NVIDIA (NVDA)
Market Price (10/18/2025): $183.39 | Market Cap: $4.5 TrilSector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors
NVIDIA (NVDA)
Market Price (10/18/2025): $183.39Market Cap: $4.5 TrilSector: Information TechnologyIndustry: Semiconductors
Investment Highlights
Why It Matters
Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?
1. Generates cash flow
The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.
2. Riding a trend
Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 72% | Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9%, Dist 3Y High is -4.9% | Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 27x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 58x |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 58% | Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% | |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, CFO LTM is 77 Bil, FCF LTM is 72 Bil | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 72% |
Attractive operating marginsOp Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 58% |
Attractive cash flow generationCFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 47%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 44%, CFO LTM is 77 Bil, FCF LTM is 72 Bil |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 49% |
Trading close to highsDist 52W High is -4.9%, Dist 3Y High is -4.9% |
Expensive valuation multiplesP/SPrice/Sales ratio is 27x, P/CFOPrice/(Cash Flow from Operations). CFO is cash before capital expenditures. is 58x |
Yield minus risk free rate is negativeERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is -2.5% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
NVDA Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
NVDA Return | 122% | 125% | -50% | 239% | 171% | 35% | 3027% |
Peers Return | 38% | 61% | -53% | 62% | 4% | 120% | 289% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
NVDA Win Rate | 75% | 58% | 42% | 75% | 75% | 67% | |
Peers Win Rate | 53% | 55% | 37% | 60% | 52% | 71% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
NVDA Max Drawdown | -16% | -11% | -62% | -2% | -4% | -30% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -35% | -11% | -59% | -10% | -15% | -31% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: AMD, MU, STX, WDC, AMBA. See NVDA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/17/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | NVDA | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -66.4% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 197.3% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | 223 days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -37.6% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 60.2% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 56 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -56.1% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 127.7% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 417 days | 120 days |
2008 Global Financial Crisis | ||
% Loss | -85.1% | -56.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 570.2% | 131.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 2731 days | 1480 days |
How Low Can It Go?
NVIDIA's stock fell -66.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/29/2021. A -66.4% loss requires a 197.3% gain to breakeven.
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Title | Topic | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
DASHBOARDS | |||
3 Forces That Could Shake Google | |||
NVIDIA Earnings Notes | |||
How Low Can NVIDIA Stock Really Go? | Return | ||
Should You Buy NVIDIA Stock Despite Its High Valuation? | Buy or Fear | ||
Why NVIDIA Stock Soared 80% Recently | |||
How Does NVIDIA Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | |||
NVDA Has Paid Out $83 Bil to Investors in the Past Decade | |||
Day 5 of Gains Streak for NVIDIA Stock with 5.4% Return (vs. 39% YTD) [10/1/2025] | Notification | ||
Day 5 of Gains Streak for NVIDIA Stock with 5.4% Return (vs. 39% YTD) [10/1/2025] | Notification | ||
Day 5 of Gains Streak for NVIDIA Stock with 5.8% Return (vs. 39% YTD) [10/1/2025] | Notification | ||
ARTICLES | |||
NVIDIA Stock To $235? | October 17th, 2025 | ||
Will You Be Comfortable Buying NVIDIA Stock? | October 15th, 2025 | ||
Marvell Technology vs NVIDIA: Which Stock Could Rally? | October 15th, 2025 | ||
NVIDIA vs Broadcom: Which Stock To Pick? | October 13th, 2025 | ||
MPWR Jumps 5.4% in a Day, But Does NVDA Offer Better Fundamentals? | October 7th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to NVDA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ADBE | Adobe | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.5% | -5.5% | -6.7% |
09302025 | CRM | Salesforce | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -0.6% |
