Okta (OKTA)
Market Price (11/30/2025): $80.33 | Market Cap: $14.1 BilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Application Software
Okta (OKTA)
Market Price (11/30/2025): $80.33Market Cap: $14.1 BilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Application Software
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -5.6% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 90x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 104x |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% | |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% | ||
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Identity Management, Cloud Security, Show more. |
| Cash is significant % of market capNet D/ENet Debt/Equity. Debt net of cash. Negative indicates net cash. Equity is taken as the Market Capitalization is -11% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 31%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 30% |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 47% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Cybersecurity, and Cloud Computing. Themes include Identity Management, Cloud Security, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -38%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -5.6% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/EBITPrice/EBIT or Price/(Operating Income) ratio is 90x, P/EPrice/Earnings or Price/(Net Income) is 104x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -3.3% |
Valuation, Metrics & Events
OKTA Stock
Why The Stock Moved
Qualitative Assessment
AI Generated Analysis | Feedback
Between approximately July 31, 2025, and November 30, 2025, Okta's (OKTA) stock experienced a decline of -17.6% due to several key factors:
**1. Lowered Revenue Growth Guidance**
Okta's guidance for its fiscal year 2026 revenue growth was set between 10-11%, which marked a decrease from the 15% growth reported in fiscal year 2025. This revised outlook, announced around the company's Q2 2026 earnings report in late August 2025, suggested a slowdown in growth, which can often lead to a negative investor reaction.
**2. Analyst Downgrades and Price Target Reductions**
Several financial analysts adjusted their ratings and significantly reduced their price targets for Okta during this period. For instance, BMO Capital lowered its price target from $132 to $112 on August 27, 2025, and Scotiabank dropped its target from $115 to $105 on the same date. Additionally, Barclays decreased its price objective from $112 to $95 on November 18, 2025, assigning an "equal weight" rating. These downgrades and target reductions likely contributed to negative market sentiment.
**3. Lingering Concerns from Security Breaches**
Despite the primary large-scale security incident affecting Okta's customer support system having been widely reported in late 2023, news and discussions about Okta's security breaches persisted within the July to November 2025 timeframe. Articles published during this period continued to reference "Okta security incident" and "Okta Breach: 2.5M accounts compromised," indicating ongoing concerns about the company's security posture and its potential impact on customer trust and future business.
**4. Insider Selling Exceeding USD 5 Million**
Significant insider selling occurred within 90 days leading up to late November 2025, with insiders selling approximately 64,975 shares valued at an estimated $6.0 million to $6.01 million. This included a notable transaction by the CFO. Such substantial insider sales can be interpreted by investors as a lack of confidence in the company's near-term prospects, contributing to downward stock pressure.
**5. Challenging Macroeconomic Conditions**
Broader economic factors also played a role. Reports from July 2025 highlighted "challenging macroeconomic conditions" and "uncertainty in the federal business" as headwinds for Okta. These larger economic pressures can suppress stock valuations across the market, including for growth-oriented companies like Okta.
Stock Movement Drivers
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| OKTA Return | 120% | -12% | -70% | 32% | -13% | 2% | -30% |
| Peers Return | 8% | 14% | -3% | 15% | 61% | 875% | 2045% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 111% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| OKTA Win Rate | 67% | 67% | 25% | 50% | 42% | 30% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 25% | 27% | 19% | 43% | 45% | 38% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| OKTA Max Drawdown | -17% | -22% | -80% | -5% | -22% | -1% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -8% | -2% | -9% | -19% | -5% | -19% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: MSFT, IBM, SAIL, BMR, BTTC. See OKTA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/26/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | OKTA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -84.6% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 548.1% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -31.1% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 45.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 29 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -35.5% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 55.1% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 58 days | 120 days |
Compare to MSFT, IBM, SAIL, BMR, BTTC
In The Past
Okta's stock fell -84.6% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 2/12/2021. A -84.6% loss requires a 548.1% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to OKTA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.0% | -7.0% | -15.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.9% | -0.9% | -4.0% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.7% | -6.7% | -8.2% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.4% | 2.4% | -5.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.3% | 4.3% | -8.9% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -7.0% | -7.0% | -15.2% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.9% | -0.9% | -4.0% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -6.7% | -6.7% | -8.2% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.4% | 2.4% | -5.0% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 4.3% | 4.3% | -8.9% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Okta
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 49.46 |
| Mkt Cap | 148.6 |
| Rev LTM | 2,763 |
| Op Inc LTM | 83 |
| FCF LTM | 6,346 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 11,753 |
| CFO LTM | 7,168 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 13,498 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.7% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 13.2% |
| Rev Chg Q | 15.6% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 3.7% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 3.0% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 16.4% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 1.4% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 25.7% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 23.2% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 22.3% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 22.4% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 148.6 |
| P/S | 9.7 |
| P/EBIT | 26.4 |
| P/E | 35.0 |
| P/CFO | 20.1 |
| Total Yield | 2.2% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.3% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | -0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -11.6% |
| 3M Rtn | -12.1% |
| 6M Rtn | -8.8% |
| 12M Rtn | 15.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 111.0% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -13.2% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -17.1% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -23.3% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 3.2% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 45.5% |
Comparison Analyses
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/26/2025 | 1.6% | -1.9% | -0.4% |
| 5/27/2025 | -16.2% | -17.5% | -21.8% |
| 3/3/2025 | 24.3% | 20.7% | 20.1% |
| 12/3/2024 | 5.4% | 1.3% | -1.2% |
| 8/28/2024 | -17.6% | -22.6% | -23.4% |
| 5/29/2024 | -7.8% | -8.1% | -2.9% |
| 2/28/2024 | 22.9% | 24.7% | 19.8% |
| 11/29/2023 | -2.5% | 0.1% | 25.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 12 | 12 | 11 |
| # Negative | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 9.0% | 8.5% | 13.2% |
| Median Negative | -7.9% | -11.3% | -7.8% |
| Max Positive | 26.5% | 24.7% | 28.2% |
| Max Negative | -33.7% | -31.4% | -37.8% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 8272025 | 10-Q 7/31/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5282025 | 10-Q 4/30/2025 |
| 1312025 | 3052025 | 10-K 1/31/2025 |
| 10312024 | 12042024 | 10-Q 10/31/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8292024 | 10-Q 7/31/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5302024 | 10-Q 4/30/2024 |
| 1312024 | 3012024 | 10-K 1/31/2024 |
| 10312023 | 12012023 | 10-Q 10/31/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8312023 | 10-Q 7/31/2023 |
| 4302023 | 6012023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 3032023 | 10-K 1/31/2023 |
| 10312022 | 12012022 | 10-Q 10/31/2022 |
| 7312022 | 9012022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 6032022 | 10-Q 4/30/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3072022 | 10-K 1/31/2022 |
| 10312021 | 12022021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
External Quote Links
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| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |