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Sunrun (RUN)

Market Price (5/12/2026): $14.5 | Market Cap: $3.4 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products

Sunrun (RUN)

Market Price (5/12/2026): $14.5
Market Cap: $3.4 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Building Products

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%

Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more.

Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97%

Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -55 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.7%

Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 418%

Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.7%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -81%

High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 116%

Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24%

Short seller report

Key risks
RUN key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on government tax credits for its business model and [2] a substantial debt load coupled with significant profitability challenges.

0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 17%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 12%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 52%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -26%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Renewable Energy Transition, and Smart Grids & Grid Modernization. Themes include Solar Energy Generation, Battery Storage & Grid Modernization, Show more.
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -22%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -97%
5 Not profitable at operating income level
Op Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -55 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -1.7%
6 Debt is significant
Net D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 418%
7 Not cash flow generative
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -9.7%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -81%
8 High stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 116%
9 Significant short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 24%
10 Short seller report
11 Key risks
RUN key risks include [1] a heavy reliance on government tax credits for its business model and [2] a substantial debt load coupled with significant profitability challenges.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

Sunrun (RUN) stock has lost about 25% since 1/31/2026 because of the following key factors:

1. Sunrun's stock experienced a significant downturn, including a 35.1% plunge, following its Fourth Quarter 2025 earnings report on February 26, 2026, due to a pessimistic outlook for 2026. Management forecasted a decrease in aggregate subscriber value from $5.6 billion in 2025 to $5.0 billion in 2026 and a decline in expected cash generation from $377 million in 2025 to $350 million in 2026. This guidance included expectations for "slight declines in overall volumes" for 2026, contributing to investor apprehension.

2. The broader residential solar industry faced significant macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds. Higher interest rates increased financing costs for homeowners, while tariffs on solar imports raised equipment costs and squeezed margins. Additionally, the phasing out of federal homeowner tax credits (ITC) at the end of 2025 and the rapid reduction of federal subsidies for companies leasing residential solar systems impacted demand and forced Sunrun to pivot its sales strategy. Ohm Analytics projected a 22% decline in solar interconnections for the full year 2026, reflecting these industry-wide pressures.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The -23.8% change in RUN stock from 1/31/2026 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -43.6% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)13120265112026Change
Stock Price ($)19.0014.47-23.8%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,3173,17537.0%
P/S Multiple1.91.1-43.6%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)231235-1.5%
Cumulative Contribution-23.8%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

1/31/2026 to 5/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
RUN-23.8% 
Market (SPY)3.6%39.0%
Sector (XLI)6.1%31.2%

Fundamental Drivers

The -30.3% change in RUN stock from 10/31/2025 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -52.2% change in the company's P/S Multiple.
(LTM values as of)103120255112026Change
Stock Price ($)20.7614.47-30.3%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,1293,17549.1%
P/S Multiple2.21.1-52.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)229235-2.3%
Cumulative Contribution-30.3%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

10/31/2025 to 5/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
RUN-30.3% 
Market (SPY)5.5%41.6%
Sector (XLI)13.6%33.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 110.0% change in RUN stock from 4/30/2025 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a 55.8% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)43020255112026Change
Stock Price ($)6.8914.47110.0%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,0383,17555.8%
P/S Multiple0.81.142.0%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)223235-5.1%
Cumulative Contribution110.0%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2025 to 5/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
RUN110.0% 
Market (SPY)30.4%29.3%
Sector (XLI)35.2%24.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The -31.2% change in RUN stock from 4/30/2023 to 5/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -76.9% change in the company's P/E Multiple.
(LTM values as of)43020235112026Change
Stock Price ($)21.0414.47-31.2%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)2,3213,17536.8%
Net Income Margin (%)7.5%17.9%139.4%
P/E Multiple25.96.0-76.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)214235-9.0%
Cumulative Contribution-31.2%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

4/30/2023 to 5/11/2026
ReturnCorrelation
RUN-31.2% 
Market (SPY)78.7%28.5%
Sector (XLI)83.0%29.5%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
RUN Return-51%-30%-18%-53%99%-21%-79%
Peers Return8%13%-0%-17%23%1%25%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%8%97%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RUN Win Rate17%50%50%33%58%60% 
Peers Win Rate50%46%42%44%49%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%60% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RUN Max Drawdown-55%-48%-63%-53%-39%-38% 
Peers Max Drawdown-30%-41%-43%-51%-35%-21% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: TSLA, SPWR, FSLR, ENPH, SEDG.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 5/11/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

