 to 2015, Mr. Sinclair was the Executive Vice President of the U.S. Grocery Division of Walmart Inc., where he was responsible for all aspects of Walmart's U.S. grocery business across more than 4,000 stores. He also spent 14 years at Safeway PLC in London, overseeing operations, merchandising, and marketing for over 450 supermarket and convenience store locations throughout the United Kingdom.
Curtis Valentine, Chief Financial Officer
Curtis Valentine was appointed Chief Financial Officer of Sprouts Farmers Market, effective January 1, 2024. He previously held the role of Senior Vice President of Finance at Sprouts since March 2023, and Vice President of Financial Planning and Analysis from December 2016 to March 2023. Before joining Sprouts, Mr. Valentine held financial management roles across multiple business units at PetSmart, Inc. for seven years, from April 2008 to April 2015.
Nicholas Konat, President and Chief Operating Officer
Nicholas Konat serves as the President and Chief Operating Officer for Sprouts Farmers Market.
James H. Bahrenburg, Chief Technology Officer
James H. Bahrenburg holds the position of Chief Technology Officer at Sprouts Farmers Market.
David M. McGlinchey, Chief Development Officer
David M. McGlinchey is the Chief Development Officer for Sprouts Farmers Market.
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Here are the key risks to Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM):
- Intense Competition and Changing Consumer Preferences: Sprouts Farmers Market operates in a highly competitive retail food industry where conventional supermarkets and other specialty retailers are aggressively expanding their natural and organic offerings. This intensified competition can lead to pricing pressures, reduced profit margins, and a loss of market share for SFM. The company must continuously differentiate itself through product innovation and customer experience to maintain its competitive edge.
- Softening Consumer Backdrop and Economic Conditions: Sprouts Farmers Market is susceptible to broader macroeconomic shifts, including inflation, recessionary cycles, and increased interest rates, which can impact consumer spending habits. Recent reports indicate a "softening consumer backdrop" leading to moderated comparable store sales growth, declining traffic, and shrinking basket sizes, directly affecting the company's sales and profitability.
- Supply Chain Disruptions and Operational Challenges: The company faces risks related to supply chain disruptions, particularly concerning the availability of fresh produce and quality organic products, which are central to its brand identity. Other operational challenges include maintaining appropriate inventory levels, potential inventory losses, labor shortages, and increased wage costs, all of which could adversely affect profitability and operating results.
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The rise of advanced localized agriculture, particularly urban vertical farms, poses an emerging threat. These farms can produce ultra-fresh, hyper-local, and often more sustainable produce year-round. As this technology scales and becomes more cost-effective, it enables new direct-to-consumer (D2C) distribution models, or partnerships that bypass traditional grocery supply chains. This directly threatens Sprouts Farmers Market's core value proposition of fresh, natural, and organic produce by offering consumers a potentially fresher, more local, and sustainable alternative delivered directly, thereby reducing the need for traditional grocery store visits for a significant portion of their shopping needs.
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Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) operates within several significant addressable markets in the United States, focusing on natural, organic, and healthy food products, along with related wellness items.
Addressable Markets for Sprouts Farmers Market (U.S. Region)
- U.S. Organic Food Market: This broad category, highly relevant to Sprouts Farmers Market's offerings, was valued at approximately $95.43 billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to nearly $191.26 billion by 2035.
- U.S. Health & Wellness Food Market: Encompassing a wider range of healthy and natural food products, this market was valued at $249.49 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $517.95 billion by 2032.
- U.S. Fresh Fruits & Vegetables Market: A core component of Sprouts Farmers Market's perishable offerings, the U.S. fresh fruits and vegetables market was valued at $96.26 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to reach $127.61 billion by 2030.
- U.S. Vitamins and Supplements Market: Directly addressing Sprouts' "vitamins and supplements" category, this market was valued at approximately $49.9 billion as per a 2024 report.
- U.S. Specialty Food Stores Market: This market describes the retail segment in which Sprouts Farmers Market operates. The market size for Specialty Food Stores in the U.S. was $32.4 billion in 2024.
