PepsiCo (PEP)
Market Price (8/2/2026): $139.71 | Market Cap: $190.8 BilInvestor Relations Sector: Consumer Staples | Industry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
PepsiCo (PEP)
Market Price (8/2/2026): $139.71Market Cap: $190.8 BilSector: Consumer StaplesIndustry: Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.3% Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.3 Bil Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.0 Bil Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% | Key risksPEP key risks include [1] shifting consumer preferences away from its core snack and soft drink products and [2] increasing regulatory scrutiny targeting its packaging waste and ingredients. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 9.6%, Dividend Yield is 4.1%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 5.3% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 14%, CFO LTM is 13 Bil, FCF LTM is 9.3 Bil |
| Stock buyback supportStock Buyback 3Y Total is 3.0 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 22% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include E-commerce & Digital Retail, Health & Wellness Trends, Vegan & Alternative Foods, and Circular Economy & Recycling. Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -50%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -83% |
| Key risksPEP key risks include [1] shifting consumer preferences away from its core snack and soft drink products and [2] increasing regulatory scrutiny targeting its packaging waste and ingredients. |
Qualitative Assessment
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PepsiCo (PEP) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Underperformance in North American Segments. PepsiCo experienced a decline in its key North American market during fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 13, 2026. Organic revenue in North America decreased by 0.5%, with PepsiCo Foods North America revenues falling 2% and PepsiCo Beverages North America seeing only 1% organic growth. This regional weakness contributed to investor concerns despite the company's overall revenue rising 6.4% year-over-year to $24.18 billion in the same quarter.
2. Broader Consumer Staples Sector Weakness and Macroeconomic Headwinds. The consumer staples sector, which includes PepsiCo, has generally underperformed in 2026, contrary to its typical defensive nature in uncertain economic times. This underperformance is attributed to persistent inflation, rising bond yields, and weaker consumer demand. Additionally, U.S. GDP growth slowed to an annualized rate of 1.5% in fiscal Q2 2026, below economists' expectations, partly due to geopolitical events impacting energy costs and consumer spending.
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PepsiCo (PEP) stock has lost about 10% since 4/30/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Underperformance in North American Segments. PepsiCo experienced a decline in its key North American market during fiscal Q2 2026, which ended June 13, 2026. Organic revenue in North America decreased by 0.5%, with PepsiCo Foods North America revenues falling 2% and PepsiCo Beverages North America seeing only 1% organic growth. This regional weakness contributed to investor concerns despite the company's overall revenue rising 6.4% year-over-year to $24.18 billion in the same quarter.
2. Broader Consumer Staples Sector Weakness and Macroeconomic Headwinds. The consumer staples sector, which includes PepsiCo, has generally underperformed in 2026, contrary to its typical defensive nature in uncertain economic times. This underperformance is attributed to persistent inflation, rising bond yields, and weaker consumer demand. Additionally, U.S. GDP growth slowed to an annualized rate of 1.5% in fiscal Q2 2026, below economists' expectations, partly due to geopolitical events impacting energy costs and consumer spending.
3. Concerns Over Revenue Growth Quality and Potential Margin Pressure from Pricing Strategy. Earlier in 2026, PepsiCo implemented price cuts on certain items to stimulate volume growth among cost-conscious consumers. While this strategy contributed to positive sales volume momentum in fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026, with volume adding about 1 percentage point to revenue growth, it may have raised investor concerns about potential pressure on profit margins and the sustainability of revenue quality in a competitive, price-sensitive market.
4. Reaffirmed Guidance with Back-Half Weighting and Execution Risk. PepsiCo reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 outlook, projecting organic revenue growth of 2-4% and core earnings per share (EPS) growth of 5-7%. However, the company indicated that earnings growth is expected to be weighted towards the fourth quarter. This forward-looking guidance, with a heavier reliance on performance later in the year amid ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties, may have introduced perceived execution risk for investors.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -11.0% change in PEP stock from 4/30/2026 to 8/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -25.7% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 4302026 | 8012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 156.84 | 139.56 | -11.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 95,449 | 96,904 | 1.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.1% | 10.8% | 17.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.6 | 18.2 | -25.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,367 | 1,366 | 0.1% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -11.0% |
Market Drivers
4/30/2026 to 8/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEP | -11.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 3.9% | -26.0% |
| Sector (XLP) | 0.9% | 77.3% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -7.4% change in PEP stock from 1/31/2026 to 8/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -36.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 1312026 | 8012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 150.68 | 139.56 | -7.4% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 92,366 | 96,904 | 4.9% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.8% | 10.8% | 37.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 28.6 | 18.2 | -36.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,369 | 1,366 | 0.2% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -7.4% |
Market Drivers
1/31/2026 to 8/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEP | -7.4% | |
| Market (SPY) | 8.3% | -11.5% |
| Sector (XLP) | 2.4% | 75.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 5.2% change in PEP stock from 7/31/2025 to 8/1/2026 was primarily driven by a 31.1% change in the company's Net Income Margin (%).| (LTM values as of) | 7312025 | 8012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 132.67 | 139.56 | 5.2% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 91,748 | 96,904 | 5.6% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.2% | 10.8% | 31.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 24.1 | 18.2 | -24.3% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,371 | 1,366 | 0.4% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 5.2% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2025 to 8/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEP | 5.2% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.2% | -15.7% |
| Sector (XLP) | 8.8% | 69.4% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -17.3% change in PEP stock from 7/31/2023 to 8/1/2026 was primarily driven by a -38.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 7312023 | 8012026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 168.83 | 139.56 | -17.3% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 90,135 | 96,904 | 7.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.8% | 10.8% | 23.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 29.4 | 18.2 | -38.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 1,378 | 1,366 | 0.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -17.3% |
Market Drivers
7/31/2023 to 8/1/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| PEP | -17.3% | |
| Market (SPY) | 68.9% | 7.6% |
| Sector (XLP) | 21.0% | 71.1% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PEP Return | 21% | 7% | -3% | -8% | -2% | -0% | 12% |
| Peers Return | 13% | 9% | -1% | -3% | 4% | 14% | 42% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 9% | 98% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PEP Win Rate | 58% | 50% | 58% | 33% | 50% | 57% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 52% | 50% | 48% | 52% | 53% | 66% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 43% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PEP Max Drawdown | -13% | -12% | -18% | -15% | -18% | -19% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -12% | -17% | -22% | -19% | -20% | -18% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: KO, MDLZ, KDP, GIS, MNST. See PEP Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 7/31/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PEP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -11.1% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 12.5% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 64 days | 79 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -10.5% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.8% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 26 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 207 days | 140 days |
| 2015-2016 China Devaluation / Global Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -10.2% | -12.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 11.4% | 13.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 45 days | 62 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 794 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
PepsiCo's stock fell -11.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 12.5% gain to breakeven.
