PepsiCo (PEP)
Market Price (10/12/2026): $126.05 | Market Cap: $171.9 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
PepsiCo (PEP)
Market Price (10/12/2026): $126.05Market Cap: $171.9 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 4.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.6%, FCF Yield is 6.1% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.0 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100% | Key risksPEP key risks include [1] shifting consumer preferences away from its core snack and soft drink products and [2] increasing regulatory scrutiny targeting its packaging waste and ingredients. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, Dividend Yield is 4.6%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.6%, FCF Yield is 6.1% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 15%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 11%, CFO LTM is 15 Bil, FCF LTM is 10 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 21% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -55%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -100% |
| Key risksPEP key risks include [1] shifting consumer preferences away from its core snack and soft drink products and [2] increasing regulatory scrutiny targeting its packaging waste and ingredients. |
Qualitative Assessment
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PepsiCo (PEP) stock has lost about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lowered Fiscal 2026 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Guidance.
Despite exceeding revenue and adjusted EPS expectations in fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 5, 2026), with revenue increasing 5.6% year-over-year to $25.27 billion and adjusted EPS reaching $2.34 against a $2.29 consensus, PepsiCo reduced its full-year fiscal 2026 core EPS growth forecast to 1%-2% from a previous range of 4%-6%. This revision signaled anticipated margin and profitability pressures for the remainder of the fiscal year.
2. Weakness in North American Market Performance.
Challenges persisted in the crucial North American market, particularly within the beverage division, where organic revenue experienced a slight decline. This was attributed to lower sales volumes, even as the company implemented price adjustments, indicating a struggle with demand in this region.
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PepsiCo (PEP) stock has lost about 5% since 6/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Lowered Fiscal 2026 Earnings Per Share (EPS) Guidance.
Despite exceeding revenue and adjusted EPS expectations in fiscal Q3 2026 (ended September 5, 2026), with revenue increasing 5.6% year-over-year to $25.27 billion and adjusted EPS reaching $2.34 against a $2.29 consensus, PepsiCo reduced its full-year fiscal 2026 core EPS growth forecast to 1%-2% from a previous range of 4%-6%. This revision signaled anticipated margin and profitability pressures for the remainder of the fiscal year.
2. Weakness in North American Market Performance.
Challenges persisted in the crucial North American market, particularly within the beverage division, where organic revenue experienced a slight decline. This was attributed to lower sales volumes, even as the company implemented price adjustments, indicating a struggle with demand in this region.
3. Multiple Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions.
Several prominent investment firms and rating agencies either downgraded PepsiCo's stock or significantly lowered their price targets during the period. Examples include Wells Fargo & Company decreasing its price target from $150.00 to $140.00 in July 2026, Morgan Stanley dropping its target from $180.00 to $160.00 in July 2026, TD Cowen reducing its target from $145.00 to $133.00 in September 2026, and Goldman Sachs lowering its price target from $180 to $165 in October 2026. These actions reflected growing concerns among analysts regarding the company's future growth and profitability outlook.
4. Rising Input Costs and Margin Compression.
Management cited rising input costs and a shifting product mix as significant factors contributing to increased margin pressure. These elevated operating costs directly impacted the company's profitability, leading to the downward revision of the fiscal 2026 EPS guidance.
5. Concerns Regarding GLP-1 Weight-Loss Drugs.
Broader market sentiment reflected investor caution stemming from the potential long-term impact of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs. There are concerns these drugs could reduce demand for key product categories such as sugary beverages and salty snacks, which constitute a substantial portion of PepsiCo's portfolio.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.0% change in PEP stock from 6/30/2026 to 10/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -24.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 6302026 | 10112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 133.97 | 125.97 | -6.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 95,449 | 98,241 | 2.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.1% | 11.1% | 21.2% |
| P/E Multiple | 21.0 | 15.8 | -24.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,367 | 1,364 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.0% |
Market Drivers
6/30/2026 to 10/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEP | -6.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 4.3% | -15.1% |
| Sector (XLP) | 0.4% | 78.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.2% change in PEP stock from 3/31/2026 to 10/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -37.4% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 3312026 | 10112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 152.05 | 125.97 | -17.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 93,925 | 98,241 | 4.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.8% | 11.1% | 26.4% |
| P/E Multiple | 25.2 | 15.8 | -37.4% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,366 | 1,364 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.2% |
Market Drivers
3/31/2026 to 10/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEP | -17.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 20.0% | -12.8% |
| Sector (XLP) | 2.5% | 76.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -6.7% change in PEP stock from 9/30/2025 to 10/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -35.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302025 | 10112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 134.97 | 125.97 | -6.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 91,748 | 98,241 | 7.1% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.2% | 11.1% | 34.8% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.5 | 15.8 | -35.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,371 | 1,364 | 0.5% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -6.7% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2025 to 10/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEP | -6.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 17.8% | -14.8% |
| Sector (XLP) | 8.7% | 70.9% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.2% change in PEP stock from 9/30/2023 to 10/11/2026 was primarily driven by a -40.5% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 9302023 | 10112026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 152.05 | 125.97 | -17.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 90,135 | 98,241 | 9.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.8% | 11.1% | 26.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 26.5 | 15.8 | -40.5% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,378 | 1,364 | 1.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.2% |
Market Drivers
9/30/2023 to 10/11/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEP | -17.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 88.4% | 5.9% |
| Sector (XLP) | 30.7% | 70.8% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PEP Return | 21% | 7% | -3% | -8% | -2% | -8% | 4% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 9% | -1% | -3% | 4% | 9% | 36% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 13% | 107% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PEP Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 60% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 50% | 48% | 52% | 53% | 62% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 50% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PEP Max Drawdown | -13% | -12% | -18% | -15% | -18% | -25% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -17% | -22% | -19% | -20% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: KO, MDLZ, KDP, GIS, MNST. See PEP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 10/9/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PEP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -10.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 26 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 207 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -10.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 62 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 794 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
PepsiCo's stock fell -11.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 12.5% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | PEP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 207 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 794 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
PepsiCo's stock fell -11.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 12.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About PepsiCo (PEP)
PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) is a global leader in the food and beverage industry, engaged in the manufacturing, marketing, distribution, and sale of a vast array of popular beverages and convenient food products worldwide. The company operates across numerous geographic regions, including North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia Pacific, Australia, and New Zealand, underscoring its significant international reach and diversified market presence.
The company's extensive product portfolio features both iconic beverage brands and well-known food items. Beverage offerings range from concentrates, fountain syrups, and finished goods to ready-to-drink teas, coffees, juices, dairy products, and sparkling water makers. In the food category, PepsiCo is renowned for its snack products like chips, dips, and spreads under its Frito-Lay segment, as well as cereals, oatmeal, granola bars, and other convenient foods from its Quaker Foods division.
PepsiCo serves a broad spectrum of customers through an intricate distribution network that includes wholesale distributors, foodservice providers, and a wide range of retailers globally. This encompasses grocery stores, convenience stores, mass merchandisers, and e-commerce platforms. The company also works with authorized independent bottlers and sells directly to consumers, ensuring its products are readily available across diverse retail channels worldwide.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for PepsiCo:
- A global food and beverage giant similar to Nestlé.
- Imagine Coca-Cola for beverages combined with a leading snack company like Mondelez International.
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- Snack Foods: PepsiCo offers a wide range of savory snack foods, including chips, dips, spreads, and cheese-flavored snacks.
- Grain-Based & Packaged Foods: The company produces various grain-based foods such as cereals, oatmeal, granola bars, and side dishes.
- Carbonated Soft Drinks: PepsiCo manufactures and distributes popular carbonated soft drinks, including concentrates, fountain syrups, and finished beverages.
- Non-Carbonated Beverages: The company provides a diverse portfolio of non-carbonated drinks, such as ready-to-drink teas, coffees, and juices.
- Dairy Products: PepsiCo produces and sells various dairy products to consumers globally.
- Sparkling Water Makers: PepsiCo markets sparkling water makers and associated consumables, primarily through its SodaStream brand.
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Major Customers of PepsiCo (PEP)
PepsiCo primarily sells its products to other businesses, including wholesale and other distributors, foodservice customers, and various retail channels. Its major customers are therefore large retail corporations and wholesale operators that then sell to individual consumers or smaller businesses. Some of these major customer companies include:
- Walmart Inc. (WMT)
- The Kroger Co. (KR)
- Target Corporation (TGT)
- Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
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Ramon Laguarta Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Ramon Laguarta joined PepsiCo in 1996 and has held various leadership roles across global markets, including CEO of PepsiCo's European and Sub-Saharan African division. He played a key role in the acquisition of Russian dairy and juice company Wimm-Bill-Dann in 2010. Laguarta began his professional career at Chupa Chups, a Spanish candy company.
Steve Schmitt Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Steve Schmitt was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of PepsiCo, effective November 10, 2025. He joins PepsiCo from Walmart, where he served as EVP and CFO for Walmart U.S., overseeing financial operations for its multi-billion-dollar omni-channel business. Schmitt also held CFO roles across Walmart U.S. Omni-Channel, Walmart U.S. eCommerce, and Sam's Club. His career includes leadership positions at Yum! Brands and over a decade at UPS.
Steven Williams Executive Vice President & Vice Chairman, Global Chief Commercial Officer & Corporate Affairs
Steven Williams is the Executive Vice President & Vice Chairman, Global Chief Commercial Officer & Corporate Affairs. He previously served as CEO of PepsiCo North America.
Ram Krishnan Chief Executive Officer, PepsiCo North America
Ram Krishnan is set to become the CEO of PepsiCo North America, succeeding Steven Williams, effective December 28, 2025. He has a background in portfolio innovation and go-to-market transformation within PepsiCo's U.S. Beverages division.
Athina Kanioura Chief Executive Officer, Latin America Foods and Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy & Transformation Officer
Athina Kanioura serves as the CEO of Latin America Foods and is also the Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy & Transformation Officer at PepsiCo.
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The key risks to PepsiCo's business include regulatory scrutiny and litigation, evolving consumer preferences and intense competition, and inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions.
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Litigation: PepsiCo faces significant legal and regulatory risks, exemplified by a recent class-action lawsuit alleging price-fixing and previous investigations into discriminatory pricing by regulatory bodies. Non-compliance with various laws and regulations across its global operations, encompassing production, marketing, and environmental standards, could lead to substantial compliance costs, capital expenditures, and operational changes.
- Evolving Consumer Preferences and Intense Competition: The company operates in a highly competitive market where changing consumer tastes, particularly a shift towards healthier options and sustainable packaging, pose a continuous threat. This has contributed to market share erosion in some segments, such as losing the #2 U.S. soda spot, and has led to demands for strategic overhauls from activist investors. PepsiCo must continually innovate and adapt its product offerings to maintain relevance and defend its market position against both established rivals and emerging brands.
- Inflationary Pressures and Supply Chain Disruptions: PepsiCo's profitability is vulnerable to rising input costs, including agricultural commodities, fuel, and packaging materials. These inflationary pressures, coupled with potential disruptions in its complex global supply chain, can lead to gross margin compression if the company is unable to effectively pass on increased costs to consumers through pricing adjustments. Evidence suggests challenges in maintaining pricing power in certain snack categories, contributing to declining sales and market share in those areas.
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PepsiCo's addressable markets for its main products and services are substantial across various global and regional segments:
- The global snack food market was estimated at approximately $719.18 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $922.08 billion by 2030.
- In the U.S., the snack food market was valued at about $172.54 billion in 2024, with projections indicating it could exceed $193.51 billion by 2030.
- The North American snack food market was approximately $70.25 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach $87.02 billion by 2031.
- The global non-alcoholic beverages market was estimated at $1.41 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to grow to about $2.85 trillion by 2035.
- The North American non-alcoholic beverage market was sized at $366.58 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach $609.41 billion by 2033.
- For the U.S. non-alcoholic beverages market, the size was $169.55 billion in 2024, with a projection to grow to $246.90 billion by 2032.
- The global carbonated soft drink market was valued at about $496.46 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $771.3 billion by 2033.
- The U.S. soft drinks market (including carbonated soft drinks, bottled water, etc.) was $293.5 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to $545.2 billion by 2032.
- The global breakfast cereals market was valued at $65.23 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $104.07 billion by 2032.
- North America's breakfast cereals market was valued at $17.40 billion in 2024.
- The U.S. breakfast cereal market is projected to reach an estimated value of $20.82 billion by 2032.
- The global savory snacks market was $285.85 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $406.52 billion by 2032.
- The U.S. North America savory snacks market was valued at $37.59 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach $62.25 billion by 2030.
- The North America extruded snack food market was valued at $9.36 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach $12.65 billion by 2033.
- The U.S. functional drinks market generated a revenue of $48.47 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $77.97 billion by 2030.
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- International Market Expansion: PepsiCo expects continued strong growth from its international segments, particularly across Latin America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region. These markets are consistently highlighted as key growth engines, driven by broad-based demand for both snacks and beverages, and are seen as offsetting challenges in North America.
- Product Portfolio Innovation and Diversification: The company plans to accelerate organic revenue growth through evolving its product portfolio. This includes launching significant protein beverages, expanding its zero-sugar and "better-for-you" options, and deepening its presence in the energy drink category with brands like Rockstar and Celsius, as well as extending its Gatorade platform for sports hydration. Innovation also extends to flavor and format across its snack brands, including limited-time premium SKUs and portion-controlled packs.
- Strategic Pricing and Affordability Initiatives: PepsiCo anticipates driving revenue growth through its pricing power, which has historically helped offset volume fluctuations. The company also emphasizes a focus on affordability and innovation to support sales, especially in environments with cautious consumer spending.
- Productivity and Supply Chain Optimization: Significant productivity savings are expected through automation, digitalization, simplification initiatives, and the rationalization of warehouse infrastructure and manufacturing nodes. While primarily impacting margins, these efficiencies allow for reinvestment into growth initiatives, better service levels, and competitive pricing, indirectly supporting revenue expansion. PepsiCo aims for a record year of productivity savings in 2026.
- Expansion in Away-From-Home and E-commerce Channels: PepsiCo is strategically focusing on expanding its away-from-home business, which represents a higher-margin opportunity for both beverages and snacks. Additionally, the company is investing in digital activations and distribution to increase penetration in urban and rural e-commerce channels.
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Share Repurchases
- PepsiCo plans to return approximately $1.0 billion to shareholders through share repurchases in 2025.
- The company executed $1.0 billion in share repurchases in both 2024 and 2023.
- A new $10 billion share repurchase program was authorized on February 3, 2026, set to expire on February 28, 2030, which superseded a previous $10 billion program announced in February 2022.
Inbound Investments
- Activist investor Elliott Investment Management disclosed a substantial stake of approximately $4 billion in PepsiCo in September 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In March 2025, PepsiCo acquired Poppy, a prebiotic soda company, for $1.95 billion.
- The company invested $1.2 billion in October 2024 to acquire C8 Foods, known for its grain-free snacks.
- PepsiCo made a strategic investment of $550 million in Celsius, an energy drink company, in 2022.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 were -$4.42 billion, following $5.318 billion in 2024 and a peak of $5.518 billion in 2023.
- For 2026, capital spending is expected to be below 5% of net revenue.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes investments in capacity for faster-growing markets, cold-channel beverage execution, automation, and digital initiatives, alongside optimizing the North American supply chain and go-to-market systems.
