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NVIDIA (NVDA)

Market Price (4/19/2026): $200.97 | Market Cap: $4.9 Tril
Sector: Information Technology | Industry: Semiconductors

NVIDIA (NVDA)

Market Price (4/19/2026): $200.97
Market Cap: $4.9 Tril
Sector: Information Technology
Industry: Semiconductors

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.

0

Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%

Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 60%

Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, CFO LTM is 103 Bil, FCF LTM is 97 Bil

Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 83 Bil

Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 35%

Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, Show more.

Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.6%, Dist 3Y High is -2.6%

Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 23x

Key risks
NVDA key risks include [1] U.S. Show more.

0 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 65%
1 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 60%
2 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 48%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 45%, CFO LTM is 103 Bil, FCF LTM is 97 Bil
3 Stock buyback support
Stock Buyback 3Y Total is 83 Bil
4 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 35%
5 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Technologies, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, Automation & Robotics, Show more.
6 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -2.6%, Dist 3Y High is -2.6%
7 Expensive valuation multiples
P/SPrice/Sales ratio is 23x
8 Key risks
NVDA key risks include [1] U.S. Show more.

Valuation, Metrics & Events

Price Chart

Why The Stock Moved

Qualitative Assessment

AI Analysis | Feedback

NVIDIA (NVDA) stock has gained about 10% since 12/31/2025 because of the following key factors:

1. Continued robust demand for AI infrastructure propelled NVIDIA's Data Center segment. The company's data center revenue reached $62.3 billion in Q4 fiscal year 2026 (ending January 25, 2026), marking a 75% year-over-year increase. This strong performance is driven by an unprecedented capital expenditure cycle among hyperscale cloud providers, including Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta, which are collectively projected to spend over $200 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026. NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture remains a primary revenue driver, with demand causing systems to be sold out through mid-2026.

2. NVIDIA reported exceptional financial results for fiscal year 2026 and provided strong guidance for the subsequent quarter. For fiscal year 2026, which concluded on January 26, 2026, NVIDIA generated total revenue of $215.9 billion, a 65% increase over fiscal year 2025. Net income for the year reached a record $120.1 billion, with gross margins holding steady at 75.0%. Looking ahead, the company projected Q1 fiscal year 2027 (calendar Q1 2026) revenue to be approximately $78.0 billion.

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Stock Movement Drivers

Fundamental Drivers

The 8.1% change in NVDA stock from 12/31/2025 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 15.4% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)123120254182026Change
Stock Price ($)186.49201.688.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)187,142215,93815.4%
Net Income Margin (%)53.0%55.6%4.9%
P/E Multiple45.740.8-10.7%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)24,32724,3020.1%
Cumulative Contribution8.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

12/31/2025 to 4/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NVDA8.1% 
Market (SPY)-5.4%71.1%
Sector (XLK)7.2%79.5%

Fundamental Drivers

The 8.1% change in NVDA stock from 9/30/2025 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 30.7% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)93020254182026Change
Stock Price ($)186.56201.688.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)165,218215,93830.7%
Net Income Margin (%)52.4%55.6%6.1%
P/E Multiple52.540.8-22.2%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)24,36624,3020.3%
Cumulative Contribution8.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

9/30/2025 to 4/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NVDA8.1% 
Market (SPY)-2.9%67.2%
Sector (XLK)9.7%79.6%

Fundamental Drivers

The 86.1% change in NVDA stock from 3/31/2025 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 65.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)33120254182026Change
Stock Price ($)108.35201.6886.1%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)130,497215,93865.5%
Net Income Margin (%)55.8%55.6%-0.4%
P/E Multiple36.440.812.1%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)24,48924,3020.8%
Cumulative Contribution86.1%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2025 to 4/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NVDA86.1% 
Market (SPY)16.3%77.8%
Sector (XLK)50.2%86.4%

Fundamental Drivers

The 626.7% change in NVDA stock from 3/31/2023 to 4/18/2026 was primarily driven by a 700.5% change in the company's Total Revenues ($ Mil).
(LTM values as of)33120234182026Change
Stock Price ($)27.75201.68626.7%
Change Contribution By: 
Total Revenues ($ Mil)26,974215,938700.5%
Net Income Margin (%)16.2%55.6%243.4%
P/E Multiple156.540.8-73.9%
Shares Outstanding (Mil)24,63024,3021.3%
Cumulative Contribution626.7%