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| Event | PEP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -28.1% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 39.1% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 207 days | 140 days |
| 2008-2009 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -38.6% | -53.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 63.0% | 114.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 794 days | 1085 days |
In The Past
PepsiCo's stock fell -11.1% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 12.5% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About PepsiCo (PEP)
PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) is a global leader in the food and beverage industry, engaged in the manufacturing, marketing, distribution, and sale of a vast array of popular beverages and convenient food products worldwide. The company operates across numerous geographic regions, including North America, Latin America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East, Asia Pacific, Australia, and New Zealand, underscoring its significant international reach and diversified market presence.
The company's extensive product portfolio features both iconic beverage brands and well-known food items. Beverage offerings range from concentrates, fountain syrups, and finished goods to ready-to-drink teas, coffees, juices, dairy products, and sparkling water makers. In the food category, PepsiCo is renowned for its snack products like chips, dips, and spreads under its Frito-Lay segment, as well as cereals, oatmeal, granola bars, and other convenient foods from its Quaker Foods division.
PepsiCo serves a broad spectrum of customers through an intricate distribution network that includes wholesale distributors, foodservice providers, and a wide range of retailers globally. This encompasses grocery stores, convenience stores, mass merchandisers, and e-commerce platforms. The company also works with authorized independent bottlers and sells directly to consumers, ensuring its products are readily available across diverse retail channels worldwide.
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Here are 1-2 brief analogies for PepsiCo:
- A global food and beverage giant similar to Nestlé.
- Imagine Coca-Cola for beverages combined with a leading snack company like Mondelez International.
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- Snack Foods: PepsiCo offers a wide range of savory snack foods, including chips, dips, spreads, and cheese-flavored snacks.
- Grain-Based & Packaged Foods: The company produces various grain-based foods such as cereals, oatmeal, granola bars, and side dishes.
- Carbonated Soft Drinks: PepsiCo manufactures and distributes popular carbonated soft drinks, including concentrates, fountain syrups, and finished beverages.
- Non-Carbonated Beverages: The company provides a diverse portfolio of non-carbonated drinks, such as ready-to-drink teas, coffees, and juices.
- Dairy Products: PepsiCo produces and sells various dairy products to consumers globally.
- Sparkling Water Makers: PepsiCo markets sparkling water makers and associated consumables, primarily through its SodaStream brand.
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Major Customers of PepsiCo (PEP)
PepsiCo primarily sells its products to other businesses, including wholesale and other distributors, foodservice customers, and various retail channels. Its major customers are therefore large retail corporations and wholesale operators that then sell to individual consumers or smaller businesses. Some of these major customer companies include:
- Walmart Inc. (WMT)
- The Kroger Co. (KR)
- Target Corporation (TGT)
- Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
- Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
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Ramon Laguarta Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Ramon Laguarta joined PepsiCo in 1996 and has held various leadership roles across global markets, including CEO of PepsiCo's European and Sub-Saharan African division. He played a key role in the acquisition of Russian dairy and juice company Wimm-Bill-Dann in 2010. Laguarta began his professional career at Chupa Chups, a Spanish candy company.
Steve Schmitt Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Steve Schmitt was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of PepsiCo, effective November 10, 2025. He joins PepsiCo from Walmart, where he served as EVP and CFO for Walmart U.S., overseeing financial operations for its multi-billion-dollar omni-channel business. Schmitt also held CFO roles across Walmart U.S. Omni-Channel, Walmart U.S. eCommerce, and Sam's Club. His career includes leadership positions at Yum! Brands and over a decade at UPS.
Steven Williams Executive Vice President & Vice Chairman, Global Chief Commercial Officer & Corporate Affairs
Steven Williams is the Executive Vice President & Vice Chairman, Global Chief Commercial Officer & Corporate Affairs. He previously served as CEO of PepsiCo North America.
Ram Krishnan Chief Executive Officer, PepsiCo North America
Ram Krishnan is set to become the CEO of PepsiCo North America, succeeding Steven Williams, effective December 28, 2025. He has a background in portfolio innovation and go-to-market transformation within PepsiCo's U.S. Beverages division.