Peer Outperformance in Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP | PepsiCo | 2.4% | 15.8x | -12.7% | -11.2% | -5.6% | — |
| COKE | Coca-Cola Consolidated | 5.8% | 23.8x | 58.6% | 223.8% | 413.6% | +419pp |
| KO | Coca-Cola | 4.4% | 26.5x | 34.8% | 81.8% | 88.0% | +94pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail | 12 | 10.3% | 42.6% | 59.3% | NGVC 210% · WMT 155% · VLGEA 136% |
| Food Retail | 6 | -7.0% | 49.4% | 34.3% | CASY 256% · SFM 188% · KR 72% |
| Tobacco | 6 | -32.9% | 9.4% | 20.1% | PM 165% · MO 123% · TPB 24% |
| Food Distributors | 9 | -0.1% | 33.2% | 7.5% | CHEF 239% · USFD 158% · ANDE 118% |
| Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages ← | 12 | -8.7% | -11.2% | -1.2% | COKE 414% · CCHGY 106% · MNST 98% |
| Brewers | 3 | -15.4% | -28.6% | -4.1% | BUD 53% · TAP -4% · SAM -67% |
| Household Products | 19 | 10.3% | -2.3% | -12.6% | ACU 106% · IPAR 63% · CL 31% |
| Agricultural Products & Services | 11 | -17.4% | -1.5% | -18.5% | ADM 45% · BG 39% · ALCO 21% |
| Personal Care Products | 4 | 4.0% | 3.9% | -21.0% | ELF 274% · PG 21% · COTY -63% |
| Packaged Foods & Meats | 48 | -29.8% | -33.5% | -41.7% | MAMA 492% · LWAY 309% · SENEA 239% |
| Distillers & Vintners | 5 | -42.2% | -54.2% | -78.3% | STZ -38% · BF-B -56% · MGPI -78% |
| Drug Retail | 3 | -23.9% | -42.4% | -94.5% | HITI -55% · PETS -95% · SCNX -95% |
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Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 52.00 |
| Mkt Cap | 128.7 |
| Rev LTM | 29,882 |
| Op Inc LTM | 3,960 |
| FCF LTM | 2,583 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,661 |
| CFO LTM | 3,482 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,632 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.5% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 4.5% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 6.0% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 16.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 18.5% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.0% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.0% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.2% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 128.7 |
| P/S | 4.0 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.4 |
| P/EBIT | 17.3 |
| P/E | 28.4 |
| P/CFO | 20.2 |
| Total Yield | 4.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -1.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -3.1% |
| 6M Rtn | 9.6% |
| 12M Rtn | 13.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 16.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -3.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -7.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -5.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -1.5% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -80.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA) | 28,197 | 27,769 | 27,626 | 26,213 | 25,276 |
| PepsiCo Foods North America (PFNA) | 27,528 | 27,431 | 28,015 | ||
| Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) | 18,025 | 16,658 | 16,210 | ||
| Latin America Foods (LatAm Foods) | 10,549 | 10,568 | 10,576 | ||
| International Beverages Franchise (IB Franchise) | 4,997 | 4,879 | 4,559 | ||
| Asia Pacific Foods | 4,629 | 4,549 | 4,485 | ||
| Africa, Middle East and South Asia (AMESA) | 6,438 | 6,078 | |||
| Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand and China region (APAC) | 4,787 | 4,615 | |||
| Europe | 12,724 | 13,038 | |||
| Frito-Lay North America (FLNA) | 23,291 | 19,608 | |||
| Latin America (LatAm) | 9,779 | 8,108 | |||
| Quaker Foods North America (QFNA) | 3,160 | 2,751 | |||
| Corporate unallocated expenses | 0 | ||||
| Total | 93,925 | 91,854 | 91,471 | 86,392 | 79,474 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PepsiCo Foods North America (PFNA) | 6,173 | 6,619 | 7,247 | ||
| Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) | 2,106 | 1,971 | 1,764 | ||
| Latin America Foods (LatAm Foods) | 2,010 | 2,052 | 1,898 | ||
| International Beverages Franchise (IB Franchise) | 1,769 | 1,462 | 567 | ||
| PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA) | 1,089 | 2,302 | 2,584 | 5,426 | 2,442 |
| Asia Pacific Foods | 369 | 377 | 301 | ||
| Corporate unallocated expenses | -2,018 | -1,896 | -2,375 | -2,103 | -1,683 |
| Africa, Middle East and South Asia (AMESA) | 666 | 858 | |||
| Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand and China region (APAC) | 537 | 673 | |||
| Europe | -1,380 | 1,292 | |||
| Frito-Lay North America (FLNA) | 6,135 | 5,633 | |||
| Latin America (LatAm) | 1,627 | 1,369 | |||
| Quaker Foods North America (QFNA) | 604 | 578 | |||
| Total | 11,498 | 12,887 | 11,986 | 11,512 | 11,162 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA) | 41,355 | 40,286 | 37,801 | 37,079 | 31,449 |
| Europe | 15,615 | 16,230 | 18,472 | 17,917 | 17,814 |
| Frito-Lay North America (FLNA) | 12,176 | 11,042 | 9,763 | 8,730 | 7,519 |
| Latin America (LatAm) | 9,281 | 7,886 | 7,272 | 6,977 | 7,007 |
| Corporate | 8,850 | 6,189 | 9,482 | 6,032 | |
| Africa, Middle East and South Asia (AMESA) | 6,389 | 6,143 | 6,125 | 5,942 | 3,672 |
| Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand and China region (APAC) | 5,630 | 5,452 | 5,654 | 5,770 | 4,113 |
| Quaker Foods North America (QFNA) | 1,199 | 1,245 | 1,101 | 1,021 | 941 |
| Corporate unallocated expenses | 3,903 | ||||
| Total | 100,495 | 92,187 | 92,377 | 92,918 | 78,547 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $125.97 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 172.1 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/01/1972 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -23.9% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $134.77 | $144.09 |
| DMA Trend | down | down |
| Distance from DMA | -6.5% | -12.6% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 19.8% | 20.7% |
| Downside Capture | 36.75 | -32.43 |
| Upside Capture | -9.34 | -40.86 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -9.0% | -14.1% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 0.18 | 0.11 | -0.26 | -0.20 | -0.23 | 0.08 |
| Up Beta | -0.72 | -0.41 | -1.10 | -0.06 | 0.09 | 0.24 |
| Down Beta | -0.88 | -0.52 | 0.12 | -0.07 | -0.09 | 0.07 |
| Up Capture | -6% | 5% | -17% | -31% | -21% | -1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 6 | 16 | 27 | 66 | 132 | 424 |
| Stock +ve Days | 6 | 17 | 27 | 53 | 114 | 363 |
| Down Capture | 143% | 93% | 14% | -10% | -64% | 4% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 16 | 26 | 37 | 60 | 120 | 328 |
| Stock -ve Days | 16 | 25 | 37 | 73 | 138 | 388 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PEP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP | -5.6% | 21.4% | -0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 9.5% | 14.6% | 0.39 | 71.1% |