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Expected Drivers of Future Revenue Growth for Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) is anticipated to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several strategic initiatives:
- Aggressive New Store Expansion: Sprouts Farmers Market is pursuing an aggressive store expansion strategy, with plans to open at least 35 new stores in 2025 and over 40 new stores in 2026. This expansion targets an approximate 10% annual unit growth. The company is focusing on a smaller, more efficient prototype format (21,000–25,000 square feet) which is cheaper to build and operate, allowing it to enter a broader range of markets and achieve stronger sales per square foot. Geographic focus areas for expansion include Florida, California, Texas, and laying the foundation for future growth in the Midwest and Northeast.
- Continued Product Innovation and Differentiation: The company is focused on expanding its unique product assortment, emphasizing its Sprouts Brand private-label portfolio and attribute-driven products such as organic, plant-based, gluten-free, and non-GMO options. The Sprouts Brand accounted for over 25% of revenue in 2025, and organic offerings exceeded 30% of total sales, with over 50% of fresh produce sales being organic. Sprouts launched over 7,000 new products in 2025 to maintain its differentiated offering for health-conscious consumers.
- Enhanced Customer Engagement and Loyalty Program: Sprouts Farmers Market is investing in customer engagement and personalization, particularly through its loyalty program, which launched recently. This program aims to gather deeper customer insights and is expected to drive comparable sales and improve customer retention and spend.
- Growth in E-commerce Sales: E-commerce continues to be a significant growth channel for Sprouts. In the fourth quarter of 2025, e-commerce sales grew 15% and represented approximately 15.5% of total sales, indicating continued strong performance and contribution to overall revenue.
- Expansion of Self-Distribution Network: Sprouts is investing in its supply chain, specifically by expanding its self-distribution network. This includes building new distribution centers (e.g., in Colorado, Florida, and Southern California) and transitioning to self-distribution for meat and seafood, serving roughly 70% of its stores. This strategy aims to improve efficiency, ensure the freshness of products, and support the accelerated store growth, thereby indirectly fueling revenue growth through better product availability and quality.
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Share Repurchases
- Sprouts Farmers Market authorized a new $1 billion share repurchase program on August 13, 2025, which replaced a previous authorization that had approximately $143 million remaining.
- The company repurchased $472 million of common stock in 2025.
- Sprouts executed annual share repurchases of $228.472 million in 2024 and $199.98 million in 2023.
Share Issuance
- Shares outstanding have generally declined over the past three years, from 0.103 billion in 2023 to 0.101 billion in 2024, and 0.099 billion in 2025, indicating a net reduction through repurchases rather than significant issuance.
Capital Expenditures
- Sprouts invested $224 million in capital expenditures in 2025.
- The company anticipates capital expenditures (net of landlord reimbursements) of $280 million to $310 million for 2026.
- The primary focus of these capital expenditures is on new store openings, remodels, and investments in supply chain capabilities, including distribution centers, to support unit growth.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select ideas related to SFM.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03272026 | MZTI | Marzetti | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| 03272026 | TAP | Molson Coors Beverage | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.8% | -0.8% | -1.1% |
| 03202026 | KHC | Kraft Heinz | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 4.3% | 4.3% | -1.7% |
| 03202026 | KMB | Kimberly-Clark | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.8% | -1.8% | -1.9% |
| 03202026 | MKC | McCormick | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.2% | -5.2% | -5.2% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 47.80 |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| Rev LTM | 6,882 |
| Op Inc LTM | 403 |
| FCF LTM | 255 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 207 |
| CFO LTM | 469 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 411 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 4.3% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.5% |
| Rev Chg Q | 3.5% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 0.9% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | -8.9% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | -5.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 2.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 2.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 4.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.7% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 1.5% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.3% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 4.5 |
| P/S | 0.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 10.2 |
| P/EBIT | 10.3 |
| P/E | 13.5 |
| P/CFO | 7.2 |
| Total Yield | 7.3% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 5.0% |
| D/E | 0.5 |
| Net D/E | 0.5 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 2.6% |
| 3M Rtn | 4.2% |
| 6M Rtn | -21.3% |
| 12M Rtn | -32.2% |