09302025 | MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.1% | 9.1% | -1.8% |
09262025 | POWI | Power Integrations | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | -13.4% |
09262025 | ROP | Roper Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.2% | 1.2% | -0.3% |
12312022 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 189.5% | 239.0% | -2.4% |
06302022 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -3.6% | 179.3% | -25.9% |
12312018 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 24.7% | 76.9% | -4.1% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | ADBE | Adobe | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | -5.5% | -5.5% | -6.7% |
09302025 | CRM | Salesforce | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 2.6% | 2.6% | -0.6% |
09302025 | MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 9.1% | 9.1% | -1.8% |
09262025 | POWI | Power Integrations | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 13.6% | 13.6% | -13.4% |
09262025 | ROP | Roper Technologies | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 1.2% | 1.2% | -0.3% |
12312022 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 189.5% | 239.0% | -2.4% |
06302022 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | -3.6% | 179.3% | -25.9% |
12312018 | NVDA | NVIDIA | Dip Buy | DB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow MarginsBuying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap | 24.7% | 76.9% | -4.1% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for NVIDIA
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 192.80 |
Mkt Cap | 137.8 |
Rev LTM | 21,440 |
Op Inc LTM | 2,630 |
FCF LTM | 1,474 |
FCF 3Y Avg | 359 |
CFO LTM | 3,284 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 2,022 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 44.0% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 10.0% |
Rev Chg Q | 38.9% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 8.4% |
Op Mgn LTM | 21.1% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.6% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.1% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 15.8% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 12.4% |
FCF/Rev LTM | 10.1% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 137.8 |
P/S | 8.1 |
P/EBIT | 24.4 |
P/E | 29.8 |
P/CFO | 51.3 |
Total Yield | 3.0% |
Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 0.8% |
D/E | 0.0 |
Net D/E | 0.0 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 16.3% |
3M Rtn | 50.1% |
6M Rtn | 180.5% |
12M Rtn | 65.3% |
3Y Rtn | 336.5% |
1M Excs Rtn | 11.7% |
3M Excs Rtn | 44.1% |
6M Excs Rtn | 154.3% |
12M Excs Rtn | 57.2% |
3Y Excs Rtn | 255.7% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Compute & Networking | 47,405 | 15,068 | 11,046 | 6,841 | 3,279 |
Graphics | 13,517 | 11,906 | 15,868 | 9,834 | 7,639 |
All Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Total | 60,922 | 26,974 | 26,914 | 16,675 | 10,918 |
$ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Compute & Networking | 32,016 | 5,083 | 4,598 | 2,548 | 751 |
Graphics | 5,846 | 4,552 | 8,492 | 4,612 | 3,267 |
All Other | -4,890 | -5,411 | -3,049 | -2,628 | -1,172 |
Total | 32,972 | 4,224 | 10,041 | 4,532 | 2,846 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
8/27/2025 | -0.8% | -5.5% | -1.9% |
5/28/2025 | 3.2% | 5.3% | 17.0% |
2/26/2025 | -8.5% | -10.6% | -15.1% |
11/20/2024 | 0.5% | -7.2% | -7.7% |
8/28/2024 | -6.4% | -14.6% | -3.3% |
5/22/2024 | 9.3% | 16.4% | 24.4% |
2/21/2024 | 16.4% | 15.1% | 35.5% |
11/21/2023 | -2.5% | -3.6% | -1.9% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 14 | 15 | 11 |
# Negative | 10 | 9 | 13 |
Median Positive | 4.6% | 8.6% | 17.0% |
Median Negative | -4.5% | -7.2% | -5.0% |
Max Positive | 24.4% | 30.2% | 35.5% |
Max Negative | -8.5% | -14.6% | -29.1% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
7312025 | 8272025 | 10-Q 7/27/2025 |
4302025 | 5282025 | 10-Q 4/27/2025 |
1312025 | 2262025 | 10-K 1/26/2025 |
10312024 | 11202024 | 10-Q 10/27/2024 |
7312024 | 8282024 | 10-Q 7/28/2024 |
4302024 | 5292024 | 10-Q 4/28/2024 |
1312024 | 2212024 | 10-K 1/28/2024 |
10312023 | 11212023 | 10-Q 10/29/2023 |
7312023 | 8282023 | 10-Q 7/30/2023 |
4302023 | 5262023 | 10-Q 4/30/2023 |
1312023 | 2242023 | 10-K 1/29/2023 |
10312022 | 11182022 | 10-Q 10/30/2022 |
7312022 | 8312022 | 10-Q 7/31/2022 |
4302022 | 5272022 | 10-Q 5/1/2022 |
1312022 | 3182022 | 10-K 1/30/2022 |
10312021 | 11222021 | 10-Q 10/31/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | HUANG JEN HSUN | President and CEO | 9292025 | Sell | 173.85 | 4,643 | 807,172 | 12,421,987,045 | Form |
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