| Equity (SPY) | 16.7% | 13.0% | 0.91 | -14.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 3.3% | 29.5% | 0.11 | 3.4% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 45.0% | 20.9% | 1.67 | -12.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.8% | 13.8% | 0.09 | 34.9% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -33.2% | 44.2% | -0.79 | -15.8% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PEP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP | -0.4% | 19.0% | -0.13 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.5% | 13.7% | 0.25 | 75.6% |
| Equity (SPY) | 13.9% | 17.1% | 0.62 | 24.7% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.5% | 18.9% | 0.79 | 3.6% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 10.0% | 19.5% | 0.39 | -1.2% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 1.3% | 18.8% | -0.04 | 40.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 11.4% | 52.0% | 0.39 | 2.9% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PEP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP | 4.8% | 19.9% | 0.19 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.5% | 14.9% | 0.37 | 81.9% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.5% | 17.9% | 0.73 | 48.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.8% | 16.4% | 0.59 | 7.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 0.37 | 9.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.5% | 20.7% | 0.18 | 54.4% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.5% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 7.3% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 10/12/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/8/2026 | -1.8% | ||
| 7/9/2026 | -3.3% | -5.0% | -2.9% |
| 4/16/2026 | 2.3% | -0.7% | -4.0% |
| 2/3/2026 | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.6% |
| 10/9/2025 | 4.2% | 8.9% | 2.0% |
| 7/17/2025 | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.8% |
| 4/24/2025 | -4.9% | -4.7% | -8.5% |
| 2/4/2025 | -4.5% | -3.9% | 2.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 12 | 16 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 4.1% | 2.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -2.5% | -3.7% |
| Max Positive | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.8% |
| Max Negative | -4.9% | -5.0% | -10.0% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 10/8/2026 | -1.8% | ||
| 7/9/2026 | -3.3% | -5.0% | -2.9% |
| 4/16/2026 | 2.3% | -0.7% | -4.0% |
| 2/3/2026 | 4.9% | 7.3% | 5.6% |
| 10/9/2025 | 4.2% | 8.9% | 2.0% |
| 7/17/2025 | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.8% |
| 4/24/2025 | -4.9% | -4.7% | -8.5% |
| 2/4/2025 | -4.5% | -3.9% | 2.4% |
| 10/8/2024 | 1.9% | 5.3% | 0.4% |
| 7/11/2024 | 0.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% |
| 4/23/2024 | -3.0% | -0.2% | 2.6% |
| 2/9/2024 | -3.6% | -3.4% | -4.5% |
| 10/10/2023 | 1.9% | -0.2% | 3.6% |
| 7/13/2023 | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| 4/25/2023 | 2.3% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| 2/9/2023 | 0.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| 10/12/2022 | 4.2% | 7.7% | 9.8% |
| 7/12/2022 | -0.6% | -1.3% | 2.4% |
| 4/26/2022 | -0.3% | -3.4% | -3.4% |
| 2/10/2022 | -2.1% | -3.3% | -10.0% |
| 10/5/2021 | 0.6% | 4.0% | 8.3% |
| 7/13/2021 | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% |
| 4/15/2021 | 0.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% |
| 2/11/2021 | -2.0% | -1.7% | -2.6% |
| 10/1/2020 | 1.6% | -1.1% | -3.3% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 15 | 12 | 16 |
| # Negative | 10 | 12 | 8 |
| Median Positive | 2.3% | 4.1% | 2.8% |
| Median Negative | -2.5% | -2.5% | -3.7% |
| Max Positive | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.8% |
| Max Negative | -4.9% | -5.0% | -10.0% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 10/9/2026Latest: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 10/8/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Cash Returns to Shareholders | Reported | 8.90 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 8.90 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Dividends | Reported | 7.90 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.90 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | Reported | 3.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Acquisitions, Net of Divestitures Impact on Net Revenue Growth | Reported | 1.5% | ||||||
| 2026 Net Revenue Growth | Reported | 6.0% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Spending % of Net Revenue | Reported | 5.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Core Annual Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 21.0% | -1.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 22.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Foreign Exchange Translation Impact on Net Revenue and Core EPS Growth | Reported | 1.5% | ||||||
| 2026 Core Constant Currency EPS Growth | Reported | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | -3.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Core EPS Growth | Reported | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | -3.0% | Lowered | Guidance: 6.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow Conversion Ratio | Reported | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.8 for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 1.00 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Prior: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/9/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Capital Spending | Reported | 0.05 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.05 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Total Cash Returns to Shareholders | Reported | 8.90 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 8.90 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Dividends | Reported | 7.90 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.90 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | Reported | 2.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Net Revenue Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Core Annual Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 22.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 22.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Core Constant Currency EPS Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Core EPS Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 6.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow Conversion Ratio | Reported | 0.8 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.8 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 1.00 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/16/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Capital Spending | Reported | 0.05 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.05 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Total Cash Returns to Shareholders | Reported | 8.90 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 8.90 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Dividends | Reported | 7.90 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.90 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | Reported | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Net Revenue Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Core Annual Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 22.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 22.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Core Constant Currency EPS Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Core EPS Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 6.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Free Cash Flow Conversion Ratio | Reported | 0.8 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.8 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 1.00 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Capital Spending | Reported | 0.05 | ||||||
