PayPal (PYPL)
Market Price (10/14/2025): $68.18 | Market Cap: $66.1 BilSector: Financials | Industry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
PayPal (PYPL)
Market Price (10/14/2025): $68.18Market Cap: $66.1 BilSector: FinancialsIndustry: Transaction & Payment Processing Services
Investment Highlights
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, FCF Yield is 7.9% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105% | |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 6.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.3 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.0%, FCF Yield is 7.9% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 16%, CFO LTM is 6.1 Bil, FCF LTM is 5.3 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 38% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -35%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -105% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
PYPL Stock
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
PYPL Return | 117% | -19% | -62% | -14% | 39% | -19% | -35% |
Peers Return | 71% | 32% | -41% | 70% | 28% | 18% | 241% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
PYPL Win Rate | 67% | 50% | 25% | 58% | 58% | 56% | |
Peers Win Rate | 62% | 62% | 28% | 70% | 58% | 60% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
PYPL Max Drawdown | -21% | -23% | -64% | -29% | -9% | -33% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -21% | -7% | -47% | -1% | -11% | -18% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: GOOGL, AMZN, INTU, SHOP, V. See PYPL Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/13/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | PYPL | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -83.7% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 512.3% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -31.2% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 45.3% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 43 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -20.3% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 25.5% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 114 days | 120 days |
How Low Can It Go?
PayPal's stock fell -83.7% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 7/23/2021. A -83.7% loss requires a 512.3% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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About PayPal (PYPL)
PayPal Holdings, Inc. operates a technology platform that enables digital payments on behalf of merchants and consumers worldwide. It provides payment solutions under the PayPal, PayPal Credit, Braintree, Venmo, Xoom, Zettle, Hyperwallet, Honey, and Paidy names. The company's payments platform allows consumers to send and receive payments in approximately 200 markets and in approximately 100 currencies, withdraw funds to their bank accounts in 56 currencies, and hold balances in their PayPal accounts in 25 currencies. PayPal Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past trade ideas related to PYPL and Transaction & Payment Processing Services.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | HLNE | Hamilton Lane | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.3% | -12.3% | -12.3% |
09302025 | CNS | Cohen & Steers | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.6% |
09262025 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.4% | 1.4% | -2.1% |
09192025 | FDS | FactSet Research Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.1% | -2.1% | -4.9% |
09052025 | IBKR | Interactive Brokers | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 14.7% | 14.7% | 0.0% |
06302024 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 49.7% | 28.1% | -1.4% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | HLNE | Hamilton Lane | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.3% | -12.3% | -12.3% |
09302025 | CNS | Cohen & Steers | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | 0.8% | 0.8% | -1.6% |
09262025 | JKHY | Jack Henry & Associates | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.4% | 1.4% | -2.1% |
09192025 | FDS | FactSet Research Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -2.1% | -2.1% | -4.9% |
09052025 | IBKR | Interactive Brokers | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | 14.7% | 14.7% | 0.0% |
06302024 | PYPL | PayPal | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 49.7% | 28.1% | -1.4% |
See Trefis Trade Ideas for more.
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for PayPal
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 232.11 |
Mkt Cap | 416.1 |
Rev LTM | 35,592 |
Op Inc LTM | 16,012 |
FCF LTM | 9,782 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 12,558 |
CFO LTM | 14,846 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 13,516 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 12.3% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 11.4% |
Rev Chg Q | 14.0% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.3% |
Op Mgn LTM | 22.7% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 20.8% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 25.9% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 25.9% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 18.1% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 18.6% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 416.1 |
P/S | 8.9 |
P/EBIT | 26.5 |
P/E | 32.2 |
P/CFO | 24.5 |
Total Yield | 3.4% |
Dividend Yield | 0.2% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.3% |
D/E | 0.0 |
Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 1.5% |
3M Rtn | -2.2% |
6M Rtn | 15.8% |
12M Rtn | 20.5% |
3Y Rtn | 99.3% |
1M Excs Rtn | 0.5% |
3M Excs Rtn | -8.4% |
6M Excs Rtn | -8.5% |
12M Excs Rtn | 6.9% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 8.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
7/29/2025 | -8.7% | -13.1% | -10.3% |
4/29/2025 | 2.1% | 5.6% | 10.0% |
2/4/2025 | -13.2% | -12.6% | -22.4% |
10/29/2024 | -4.0% | -6.5% | 4.0% |
7/30/2024 | 8.6% | 2.6% | 21.5% |
4/30/2024 | 1.4% | -2.1% | -8.9% |
2/7/2024 | -11.2% | -6.9% | -6.7% |
11/1/2023 | 6.6% | 6.6% | 15.5% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 13 | 11 | 10 |
# Negative | 11 | 13 | 14 |
Median Positive | 4.3% | 6.6% | 10.4% |
Median Negative | -10.5% | -7.4% | -9.1% |
Max Positive | 14.0% | 13.4% | 21.6% |
Max Negative | -24.6% | -31.6% | -42.4% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 7292025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 4292025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2042025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 10292024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 7302024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 4302024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2082024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 11022023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 8032023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 5092023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2102023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 11042022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 8032022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 4282022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2032022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 11092021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Kereere Suzan | President, Global Markets | 8202025 | Sell | 69.31 | 3,832 | 265,596 | 3,383,234 | Form |
1 | Kereere Suzan | President, Global Markets | 6092025 | Sell | 73.24 | 4,162 | 304,827 | 3,550,924 | Form |
2 | Scotti Diego | EVP, GM, Consumer Group | 6092025 | Sell | 73.24 | 3,839 | 281,158 | 1,244,230 | Form |
3 | MCGOVERN GAIL J | 2282025 | Sell | 72.15 | 2,446 | 176,479 | 2,145,308 | Form |
External Quote Links
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