Athina Kanioura Chief Executive Officer, Latin America Foods and Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy & Transformation Officer
Athina Kanioura serves as the CEO of Latin America Foods and is also the Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy & Transformation Officer at PepsiCo.
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The key risks to PepsiCo's business include regulatory scrutiny and litigation, evolving consumer preferences and intense competition, and inflationary pressures and supply chain disruptions.
- Regulatory Scrutiny and Litigation: PepsiCo faces significant legal and regulatory risks, exemplified by a recent class-action lawsuit alleging price-fixing and previous investigations into discriminatory pricing by regulatory bodies. Non-compliance with various laws and regulations across its global operations, encompassing production, marketing, and environmental standards, could lead to substantial compliance costs, capital expenditures, and operational changes.
- Evolving Consumer Preferences and Intense Competition: The company operates in a highly competitive market where changing consumer tastes, particularly a shift towards healthier options and sustainable packaging, pose a continuous threat. This has contributed to market share erosion in some segments, such as losing the #2 U.S. soda spot, and has led to demands for strategic overhauls from activist investors. PepsiCo must continually innovate and adapt its product offerings to maintain relevance and defend its market position against both established rivals and emerging brands.
- Inflationary Pressures and Supply Chain Disruptions: PepsiCo's profitability is vulnerable to rising input costs, including agricultural commodities, fuel, and packaging materials. These inflationary pressures, coupled with potential disruptions in its complex global supply chain, can lead to gross margin compression if the company is unable to effectively pass on increased costs to consumers through pricing adjustments. Evidence suggests challenges in maintaining pricing power in certain snack categories, contributing to declining sales and market share in those areas.
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PepsiCo's addressable markets for its main products and services are substantial across various global and regional segments:
- The global snack food market was estimated at approximately $719.18 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $922.08 billion by 2030.
- In the U.S., the snack food market was valued at about $172.54 billion in 2024, with projections indicating it could exceed $193.51 billion by 2030.
- The North American snack food market was approximately $70.25 billion in 2025 and is forecast to reach $87.02 billion by 2031.
- The global non-alcoholic beverages market was estimated at $1.41 trillion in 2025 and is predicted to grow to about $2.85 trillion by 2035.
- The North American non-alcoholic beverage market was sized at $366.58 billion in 2024 and is anticipated to reach $609.41 billion by 2033.
- For the U.S. non-alcoholic beverages market, the size was $169.55 billion in 2024, with a projection to grow to $246.90 billion by 2032.
- The global carbonated soft drink market was valued at about $496.46 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $771.3 billion by 2033.
- The U.S. soft drinks market (including carbonated soft drinks, bottled water, etc.) was $293.5 billion in 2024 and is expected to grow to $545.2 billion by 2032.
- The global breakfast cereals market was valued at $65.23 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $104.07 billion by 2032.
- North America's breakfast cereals market was valued at $17.40 billion in 2024.
- The U.S. breakfast cereal market is projected to reach an estimated value of $20.82 billion by 2032.
- The global savory snacks market was $285.85 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $406.52 billion by 2032.
- The U.S. North America savory snacks market was valued at $37.59 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach $62.25 billion by 2030.
- The North America extruded snack food market was valued at $9.36 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach $12.65 billion by 2033.
- The U.S. functional drinks market generated a revenue of $48.47 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach $77.97 billion by 2030.
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- International Market Expansion: PepsiCo expects continued strong growth from its international segments, particularly across Latin America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region. These markets are consistently highlighted as key growth engines, driven by broad-based demand for both snacks and beverages, and are seen as offsetting challenges in North America.
- Product Portfolio Innovation and Diversification: The company plans to accelerate organic revenue growth through evolving its product portfolio. This includes launching significant protein beverages, expanding its zero-sugar and "better-for-you" options, and deepening its presence in the energy drink category with brands like Rockstar and Celsius, as well as extending its Gatorade platform for sports hydration. Innovation also extends to flavor and format across its snack brands, including limited-time premium SKUs and portion-controlled packs.
- Strategic Pricing and Affordability Initiatives: PepsiCo anticipates driving revenue growth through its pricing power, which has historically helped offset volume fluctuations. The company also emphasizes a focus on affordability and innovation to support sales, especially in environments with cautious consumer spending.
- Productivity and Supply Chain Optimization: Significant productivity savings are expected through automation, digitalization, simplification initiatives, and the rationalization of warehouse infrastructure and manufacturing nodes. While primarily impacting margins, these efficiencies allow for reinvestment into growth initiatives, better service levels, and competitive pricing, indirectly supporting revenue expansion. PepsiCo aims for a record year of productivity savings in 2026.
- Expansion in Away-From-Home and E-commerce Channels: PepsiCo is strategically focusing on expanding its away-from-home business, which represents a higher-margin opportunity for both beverages and snacks. Additionally, the company is investing in digital activations and distribution to increase penetration in urban and rural e-commerce channels.
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Share Repurchases
- PepsiCo plans to return approximately $1.0 billion to shareholders through share repurchases in 2025.
- The company executed $1.0 billion in share repurchases in both 2024 and 2023.
- A new $10 billion share repurchase program was authorized on February 3, 2026, set to expire on February 28, 2030, which superseded a previous $10 billion program announced in February 2022.
Inbound Investments
- Activist investor Elliott Investment Management disclosed a substantial stake of approximately $4 billion in PepsiCo in September 2025.
Outbound Investments
- In March 2025, PepsiCo acquired Poppy, a prebiotic soda company, for $1.95 billion.
- The company invested $1.2 billion in October 2024 to acquire C8 Foods, known for its grain-free snacks.