| 2026 Total Cash Returns to Shareholders | Reported | 8.90 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Dividends | Reported | 7.90 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | Reported | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | ||||
| 2026 Net Revenue Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | ||||
| 2026 Core Annual Effective Tax Rate | Reported | 22.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Core Constant Currency EPS Growth | Reported | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | ||||
| 2026 Core EPS Growth | Reported | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | ||||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow Conversion Ratio | Reported | 0.8 | ||||||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | Reported | 1.00 Bil | ||||||
Insider Activity
Updated 8/7/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flavell, David | EVP, Gen Counsel & Corp Sec | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 139.54 | 2,900 | 404,674 | 10,441,283 | Form |
| 2 | Willemsen, Eugene | CEO, International Beverages | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 164.46 | 3,798 | 624,600 | 10,427,598 | Form |
| 3 | Willemsen, Eugene | CEO, International Beverages | Non-U.S. Company | Sell | 3062026 | 164.44 | 2,702 | 444,323 | 3,345,085 | Form |
| 4 | Laguarta, Ramon | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 167.39 | 27,945 | 4,677,610 | 87,316,226 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flavell, David | EVP, Gen Counsel & Corp Sec | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 139.54 | 2,900 | 404,674 | 10,441,283 | Form |
| 2 | Willemsen, Eugene | CEO, International Beverages | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 164.46 | 3,798 | 624,600 | 10,427,598 | Form |
| 3 | Willemsen, Eugene | CEO, International Beverages | Non-U.S. Company | Sell | 3062026 | 164.44 | 2,702 | 444,323 | 3,345,085 | Form |
| 4 | Laguarta, Ramon | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 167.39 | 27,945 | 4,677,610 | 87,316,226 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Oct 12, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindsell Train Ltd | $198.3 Mil | 6.3% | 27 | TRIM -29.1% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $166.6 Mil | 5.4% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $73.4 Mil | 4.2% | 47 | New | 13F |
| Coerente Capital Management | $22.2 Mil | 4.1% | 47 | Hold | 13F |
| WELLCOME TRUST LTD (THE) as trustee of the WELLCOME TRUST | $310.6 Mil | 3.8% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Eldred Rock Partners, LLC | $14.1 Mil | 3.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Coleford Investment Management Ltd. | $14.1 Mil | 3.5% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Holowesko Partners Ltd. | $9.8 Mil | 2.7% | 31 | New | 13F |
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $370.4 Mil | 2.6% | 44 | TRIM -5.6% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $8.2 Mil | 2.4% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Fluent Financial, LLC | $5.5 Mil | 2.0% | 43 | TRIM -19.6% | 13F |
| Saratoga Research & Investment Management | $26.9 Mil | 1.5% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Elliott Investment Management L.P. | $198.0 Mil | 1.2% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $30.5 Mil | 0.9% | 30 | TRIM -22.3% | 13F |
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $23.3 Mil | 0.9% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $275.4 Mil | 0.3% | 44 | TRIM -58.2% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vantage Wealth | $18.8 Mil | 4.1% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $8.1 Mil | 1.7% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $275.4 Mil | 0.3% | 44 | TRIM -58.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Lindsell Train Ltd | $198.3 Mil | 6.3% | 27 | TRIM -29.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $30.5 Mil | 0.9% | 30 | TRIM -22.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Fluent Financial, LLC | $5.5 Mil | 2.0% | 43 | TRIM -19.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $370.4 Mil | 2.6% | 44 | TRIM -5.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $370.4 Mil | 2.6% | 44 | TRIM -5.6% | 13F |
| WELLCOME TRUST LTD (THE) as trustee of the WELLCOME TRUST | $310.6 Mil | 3.8% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $275.4 Mil | 0.3% | 44 | TRIM -58.2% | 13F |
| Lindsell Train Ltd | $198.3 Mil | 6.3% | 27 | TRIM -29.1% | 13F |
| Elliott Investment Management L.P. | $198.0 Mil | 1.2% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $166.6 Mil | 5.4% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $73.4 Mil | 4.2% | 47 | New | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $30.5 Mil | 0.9% | 30 | TRIM -22.3% | 13F |
| Saratoga Research & Investment Management | $26.9 Mil | 1.5% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $23.3 Mil | 0.9% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Coerente Capital Management | $22.2 Mil | 4.1% | 47 | Hold | 13F |
| Eldred Rock Partners, LLC | $14.1 Mil | 3.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Coleford Investment Management Ltd. | $14.1 Mil | 3.5% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Holowesko Partners Ltd. | $9.8 Mil | 2.7% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $8.2 Mil | 2.4% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Fluent Financial, LLC | $5.5 Mil | 2.0% | 43 | TRIM -19.6% | 13F |
PEP Trade Sentinel
Constructive
CONVICTION RATIONALE
PepsiCo's international segments and North American foods business provide a stable base to fund a critical turnaround in U.S. beverages. An acceleration in global beverage volume to 3% in the latest quarter suggests early strategic progress. The investment case is constructive but hinges on management delivering guided 'sequential improvement' in North America against acknowledged competitive weakness.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Consumer StaplesRevenue = (Unit Volume) x (Price / Mix) Operating leverage from volume growth, productivity savings, and effective net revenue management to offset input cost inflation.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a turnaround is underway, with accelerating global beverage volumes and a recovering U.S. snacks business funding the fix.
