Tearsheet

Peloton Interactive (PTON)


Market Price (10/21/2025): $7.5 | Market Cap: $3.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary | Industry: Leisure Facilities

Peloton Interactive (PTON)


Market Price (10/21/2025): $7.5
Market Cap: $3.0 Bil
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Leisure Facilities

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -9.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -98%
Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 158x
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 11%
Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7%
2   Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.5%
0 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 13%
1 Attractive yield
FCF Yield is 11%
2 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -9.2%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -98%
3 Meaningful short interest
Short Interest % of Basic SharesShort Interest % of Basic Shares = (Short Interest Quantity) / (Basic Shares Outstanding). A high fraction of short interest can indicate potential risk of a short squeeze. is 19%
4 Expensive valuation multiples
P/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 158x
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is -7.8%, Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -11%, Rev Chg QQuarterly Revenue Change % is -5.7%
6 Yield minus risk free rate is negative
ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -8.5%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

PTON Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
PTON Return434%-76%-78%-23%43%-14%-74%
Peers Return50%77%-45%14%149%-34%178%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%106%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
PTON Win Rate83%25%42%42%50%56% 
Peers Win Rate55%50%28%63%50%49% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
PTON Max Drawdown-31%-77%-81%-46%-53%-43% 
Peers Max Drawdown-43%-18%-55%-35%-39%-39% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: LULU, PLNT, ESCA, CLAR, DOGZ. See PTON Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/20/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventPTONS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-97.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven3793.5%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-41.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven71.6%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven34 days148 days


How Low Can It Go?

Peloton Interactive's stock fell -97.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 1/13/2021. A -97.4% loss requires a 3793.5% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

Better Bets than Peloton Interactive (PTON)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to PTON. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-22.1%-22.1%-22.1%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.2%-1.2%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.4%-7.4%-7.9%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-4.2%-4.2%-11.7%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
ANF_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025ANFAbercrombie & FitchDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-22.1%-22.1%-22.1%
DECK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025DECKDeckers OutdoorDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-1.2%-1.2%-6.2%
CHH_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025CHHChoice Hotels InternationalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-7.4%-7.4%-7.9%
VAC_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025VACMarriott Vacations WorldwideDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
1.9%1.9%-6.1%
FUN_9302025_Short_Squeeze09302025FUNSix Flags EntertainmentSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-4.2%-4.2%-11.7%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Peloton Interactive

Financials

PTONLULUPLNTESCACLARDOGZMedian
NamePeloton .Lululemo.Planet F.Escalade Clarus Dogness  
Mkt Price7.47172.4395.2411.773.1814.7913.28
Mkt Cap3.020.68.00.20.1-3.0
Rev LTM2,49110,9041,250241254-1,250
Op Inc LTM852,49535315-24-85
FCF LTM3241,16820438-10-204
FCF 3Y Avg-771,279191355-35
CFO LTM3331,91235440-3-333
CFO 3Y Avg-401,9643273711-37

Growth & Margins

PTONLULUPLNTESCACLARDOGZMedian
NamePeloton .Lululemo.Planet F.Escalade Clarus Dogness  
Rev Chg LTM-7.8%9.2%12.5%-6.6%-10.4%--6.6%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-11.1%15.8%19.3%-9.0%-5.4%--5.4%
Rev Chg Q-5.7%6.5%13.3%-13.1%-2.2%--2.2%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM-1.4%1.4%3.3%-3.3%-0.5%--0.5%
Op Mgn LTM3.4%22.9%28.2%6.2%-9.5%-6.2%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg-14.1%22.7%26.5%6.4%-11.9%-6.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM4.9%-0.5%0.3%-0.5%-0.4%--0.4%
CFO/Rev LTM13.4%17.5%28.3%16.5%-1.3%-16.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg-1.0%19.8%28.9%14.4%5.4%-14.4%
FCF/Rev LTM13.0%10.7%16.3%15.7%-3.8%-13.0%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-2.3%12.9%16.9%13.7%2.6%-12.9%

Valuation

PTONLULUPLNTESCACLARDOGZMedian
NamePeloton .Lululemo.Planet F.Escalade Clarus Dogness  
Mkt Cap3.020.68.00.20.1-3.0
P/S1.21.96.40.70.5-1.2
P/EBIT158.28.321.28.6-5.0-8.6
P/E-25.311.542.312.7-1.5-11.5
P/CFO9.010.822.64.1-37.3-9.0
Total Yield-4.0%8.7%2.4%13.0%-64.3%-2.4%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%5.1%3.1%-0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-4.1%3.6%2.8%18.3%-0.3%-2.8%
D/E0.70.10.30.10.1-0.1
Net D/E0.30.00.30.1-0.1-0.1

Returns

PTONLULUPLNTESCACLARDOGZMedian
NamePeloton .Lululemo.Planet F.Escalade Clarus Dogness  
1M Rtn-9.7%1.7%-5.7%-5.0%-14.1%7.8%-5.4%
3M Rtn20.7%-22.7%-13.4%-6.7%-13.2%63.8%-9.9%
6M Rtn40.4%-32.1%2.4%-16.7%-2.8%-13.4%-8.1%
12M Rtn27.9%-40.9%18.3%-12.8%-25.6%-63.0%-19.2%
3Y Rtn1.8%-42.3%64.7%16.0%-71.2%-17.8%-8.0%
1M Excs Rtn-10.7%0.6%-6.8%-6.1%-15.1%6.7%-6.4%
3M Excs Rtn8.4%-29.7%-22.9%-15.5%-24.0%54.2%-19.2%
6M Excs Rtn9.8%-62.7%-28.2%-47.3%-33.3%-43.9%-38.6%
12M Excs Rtn26.7%-56.7%3.7%-27.0%-42.7%-78.8%-34.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-97.8%-125.0%-27.6%-60.6%-156.7%-107.1%-102.4%

Financials

Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity74,949,461
Short Interest: % Change Since 91520253.1%
Average Daily Volume13,232,291
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.66
Basic Shares Quantity402,288,956
Short % of Basic Shares18.6%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
8/7/20250.6%23.3%13.4%
5/8/2025-6.7%-5.2%4.6%
2/6/202512.0%21.1%-18.1%
10/31/202427.8%19.2%55.5%
8/22/202435.4%34.8%45.8%
5/2/2024-2.8%22.4%13.0%
2/1/2024-24.3%-21.0%-17.3%
11/2/202312.9%-1.7%29.3%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive10811
# Negative111310
Median Positive12.4%21.5%29.3%
Median Negative-11.3%-11.5%-21.5%
Max Positive35.4%34.8%55.5%
Max Negative-35.3%-41.3%-50.6%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025807202510-K 6/30/2025
3312025508202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024206202510-Q 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024822202410-K 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023201202410-Q 12/31/2023
93020231102202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023823202310-K 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022201202310-Q 12/31/2022
93020221103202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022907202210-K 6/30/2022
3312022510202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021208202210-Q 12/31/2021
93020211105202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Kirol Charles PeterChief Operating Officer9022025Sell7.603,58727,254245,339Form
1Caldwell Nick V.Chief Product Officer8262025Sell8.0010,47783,8164,722,272Form
2Sanders Dion C.Chief Commercial Officer8222025Sell7.61113,439863,679 Form
3Cotter Jennifer CunninghamChief Content Officer8222025Sell7.61134,4761,023,914763,458Form
4Baig SaqibChief Accounting Officer8222025Sell7.6221,736165,5331,182,584Form