EventRUNS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-34.2%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven52.0%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven31 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-56.5%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven129.6%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven61 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-49.4%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven97.7%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven90 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-62.8%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven168.9%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven109 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-23.9%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven31.4%23.7%
  Time to Breakeven28 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-25.7%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven34.6%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven70 days6 days

Compare to TSLA, SPWR, FSLR, ENPH, SEDG

In The Past

Sunrun's stock fell -34.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 52.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

EventRUNS&P 500
2025 US Tariff Shock
  % Loss-34.2%-18.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven52.0%23.1%
  Time to Breakeven31 days79 days
Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock
  % Loss-56.5%-9.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven129.6%10.5%
  Time to Breakeven61 days24 days
2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening
  % Loss-49.4%-24.5%
  % Gain to Breakeven97.7%32.4%
  Time to Breakeven90 days427 days
2020 COVID-19 Crash
  % Loss-62.8%-33.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven168.9%50.9%
  Time to Breakeven109 days140 days
Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare
  % Loss-23.9%-19.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven31.4%23.7%
  Time to Breakeven28 days105 days
2016-2017 Trump Reflation Bond Selloff
  % Loss-25.7%-3.7%
  % Gain to Breakeven34.6%3.9%
  Time to Breakeven70 days6 days
2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare
  % Loss-51.0%-12.2%
  % Gain to Breakeven104.2%13.9%
  Time to Breakeven814 days62 days
2014-2016 Oil Price Collapse
  % Loss-52.8%-6.8%
  % Gain to Breakeven112.0%7.3%
  Time to Breakeven819 days15 days

Compare to TSLA, SPWR, FSLR, ENPH, SEDG

In The Past

Sunrun's stock fell -34.2% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 52.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Sunrun (RUN)

Sunrun Inc. engages in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems in the United States. It also sells solar energy systems and products, such as panels and racking; and solar leads generated to customers. In addition, the company offers battery storage along with solar energy systems. Its primary customers are residential homeowners. The company markets and sells its products through direct-to-consumer approach across online, retail, mass media, digital media, canvassing, field marketing, and referral channels, as well as its partner network. Sunrun Inc. was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Here are a few analogies for Sunrun:

  • Netflix for home solar energy: Sunrun provides homeowners with solar power, often through subscription-like leases and power purchase agreements, similar to how Netflix offers content through a subscription.
  • ADT for residential solar systems: Sunrun installs and maintains critical solar energy systems for homes, offering ongoing service much like ADT provides home security systems and monitoring.