LTM = Last Twelve Months as of date shown

Market Drivers

3/31/2023 to 4/18/2026
ReturnCorrelation
NVDA626.7% 
Market (SPY)63.3%64.5%
Sector (XLK)108.4%78.8%

Return vs. Risk

Price Returns Compared

 202120222023202420252026Total [1]
Returns
NVDA Return125%-50%239%171%39%6%1424%
Peers Return45%-42%85%25%41%33%264%
S&P 500 Return27%-19%24%23%16%3%87%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NVDA Win Rate58%42%75%75%67%50% 
Peers Win Rate62%38%65%53%52%50% 
S&P 500 Win Rate75%42%67%75%67%50% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NVDA Max Drawdown-11%-62%-2%-4%-30%-11% 
Peers Max Drawdown-12%-49%-4%-20%-31%-13% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-1%-25%-1%-2%-15%-7% 

[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: AMD, INTC, AVGO, QCOM, MRVL. See NVDA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 4/17/2026 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNVDAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-66.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven197.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven223 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-37.6%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven60.2%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven56 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-56.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven127.7%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven417 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-85.1%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven570.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven2,731 days1,480 days

Compare to AMD, INTC, AVGO, QCOM, MRVL

In The Past

NVIDIA's stock fell -66.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 11/29/2021. A -66.4% loss requires a 197.3% gain to breakeven.

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About NVIDIA (NVDA)

NVIDIA Corporation provides graphics, and compute and networking solutions in the United States, Taiwan, China, and internationally. The company's Graphics segment offers GeForce GPUs for gaming and PCs, the GeForce NOW game streaming service and related infrastructure, and solutions for gaming platforms; Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs for enterprise workstation graphics; vGPU software for cloud-based visual and virtual computing; automotive platforms for infotainment systems; and Omniverse software for building 3D designs and virtual worlds. Its Compute & Networking segment provides Data Center platforms and systems for AI, HPC, and accelerated computing; Mellanox networking and interconnect solutions; automotive AI Cockpit, autonomous driving development agreements, and autonomous vehicle solutions; cryptocurrency mining processors; Jetson for robotics and other embedded platforms; and NVIDIA AI Enterprise and other software. The company's products are used in gaming, professional visualization, datacenter, and automotive markets. NVIDIA Corporation sells its products to original equipment manufacturers, original device manufacturers, system builders, add-in board manufacturers, retailers/distributors, independent software vendors, Internet and cloud service providers, automotive manufacturers and tier-1 automotive suppliers, mapping companies, start-ups, and other ecosystem participants. It has a strategic collaboration with Kroger Co. NVIDIA Corporation was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California.

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1. Intel for AI and advanced graphics chips.

2. The electric utility for AI and high-performance computing.

AI Analysis | Feedback

  • GeForce GPUs: Graphics processing units primarily for gaming and personal computers.
  • GeForce NOW: A cloud-based game streaming service.
  • NVIDIA RTX/Quadro GPUs: Professional-grade graphics processing units for enterprise workstations and creative applications.
  • vGPU Software: Software enabling virtualized graphics and computing in cloud environments.
  • Omniverse Software: A platform for 3D design collaboration and building virtual worlds.
  • Data Center Platforms: Integrated hardware and software systems for AI, high-performance computing (HPC), and accelerated computing in data centers.
  • Mellanox Networking: High-performance networking and interconnect solutions for data centers and supercomputers.
  • Autonomous Driving Solutions: Comprehensive platforms, software, and development agreements for autonomous vehicles and AI-powered automotive cockpits.
  • Jetson Platforms: Compact, high-performance computing platforms for robotics and other embedded AI applications.
  • NVIDIA AI Enterprise: A software suite and framework for accelerating enterprise AI deployment and development.
  • Cryptocurrency Mining Processors (CMPs): Specialized processors designed for efficient cryptocurrency mining.

AI Analysis | Feedback

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) primarily sells its products to other companies rather than directly to individuals. The company's customer base includes various enterprise segments as outlined in its description.