- PepsiCo made a strategic investment of $550 million in Celsius, an energy drink company, in 2022.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for fiscal year 2025 were -$4.42 billion, following $5.318 billion in 2024 and a peak of $5.518 billion in 2023.
- For 2026, capital spending is expected to be below 5% of net revenue.
- The primary focus of capital expenditures includes investments in capacity for faster-growing markets, cold-channel beverage execution, automation, and digital initiatives, alongside optimizing the North American supply chain and go-to-market systems.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| Where Analysts Pushed Back On PEP's Latest Call | 07/14/2026 | |
| PepsiCo Earnings Notes | 07/08/2026 | |
| Years of Rewards: $39 Bil From PepsiCo Stock | 06/02/2026 | |
| CELH, COKE Look Smarter Buy Than PepsiCo Stock | 05/20/2026 | |
| Should You Buy PepsiCo Stock? | 04/17/2026 | |
| Why COKE May Be Better Than PepsiCo Stock | 02/07/2026 | |
| PEP Stock Surges 15% In A 7-day Winning Spree On Earnings Beat And Buyback | 02/07/2026 | |
| PEP Stock Falls -5% With A 6-day Losing Spree On Technical Breakdown | 01/08/2026 | |
| 3 Reasons PepsiCo Stock Could Tumble | 12/24/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| Where Analysts Pushed Back On PEP Stock’s Latest Earnings Call | 07/14/2026 | |
| Is Pepsi Stock Hiding A Deeper U.S. Problem? | 07/13/2026 | |
| How Will PepsiCo Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | 07/08/2026 | |
| Own PepsiCo For Beverage Growth? Keurig Dr Pepper’s Case Is Stronger | 07/02/2026 | |
| COKE Looks Smarter Buy Than PepsiCo Stock | 05/20/2026 |
Research & Analysis
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Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 74.95 |
| Mkt Cap | 142.5 |
| Rev LTM | 29,023 |
| Op Inc LTM | 4,096 |
| FCF LTM | 2,567 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 2,674 |
| CFO LTM | 3,331 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 3,679 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 6.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 4.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 6.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 1.6% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 7.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 18.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 19.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 0.2% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 13.0% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 14.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 9.4% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 9.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 142.5 |
| P/S | 4.3 |
| P/Op Inc | 18.4 |
| P/EBIT | 16.7 |
| P/E | 24.7 |
| P/CFO | 21.8 |
| Total Yield | 7.0% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.9% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.0% |
| D/E | 0.2 |
| Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -2.2% |
| 3M Rtn | 6.2% |
| 6M Rtn | 11.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 2.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | -5.6% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -1.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 0.9% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 6.8% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -17.4% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -65.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA) | 28,197 | 27,769 | 27,626 | 26,213 | 25,276 |
| PepsiCo Foods North America (PFNA) | 27,528 | 27,431 | 28,015 | ||
| Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) | 18,025 | 16,658 | 16,210 | ||
| Latin America Foods (LatAm Foods) | 10,549 | 10,568 | 10,576 | ||
| International Beverages Franchise (IB Franchise) | 4,997 | 4,879 | 4,559 | ||
| Asia Pacific Foods | 4,629 | 4,549 | 4,485 | ||
| Africa, Middle East and South Asia (AMESA) | 6,438 | 6,078 | |||
| Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand and China region (APAC) | 4,787 | 4,615 | |||
| Europe | 12,724 | 13,038 | |||
| Frito-Lay North America (FLNA) | 23,291 | 19,608 | |||
| Latin America (LatAm) | 9,779 | 8,108 | |||
| Quaker Foods North America (QFNA) | 3,160 | 2,751 | |||
| Corporate unallocated expenses | 0 | ||||
| Total | 93,925 | 91,854 | 91,471 | 86,392 | 79,474 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PepsiCo Foods North America (PFNA) | 6,173 | 6,619 | 7,247 | ||
| Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) | 2,106 | 1,971 | 1,764 | ||
| Latin America Foods (LatAm Foods) | 2,010 | 2,052 | 1,898 | ||
| International Beverages Franchise (IB Franchise) | 1,769 | 1,462 | 567 | ||
| PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA) | 1,089 | 2,302 | 2,584 | 5,426 | 2,442 |
| Asia Pacific Foods | 369 | 377 | 301 | ||
| Corporate unallocated expenses | -2,018 | -1,896 | -2,375 | -2,103 | -1,683 |
| Africa, Middle East and South Asia (AMESA) | 666 | 858 | |||
| Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand and China region (APAC) | 537 | 673 | |||
| Europe | -1,380 | 1,292 | |||
| Frito-Lay North America (FLNA) | 6,135 | 5,633 | |||
| Latin America (LatAm) | 1,627 | 1,369 | |||
| Quaker Foods North America (QFNA) | 604 | 578 | |||
| Total | 11,498 | 12,887 | 11,986 | 11,512 | 11,162 |
| $ Mil | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA) | 41,355 | 40,286 | 37,801 | 37,079 | 31,449 |
| Europe | 15,615 | 16,230 | 18,472 | 17,917 | 17,814 |
| Frito-Lay North America (FLNA) | 12,176 | 11,042 | 9,763 | 8,730 | 7,519 |
| Latin America (LatAm) | 9,281 | 7,886 | 7,272 | 6,977 | 7,007 |
| Corporate | 8,850 | 6,189 | 9,482 | 6,032 | |
| Africa, Middle East and South Asia (AMESA) | 6,389 | 6,143 | 6,125 | 5,942 | 3,672 |
| Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand and China region (APAC) | 5,630 | 5,452 | 5,654 | 5,770 | 4,113 |
| Quaker Foods North America (QFNA) | 1,199 | 1,245 | 1,101 | 1,021 | 941 |
| Corporate unallocated expenses | 3,903 | ||||
| Total | 100,495 | 92,187 | 92,377 | 92,918 | 78,547 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $139.56 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 190.6 | |
| First Trading Date | 06/01/1972 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -16.5% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $141.18 | $147.57 |
| DMA Trend | indeterminate | down |
| Distance from DMA | -1.1% | -5.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 24.9% | 21.4% |
| Downside Capture | -62.35 | -60.75 |
| Upside Capture | -100.41 | -42.12 |
| Correlation (SPY) | -26.1% | -15.6% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | -0.78 | -0.44 | -0.47 | -0.19 | -0.25 | 0.10 |
| Up Beta | -2.62 | -0.68 | -0.30 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 0.27 |
| Down Beta | 1.16 | 0.34 | 0.31 | 0.40 | -0.04 | 0.09 |
| Up Capture | -59% | -67% | -82% | -35% | -22% | -1% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 11 | 22 | 35 | 67 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 29 | 57 | 118 | 360 |
| Down Capture | -117% | -64% | -72% | -67% | -93% | 7% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 28 | 59 | 114 | 326 |
| Stock -ve Days | 12 | 22 | 34 | 69 | 134 | 392 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PEP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP | 1.6% | 21.6% | -0.02 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.9% | 14.2% | 0.31 | 69.3% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.8% | 12.9% | 1.07 | -15.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 23.6% | 28.1% | 0.74 | 2.2% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 30.2% | 19.7% | 1.22 | -12.7% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 13.7% | 13.9% | 0.69 | 34.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -46.8% | 43.0% | -1.34 | -12.7% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PEP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP | 0.8% | 18.8% | -0.06 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 6.2% | 13.6% | 0.24 | 75.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.6% | 17.1% | 0.56 | 25.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 17.1% | 18.5% | 0.75 | 3.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 9.0% | 19.5% | 0.35 | -0.6% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 2.5% | 18.9% | 0.03 | 41.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 13.4% | 53.3% | 0.43 | 3.7% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with PEP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEP | 5.7% | 19.8% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLP) | 7.2% | 14.9% | 0.35 | 82.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.0% | 17.9% | 0.71 | 48.6% |
| Gold (GLD) | 11.3% | 16.1% | 0.57 | 7.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 7.3% | 18.0% | 0.32 | 9.8% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.9% | 20.7% | 0.20 | 54.6% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 57.6% | 66.2% | 0.98 | 7.4% |
Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 7/20/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/9/2026 | -0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 4/16/2026 | -0.4% | -1.7% | -5.8% |
| 2/3/2026 | 2.0% | 2.5% | -1.3% |
| 10/9/2025 | 3.7% | 5.5% | -1.2% |
| 7/17/2025 | -1.5% | -0.6% | 3.4% |
| 4/24/2025 | -1.4% | -1.3% | -4.4% |
| 2/4/2025 | 1.5% | 1.5% | 7.7% |
| 10/8/2024 | 1.2% | 3.2% | -3.4% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 18 | 16 | 12 |
| # Negative | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.7% |
| Median Negative | -0.8% | -1.3% | -2.5% |
| Max Positive | 3.7% | 5.5% | 8.7% |
| Max Negative | -1.9% | -3.1% | -6.8% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/9/2026 | -0.3% | 1.1% | |
| 4/16/2026 | -0.4% | -1.7% | -5.8% |
| 2/3/2026 | 2.0% | 2.5% | -1.3% |
| 10/9/2025 | 3.7% | 5.5% | -1.2% |
| 7/17/2025 | -1.5% | -0.6% | 3.4% |
| 4/24/2025 | -1.4% | -1.3% | -4.4% |
| 2/4/2025 | 1.5% | 1.5% | 7.7% |
| 10/8/2024 | 1.2% | 3.2% | -3.4% |
| 7/11/2024 | 1.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% |
| 4/23/2024 | 3.6% | 2.7% | 6.3% |
| 2/9/2024 | 1.8% | -0.8% | -1.1% |
| 10/10/2023 | 1.9% | -0.2% | 3.6% |
| 7/13/2023 | 0.4% | 0.9% | -1.9% |
| 4/25/2023 | -0.6% | 1.3% | -2.5% |
| 2/9/2023 | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% |
| 10/12/2022 | 3.1% | 2.3% | 7.3% |
| 7/12/2022 | 0.4% | 0.3% | 3.8% |
| 4/26/2022 | 0.9% | -3.1% | -2.5% |
| 2/10/2022 | 0.1% | -1.0% | -6.8% |
| 10/5/2021 | 2.6% | 3.9% | 8.7% |
| 7/13/2021 | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| 4/15/2021 | 1.3% | 2.6% | 3.0% |
| 2/11/2021 | -0.8% | -1.8% | -0.7% |
| 10/1/2020 | -1.9% | -2.1% | -5.3% |
| 7/13/2020 | 0.3% | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 18 | 16 | 12 |
| # Negative | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| Median Positive | 1.5% | 2.1% | 3.7% |
| Median Negative | -0.8% | -1.3% | -2.5% |
| Max Positive | 3.7% | 5.5% | 8.7% |
| Max Negative | -1.9% | -3.1% | -6.8% |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/10/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/9/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Core Constant Currency EPS Growth | 4.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Core Annual Effective Tax Rate | 22.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 22.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Spending | 0.05 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.05 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow Conversion Ratio | 0.8 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.8 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Total Cash Returns to Shareholders | 8.90 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 8.90 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Dividends | 7.90 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.90 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 1.00 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Net Revenue Growth | 4.0% | 5.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | ||
| 2026 Core EPS Growth | 5.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 6.0% for 2026 | ||
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/16/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 3.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Core Constant Currency EPS Growth | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Core Annual Effective Tax Rate | 22.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 22.0% for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Capital Spending | 0.05 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.05 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow Conversion Ratio | 0.8 | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.8 for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Total Cash Returns to Shareholders | 8.90 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 8.90 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Dividends | 7.90 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.90 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 1.00 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2026 | |||