- Global beverage volume growth accelerated to 3% in Q3 2026 from the previous quarter.
- Management reports a turnaround in North American snacks volume after a price reset.
- International segments are growing, with Asia Pacific Foods volume up 4% in Q3.
- Operating expenses grew only 1.4% while revenue grew 6.4%, funding reinvestment.
PRIMARY RISK
The North American beverage segment's profitability has collapsed since 2023 amid rising input costs and direct admissions of competitive failure against Coca-Cola.
- PBNA operating income fell from $2,584 million in 2023 to $1,089 million in 2025.
- Management stated, 'We are not competing well in soft drinks' in October 2026.
- Input costs are 'trending higher' as existing corporate hedges begin to roll off.
- The company lowered its EPS guidance for Q4 2026, citing margin pressure.
- Coca-Cola holds a 20% to 16% share lead in the U.S. liquid beverage market.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Organic Revenue Growth | 3.1% in Q3 2026 - Accelerating | Management highlighted that the Q3 2026 organic revenue growth was the fastest rate since Q4 2023, marking a significant milestone in its effort to accelerate top-line performance across the enterprise. |
| Global Unit Volume Growth | 3% for beverages and 1% for food in Q3 2026 | The trend is mixed. Beverage volumes are strengthening sequentially. Management noted that the headline food volume figure was weighed down by a grains business in South Africa, and that the core global snacks business grew 4%. |
| Global Beverage Volume Growth | 3% (Q3 2026) | Measures consumer demand for the company's beverage products at the consumer level, adjusting for acquisitions and divestitures. It is a key metric management uses to evaluate business performance and underlying trends. |
| Global Food Volume Growth | 1% (or 4% excluding grains in South Africa) (Q3 2026) | Measures consumer demand for the company's convenient food products. Management uses this to make operating and strategic decisions and to gauge underlying trends. |
International Strength vs. U.S. Weakness
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe strong international volume growth and a stable profit engine in North American foods provide enough firepower to fund and execute a successful U.S. beverage turnaround.
CORE TENSION
Can accelerating international growth offset the severe profit decline in U.S. beverages, which the market punished after the July 2026 report?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bulls. The market reacted positively to Q3 results, rewarding an acceleration in global beverage volume to 3% despite the near-term margin guidance.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue the U.S. beverage profit collapse from $2,584 million to $1,089 million is too severe to be offset and represents a permanent market share loss that will drag down the entire company.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
10/27/2026 | Peer Read-Across Highlights Weakness Watch: Coca-Cola's carbonated soft drink volume and revenue growth, particularly in North America and international markets. |
11/3/2026 | Keurig Dr Pepper Earnings Watch: Peer Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is scheduled to report earnings. |
later in the year, towards the end of the year | North America Integration Update Watch: Management plans to provide an update on the integration of its North American food and beverage distribution. |
December 1, 2026 | New Director Joins Board Watch: Joaquin Duato will join the Board of Directors as an independent member. |
December 4, 2026 | Quarterly Dividend Record Date Watch: The record date for the quarterly cash dividend payment is expected. |
12/15/2026 | General Mills Earnings Report Watch: Peer General Mills (GIS) is scheduled to report earnings. |
2/1/2027 | Q4 Margin Contraction Materializes Watch: Reported Q4 gross and operating margins versus expectations; commentary on the 2027 cost outlook. |
2/1/2027 | North America Turnaround Falters Watch: North America beverage volume growth; overall North America organic revenue growth rate versus Q3. |
in February when we report the fourth quarter | Full-Year 2027 Outlook Watch: Management will provide more detail on 2027 expectations when the company reports fourth quarter results. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-10-08 | Q3 Results Beat, Q4 Guided Down Details: The company reported Q3 results, leading to a positive two-day stock reaction of 4.0%. (MKT-1) On the call, management revised Q4 earnings guidance down due to margin pressure. (T-1) | +3.7% $123.73 -> $128.34 |
2026-09-17 | New Director Elected to Board Details: The Board of Directors elected Joaquin Duato, Chairman and CEO of Johnson & Johnson, as a new independent member, effective December 1, 2026. (ART-2) | -3.4% $134.34 -> $129.75 |
2026-08-13 | ESG Progress Report Released Details: The company released its 2025 ESG Summary, detailing progress on goals related to agriculture, emissions, packaging, and product shifts toward lower sugar, sodium and saturated fat. (ART-6) | +1.5% $137.23 -> $139.30 |
2026-07-09 | Q2 Earnings Disappoints Market Details: The company affirmed its full-year 2026 guidance. (G-1) However, the stock had a negative two-day reaction of -4.0% versus 1.0% for the S&P 500. (MKT-1) | -3.6% $141.00 -> $135.93 |
2026-06-26 | Analyst Flags NA Weakness Details: An analyst note trimmed the 2026 EPS estimate ahead of Q2 results, citing softer-than-expected performance in the North American snacks business. (REWIND-1) | -0.6% $138.05 -> $137.21 |
2026-04-16 | Strong Q1 Earnings Report Details: The company reported Q1 results that beat revenue and EPS estimates, with a positive two-day stock reaction of 2.0%. (REWIND-1, DRAW-1) | +1.8% $151.62 -> $154.38 |
Position Sizing
5% - 7%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: PEP trades at roughly 18% annualized realized (three-month) volatility versus about 11% for the S&P 500 (1.6x the market). A 5% - 7% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
KO - Coca-Cola
Beverage Pure-PlayCoca-Cola offers focused exposure to the global beverage market with structurally higher operating margins of 31.8% versus PepsiCo's 15.3%, reflecting its franchise-centric model.