Based on the provided background and general market knowledge consistent with NVIDIA's operations, its major customers are found within the categories of Internet and Cloud Service Providers, Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs)/System Builders, and Automotive Manufacturers. While the background description lists categories of customers, the following are prominent examples of major companies within those categories that are widely recognized as significant customers of NVIDIA:

  • Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) - As a major cloud service provider (Azure) and enterprise software vendor, Microsoft utilizes NVIDIA's data center GPUs for AI, HPC, and cloud computing infrastructure.
  • Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) - Through its Amazon Web Services (AWS) division, Amazon is a substantial consumer of NVIDIA's data center GPUs to power its cloud AI, machine learning, and high-performance computing services.
  • Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) - Google Cloud Platform, a subsidiary of Alphabet, also heavily relies on NVIDIA's GPU technology for its AI workloads, data analytics, and various cloud services.
  • Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL) - As a leading OEM and system builder, Dell integrates NVIDIA's GPUs into its servers, workstations, and personal computers, catering to enterprise, professional visualization, and gaming markets.
  • Mercedes-Benz Group AG (MBG.DE) - Mercedes-Benz has a strategic partnership with NVIDIA for developing software-defined vehicles and next-generation in-car computing platforms, including AI Cockpit and autonomous driving solutions.

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM)

SK Hynix Inc. (000660.KS)

Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (005930.KS)

Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)

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Jensen Huang
Founder, President, and Chief Executive Officer

Jensen Huang co-founded NVIDIA in 1993 and has served as its President and CEO since its inception. He previously gained experience in the tech industry, working at Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and LSI Logic Corporation, where he rose to become a division director. Huang earned a bachelor's degree in electrical engineering from Oregon State University and a master's degree in electrical engineering from Stanford University. Under his leadership, NVIDIA navigated early challenges, including near-bankruptcy in the 1990s, and expanded into GPU production, high-performance computing, and artificial intelligence.

Colette Kress
Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Colette Kress joined NVIDIA in September 2013 as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, overseeing the company's financial strategy and operations. She has over three decades of experience in senior finance roles within the technology sector. Before NVIDIA, Kress spent three years as Senior Vice President and CFO of Cisco's Business Technology and Operations Finance organization. Prior to that, she worked for 13 years at Microsoft, including four years as CFO of the Server and Tools division, and held various senior corporate planning and finance positions. She began her career at Texas Instruments. Kress holds an MBA from Southern Methodist University and a bachelor's degree in finance from the University of Arizona.

Chris A. Malachowsky
Founder and NVIDIA Fellow

Chris A. Malachowsky is a co-founder of NVIDIA and currently serves as an NVIDIA Fellow. He has held various positions at the company since its founding in 1993, overseeing areas such as IT, operations, and product engineering. Before co-founding NVIDIA, Malachowsky held engineering and technical leadership roles at companies including Hewlett-Packard and Sun Microsystems.

Debora Shoquist
Executive Vice President, Operations

Debora Shoquist serves as the Executive Vice President of Operations at NVIDIA, a role she has held since joining the company in 2007. With over two decades of experience prior to NVIDIA, she managed operations at various companies, including Quantum and Coherent.

Jay Puri
Executive Vice President, Worldwide Field Operations

Jay Puri is the Executive Vice President of Worldwide Field Operations at NVIDIA, responsible for overseeing the company's global business, including sales, partnerships, program management, and support services. Prior to joining NVIDIA in 2005, Puri accumulated over two decades of experience in sales, marketing, and management, including a significant tenure as Senior Vice President of the Asia-Pacific Group at Sun Microsystems, and roles at Hewlett-Packard, Booz Allen, and Texas Instruments.

AI Analysis | Feedback

The key risks to NVIDIA's business include:

  1. Intensifying Competition from Hyperscalers and Rivals: A significant risk to NVIDIA stems from its largest customers, major hyperscalers such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, increasingly developing their own custom artificial intelligence (AI) chips and accelerators (e.g., Google's TPU, Amazon's Inferentia/Tranium, Microsoft's Maia, Meta's MTIA, and Tesla's Dojo D1). This trend aims to reduce their dependence on NVIDIA and optimize hardware for their specific AI workloads, particularly for inference, which could erode NVIDIA's market share and revenue from its critical Data Center segment. Additionally, traditional rivals like Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) with its MI300 series and Intel with its Gaudi accelerators are ramping up competition in the AI chip market.
  2. Geopolitical Tensions and Export Controls: NVIDIA operates in a global market and faces substantial geopolitical risks, especially regarding U.S. government restrictions on selling advanced AI chips to China and other regions. China has historically been a major market for NVIDIA, significantly contributing to its data center revenue. These export controls can directly reduce sales, necessitate product redesigns, create uncertainty for customers, and enable local competitors to gain traction, thereby impacting NVIDIA's growth prospects and operational complexity.
  3. Reliance on the AI Boom and Potential for Decelerating AI Spending: NVIDIA's recent explosive revenue growth has been largely fueled by the high demand for AI infrastructure, particularly for training large AI models. However, the business faces a risk if enterprises or hyperscalers slow down their AI capital expenditures, overbuild their infrastructure, or if the evolution of AI workloads shifts away from NVIDIA's primary offerings (e.g., toward more efficient inference or custom accelerators). The market's extremely high expectations for NVIDIA's continued rapid growth also make the company vulnerable to any perceived deceleration in AI spending or shifts in technological requirements.

