Paychex (PAYX)
Market Price (11/21/2025): $109.21 | Market Cap: $39.4 BilSector: Industrials | Industry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Paychex (PAYX)
Market Price (11/21/2025): $109.21Market Cap: $39.4 BilSector: IndustrialsIndustry: Human Resource & Employment Services
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.8% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -66% | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40% | ||
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 7.9%, Dividend Yield is 3.7%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 3.8% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 40% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 34%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 24% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cloud Computing, Fintech & Digital Payments, and Automation & Robotics. Themes include Software as a Service (SaaS), Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -46%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -66% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
PAYX Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
The stock of Paychex (PAYX) experienced a significant decline of 24.1% between July 31, 2025, and November 21, 2025, influenced by several key factors.
1. Mixed Fiscal Year 2026 Guidance. Paychex's announcement on June 25, 2025, of its mixed guidance for fiscal year 2026 contributed to investor caution. The company projected total revenue growth between 16.5% and 18.5%, which trailed the average analyst estimate of 18.8%. This outlook was notably impacted by challenges stemming from the Paycor acquisition and the discontinuation of the Employee Retention Tax Credit (ERTC) program, both of which were anticipated to pressure profit margins.
2. Operating Margin Compression. A notable decline in the company's operating margins raised concerns among investors. The adjusted operating margin fell to 40.4% in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, down from 46.9% in the preceding quarter. This trend continued into the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, where the operating margin stood at 35.2%, a decrease from 41.5% in the same period last year. This compression was largely attributed to increased costs associated with the Paycor acquisition and ongoing integration efforts.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| PAYX Return | 13% | 50% | -13% | 6% | 21% | -20% | 52% |
| Peers Return | 40% | -13% | -24% | 44% | -7% | 9% | 35% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| PAYX Win Rate | 75% | 67% | 42% | 42% | 75% | 40% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 67% | 54% | 48% | 60% | 48% | 55% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| PAYX Max Drawdown | -40% | -7% | -19% | -8% | -2% | -18% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -40% | -36% | -34% | -7% | -23% | -14% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ADP, BR, GPN, STNE, ELCG. See PAYX Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/20/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | PAYX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -25.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 34.0% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 537 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -44.2% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 79.1% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 231 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -18.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 22.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 51 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -55.9% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 126.7% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2062 days | 1480 days |
Compare to ADP, BR, GPN, STNE, ELCG
In The Past
Paychex's stock fell -25.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 4/6/2022. A -25.4% loss requires a 34.0% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| Paychex Earnings Notes | |||
| Paychex Stock Hits Key Support - Buying Opportunity? | Actionable | ||
| Is Paychex Stock Built to Withstand More Downside? | Return | ||
| null | |||
| Better Bet Than PAYX Stock: Pay Less Than Paychex To Get More From GOOGL, UNH | |||
| Better Bet Than PAYX Stock: Pay Less Than Paychex To Get More From WM, GD | |||
| PAYX Dip Buy Analysis | |||
| Paychex Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 38.6% in 2025 and 14.7% 3-yr compounded annual returns (above peer average) | |||
| Paychex (PAYX) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
| Paychex (PAYX) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | November 18th, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | November 1st, 2025 | ||
| S&P 500 Stocks Trading At 52-Week Low | September 25th, 2025 | ||
| PAYX At Price Support Zone, Right Time To Buy? | August 22nd, 2025 | ||
| Buy The Dip As Paychex Drops 10%? | June 27th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to PAYX. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.4% | -12.4% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.1% | -8.1% | -8.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -14.2% | -14.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -12.2% | -12.2% | -12.2% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.5% | -4.5% | -10.5% |
| 12312022 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.7% | 6.2% | -8.2% |
| 03312020 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.2% | 61.0% | -5.4% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | GEO | GEO | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -12.4% | -12.4% | -14.1% |
| 10312025 | GPN | Global Payments | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -8.1% | -8.1% | -8.1% |
| 10312025 | RUN | Sunrun | Special | Short Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze PotentialHas potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt. | -14.2% | -14.2% | -17.5% |
| 10312025 | PLPC | Preformed Line Products | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -12.2% | -12.2% | -12.2% |
| 10172025 | VRSK | Verisk Analytics | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -4.5% | -4.5% | -10.5% |
| 12312022 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -1.7% | 6.2% | -8.2% |
| 03312020 | PAYX | Paychex | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 28.2% | 61.0% | -5.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Paychex
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 108.46 |
| Mkt Cap | 26.6 |
| Rev LTM | 10,680 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,208 |
| FCF LTM | 1,709 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 1,670 |
| CFO LTM | 1,901 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 1,835 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 8.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.8% |
| Rev Chg Q | 10.2% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.4% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 26.2% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 25.8% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 22.8% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.5% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 20.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 19.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 26.6 |
| P/S | 3.8 |
| P/EBIT | 17.1 |
| P/E | 23.6 |
| P/CFO | 19.8 |
| Total Yield | 6.5% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.6% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.7% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -14.1% |
| 3M Rtn | -16.4% |
| 6M Rtn | -5.0% |
| 12M Rtn | -14.8% |
| 3Y Rtn | 3.1% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -11.1% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -19.8% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -17.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | -25.6% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | -58.9% |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 9/30/2025 | -1.4% | -3.2% | -3.5% |
| 6/25/2025 | -9.4% | -3.2% | -2.1% |
| 3/26/2025 | 4.2% | 7.3% | 0.1% |
| 12/19/2024 | 1.4% | 5.0% | 6.6% |
| 10/1/2024 | 4.9% | 2.4% | 5.7% |
| 6/26/2024 | -6.1% | -5.3% | -0.8% |
| 4/2/2024 | 0.4% | 1.8% | -2.3% |
| 12/21/2023 | -7.0% | -6.5% | -3.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 15 | 13 |
| # Negative | 12 | 9 | 11 |
| Median Positive | 3.5% | 2.7% | 6.6% |
| Median Negative | -3.3% | -4.5% | -2.3% |
| Max Positive | 6.5% | 9.4% | 14.4% |
| Max Negative | -9.4% | -7.9% | -10.0% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 8312025 | 9302025 | 10-Q 8/31/2025 |
| 5312025 | 7112025 | 10-K 5/31/2025 |
| 2282025 | 3262025 | 10-Q 2/28/2025 |
| 11302024 | 12192024 | 10-Q 11/30/2024 |
| 8312024 | 10012024 | 10-Q 8/31/2024 |
| 5312024 | 7112024 | 10-K 5/31/2024 |
| 2292024 | 4022024 | 10-Q 2/29/2024 |
| 11302023 | 12212023 | 10-Q 11/30/2023 |
| 8312023 | 9282023 | 10-Q 8/31/2023 |
| 5312023 | 7142023 | 10-K 5/31/2023 |
| 2282023 | 3302023 | 10-Q 2/28/2023 |
| 11302022 | 12222022 | 10-Q 11/30/2022 |
| 8312022 | 9292022 | 10-Q 8/31/2022 |
| 5312022 | 7152022 | 10-K 5/31/2022 |
| 2282022 | 3312022 | 10-Q 2/28/2022 |
| 11302021 | 12222021 | 10-Q 11/30/2021 |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