AI Analysis | Feedback

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  • Residential Solar Energy Systems: Sunrun designs, develops, installs, owns, and maintains complete solar energy systems for residential homeowners.
  • Solar Energy System Products: The company sells individual solar energy system components and products, including panels and racking.
  • Battery Storage Systems: Sunrun offers battery storage solutions, typically integrated with its solar energy systems.
  • Solar Leads: Sunrun generates and sells qualified solar leads to other customers.
```

AI Analysis | Feedback

Sunrun (RUN) primarily serves residential homeowners. Its customer categories include:

  • Residential homeowners seeking to install new solar energy systems for their homes.
  • Residential homeowners interested in integrating battery storage solutions with their solar energy systems.
  • Residential homeowners who opt for long-term service agreements, including system ownership and maintenance, provided by Sunrun.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Major Suppliers for Sunrun (RUN):

  • Hanwha Q CELLS (Parent company: Hanwha Solutions, 009830.KS)
  • Enphase Energy (ENPH)
  • Tesla (TSLA)

AI Analysis | Feedback

Mary Powell, Chief Executive Officer

Mary Powell has served as Sunrun's Chief Executive Officer since August 2021 and as a member of its Board since 2018. Prior to joining Sunrun, she was the President and Chief Executive Officer of Green Mountain Power Corporation (GMP) for over a decade, from 2008 to 2019. At GMP, she led strategies that increased customer satisfaction and growth, and positioned the company as a leader in energy transformation. She also held executive roles in the banking industry and state government before joining GMP in 1998. Ms. Powell currently serves on the board of directors of CGI Inc. and previously served on the boards of Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc. and Énergir.

Danny Abajian, Chief Financial Officer

Danny Abajian has served as Sunrun's Chief Financial Officer since May 2022. He has held various leadership roles within Sunrun's Project Finance organization since July 2010, including Senior Vice President, Vice President, Senior Director, and Director. Before joining Sunrun, Mr. Abajian was an investment banker, serving as an associate at Barclays Capital and an analyst and associate at BNP Paribas from July 2005 to July 2010.

Lynn Jurich, Co-Executive Chair and Co-founder

Lynn Jurich co-founded Sunrun in 2007, pioneering the residential solar-as-a-service model. She served as Sunrun's Chief Executive Officer from 2014 until August 2021, and previously held roles as President and Co-CEO. She oversaw Sunrun's initial public offering in 2015. Before co-founding Sunrun, Jurich was an associate at Summit Partners, a growth equity firm, where she evaluated business models and executed investments in financial services and technology.

Edward Fenster, Co-Executive Chair and Co-founder

Edward Fenster co-founded Sunrun in 2007. He previously served as CEO from 2008 to 2012 and Co-CEO from 2012 to 2014, and was appointed Executive Chairman in March 2014, now serving as Co-Executive Chair. At Sunrun, he focuses on finance, fleet operations, legal, and regulatory affairs, and has been instrumental in securing project financing. Before Sunrun, Mr. Fenster was Director of Corporate Development at Asurion Corporation and worked at The Blackstone Group, a private equity firm, where he completed over $10 billion in private equity and mergers and acquisitions transactions.

Paul Dickson, President and Chief Revenue Officer

Paul Dickson has served as Sunrun's Chief Revenue Officer since January 2022 and President since April 2024. He joined Sunrun in October 2020 through the acquisition of Vivint Solar, Inc., where he was Chief Revenue Officer from September 2016. Prior to that, he served as Vivint Solar, Inc.'s Senior Vice President of Operations and Vice President of Finance and Capital Markets. Mr. Dickson was part of Vivint Solar Inc.'s founding team.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to Sunrun's business are primarily driven by changes in the regulatory and policy landscape, its significant debt and cash burn, and intense competition within the residential solar market.

  1. Regulatory and Policy Changes: Sunrun faces substantial risk from shifts in government incentives and policies, notably the upcoming expiration of the 25D tax credit at the end of 2025. This expiration is anticipated to potentially contract the residential solar market in 2026, directly impacting demand for Sunrun's installations. Uncertainties surrounding the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and other policy changes can also significantly alter its business model and financial projections. Furthermore, legislative changes, such as those in California assigning responsibility for virtual power plants to utilities, could disadvantage Sunrun. Changes in utility rate designs and valuation of exported electricity also pose ongoing risks to the company's offerings.