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The following are clear emerging threats for NVIDIA:

  • Major cloud service providers and hyperscalers developing their own custom AI accelerators and chips: Companies such as Google (TPUs), Amazon (Inferentia/Trainium), and Microsoft are investing significantly in designing specialized silicon tailored for AI and machine learning workloads within their own data centers. This strategic shift aims to optimize performance, reduce operational costs, and decrease reliance on third-party GPU manufacturers like NVIDIA for critical AI infrastructure.
  • Automotive manufacturers and autonomous driving companies designing their own custom AI and autonomous driving chips: A growing number of prominent automotive companies and autonomous vehicle developers are pursuing in-house development of specialized silicon for advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving capabilities. This trend could reduce the market demand for NVIDIA's automotive AI platforms and solutions.

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Here are the addressable market sizes for NVIDIA's main products and services:

  • Gaming GPUs (GeForce GPUs): The global gaming GPU market size was estimated at USD 87.57 billion in 2025.
  • Professional Visualization (Quadro/NVIDIA RTX GPUs): The global advanced visualization market was valued at US$3.78 billion in 2024.
  • Automotive Platforms (AI Cockpit, Autonomous Driving, ADAS): The global automotive advanced driver assistance system market size was estimated at USD 68.26 billion in 2025.
  • Data Center Platforms and Systems:
    • AI Data Center (including GPU-based compute servers): The global AI Data Center Market size is anticipated to grow from USD 236.44 billion in 2025.
    • High Performance Computing (HPC): The global high performance computing market size was valued at USD 59.33 billion in 2025.
    • Data Center Networking Solutions (Mellanox): The global Data Center Networking Market is projected to grow from USD 55.64 billion in 2025.
  • Omniverse Software (Industrial Metaverse): The global industrial metaverse market size was valued at USD 29.05 billion in 2025.
  • Jetson (Robotics and Embedded Platforms): The global embedded AI market size was valued at USD 11.7 billion in 2025.

AI Analysis | Feedback

NVIDIA (NVDA) is expected to drive future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years through several key areas:

  1. Sustained Demand for Data Center AI Infrastructure: NVIDIA anticipates continued exponential growth in demand for its AI computing power and data center platforms. Hyperscalers, cloud service providers, and enterprises are expected to maintain heavy investments in AI infrastructure, including NVIDIA's GPUs and accelerated computing solutions. The company's Blackwell and upcoming Vera Rubin architectures are key to meeting this demand. NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang has projected cumulative revenue from 2025-2027 for AI infrastructure to exceed $1 trillion.
  2. Expansion into Diverse AI Applications and Vertical Markets: Beyond traditional data center applications, NVIDIA expects significant growth from the expansion of AI into new and diverse vertical industries. These include automotive, financial services, healthcare, and robotics. The adoption of generative AI workloads, such as data preparation, large language model (LLM) fine-tuning, and retrieval augmented generation, is increasingly driving enterprise demand.
  3. Growth in the Automotive Segment: The automotive sector is a crucial growth driver, particularly with the increasing adoption of autonomous driving and AI cockpit solutions. Automakers are incorporating NVIDIA's DRIVE platform for software-defined autonomous vehicle fleets. Strategic partnerships with companies like Li Auto, Great Wall Motor, ZEEKR, Xiaomi EV, Hyundai, and Kia underscore this growth.
  4. Continuous Introduction of New Products and Architectural Advancements: NVIDIA's pipeline of new product launches and architectural innovations will be vital for future revenue. This includes new generations of GPUs like the Blackwell Ultra GB300 and B300 series chips, and the forthcoming Vera Rubin AI system, which are designed to offer substantial performance improvements and drive upgrade cycles.
  5. Development and Expansion of Software and Services: Growth in NVIDIA's software and services offerings, such as the NVIDIA AI Enterprise suite and the Omniverse platform, is also an expected revenue driver. These solutions enable various industrial applications, from digital twin creation and simulation in automotive design to broader AI development and deployment for enterprises.