| 2026 Net Revenue Growth | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 5.0% for 2026 | |
| 2026 Core EPS Growth | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 6.0% for 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 2/3/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Organic Revenue Growth | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | ||||
| 2026 Core Constant Currency EPS Growth | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | ||||
| 2026 Core Annual Effective Tax Rate | 22.0% | ||||||
| 2026 Capital Spending | 0.05 | ||||||
| 2026 Free Cash Flow Conversion Ratio | 0.8 | ||||||
| 2026 Total Cash Returns to Shareholders | 8.90 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Dividends | 7.90 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Share Repurchases | 1.00 Bil | ||||||
| 2026 Net Revenue Growth | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | ||||
| 2026 Core EPS Growth | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% | ||||
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/9/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2025 Organic Revenue Growth | 2.0% | -0.5% | Lowered | Guidance: 2.5% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Core Constant Currency EPS Growth | 0.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 0.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Core Annual Effective Tax Rate | 20.0% | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 20.0% for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Total Cash Returns to Shareholders | 8.60 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 8.60 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Dividends | 7.60 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 7.60 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Share Repurchases | 1.00 Bil | 0.0% | Affirmed | Guidance: 1.00 Bil for 2025 | |||
| 2025 Core EPS Growth | -0.5% | 1.0% | Raised | Guidance: -1.5% for 2025 | |||
Insider Activity
Updated 7/29/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flavell, David | EVP, Gen Counsel & Corp Sec | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 139.54 | 2,900 | 404,674 | 10,441,283 | Form |
| 2 | Willemsen, Eugene | CEO, International Beverages | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 164.46 | 3,798 | 624,600 | 10,427,598 | Form |
| 3 | Willemsen, Eugene | CEO, International Beverages | Non-U.S. Company | Sell | 3062026 | 164.44 | 2,702 | 444,323 | 3,345,085 | Form |
| 4 | Laguarta, Ramon | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 167.39 | 27,945 | 4,677,610 | 87,316,226 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flavell, David | EVP, Gen Counsel & Corp Sec | Direct | Sell | 7292026 | 139.54 | 2,900 | 404,674 | 10,441,283 | Form |
| 2 | Willemsen, Eugene | CEO, International Beverages | Direct | Sell | 3062026 | 164.46 | 3,798 | 624,600 | 10,427,598 | Form |
| 3 | Willemsen, Eugene | CEO, International Beverages | Non-U.S. Company | Sell | 3062026 | 164.44 | 2,702 | 444,323 | 3,345,085 | Form |
| 4 | Laguarta, Ramon | Chairman and CEO | Direct | Sell | 3032026 | 167.39 | 27,945 | 4,677,610 | 87,316,226 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Aug 2, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lindsell Train Ltd | $198.3 Mil | 6.3% | 27 | TRIM -29.1% | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $166.6 Mil | 5.4% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $73.4 Mil | 4.2% | 47 | New | 13F |
| Coerente Capital Management | $22.2 Mil | 4.1% | 47 | Hold | 13F |
| WELLCOME TRUST LTD (THE) as trustee of the WELLCOME TRUST | $310.6 Mil | 3.8% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Eldred Rock Partners, LLC | $14.1 Mil | 3.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Coleford Investment Management Ltd. | $14.1 Mil | 3.5% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Holowesko Partners Ltd. | $9.8 Mil | 2.7% | 31 | New | 13F |
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $370.4 Mil | 2.6% | 44 | TRIM -5.6% | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $8.2 Mil | 2.4% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Fluent Financial, LLC | $5.5 Mil | 2.0% | 43 | TRIM -19.6% | 13F |
| Saratoga Research & Investment Management | $26.9 Mil | 1.5% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Elliott Investment Management L.P. | $198.0 Mil | 1.2% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $30.5 Mil | 0.9% | 30 | TRIM -22.3% | 13F |
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $23.3 Mil | 0.9% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $275.4 Mil | 0.3% | 44 | TRIM -58.2% | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | As Of | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vantage Wealth | $18.8 Mil | 4.1% | 30 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| HS Management Partners, LLC | $8.1 Mil | 1.7% | 24 | Exited | Dec 31, 2025 | 13F |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $275.4 Mil | 0.3% | 44 | TRIM -58.2% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Lindsell Train Ltd | $198.3 Mil | 6.3% | 27 | TRIM -29.1% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $30.5 Mil | 0.9% | 30 | TRIM -22.3% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Fluent Financial, LLC | $5.5 Mil | 2.0% | 43 | TRIM -19.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $370.4 Mil | 2.6% | 44 | TRIM -5.6% | Mar 31, 2026 | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PineStone Asset Management Inc. | $370.4 Mil | 2.6% | 44 | TRIM -5.6% | 13F |
| WELLCOME TRUST LTD (THE) as trustee of the WELLCOME TRUST | $310.6 Mil | 3.8% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Sanders Capital, LLC | $275.4 Mil | 0.3% | 44 | TRIM -58.2% | 13F |
| Lindsell Train Ltd | $198.3 Mil | 6.3% | 27 | TRIM -29.1% | 13F |
| Elliott Investment Management L.P. | $198.0 Mil | 1.2% | 19 | Hold | 13F |
| Focused Investors LLC | $166.6 Mil | 5.4% | 22 | Hold | 13F |
| Contrarius Group Holdings Ltd | $73.4 Mil | 4.2% | 47 | New | 13F |
| Troy Asset Management Ltd | $30.5 Mil | 0.9% | 30 | TRIM -22.3% | 13F |
| Saratoga Research & Investment Management | $26.9 Mil | 1.5% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc. | $23.3 Mil | 0.9% | 21 | Hold | 13F |
| Coerente Capital Management | $22.2 Mil | 4.1% | 47 | Hold | 13F |
| Eldred Rock Partners, LLC | $14.1 Mil | 3.6% | 31 | Hold | 13F |
| Coleford Investment Management Ltd. | $14.1 Mil | 3.5% | 24 | Hold | 13F |
| Holowesko Partners Ltd. | $9.8 Mil | 2.7% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Haverford Financial Services, Inc. | $8.2 Mil | 2.4% | 46 | Hold | 13F |
| Fluent Financial, LLC | $5.5 Mil | 2.0% | 43 | TRIM -19.6% | 13F |
PEP Trade Sentinel
Neutral / Watch
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is neutral as PepsiCo's strong, profitable international business is funding a necessary but unproven turnaround in North America. Recent results missed key operational targets, with PFNA volume flat in Q2 despite price investments. The story now hinges on management delivering a guided 'gradual improvement' in the second half of 2026.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Consumer StaplesVolume x Price/Mix Operating leverage from volume growth and productivity initiatives, balanced against input cost inflation and strategic price investments.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests a challenging but viable path to reigniting US volume growth, funded by a highly profitable international segment.
- Global volumes grew 3% in foods and 2% in beverages in H1 2026.
- The international business is described as 'profit accretive' and a 'big driver of growth'.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin expanded 1.5 percentage points.
- Management affirmed full-year 2026 guidance for revenue and EPS growth.
PRIMARY RISK
The core risk is that price investments fail to stimulate sufficient demand from a weak US consumer, leading to margin compression without a corresponding volume lift.
- PFNA segment volume was flat in Q2 2026 despite affordability initiatives.
- The US consumer is 'worse than what we had anticipated' per management.
- PBNA segment operating margin was down about 90 basis points in Q2.
- Full-year EPS may be 'towards the low end of the EPS range'.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Organic Revenue Growth | 2% organic revenue growth for Q2 2026 - Decelerating | Management attributed the slowdown to a "softer North America business than we expected in Q2" amid rising inflationary pressures. However, they noted that the international business remains strong. |
| Organic Volume Growth | 1% organic volume growth for Q2 2026 - Turning around | Despite being flat, management characterized this performance as the "fastest growth in volume since 2022," indicating a significant turnaround from a period of likely volume declines. The return to positive volume was a key strategic goal for the company. |
| Physical or unit volume | Grew 3% in foods and 2% in beverages globally (First half of 2026) | Measures consumer demand for products at the consumer level and is a key metric used by management for operating and strategic decisions. |
International Engine vs. NA Drag
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe the highly profitable international business, where operating margin grew a full point in Q2, provides the cash to successfully restart volume growth in the core US market.
CORE TENSION
Can the 'profit accretive' international segment offset the North American reinvestment, where Q2 PFNA volume was flat despite the spending?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bears. The -4.0% stock reaction to Q2 results shows the market is focused on the North American miss, not the international strength.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue the North American business, where PFNA volume was flat and revenue fell 2% in Q2, is a capital sink that will drag down overall results as investments fail to pay off.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
9/15/2026 | Peer Read-Through on Consumer Watch: General Mills' commentary on the North American consumer environment, input costs, and retail channel performance. |
10/7/2026 | North America Consumer Slowdown Watch: Whether the guided "gradual improvement" in North America materializes in Q3 results and Q4 outlook. |
10/19/2026 | Coca-Cola Earnings Report Watch: Peer Coca-Cola (KO) is scheduled to report earnings. |
10/26/2026 | Mondelez Earnings Report Watch: Peer Mondelez International (MDLZ) is scheduled to report earnings. |
No set date | Commodity Cost Headwinds Watch: Management commentary on specific commodity costs and the effectiveness of offsets like tariff refunds and productivity initiatives. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-07-17 | Quarterly Dividend Increased Details: The Board of Directors declared a quarterly dividend of $1.48 per share, a 4 percent increase versus the comparable year-earlier period. | -2.8% $139.43 -> $135.46 |
2026-07-09 | Q2 Results and Negative Reaction Details: The company reported Q2 2026 earnings and affirmed full-year guidance. The two-day stock reaction was -4.0% versus +1.0% for the S&P 500. | -3.6% $142.51 -> $137.38 |
2026-06-26 | Analyst Trims EPS Outlook Details: Ahead of Q2 results, Bank of America analysts lowered their fiscal 2026 EPS estimate to $8.61 from $8.65, citing softer-than-expected performance in the North American snacks business. | -0.6% $139.52 -> $138.68 |
2026-04-22 | Google Cloud AI Partnership Details: PepsiCo announced a strategic, multi-year collaboration with Google Cloud to strengthen its digital foundation and leverage Gemini Enterprise Agent Platform to advance its multi-cloud strategy. | +0.5% $153.31 -> $154.08 |
2026-04-16 | Q1 Earnings Show Turnaround Details: The company delivered a strong Q1, beating revenue and EPS estimates with 8.5% YoY revenue growth. The two-day stock reaction was +2.0%. | +1.8% $153.24 -> $156.03 |
2026-03-29 | Activist Stake Disclosed Details: News emerged of Elliott Management's ~$4B activist stake. The activist is reportedly focused on SKU rationalization and price resets to drive volume and margin expansion. | +4.0% $149.26 -> $155.19 |
2026-02-03 | Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations Details: The company reported Q4 2025 results, leading to a two-day stock reaction of +7.0%. Management announced price cuts of up to 15% were planned. | +7.1% $152.22 -> $162.99 |
Position Sizing
2% - 4%
REDUCED POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: PEP trades at roughly 25% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 15% for the S&P 500 (1.7x the market), around the 90th percentile of its own trailing year. A 2% - 4% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
KO - Coca-Cola
Pure-play beverage leaderCoca-Cola offers a higher-margin business (31.6% vs. 15%) focused on beverages and has demonstrated superior execution, gaining value share for 20 consecutive quarters.