  2. High Debt Levels and Cash Burn: Sunrun operates with a highly leveraged balance sheet, evidenced by a debt-to-equity ratio that has been reported around 4.84 to 4.93, and in some analyses, as high as 310%. The company has incurred significant cash burn, with reports indicating hundreds of millions in negative free cash flow over the last year, and its substantial debt load (over $14 billion) raises concerns about its ability to meet interest payments. Its reliance on tax equity financing, closely tied to tax credits, could become more challenging and potentially lead to higher capital costs. Analyst concerns have also been raised regarding Sunrun's ability to continuously offload its Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) assets, with a potential "liquidity event" if access to such financing mechanisms diminishes or deteriorates. The company's Altman Z-Score suggests a potential bankruptcy risk.
  3. Intense Competition and Customer Acquisition Costs: The residential solar market is characterized by fierce competition from a variety of players, including other large installers, smaller local companies, and traditional utility providers. This competitive environment can lead to pricing pressures, potential market share erosion, and reduced profitability for Sunrun. Additionally, as the market matures and becomes more crowded, customer acquisition costs are rising, which places further pressure on Sunrun's margins and necessitates increased investment in marketing and sales efforts to maintain its leading position. Rapid technological advancements in solar panel efficiency and energy storage solutions also mean Sunrun must continually innovate to remain competitive.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The clear emerging threat for Sunrun is the increasing proliferation and competitiveness of community solar programs. These programs allow homeowners and renters to subscribe to a share of an off-site solar farm and receive credits on their utility bills, effectively accessing solar energy benefits without needing to install panels or battery storage on their own property. This model directly threatens Sunrun's core business of designing, developing, installing, and maintaining rooftop residential solar energy systems and battery storage.

Community solar offers several advantages that could disrupt the market for rooftop installations:

  • It removes the need for significant upfront investment and complex installation processes on individual homes, including permitting, structural considerations, and roof suitability.
  • It expands access to solar energy to a broader demographic, including renters, apartment dwellers, and homeowners with shaded roofs, older roofs, or HOA restrictions, who might not be viable customers for rooftop solar.
  • As these programs scale, they could potentially offer lower costs due to economies of scale for larger installations, making them more financially attractive than individual rooftop systems in certain markets.

This shift represents a different model for homeowners to obtain solar energy benefits, similar to how streaming services offered a different, often more convenient and accessible, model for consuming entertainment compared to physical media rentals.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Sunrun Inc. (RUN) operates within the United States residential solar and energy storage markets. The addressable markets for its main products and services, residential solar energy systems and battery storage, are significant within this region.

Residential Solar Energy Systems Market (U.S.)

The U.S. residential solar PV market was estimated at USD 7.45 billion in 2023. This market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.4% from 2024 to 2030. Another estimate indicates the U.S. residential solar PV market was worth over USD 6.3 billion in 2024. The market size is forecast to increase by USD 10.93 billion, at a CAGR of 12.3% between 2024 and 2029. In terms of installations, the residential segment installed 4,647 MWdc of solar capacity in 2025.

Residential Battery Storage Market (U.S.)

Estimates for the U.S. residential energy storage market show varying figures, reflecting different analyses of this growing sector:
  • One analysis valued the U.S. residential energy storage market at approximately USD 137.2 million in 2024, with projections to reach USD 603.6 million by 2030, advancing at a CAGR of 28.0% from 2024 to 2030.
  • Another report indicated the U.S. battery energy storage system market size was valued at USD 3.62 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach around USD 36.47 billion by 2035, growing at a CAGR of 25.99% from 2026 to 2035.
Residential home battery capacity increased by more than 50% in 2025. The residential energy storage sector added 3.1 gigawatt-hours of new capacity in 2025. Sunrun itself installed nearly 50% of the U.S. residential battery storage capacity in 2025, accounting for approximately 1.5 gigawatt-hours of installations during that period.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Sunrun (RUN) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next two to three years through several key strategies:

  1. Increased Adoption of Solar-Plus-Storage Solutions: Sunrun is focusing on integrated solar-plus-storage systems, which are attracting new, higher-value customers and boosting revenue. The company achieved a record storage attachment rate of 69% in the first quarter of 2025, increasing to 71% by year-end 2025. This emphasis on a "storage-first" approach is a significant factor in the company's growth.
  2. Growth in Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) and Grid Services: Sunrun is actively scaling its grid services business through Virtual Power Plants (VPPs). Customer participation in Sunrun's distributed power plant programs grew more than fivefold in 2025, reaching over 106,000 customers across 17 programs. This initiative generates revenue as utilities compensate Sunrun for managing and operating these distributed power plants, with customers earning over $17 million in 2025 for participation.
  3. Expansion in Key Markets and Geographic Penetration: A core component of Sunrun's growth strategy involves expanding its reach in key markets and increasing its penetration in both existing and new U.S. states. This strategy leverages its established infrastructure and brand recognition.
  4. New Product Innovation: The introduction of innovative customer products, such as Sunrun Flex, a solar-plus-storage subscription, demonstrates Sunrun's commitment to adapting to evolving household energy needs. The company also mentions exploring vehicle-to-home grid support technology.
  5. Focus on Direct Business Growth and Higher-Margin Offerings: Sunrun anticipates growing its direct business by high single- to low double-digits in 2026. The company is strategically prioritizing its direct sales channels and proactively reducing affiliate partner volumes by over 40% for 2026 to achieve higher margins within its direct business. This margin-focused strategy aims for strong upfront unit margins.

AI Analysis | Feedback

Capital Allocation Decisions for Sunrun (RUN) over the Last 3-5 Years

Share Repurchases

  • Sunrun Inc. has not made any significant share repurchases over the last 3-5 years.
  • The company indicated that it would consider additional capital allocation options, including potential share buybacks, once its debt targets are met.

Share Issuance

  • Sunrun's shares outstanding increased by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025 to 234 million shares.
  • The company has shares reserved for future issuance under its equity compensation plans, including those assumed from the Vivint Solar acquisition.
  • Net proceeds from employee stock award activities have been relatively small, reflecting minor issuances related to compensation.

Inbound Investments

  • In 2025, Sunrun secured $2.7 billion in tax equity and $2.8 billion in nonrecourse debt.
  • The company entered into new joint venture partnerships, notably with Hannon Armstrong, which committed up to $500 million over an 18-month period to finance residential solar and storage assets.
  • Sunrun raised over $1.5 billion in senior and subordinated non-recourse debt financings in the third quarter of 2025 through securitizations.

Capital Expenditures

  • Sunrun's capital expenditures were $8.58 million in 2021, $18 million in 2022, and $21 million in 2023.
  • Capital expenditures decreased significantly to $1.57 million in 2024 and $1.78 million in 2025.
  • These expenditures are primarily focused on the origination and installation of solar energy systems, battery storage, and expanding its distributed power plant network.

Better Bets vs. Sunrun (RUN)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleDate
0DASHBOARDS 
1Sunrun Stock (+7.2%): Sector Rallies on Gov't Investment News03/11/2026
2Sunrun Stock (-7.8%): Fresh Analyst Downgrade Cites Weak 2026 Guidance03/04/2026