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Share Repurchases

  • In August 2024, NVIDIA's board approved a $50 billion share repurchase authorization.
  • In August 2025, the board authorized an additional $60 billion increase to its share repurchase program, which has no expiration date.
  • NVIDIA's annual share buybacks amounted to $10.039 billion in 2023, $9.533 billion in 2024, and $33.706 billion in 2025.

Share Issuance

  • NVIDIA's annual stock-based compensation for 2023 was $2.709 billion.
  • The company's annual stock-based compensation for 2024 was $3.549 billion.
  • NVIDIA's annual stock-based compensation for 2025 was $4.737 billion.

Outbound Investments

  • NVIDIA committed up to $100 billion to OpenAI in September 2025 for AI infrastructure deployment, structured as 10 separate $10 billion investments, with the first tranche tied to infrastructure deployment goals.
  • The company announced plans to acquire a $5 billion stake in Intel in September 2025, aiming for collaboration on AI processors.
  • NVIDIA entered into an approximately $20 billion agreement with Groq in December 2025, which includes non-exclusive licensing of Groq's AI inference technology, acquisition of key assets, and key personnel joining NVIDIA.

Capital Expenditures

  • NVIDIA's capital expenditures were $1.833 billion in fiscal year 2023, $1.069 billion in fiscal year 2024, and increased to $3.236 billion in fiscal year 2025.
  • Capital expenditures for the fiscal year ending January 2026 peaked at $6.042 billion.
  • The primary focus of these capital expenditures is to support the rapid development of AI infrastructure and data center buildouts to meet the surging demand for its GPUs.

Interactive Breakdown

NVIDIA Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets vs. NVIDIA (NVDA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

TitleDate
0DASHBOARDS 
1NVIDIA Stock Rockets 20% With 11-Day Winning Streak04/16/2026
2NVIDIA Stock Rockets 19% With 10-Day Winning Streak04/15/2026
3NVIDIA Stock Rockets 15% With 9-Day Winning Streak04/14/2026
48-Day Rally Sends NVIDIA Stock Up 14%04/11/2026
5Should You Buy NVIDIA Stock Despite Its High Valuation?03/31/2026
6Stress-Testing the NVDA Thesis: 5 Structural Risks to Watch Over the Next 6 Months03/13/2026
7How Does NVIDIA Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers?03/03/2026
8What Could Light a Fire Under NVIDIA Stock02/26/2026
9The Risk Factors to Watch Out For in NVIDIA Stock02/19/2026
10NVIDIA Stock (+7.9%): AI Infra Spend Signals a Sector-Wide Chase02/07/2026
11ARTICLES 
12NVIDIA Stock Surged 100%, Here’s Why04/18/2026
13Structural Risks to Watch For NVDA Stock Over the Next 6 Months04/17/2026
14Can NVIDIA Outrun Broadcom in the Next Rally?04/17/2026
15NVIDIA Stock Surges 20%, With A 11-Day Winning Spree04/16/2026
16Nvidia Stock To $300?04/15/2026

Trade Ideas

Select ideas related to NVDA.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
PANW_3312026_Insider_Buying_GTE_1Mil_EBITp+DE_V203312026PANWPalo Alto NetworksInsiderInsider Buys | Low D/EStrong Insider Buying
Companies with strong insider buying in the last 1 month, positive operating income and reasonable debt / market cap		0.0%0.0%0.0%
ALKT_3312026_Insider_Buying_45D_2Buy_200K03312026ALKTAlkami TechnologyInsiderInsider Buys 45DStrong Insider Buying
Companies with multiple insider buys in the last 45 days		0.0%0.0%0.0%
DBX_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03272026DBXDropboxDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		2.6%2.6%0.0%
DLB_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03272026DLBDolby LaboratoriesDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		3.5%3.5%0.0%
PTC_3272026_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield03272026PTCPTCDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin		3.5%3.5%0.0%
NVDA_12312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper12312022NVDANVIDIAMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple		189.5%239.0%-2.4%
NVDA_6302022_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE06302022NVDANVIDIADip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap		-3.6%179.3%-25.9%
NVDA_12312018_Dip_Buyer_High_CFO_Margins_ExInd_DE12312018NVDANVIDIADip BuyDB | CFO/Rev | Low D/EDip Buy with High Cash Flow Margins
Buying dips for companies with significant cash flows from operations and reasonable debt / market cap		24.7%76.9%-4.1%

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Peer Comparisons

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Financials

NVDAAMDINTCAVGOQCOMMRVLMedian
NameNVIDIA Advanced.Intel Broadcom Qualcomm Marvell . 
Mkt Price201.68278.3968.50406.54136.20139.69170.69
Mkt Cap4,901.2452.9332.11,927.4145.7120.2392.5
Rev LTM215,93834,63952,85368,28244,8678,19548,860
Op Inc LTM130,3873,694-2328,30912,2051,3387,950
FCF LTM96,6766,735-4,94928,91112,9261,3929,830
FCF 3Y Avg61,5173,420-11,62822,67911,8501,2677,635
CFO LTM102,7187,7099,69729,68414,3901,75012,044
CFO 3Y Avg64,9664,1399,81923,26913,1281,60111,473

Growth & Margins

NVDAAMDINTCAVGOQCOMMRVLMedian
NameNVIDIA Advanced.Intel Broadcom Qualcomm Marvell . 
Rev Chg LTM65.5%34.3%-0.5%25.2%10.3%42.1%29.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg101.8%14.7%-5.5%26.2%2.3%13.3%14.0%
Rev Chg Q73.2%34.1%-4.1%29.5%5.0%22.1%25.8%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM15.4%8.2%-1.1%6.9%1.3%5.1%6.0%
Op Inc Chg LTM60.1%77.1%99.5%51.2%12.2%465.3%68.6%
Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg232.8%143.0%-5,095.4%24.7%-1.2%84.9%54.8%
Op Mgn LTM60.4%10.7%-0.0%41.5%27.2%16.3%21.8%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg59.0%6.8%-3.0%38.2%26.1%0.7%16.5%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM1.5%1.3%0.2%0.6%-0.8%1.6%1.0%
CFO/Rev LTM47.6%22.3%18.3%43.5%32.1%21.4%27.2%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg47.6%13.8%18.4%43.7%32.3%25.1%28.7%
FCF/Rev LTM44.8%19.4%-9.4%42.3%28.8%17.0%24.1%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg45.3%11.2%-21.7%42.6%29.1%19.9%24.5%

Valuation

NVDAAMDINTCAVGOQCOMMRVLMedian
NameNVIDIA Advanced.Intel Broadcom Qualcomm Marvell . 
Mkt Cap4,901.2452.9332.11,927.4145.7120.2392.5
P/S22.713.16.328.23.214.713.9
P/Op Inc37.6122.6-14,438.668.111.989.852.8
P/EBIT34.6106.1125.467.511.036.952.2
P/E40.8104.5-1,243.877.227.245.042.9
P/CFO47.758.834.264.910.168.753.2
Total Yield2.5%1.0%-0.1%1.3%6.3%2.4%1.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%2.6%0.2%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.1%1.2%-9.2%2.4%6.9%1.8%1.9%
D/E0.00.00.10.00.10.00.0
Net D/E-0.0-0.00.00.00.00.00.0

Returns

NVDAAMDINTCAVGOQCOMMRVLMedian
NameNVIDIA Advanced.Intel Broadcom Qualcomm Marvell . 
1M Rtn12.9%35.6%48.3%27.4%3.7%56.1%31.5%
3M Rtn8.3%20.1%45.9%15.8%-14.0%73.7%18.0%
6M Rtn10.1%19.4%85.1%16.8%-15.7%59.0%18.1%
12M Rtn98.8%218.2%261.9%139.7%2.0%170.9%155.3%
3Y Rtn622.7%209.5%125.3%566.7%23.0%243.9%226.7%
1M Excs Rtn4.2%32.0%44.6%21.4%-3.2%51.9%26.7%
3M Excs Rtn5.2%19.5%39.1%16.2%-17.7%71.3%17.8%
6M Excs Rtn5.3%9.9%77.6%9.4%-22.3%50.5%9.6%
12M Excs Rtn47.7%160.1%213.0%97.0%-31.5%130.6%113.8%
3Y Excs Rtn587.7%127.4%45.0%511.8%-52.9%182.8%155.1%

Comparison Analyses

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment
$ Mil20262025202420232022
Compute & Networking116,19347,40515,06811,0466,841
Graphics14,30413,51711,90615,8689,834
All Other 00  
Total130,49760,92226,97426,91416,675