MNST - Monster Beverage
High-growth category specialistMonster Beverage provides concentrated exposure to the high-growth energy drink category, with trailing-twelve-month revenue growth of 18.1% versus PepsiCo's 5.6%.
A tale of two businesses: a scaled, high-margin international growth engine funding a strategic reinvestment to reignite volume in the massive but mature North American market.
PepsiCo is leveraging its highly profitable and rapidly growing international segments to fund a significant 'affordability' and innovation push in North America. The core thesis hinges on whether these investments can successfully restart volume growth in the core U.S. foods and beverage businesses against a backdrop of a pressured consumer. The international business provides a strong, diversified foundation, but the market's focus is on the execution and ROI of the North American turnaround.
Sustained volume growth in PFNA and PBNA, continued mid-to-high single-digit growth in international segments, and expansion of consolidated operating margins.
Failure of North American price investments to drive volume, leading to margin compression, or a material slowdown in key international markets like EMEA or Mexico.
Short-term commodity price fluctuations that are within the company's hedged outlook.
Repricing Catalyst
Evidence of a successful volume inflection in the North American segments in the second half of 2026, proving the ROI of the company's strategic price investments.
PepsiCo Foods North America (PFNA)
$27.6B TTM (29% of Total) · 22% MarginWhat It Is
Sells convenient foods including cereals, chips, dips, and oatmeal under brands like Cheetos, Doritos, Fritos, Lay's, Quaker, and Tostitos to independent distributors and retailers in the United States and Canada.
Who Pays & How
Independent distributors and retailers pay for products to stock their stores, driven by strong consumer demand for well-known snack and food brands.
Competition
PepsiCo Beverages North America (PBNA)
$28.7B TTM (30% of Total) · 5% MarginWhat It Is
Sells beverage concentrates, fountain syrups, and finished goods under brands like Pepsi, Gatorade, and Mountain Dew to authorized/independent bottlers, independent distributors, and retailers in the United States and Canada.
Who Pays & How
Retailers, distributors, and bottlers pay for beverage products and concentrates to meet consumer demand for a wide portfolio of well-known carbonated and non-carbonated drinks.
Competition
Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA)
$18.5B TTM (19% of Total) · 12% MarginWhat It Is
Sells convenient food brands (Lay's, Doritos, Quaker) and beverage brands (Pepsi, 7UP) through consolidated businesses and noncontrolled affiliates to independent distributors and retailers.
Who Pays & How
Distributors and retailers pay for a portfolio of food and beverage products to serve consumers across a wide and diverse geographic region.
Competition
Latin America Foods (LatAm Foods)
$10.8B TTM (11% of Total) · 19% MarginWhat It Is
Sells convenient food brands including Cheetos, Doritos, Lay's, Quaker, and local brands like Marias Gamesa and Sabritas.
Who Pays & How
Distributors and retailers pay for a portfolio of globally recognized and local snack brands to meet consumer demand in Latin America.
Competition
International Beverages Franchise (IB Franchise)
$5.1B TTM (5% of Total) · 36% MarginWhat It Is
Sells beverage concentrates (7UP, Gatorade, Pepsi, Mirinda) to authorized and independent bottlers, and also manufactures and distributes SodaStream products.
Who Pays & How
Authorized and independent bottlers pay for concentrates to manufacture, sell, and distribute finished beverages under exclusive contracts for specific geographic areas.
Competition
Asia Pacific Foods
$4.7B TTM (5% of Total) · 9% MarginWhat It Is
Sells convenient food brands including Lay's, Doritos, and local brands like Kurkure and Smith's through consolidated businesses and noncontrolled affiliates.
Who Pays & How
Distributors and retailers pay for a portfolio of snack brands to serve consumers in Asia Pacific, China, Australia, and New Zealand.
Competition
PepsiCo — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Consumer Staples Resources |
| FoodNavigator |
| Consumer Goods Technology (CGT) |
| Beverage Digest |
| Soft Drinks & Non-alcoholic Beverages Resources |
| Beverage Daily |
| BevNET |
| Beverage Industry |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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