MDLZ - Mondelez International, Inc.
Global Snacks PeerMondelez provides exposure to the global convenient foods market without the current operational drag from a large, underperforming beverage business.
PepsiCo is a global food and beverage giant where a highly profitable North American snacks division and strong international growth are currently funding a critical and urgent turnaround effort in its large but underperforming North American beverage business.
PepsiCo's investment case hinges on the success of its two-pronged strategy: maintaining momentum in its high-growth international markets and its profitable North American foods business, while urgently addressing competitive weakness and margin pressure in its North American beverage segment. The company is actively cutting costs to reinvest in brands and execution in the U.S. The market is rewarding recent signs of progress but remains focused on whether the beverage turnaround can be sustained against a backdrop of rising input costs and a cautious consumer.
Sustained volume growth and market share gains in North American beverages, continued strong growth and margin expansion in international segments, and evidence that productivity savings are successfully funding brand investments without further margin degradation.
Continued market share losses in North American soft drinks, margin erosion due to an inability to offset rising commodity costs with pricing or productivity, or a significant slowdown in international growth.
Short-term commodity price fluctuations that are within the company's hedging program, or minor quarterly shifts in marketing spend.
Repricing Catalyst
The key catalyst is evidence of a successful turnaround in the North American beverage business, particularly in soft drinks. Management has signaled 'urgency' and a willingness to make significant changes, including potential refranchising, which could unlock value if executed successfully.
PepsiCo Foods North America (PFNA)
$27.5B TTM (28% of Total) · 22% MarginWhat It Is
Sells convenient foods including cereals, chips, dips, and oatmeal under brands like Cheetos, Doritos, Fritos, Lay's, Quaker, and Tostitos to independent distributors and retailers in the United States and Canada.
Who Pays & How
Independent distributors and retailers pay for a portfolio of leading snack and food brands with high consumer demand, supported by PepsiCo's direct-store-delivery (DSD) system which enables effective in-store merchandising and promotion.
Competition
PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA)
$29.2B TTM (30% of Total) · 10% MarginWhat It Is
Sells beverage concentrates, fountain syrups, and finished goods under brands like Pepsi, Gatorade, Mountain Dew, and Aquafina to independent distributors, retailers, and authorized bottlers in the United States and Canada.
Who Pays & How
Retailers, distributors, and authorized bottlers pay for a portfolio of iconic beverage brands. The segment operates its own bottling plants and distribution facilities, and also sells concentrates to bottlers who then sell finished goods.
Competition
International Beverages Franchise (IB Franchise)
$5.2B TTM (5% of Total) · 37% MarginWhat It Is
Sells beverage concentrates for brands like 7UP, Gatorade, Mirinda, Mountain Dew, and Pepsi to authorized and independent bottlers internationally. Also includes the SodaStream business.
Who Pays & How
Authorized and independent bottlers pay for beverage concentrates, which they use to manufacture, sell, and distribute finished products in exclusive geographic areas.
Competition
Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA)
$18.9B TTM (20% of Total) · 13% MarginWhat It Is
Sells convenient foods (e.g., Lay's, Doritos, Quaker) and beverages (e.g., Pepsi, 7UP) through both consolidated businesses and noncontrolled affiliates in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
Who Pays & How
Independent distributors and retailers pay for finished food and beverage products. The segment operates its own bottling plants and distribution facilities in this region.
Competition
Latin America Foods (LatAm Foods)
$11.2B TTM (12% of Total) · 19% MarginWhat It Is
Sells convenient food brands including Cheetos, Doritos, Lay's, Quaker, and Sabritas to distributors and retailers across Latin America.
Who Pays & How
Distributors and retailers pay for a portfolio of popular snack brands tailored to local tastes in Latin America.
Competition
Asia Pacific Foods
$4.9B TTM (5% of Total) · 11% MarginWhat It Is
Sells convenient food brands including Lay's, Doritos, Cheetos, and local brands like Kurkure and BaiCaoWei through consolidated businesses and affiliates in Asia Pacific, China, Australia, New Zealand, and India.
Who Pays & How
Distributors and retailers pay for a mix of global and local snack brands with strong consumer appeal in the region.
Competition
PepsiCo — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages Resources |
| Beverage Daily |
| BevNET |
| Beverage Industry |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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