Operating Income by Segment
$ Mil20262025202420232022
Compute & Networking82,87532,0165,0834,5982,548
Graphics5,0855,8464,5528,4924,612
Acquisition-related and other costs-599    
Unallocated operating expenses-1,171    
Stock-based compensation expense-4,737    
All Other -4,890-5,411-3,049-2,628
Total81,45332,9724,22410,0414,532


Price Behavior

Price Behavior
Market Price$201.68 
Market Cap ($ Bil)4,901.2 
First Trading Date01/22/1999 
Distance from 52W High-2.6% 
   50 Days200 Days
DMA Price$183.29$181.76
DMA Trendupdown
Distance from DMA10.0%11.0%
 3M1YR
Volatility36.8%33.8%
Downside Capture0.490.76
Upside Capture218.35197.80
Correlation (SPY)67.4%64.4%
NVDA Betas & Captures as of 3/31/2026

 1M2M3M6M1Y3Y
Beta1.922.061.951.911.692.09
Up Beta0.413.512.822.031.702.04
Down Beta2.141.381.702.031.601.89
Up Capture273%231%214%211%306%4189%
Bmk +ve Days7162765139424
Stock +ve Days10193062134406
Down Capture140%179%168%159%134%112%
Bmk -ve Days12233358110323
Stock -ve Days12233364118344

[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with NVDA
NVDA80.2%34.8%1.74-
Sector ETF (XLK)54.6%21.1%1.9680.7%
Equity (SPY)21.1%12.9%1.3267.5%
Gold (GLD)50.9%27.5%1.49-1.4%
Commodities (DBC)25.2%16.2%1.407.8%
Real Estate (VNQ)17.5%13.7%0.933.2%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)-7.8%42.6%-0.0834.1%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 5-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with NVDA
NVDA67.8%51.6%1.19-
Sector ETF (XLK)17.8%24.7%0.6481.5%
Equity (SPY)10.8%17.1%0.4970.4%
Gold (GLD)22.6%17.8%1.046.4%
Commodities (DBC)11.6%18.8%0.5112.5%
Real Estate (VNQ)4.4%18.8%0.1431.0%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)5.2%56.5%0.3132.0%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How
Based On 10-Year Data
Annualized
Return		Annualized
Volatility		Sharpe
Ratio		Correlation
with NVDA
NVDA72.4%49.8%1.29-
Sector ETF (XLK)22.9%24.3%0.8676.3%
Equity (SPY)14.0%17.9%0.6765.4%
Gold (GLD)14.3%15.9%0.753.6%
Commodities (DBC)8.5%17.6%0.4017.0%
Real Estate (VNQ)5.6%20.7%0.2432.9%
Bitcoin (BTCUSD)68.4%66.9%1.0721.3%

Smart multi-asset allocation framework can stack odds in your favor. Learn How

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date3312026
Short Interest: Shares Quantity280.9 Mil
Short Interest: % Change Since 315202622.5%
Average Daily Volume186.4 Mil
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.5 days
Basic Shares Quantity24,302.0 Mil
Short % of Basic Shares1.2%

Returns Analyses

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More
 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
2/25/2026-5.5%-6.4%-12.4%
11/19/2025-3.2%-3.4%-1.5%
8/27/2025-0.8%-5.5%-1.9%
5/28/20253.2%5.3%17.0%
2/26/2025-8.5%-10.6%-15.1%
11/20/20240.5%-7.2%-7.7%
8/28/2024-6.4%-14.6%-3.3%
5/22/20249.3%16.4%24.4%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive131310
# Negative111114
Median Positive4.0%9.4%19.1%
Median Negative-5.5%-6.4%-4.2%
Max Positive24.4%30.2%35.5%
Max Negative-8.5%-14.6%-29.1%

SEC Filings

Expand for More
Report DateFiling DateFiling
01/31/202602/25/202610-K
10/31/202511/19/202510-Q
07/31/202508/27/202510-Q
04/30/202505/28/202510-Q
01/31/202502/26/202510-K
10/31/202411/20/202410-Q
07/31/202408/28/202410-Q
04/30/202405/29/202410-Q
01/31/202402/21/202410-K
10/31/202311/21/202310-Q
07/31/202308/28/202310-Q
04/30/202305/26/202310-Q
01/31/202302/24/202310-K
10/31/202211/18/202210-Q
07/31/202208/31/202210-Q
04/30/202205/27/202210-Q

Recent Forward Guidance [BETA]