| 3Y Rtn | 20.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -5.9% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -27.1% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -69.0% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -51.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Price Behavior
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $74.99 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 7.2 | |
| First Trading Date | 08/01/2013 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -58.2% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $75.41 | $100.46 |
| DMA Trend | down | up |
| Distance from DMA | -0.6% | -25.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 36.3% | 42.7% |
| Downside Capture | -0.37 | 0.45 |
| Upside Capture | -91.57 | -31.62 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -35.5% | 5.5% |
SFM Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -1.93 | -1.11 | -0.57 | 0.25 | 0.44 | 0.58 |
| Up Beta | -2.49 | 0.14 | -0.89 | -0.30 | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| Down Beta | -2.21 | -1.78 | -0.44 | 0.65 | 0.50 | 0.76 |
| Up Capture | -212% | -89% | -67% | -18% | -4% | 32% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 7 | 16 | 27 | 65 | 139 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 31 | 61 | 118 | 403 |
| Down Capture | -158% | -131% | -40% | 72% | 81% | 65% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 12 | 23 | 33 | 58 | 110 | 323 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 21 | 32 | 64 | 132 | 342 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SFM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFM | -54.1% | 42.7% | -1.69 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 3.5% | 12.4% | -0.00 | 19.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 26.7% | 12.5% | 1.77 | 6.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 38.9% | 27.4% | 1.19 | -9.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 23.5% | 16.2% | 1.32 | -2.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 15.6% | 13.6% | 0.82 | 15.3% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -12.8% | 42.6% | -0.21 | 3.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SFM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFM | 22.3% | 38.4% | 0.63 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.1% | 13.2% | 0.25 | 30.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 10.5% | 17.1% | 0.48 | 26.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 21.5% | 17.8% | 0.99 | 1.0% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.7% | 18.8% | 0.47 | 3.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 3.6% | 18.8% | 0.09 | 24.1% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 3.8% | 56.4% | 0.29 | 6.0% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with SFM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFM | 9.8% | 37.4% | 0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.3% | 14.7% | 0.36 | 31.2% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.8% | 17.9% | 0.66 | 25.4% |
| Gold (GLD) | 13.9% | 15.9% | 0.73 | 2.3% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.1% | 17.6% | 0.38 | 5.1% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 5.4% | 20.7% | 0.23 | 20.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 68.1% | 66.9% | 1.07 | 6.5% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 2/19/2026 | -0.5% | 11.6% | 20.6% |
| 10/29/2025 | -26.1% | -23.7% | -17.9% |
| 7/30/2025 | -4.1% | -4.6% | -10.5% |
| 2/20/2025 | -15.6% | -15.9% | -16.1% |
| 10/30/2024 | 8.1% | 18.5% | 30.0% |
| 7/29/2024 | 13.3% | 12.2% | 21.2% |
| 2/22/2024 | 10.9% | 16.1% | 18.3% |
| 10/31/2023 | -3.1% | -6.1% | -4.0% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 10 | 12 | 15 |
| # Negative | 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Median Positive | 9.5% | 12.7% | 16.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.8% | -5.4% | -10.5% |
| Max Positive | 13.5% | 18.5% | 36.3% |
| Max Negative | -26.1% | -23.7% | -17.9% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2025 | 02/19/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/29/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 04/30/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/30/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 07/29/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/01/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/22/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/31/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 08/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/01/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 03/02/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 11/08/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 08/03/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/04/2022 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]
Latest: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/19/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Comparable store sales growth | -3.0% | -2.0% | -1.0% | Lower New | |||
| Q1 2026 Diluted earnings per share | 1.66 | 1.68 | 1.7 | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Net sales growth | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | -42.1% | -4.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 9.5% for 2025 |
| 2026 Comparable store sales growth | -1.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | Lower New | |||
| 2026 EBIT | 675.00 Mil | 685.00 Mil | 695.00 Mil | Higher New | |||
| 2026 Diluted earnings per share | 5.28 | 5.36 | 5.44 | 44.5% | Raised | Guidance: 3.71 for 2025 | |
| 2026 Unit growth | 4000.0% | Higher New | |||||
| 2026 Capital expenditures | 280.00 Mil | 295.00 Mil | 310.00 Mil | -13.2% | Lowered | Guidance: 340.00 Mil for 2025 | |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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