3Sunrun Stock (-35%) : 2026 Guidance Miss Overshadows Q4 Beat02/28/2026
4Sunrun Stock (+12%): VPP Scale-Up Ignites a Mechanical Squeeze02/05/2026
5RUN Stock Surges 28% With A 6-day Spree On Analyst Buy Ratings01/29/2026
6RUN Stock Surges 23% With A 5-day Spree On Bullish EPS Revision01/28/2026
7Sunrun Earnings Notes12/28/2026
8Sunrun Stock (+11%): NRG VPP Deal + Tax Credit Rush Ignites Squeeze12/23/2025
9ARTICLES 
10Sunrun Stock (+7.2%): Sector Rallies on Gov’t Investment News03/11/2026
11Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High10/10/2025
12Market Movers | Winners: PGEN, RUN, UP | Losers: NUTX, GTN-A, AMAT08/16/2025
13How Low Can Sunrun Stock Go?07/11/2025
14Market Movers | Winners: SANA, UP, QS | Losers: RUN, AEVA, HLIT07/09/2025

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to RUN.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_4302026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy04302026GEOGEODip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		0.0%0.0%0.0%
RUN_4302026_Short_Squeeze04302026RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.		0.0%0.0%0.0%
RSG_4172026_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04172026RSGRepublic ServicesMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple		0.8%0.8%-1.1%
VRSK_4102026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield04102026VRSKVerisk AnalyticsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		12.3%12.3%0.0%
ENPH_4102026_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy04102026ENPHEnphase EnergyDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin		5.7%5.7%0.0%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.		-38.7%-38.7%-45.4%
RUN_4302025_Short_Squeeze04302025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.		192.0%84.8%-16.1%
RUN_9302024_Short_Squeeze09302024RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.		-67.6%-4.3%-68.6%
RUN_9302023_Short_Squeeze09302023RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.		4.9%47.3%-29.6%

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Financials

RUNTSLASPWRFSLRENPHSEDGMedian
NameSunrun Tesla SunPower First So.Enphase .SolarEdg. 
Mkt Price14.47445.001.14233.2737.6541.7939.72
Mkt Cap3.41,439.10.125.04.92.54.2
Rev LTM3,17597,8793005,4191,4001,2752,287
Op Inc LTM-555,297-271,721104-17538
FCF LTM-2,5777,000-151,66814578111
FCF 3Y Avg-3,0945,054-4456341-2206
CFO LTM-30716,528-152,45019195143
CFO 3Y Avg-51914,783-431,232401-124179

Growth & Margins

RUNTSLASPWRFSLRENPHSEDGMedian
NameSunrun Tesla SunPower First So.Enphase .SolarEdg. 
Rev Chg LTM52.4%2.3%175.9%27.3%-1.6%39.2%33.2%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg12.8%4.5%-24.7%-18.0%-18.0%4.5%
Rev Chg Q43.2%15.8%-10.1%23.6%-20.6%41.5%19.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM7.4%3.2%-2.9%3.8%-5.0%7.7%3.5%
Op Inc Chg LTM89.2%-25.2%60.7%25.3%-32.1%87.6%43.0%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg38.2%-24.0%-231.9%-42.3%-185.0%-24.0%
Op Mgn LTM-1.7%5.4%-9.0%31.8%7.4%-13.7%1.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-20.8%6.9%-43.9%31.7%10.9%-59.4%-7.0%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM2.5%0.3%-0.4%1.2%-3.8%5.7%0.7%
CFO/Rev LTM-9.7%16.9%-5.1%45.2%13.6%7.4%10.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-23.1%15.4%-40.8%26.2%25.7%-5.8%4.8%
FCF/Rev LTM-81.2%7.2%-5.1%30.8%10.4%6.1%6.6%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-133.3%5.2%-41.9%-2.3%21.9%-12.5%-7.4%

Valuation

RUNTSLASPWRFSLRENPHSEDGMedian
NameSunrun Tesla SunPower First So.Enphase .SolarEdg. 
Mkt Cap3.41,439.10.125.04.92.54.2
P/S1.114.70.44.63.52.02.8
P/Op Inc-62.0271.7-4.314.647.7-14.55.1
P/EBIT-74.5249.2-6.614.233.6-7.83.8
P/E6.0372.6-2.615.036.6-6.910.5
P/CFO-11.187.1-7.610.225.926.718.1
Total Yield16.7%0.3%-38.9%6.6%2.7%-14.4%1.5%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-152.4%0.5%--0.7%3.7%-9.7%-0.7%
D/E4.40.01.60.00.10.20.2
Net D/E4.2-0.01.5-0.1-0.1-0.0-0.0

Returns

RUNTSLASPWRFSLRENPHSEDGMedian
NameSunrun Tesla SunPower First So.Enphase .SolarEdg. 
1M Rtn9.0%27.5%-1.7%14.6%20.7%0.1%11.8%
3M Rtn-29.1%6.6%-32.1%5.0%-25.1%13.6%-10.1%
6M Rtn-21.1%-0.1%-32.5%-14.4%14.6%-7.9%-11.2%
12M Rtn54.3%49.2%-37.0%65.8%-25.8%110.6%51.7%
3Y Rtn-12.0%164.9%-30.1%0.7%-77.5%-86.2%-21.0%
1M Excs Rtn0.2%18.8%-10.5%5.9%12.0%-8.7%3.1%
3M Excs Rtn-35.5%0.2%-38.6%-1.4%-31.6%7.1%-16.5%
6M Excs Rtn-39.4%-10.5%-38.2%-24.5%10.5%-2.8%-17.5%
12M Excs Rtn39.4%25.4%-65.7%43.5%-54.1%97.6%32.4%
3Y Excs Rtn-97.0%93.5%-112.6%-46.6%-158.3%-167.7%-104.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20252024202320222021
Customer agreements1,3881,077872725433
Product sales328417424312168
Energy systems205656914471270
Incentives11711011110152
Total2,0382,2602,3211,610922


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$14.47 
