NVIDIA (NVDA)
Market Price (11/6/2025): $186.78 | Market Cap: $4.6 TrilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Market Price (11/6/2025): $186.78Market Cap: $4.6 TrilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 72% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 29x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 62x | |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 58% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6% | |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, CFO LTM is 77 Bil, FCF LTM is 72 Bil | ||
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 72% |
| Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 58% |
| Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, CFO LTM is 77 Bil, FCF LTM is 72 Bil |
| Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
| Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 29x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 62x |
| Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.6% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
NVDA Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| NVDA Return | 122% | 125% | -50% | 239% | 171% | 45% | 3233% |
| Peers Return | 38% | 61% | -53% | 62% | 4% | 160% | 359% |
| S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 110% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| NVDA Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 42% | 75% | 75% | 70% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 55% | 37% | 60% | 52% | 74% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 70% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| NVDA Max Drawdown | -16% | -11% | -62% | -2% | -4% | -30% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -11% | -59% | -10% | -15% | -31% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMD, MU, STX, WDC, AMBA. See NVDA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/5/2025 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | NVDA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 Inflation Shock | ||
| % Loss | -66.4% | -25.4% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 197.3% | 34.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 223 days | 464 days |
| 2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
| % Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 148 days |
| 2018 Correction | ||
| % Loss | -56.1% | -19.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 127.7% | 24.7% |
| Time to Breakeven | 417 days | 120 days |
| 2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -85.1% | -56.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 570.2% | 131.3% |
| Time to Breakeven | 2731 days | 1480 days |
Compare to AMD, MU, STX, WDC, AMBA
In The Past
NVIDIA's stock fell -66.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/29/2021. A -66.4% loss requires a 197.3% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Topic | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | |||
| How NVIDIA Stock Gained 70% | |||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for NVIDIA Stock with 15% Return (vs. 54% YTD) [10/29/2025] | Notification | ||
| NVDA Capital Return Hits $83 Bil in 10 Years | |||
| 3 Forces That Could Shake NVIDIA | |||
| Triggers That Might Ignite the Next Rally In NVIDIA Stock | |||
| NVIDIA Stock Dropped 5.7% - Have You Assessed the Risk | Return | ||
| Should You Buy NVIDIA Stock Despite Its High Valuation? | Buy or Fear | ||
| Why NVIDIA Stock Soared 80% Recently | |||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for NVIDIA Stock with 5.4% Return (vs. 39% YTD) [10/1/2025] | Notification | ||
| Day 5 of Gains Streak for NVIDIA Stock with 5.4% Return (vs. 39% YTD) [10/1/2025] | Notification | ||
| ARTICLES | |||
| NVIDIA Stock Surged 70%, Here’s Why | November 1st, 2025 | ||
| Does NVIDIA Stock Lead the Pack? | October 31st, 2025 | ||
| Where Does NVIDIA Stock Rank Among Competitors? | October 30th, 2025 | ||
| Broadcom vs NVIDIA: Which Stock Could Rally? | October 30th, 2025 | ||
| NVIDIA Stock 5-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 15% | October 30th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NVDA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.1% | -1.1% | -3.3% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.9% | -0.9% | -2.9% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.4% | -1.4% | -1.5% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 10.4% | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| 12312022 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 189.5% | 239.0% | -2.4% |
| 06302022 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -3.6% | 179.3% | -25.9% |
| 12312018 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 24.7% | 76.9% | -4.1% |
| Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10312025 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.1% | -1.1% | -3.3% |
| 10312025 | ACN | Accenture | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -0.9% | -0.9% | -2.9% |
| 10312025 | ADBE | Adobe | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -1.4% | -1.4% | -1.5% |
| 10312025 | TXN | Texas Instruments | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.3% | 1.3% | -1.3% |
| 10242025 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 10.4% | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| 12312022 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 189.5% | 239.0% | -2.4% |
| 06302022 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -3.6% | 179.3% | -25.9% |
| 12312018 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 24.7% | 76.9% | -4.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for NVIDIA
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 216.36 |
| Mkt Cap | 162.9 |
| Rev LTM | 22,653 |
| Op Inc LTM | 2,902 |
| FCF LTM | 1,474 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 359 |
| CFO LTM | 4,050 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 2,221 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 44.0% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.6% |
| Rev Chg Q | 40.8% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 9.1% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 21.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 4.3% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.1% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 17.5% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 10.1% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 162.9 |
| P/S | 8.9 |
| P/EBIT | 29.3 |
| P/E | 35.8 |
| P/CFO | 58.2 |
| Total Yield | 2.6% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
| D/E | 0.0 |
| Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | 19.0% |
| 3M Rtn | 72.5% |
| 6M Rtn | 171.7% |
| 12M Rtn | 103.5% |
| 3Y Rtn | 413.2% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | 20.7% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | 60.5% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | 151.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 91.3% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 354.6% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compute & Networking | 47,405 | 15,068 | 11,046 | 6,841 | 3,279 |
| Graphics | 13,517 | 11,906 | 15,868 | 9,834 | 7,639 |
| All Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total | 60,922 | 26,974 | 26,914 | 16,675 | 10,918 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compute & Networking | 32,016 | 5,083 | 4,598 | 2,548 | 751 |
| Graphics | 5,846 | 4,552 | 8,492 | 4,612 | 3,267 |
| All Other | -4,890 | -5,411 | -3,049 | -2,628 | -1,172 |
| Total | 32,972 | 4,224 | 10,041 | 4,532 | 2,846 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for More| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 8/27/2025 | -0.8% | -5.5% | -1.9% |
| 5/28/2025 | 3.2% | 5.3% | 17.0% |
| 2/26/2025 | -8.5% | -10.6% | -15.1% |
| 11/20/2024 | 0.5% | -7.2% | -7.7% |
| 8/28/2024 | -6.4% | -14.6% | -3.3% |
| 5/22/2024 | 9.3% | 16.4% | 24.4% |
| 2/21/2024 | 16.4% | 15.1% | 35.5% |
| 11/21/2023 | -2.5% | -3.6% | -1.9% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 14 | 15 | 11 |
| # Negative | 10 | 9 | 13 |
| Median Positive | 4.6% | 8.6% | 17.0% |
| Median Negative | -4.5% | -7.2% | -5.0% |
| Max Positive | 24.4% | 30.2% | 35.5% |
| Max Negative | -8.5% | -14.6% | -29.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 7312025 | 8272025 | 10-Q 7/27/2025 |
| 4302025 | 5282025 | 10-Q 4/27/2025 |
| 1312025 | 2262025 | 10-K 1/26/2025 |
| 10312024 | 11202024 | 10-Q 10/27/2024 |
| 7312024 | 8282024 | 10-Q 7/28/2024 |
| 4302024 | 5292024 | 10-Q 4/28/2024 |
| 1312024 | 2212024 | 10-K 1/28/2024 |
| 10312023 | 11212023 | 10-Q 10/29/2023 |
| 7312023 | 8282023 | 10-Q 7/30/2023 |
| 4302023 | 5262023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
| 1312023 | 2242023 | 10-K 1/29/2023 |
| 10312022 | 11182022 | 10-Q 10/30/2022 |
| 7312022 | 8312022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
| 4302022 | 5272022 | 10-Q 5/1/2022 |
| 1312022 | 3182022 | 10-K 1/30/2022 |
| 10312021 | 11222021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for More| Owner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | HUANG JEN HSUN | President and CEO | 10282025 | Sell | 184.24 | 5,156 | 949,944 | 12,874,359,330 | Form |
| 1 | Kress Colette | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | 10232025 | Sell | 180.41 | 4,351 | 784,952 | 519,401,817 | Form |
| 2 | HUANG JEN HSUN | President and CEO | 10232025 | Sell | 180.47 | 13,408 | 2,419,676 | 12,649,664,189 | Form |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
