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Royal Caribbean (RCL)


Market Price (11/16/2025): $252.28 | Market Cap: $68.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Royal Caribbean (RCL)


Market Price (11/16/2025): $252.28
Market Cap: $68.6 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%
  Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 3.9x
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
  Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 53%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 6.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.0 Bil
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
  
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods.
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 6.4%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 26%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 36%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 12%, CFO LTM is 6.3 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.0 Bil
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 44%
4 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Experience Economy & Premiumization. Themes include Travel & Leisure Tech, Experiential Retail, and Luxury Consumer Goods.
5 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 3.9x
6 Valuation getting more expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is 53%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

RCL Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

Below are the key points highlighting why Royal Caribbean (RCL) stock moved by -20.2% between July 31, 2025, and November 15, 2025.

1. Analyst Downgrades and Revised Price Targets: Multiple financial analysts lowered their ratings or price targets for Royal Caribbean due to concerns over demand growth and future yield forecasts. Truist, for instance, downgraded RCL from "Buy" to "Hold" on July 21, 2025, citing a significant slowdown in year-over-year demand growth compared to the prior year. This was followed by Wall Street Zen downgrading the stock to "Hold" on November 1, 2025, and UBS and BofA Securities reducing their price targets in mid-November, reflecting revised net yield forecasts and fourth-quarter earnings guidance that fell below market expectations.

2. Q3 2025 Revenue Miss: Despite reporting an earnings per share (EPS) beat for the third quarter of 2025 on October 28, 2025, Royal Caribbean's quarterly revenue of $5.14 billion missed the consensus analyst estimate of $5.16 billion. This revenue shortfall, even with a strong EPS, contributed to a notable pre-market stock decline of 7.65% on the day the earnings were announced.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
RCL Return-44%3%-36%162%79%11%94%
Peers Return-13%-4%-35%64%4%-6%-12%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%14%108%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
RCL Win Rate33%50%58%67%67%60% 
Peers Win Rate52%47%38%50%52%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
RCL Max Drawdown-83%-14%-59%-1%-11%-23% 
Peers Max Drawdown-62%-26%-44%-5%-35%-39% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: CCL, EXPE, H, NCLH, UOKA. See RCL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/14/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventRCLS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-67.7%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven210.0%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven342 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-83.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven504.8%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven1463 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-33.7%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven50.8%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven389 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-88.0%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven733.5%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven659 days1480 days

Compare to CCL, EXPE, H, NCLH, UOKA


In The Past

Royal Caribbean's stock fell -67.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 6/2/2021. A -67.7% loss requires a 210.0% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Royal Caribbean (RCL)

Better Bets than Royal Caribbean (RCL)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to RCL. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.8%-5.8%-5.8%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-1.6%-1.6%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.2%-3.2%-3.2%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%
RCL_2292020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02292020RCLRoyal CaribbeanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.9%17.1%-72.0%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
LRN_10312025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10312025LRNStrideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-5.8%-5.8%-5.8%
DECK_10312025_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE10312025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap
1.6%1.6%-2.4%
ATGE_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025ATGEAdtalem Global EducationQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-1.6%-1.6%-5.9%
GNTX_10242025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10242025GNTXGentexDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.2%-3.2%-3.2%
LNW_10172025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10172025LNWLight & WonderDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
12.4%12.4%-6.2%
RCL_2292020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy02292020RCLRoyal CaribbeanDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.9%17.1%-72.0%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Royal Caribbean

Financials

RCLCCLEXPEHNCLHUOKAMedian
NameRoyal Ca.Carnival Expedia Hyatt Ho.Norwegia.MDJM  
Mkt Price252.8726.02264.66152.3018.292.6689.16
Mkt Cap68.834.232.714.58.2-32.7
Rev LTM17,43726,22914,3706,9149,693-14,370
Op Inc LTM4,6054,3091,9774491,589-1,977
FCF LTM2,0352,9142,998107-1,036-2,035
FCF 3Y Avg1,3691,1972,268397-339-1,197
CFO LTM6,3095,6113,7743012,030-3,774
CFO 3Y Avg5,0534,9293,0565901,974-3,056

Growth & Margins

RCLCCLEXPEHNCLHUOKAMedian
NameRoyal Ca.Carnival Expedia Hyatt Ho.Norwegia.MDJM  
Rev Chg LTM8.6%7.1%7.3%3.1%3.6%-7.1%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg37.7%45.9%8.3%9.1%43.8%-37.7%
Rev Chg Q5.2%3.3%8.7%9.6%4.7%-5.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM1.5%1.0%2.5%2.3%1.4%-1.5%
Op Mgn LTM26.4%16.4%13.8%6.5%16.4%-16.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg23.1%10.8%12.2%5.8%12.5%-12.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM0.0%0.2%1.6%0.0%0.4%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM36.2%21.4%26.3%4.4%20.9%-21.4%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg32.2%20.6%22.6%8.8%22.0%-22.0%
FCF/Rev LTM11.7%11.1%20.9%1.5%-10.7%-11.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg9.3%4.5%16.7%5.9%-3.6%-5.9%

Valuation

RCLCCLEXPEHNCLHUOKAMedian
NameRoyal Ca.Carnival Expedia Hyatt Ho.Norwegia.MDJM  
Mkt Cap68.834.232.714.58.2-32.7
P/S3.91.32.32.10.9-2.1
P/EBIT13.58.317.147.45.5-13.5
P/E16.912.923.6-165.312.4-12.9
P/CFO10.96.18.748.34.1-8.7
Total Yield6.4%7.7%4.7%-0.2%8.0%-6.4%
Dividend Yield0.5%0.0%0.5%0.4%0.0%-0.4%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg4.0%3.6%11.4%3.1%-3.3%-3.6%
D/E0.30.80.20.41.8-0.4
Net D/E0.30.80.00.41.7-0.4

Returns

RCLCCLEXPEHNCLHUOKAMedian
NameRoyal Ca.Carnival Expedia Hyatt Ho.Norwegia.MDJM  
1M Rtn-15.3%-7.8%23.9%5.6%-20.0%-16.0%-11.5%
3M Rtn-19.2%-12.6%27.8%8.0%-24.7%-1.7%-7.2%
6M Rtn-0.4%11.2%59.5%13.0%-5.1%15.5%12.1%
12M Rtn10.5%7.0%46.9%0.0%-30.8%-40.6%3.5%
3Y Rtn326.4%170.2%173.3%63.6%4.0%-93.7%116.9%
1M Excs Rtn-16.9%-9.3%22.3%4.0%-21.5%-17.6%-13.1%
3M Excs Rtn-26.8%-17.6%23.9%4.1%-30.0%-6.5%-12.1%
6M Excs Rtn-13.4%-1.8%46.5%0.0%-18.1%2.5%-0.9%
12M Excs Rtn-4.8%-6.7%33.8%-15.4%-46.9%-51.1%-11.1%
3Y Excs Rtn308.5%124.3%119.4%-8.2%-63.8%-173.0%55.6%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Single Segment13,9008,8401,5322,20910,951
Total13,9008,8401,5322,20910,951


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10312025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity10,862,830
Short Interest: % Change Since 101520252.9%
Average Daily Volume2,658,899
Days-to-Cover Short Interest4.09
Basic Shares Quantity272,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares4.0%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/28/2025-8.5%-13.3% 
7/29/2025-5.0%-10.3%0.5%
4/29/20250.1%5.8%15.9%
1/28/202512.0%10.2%3.1%
10/29/20243.2%0.4%20.1%
7/25/2024-7.6%-4.7%-4.0%
4/25/20240.5%0.6%7.0%
2/1/2024-0.4%-6.3%-2.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive161615
# Negative778
Median Positive6.0%7.2%20.1%
Median Negative-5.0%-7.6%-17.0%
Max Positive12.0%18.3%97.5%
Max Negative-8.5%-23.0%-31.9%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251028202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025429202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024214202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241029202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024725202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024425202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022729202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021301202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Sorensen Vagn O 8202025Sell330.0410,3003,399,4125,414,966Form
1Fain Richard D 8082025Sell310.656,9852,169,89049,488,409Form
2Lake Robert AlexanderSVP, CLO, Secretary & CCO6092025Sell275.002,500687,5006,585,150Form
3Fain Richard D 5202025Sell252.9615,7733,989,93842,812,974Form
4Montiel Maritza Gomez 5132025Sell242.491,500363,7353,507,375Form