Market Cap ($ Bil)3.4 
First Trading Date08/05/2015 
Distance from 52W High-32.4% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$12.74$16.44
DMA Trendupdown
Distance from DMA13.6%-12.0%
 3M1YR
Volatility98.8%114.8%
Downside Capture1.871.03
Upside Capture149.49196.45
Correlation (SPY)37.2%28.6%
RUN Betas & Captures as of 4/30/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta2.842.392.582.762.731.81
Up Beta3.743.593.052.804.051.75
Down Beta3.243.932.332.684.181.52
Up Capture77%127%152%278%277%714%
Bmk +ve Days15223166141428
Stock +ve Days8193059127354
Down Capture268%167%300%236%141%113%
Bmk -ve Days4183056108321
Stock -ve Days13233365123394

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with RUN
RUN37.9%113.8%0.86-
Sector ETF (XLI)30.6%15.6%1.5124.7%
Equity (SPY)28.1%12.5%1.7831.0%
Gold (GLD)42.9%26.9%1.3014.9%
Commodities (DBC)48.6%18.0%2.14-2.3%
Real Estate (VNQ)13.6%13.5%0.7016.5%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-22.4%41.7%-0.5017.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with RUN
RUN-23.1%90.5%0.13-
Sector ETF (XLI)12.8%17.4%0.5834.8%
Equity (SPY)12.9%17.1%0.5937.1%
Gold (GLD)21.2%17.9%0.9612.6%
Commodities (DBC)13.5%19.1%0.589.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)3.6%18.8%0.0940.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)8.5%56.0%0.3619.8%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with RUN
RUN3.9%78.1%0.41-
Sector ETF (XLI)14.0%20.0%0.6236.6%
Equity (SPY)15.0%17.9%0.7240.0%
Gold (GLD)13.4%15.9%0.7011.4%
Commodities (DBC)9.5%17.7%0.4515.6%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.7%0.2436.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)68.1%66.9%1.0714.2%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date4302026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity56.1 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 41520265.1%
Average Daily Volume8.9 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest6.3 days
Basic Shares Quantity234.6 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares23.9%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/26/2026-35.1%-42.3%-38.3%
11/6/2025-16.1%-7.6%-12.5%
8/6/202532.3%20.5%100.4%
2/27/2025-8.3%-13.1%-24.9%
11/7/2024-11.8%-5.9%-3.4%
8/6/202411.0%16.9%16.8%
5/8/20247.8%5.0%16.9%
2/21/2024-18.0%-24.3%-24.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive91010
# Negative121111
Median Positive10.1%7.6%16.8%
Median Negative-9.9%-13.1%-24.5%
Max Positive32.3%20.5%100.4%
Max Negative-35.1%-42.3%-38.3%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
03/31/202605/06/202610-Q
12/31/202502/26/202610-K
09/30/202511/06/202510-Q
06/30/202508/06/202510-Q
03/31/202505/07/202510-Q
12/31/202402/27/202510-K
09/30/202411/07/202410-Q
06/30/202408/06/202410-Q
03/31/202405/08/202410-Q
12/31/202302/21/202410-K
09/30/202311/01/202310-Q
06/30/202308/02/202310-Q
03/31/202305/03/202310-Q
12/31/202202/22/202310-K
09/30/202211/02/202210-Q
06/30/202208/03/202210-Q

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 5/6/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q2 2026 Aggregate Subscriber Value1.10 Bil1.15 Bil1.20 Bil  Higher New
Q2 2026 Contracted Net Value Creation100.00 Mil150.00 Mil200.00 Mil  Higher New
2026 Aggregate Subscriber Value4.80 Bil5.00 Bil5.20 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 5.00 Bil for 2026
2026 Contracted Net Value Creation650.00 Mil850.00 Mil1.05 Bil0 AffirmedGuidance: 850.00 Mil for 2026
2026 Cash Generation250.00 Mil350.00 Mil450.00 Mil0 AffirmedGuidance: 350.00 Mil for 2026

Prior: Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/26/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2026 Aggregate Subscriber Value850.00 Mil900.00 Mil950.00 Mil-39.2% Lower NewGuidance: 1.48 Bil for Q4 2025
Q1 2026 Contracted Net Value Creation25.00 Mil75.00 Mil125.00 Mil-77.4% Lower NewGuidance: 332.00 Mil for Q4 2025
2026 Aggregate Subscriber Value4.80 Bil5.00 Bil5.20 Bil-14.5% Lower NewGuidance: 5.85 Bil for 2025
2026 Contracted Net Value Creation650.00 Mil850.00 Mil1.05 Bil-26.1% Lower NewGuidance: 1.15 Bil for 2025
2026 Cash Generation250.00 Mil350.00 Mil450.00 Mil0 Same NewGuidance: 350.00 Mil for 2025

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1Jurich, Lynn MichelleDirectSell504202612.8950,000644,5106,547,538Form
2Barak, MariaChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell410202613.678,039109,879997,280Form
3Barak, MariaChief Accounting OfficerDirectSell408202613.254,64161,4801,073,050Form
4Abajian, DannyChief Financial OfficerDirectSell408202613.25132,9531,761,4015,725,346Form
5Dickson, Paul SPres. & Chief Revenue OfficerDirectSell408202613.25127,6731,691,5279,368,642Form

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