Tearsheet

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0  Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.1%
Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -489 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -23%
1  Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -84%
Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 289%
2   Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 140%
3   Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -175%
4   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -59%
5   High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 117%
6   Short seller report
0 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -4.1%
1 Weak multi-year price returns
3Y Excs Rtn is -84%
2 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -489 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -23%
3 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 289%
4 Stock price has recently run up significantly
6M Rtn6 month market price return is 140%
5 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -175%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -59%
7 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 117%
8 Short seller report

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

RUN Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RUN Return402%-51%-30%-18%-53%121%48%
Peers Return66%12%-6%15%19%130%455%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RUN Win Rate83%17%50%50%33%70% 
Peers Win Rate63%62%43%55%45%72% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RUN Max Drawdown-39%-55%-48%-63%-53%-39% 
Peers Max Drawdown-47%-14%-30%-13%-17%-22% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BE, AEIS, BDC, ENS, FELE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/6/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRUNS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-90.8%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven991.6%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-64.3%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven179.9%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven109 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-38.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven63.2%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven57 days120 days

Compare to BE, AEIS, BDC, ENS, FELE


In The Past

Sunrun's stock fell -90.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/8/2021. A -90.8% loss requires a 991.6% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Sunrun (RUN)

Better Bets than Sunrun (RUN)

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RUN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.2%-9.2%-9.2%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-1.6%-1.6%-8.2%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-8.4%-8.4%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.2%0.2%-0.8%
RUN_4302025_Short_Squeeze04302025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
192.0%196.4%-16.1%
RUN_9302024_Short_Squeeze09302024RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-67.6%-4.3%-68.6%
RUN_9302023_Short_Squeeze09302023RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
4.9%47.3%-29.6%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.2%-9.2%-9.2%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-1.6%-1.6%-8.2%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-1.9%-1.9%-1.9%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-8.4%-8.4%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
0.2%0.2%-0.8%
RUN_4302025_Short_Squeeze04302025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
192.0%196.4%-16.1%
RUN_9302024_Short_Squeeze09302024RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-67.6%-4.3%-68.6%
RUN_9302023_Short_Squeeze09302023RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
4.9%47.3%-29.6%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Sunrun

Financials

RUNBEAEISBDCENSFELEMedian
NameSunrun Bloom En.Advanced.Belden EnerSys Franklin. 
Mkt Price20.42136.86219.20119.84129.2695.15124.55
Mkt Cap4.732.28.24.74.84.24.8
Rev LTM2,1291,8191,7252,6613,7252,1102,120
Op Inc LTM-48990155297490264210
FCF LTM-3,716135153214327202178
FCF 3Y Avg-3,367-273119224325227171
CFO LTM-811180235369435245240
CFO 3Y Avg-793-203188356429269228

Growth & Margins

RUNBEAEISBDCENSFELEMedian
NameSunrun Bloom En.Advanced.Belden EnerSys Franklin. 
Rev Chg LTM3.3%44.5%17.2%13.4%6.2%5.1%9.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg4.1%21.8%0.4%1.8%1.8%2.1%1.9%
Rev Chg Q8.7%57.1%23.8%6.6%7.7%9.5%9.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM2.2%11.6%5.4%1.7%1.8%2.4%2.3%
Op Mgn LTM-23.0%4.9%9.0%11.2%13.2%12.5%10.1%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-29.4%-6.3%7.7%11.5%11.5%12.7%9.6%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.3%0.5%1.5%-0.1%0.1%0.3%0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM-38.1%9.9%13.6%13.9%11.7%11.6%11.6%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-35.5%-15.9%11.3%14.0%11.7%13.0%11.5%
FCF/Rev LTM-174.5%7.4%8.9%8.0%8.8%9.6%8.4%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-153.5%-20.8%7.1%8.8%8.8%11.0%8.0%

Valuation

RUNBEAEISBDCENSFELEMedian
NameSunrun Bloom En.Advanced.Belden EnerSys Franklin. 
Mkt Cap4.732.28.24.74.84.24.8
P/S2.217.74.81.81.32.02.1
P/EBIT-1.3412.548.716.011.121.618.8
P/E-1.82,105.756.820.814.329.925.3
P/CFO-5.8178.535.012.811.117.315.1
Total Yield-54.9%0.0%1.9%4.9%7.8%3.9%2.9%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.2%0.1%0.8%0.6%0.1%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-133.5%-11.8%2.5%5.0%8.1%5.2%3.8%
D/E3.00.00.10.30.30.10.2
Net D/E2.90.0-0.00.20.20.00.1

Returns

RUNBEAEISBDCENSFELEMedian
NameSunrun Bloom En.Advanced.Belden EnerSys Franklin. 
1M Rtn4.9%59.0%26.6%3.8%14.3%1.7%9.6%
3M Rtn70.2%271.9%49.7%3.3%37.8%2.2%43.8%
6M Rtn140.2%693.9%98.6%11.8%40.1%9.1%69.3%
12M Rtn71.6%1,147.6%86.4%-8.7%28.2%-12.3%49.9%
3Y Rtn-11.8%605.1%169.6%57.6%97.8%20.1%77.7%
1M Excs Rtn5.8%56.8%25.8%4.4%13.3%1.2%9.5%
3M Excs Rtn67.1%266.7%40.3%-4.3%30.4%-1.6%35.3%
6M Excs Rtn121.6%675.2%79.9%-6.8%21.4%-9.5%50.7%
12M Excs Rtn9.4%1,147.2%82.1%-14.3%16.6%-20.1%13.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-83.8%574.8%103.6%-2.8%23.3%-53.6%10.2%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Customer agreements1,077872725433345
Solar energy systems656914471270283
Product sales417424312168187
Incentives1101111015242
Total2,2602,3211,610922859


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity56,240,325
Short Interest: % Change Since 9302025-3.1%
Average Daily Volume10,670,775
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.27
Basic Shares Quantity229,167,000
Short % of Basic Shares24.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/6/202532.3%20.5%100.4%
2/27/2025-8.3%-13.1%-24.9%
11/7/2024-11.8%-5.9%-3.4%
8/6/202411.0%16.9%16.8%
5/8/20247.8%5.0%16.9%
2/21/2024-18.0%-24.3%-24.5%
11/1/202310.1%10.1%51.1%
8/2/20237.6%0.8%-12.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91110
# Negative121011
Median Positive10.1%5.1%16.8%
Median Negative-8.7%-10.6%-24.5%
Max Positive32.3%20.5%100.4%
Max Negative-18.0%-25.4%-49.6%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025806202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025507202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024227202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241107202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024806202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024508202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231101202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023802202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023503202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022222202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221102202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022803202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022504202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021217202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211104202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0STEELE JEANNAChief Legal & People Officer10172025Sell21.714,47597,1487,854,077Form
1STEELE JEANNAChief Legal & People Officer10132025Sell20.2521,037425,9997,416,846Form