Sunrun (RUN)
Market Price (10/20/2025): $19.6 | Market Cap: $4.5 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Building Products
Sunrun (RUN)
Market Price (10/20/2025): $19.6Market Cap: $4.5 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Building Products
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -102% | Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -489 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -23% | |
Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 302% | ||
Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 185% | ||
Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -175% | ||
Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -62% | ||
High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 117% | ||
Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25% |
Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -102% |
Not profitable at operating income levelOp Inc LTMOperating Income, Last Twelve Months is -489 Mil, Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is -23% |
Debt is significantNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is 302% |
Stock price has recently run up significantly6M Rtn6 month market price return is 185% |
Not cash flow generativeCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -38%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -175% |
Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -62% |
High stock price volatilityVol 12M is 117% |
Significant short interestShort Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 25% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
RUN Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
RUN Return | 402% | -51% | -30% | -18% | -53% | 111% | 41% |
Peers Return | 66% | 12% | -6% | 15% | 19% | 100% | 382% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 106% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
RUN Win Rate | 83% | 17% | 50% | 50% | 33% | 67% | |
Peers Win Rate | 63% | 62% | 43% | 55% | 45% | 71% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
RUN Max Drawdown | -39% | -55% | -48% | -63% | -53% | -39% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -47% | -14% | -30% | -13% | -17% | -22% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: BE, AEIS, BDC, ENS, FELE.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | RUN | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -90.8% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 991.6% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -64.3% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 179.9% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 109 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -38.7% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 63.2% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 57 days | 120 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Sunrun's stock fell -90.8% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/8/2021. A -90.8% loss requires a 991.6% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Title | Topic | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
DASHBOARDS | |||
Sunrun Earnings Notes | |||
Sunrun Stock Up 20%, Buy Or Wait? | Return | ||
Does Sunrun Stock Lead the Pack? | Peer Comparison | ||
Sunrun (RUN) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
Sunrun (RUN) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
Sunrun (RUN) Tax Expense Comparison | Financials | ||
Sunrun (RUN) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
Sunrun (RUN) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
Sunrun (RUN) EBITDA Comparison | Financials | ||
Sunrun (RUN) Debt Comparison | Financials | ||
ARTICLES | |||
Small Cap Stocks Trading At 52-Week High | October 10th, 2025 | ||
Market Movers | Winners: PGEN, RUN, UP | Losers: NUTX, GTN-A, AMAT | August 16th, 2025 | ||
How Low Can Sunrun Stock Go? | July 11th, 2025 | ||
Market Movers | Winners: SANA, UP, QS | Losers: RUN, AEVA, HLIT | July 9th, 2025 | ||
7/7/2025 Market Movers | Winners: COGT, SLSR, RUN | Losers: CORZ, APGE, LVWR | July 8th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to RUN. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | FCN | FTI Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -6.2% |
09122025 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.7% | -4.7% | -7.3% |
08312025 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.9% | -7.9% | -8.5% |
08312025 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.6% |
08312025 | BWXT | BWX Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 25.4% | 25.4% | -1.2% |
04302025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 183.2% | 183.2% | -16.1% |
09302024 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -67.6% | -4.3% | -68.6% |
09302023 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 4.9% | 47.3% | -29.6% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | FCN | FTI Consulting | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -5.8% | -5.8% | -6.2% |
09122025 | ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.7% | -4.7% | -7.3% |
08312025 | EFX | Equifax | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -7.9% | -7.9% | -8.5% |
08312025 | UHAL | U-Haul | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -3.6% | -3.6% | -5.6% |
08312025 | BWXT | BWX Technologies | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 25.4% | 25.4% | -1.2% |
04302025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 183.2% | 183.2% | -16.1% |
09302024 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -67.6% | -4.3% | -68.6% |
09302023 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | 4.9% | 47.3% | -29.6% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Sunrun
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 112.00 |
Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
Rev LTM | 2,095 |
Op Inc LTM | 188 |
FCF LTM | 128 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 167 |
CFO LTM | 221 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 221 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 4.9% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 2.7% |
Rev Chg Q | 12.7% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.9% |
Op Mgn LTM | 9.4% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 9.6% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.7% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 9.3% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.4% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 5.6% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 7.1% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 4.6 |
P/S | 2.1 |
P/EBIT | 17.0 |
P/E | 22.9 |
P/CFO | 17.9 |
Total Yield | 3.0% |
Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.8% |
D/E | 0.2 |
Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 10.1% |
3M Rtn | 35.5% |
6M Rtn | 84.4% |
12M Rtn | 26.6% |
3Y Rtn | 96.3% |
1M Excs Rtn | 10.4% |
3M Excs Rtn | 30.2% |
6M Excs Rtn | 58.3% |
12M Excs Rtn | 10.3% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 12.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
8/6/2025 | 32.3% | 20.5% | 100.4% |
2/27/2025 | -8.3% | -13.1% | -24.9% |
11/7/2024 | -11.8% | -5.9% | -3.4% |
8/6/2024 | 11.0% | 16.9% | 16.8% |
5/8/2024 | 7.8% | 5.0% | 16.9% |
2/21/2024 | -18.0% | -24.3% | -24.5% |
11/1/2023 | 10.1% | 10.1% | 51.1% |
8/2/2023 | 7.6% | 0.8% | -12.4% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 9 | 11 | 10 |
# Negative | 12 | 10 | 11 |
Median Positive | 10.1% | 5.1% | 16.8% |
Median Negative | -8.7% | -10.6% | -24.5% |
Max Positive | 32.3% | 20.5% | 100.4% |
Max Negative | -18.0% | -25.4% | -49.6% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 8062025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 5072025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2272025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 11072024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 8062024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 5082024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 11012023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 8022023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 5032023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2222023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 11022022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 5042022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2172022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 11042021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Jurich Lynn Michelle | 9102025 | Sell | 16.92 | 490 | 8,291 | 16,082,726 | Form | |
1 | Dickson Paul S. | Pres. & Chief Revenue Officer | 9102025 | Sell | 16.92 | 2,577 | 43,613 | 11,448,528 | Form |
2 | Abajian Danny | Chief Financial Officer | 9102025 | Sell | 16.93 | 2,180 | 36,912 | 7,373,487 | Form |
3 | STEELE JEANNA | Chief Legal & People Officer | 9102025 | Sell | 16.93 | 1,433 | 24,263 | 7,004,443 | Form |
4 | Powell Mary | Chief Executive Officer | 9102025 | Sell | 16.93 | 3,142 | 53,197 | 15,039,532 | Form |
External Quote Links
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