Latest: Q4 2026 Earnings Reported 2/25/2026

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q1 2027 Revenue76.44 Bil78.00 Bil79.56 Bil20.0% Higher NewGuidance: 65.00 Bil for Q4 2026
Q1 2027 GAAP Gross Margin74.4%74.9%75.4%0.1%0.1%Higher NewGuidance: 74.8% for Q4 2026
Q1 2027 Non-GAAP Gross Margin74.5%75.0%75.5%00Same NewGuidance: 75.0% for Q4 2026
Q1 2027 GAAP Operating Expenses 7.70 Bil 14.9% Higher NewGuidance: 6.70 Bil for Q4 2026
Q1 2027 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses 7.50 Bil 50.0% Higher NewGuidance: 5.00 Bil for Q4 2026
2027 GAAP Tax Rate17.0%18.0%19.0%  Higher New
2027 Non-GAAP Tax Rate17.0%18.0%19.0%  Higher New

Prior: Q3 2026 Earnings Reported 11/19/2025

Forward GuidanceGuidance Change
MetricLowMidHigh% Chg% DeltaChangePrior
Q4 2026 Revenue 65.00 Bil 20.4% Higher NewGuidance: 54.00 Bil for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 GAAP Gross Margin 74.8% 2.0%1.5%Higher NewGuidance: 73.3% for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Gross Margin 75.0% 2.0%1.5%Higher NewGuidance: 73.5% for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 GAAP Operating Expenses 6.70 Bil 13.6% Higher NewGuidance: 5.90 Bil for Q3 2026
Q4 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Expenses 5.00 Bil 19.0% Higher NewGuidance: 4.20 Bil for Q3 2026

Insider Activity

Expand for More
#OwnerTitleHoldingActionFiling DatePriceSharesTransacted
Value		Value of
Held Shares		Form
1Robertson, Donald F JrPrincipal Accounting OfficerDirectSell1062026189.8580,00015,187,74265,850,253Form
2Stevens, Mark ATrustSell12222025180.17222,50040,087,3801,373,141,944Form
3Robertson, Donald F JrPrincipal Accounting OfficerDirectSell12222025179.9824,5904,425,72776,826,583Form
4Jones, Harvey CH.C. Jones Living TrustSell12172025177.33250,00044,333,4501,229,504,889Form
5Shoquist, DeboraEVP, OperationsTrustSell12122025183.5280,00014,681,882288,947,330Form

NVDA Trade Sentinel

Stock Conviction

ACCUMULATE (Score 7-8)

CONVICTION RATIONALE

The score reflects a world-class company with a widening competitive moat benefiting from a powerful secular tailwind in AI. The business quality is a 9 or 10. However, the current valuation already prices in enormous success, leading to a more balanced risk/reward skew from today's price. The final 'ACCUMULATE' rating suggests owning a position and adding on any material pullbacks caused by market noise rather than a change in the fundamental thesis.

STOCK ARCHETYPE
Primary: High-Beta Compounder, Secondary: Quality Compounder / Stalwart

NVIDIA's profile is dominated by hyper-growth (+75% in its core Data Center segment) and a high valuation (P/S >20x), fitting the 'High-Beta Compounder' archetype (70% weight). However, its exceptional profitability (75% gross margin), strong FCF generation, and widening competitive moat (CUDA) also give it characteristics of a 'Quality Compounder' (30% weight).

Looking for high-conviction positions with a better risk/reward profile? See what's currently in the Trefis High Quality Portfolio.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Blackwell/Rubin Architecture Adoption Driving AI Factory Build-Out

The primary thesis is that NVIDIA is the sole-source enabler of the AI industrial revolution. The adoption of its next-generation 'Blackwell' and 'Rubin' platforms will fuel a durable capital investment cycle as hyperscalers, enterprises, and sovereign nations build out 'AI factories', sustaining hyper-growth well into calendar 2026 and 2027.

Mechanism: NVIDIA captures value via the high-margin sale of its full-stack, integrated platform, including GPUs, high-speed networking (NVLink, InfiniBand), and the proprietary CUDA software ecosystem, which creates high switching costs and technological lock-in.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Data Center revenue growth accelerated to +75% YoY in Q4 FY26.
  • Forward guidance for Q1 FY27 ($78B midpoint) indicates sustained sequential growth, exceeding a record prior quarter.
  • The CUDA software platform has a massive ecosystem of over 4 million developers, creating a deep and defensible competitive moat.
  • Management has secured supply commitments into calendar 2027, signaling high confidence in long-term demand visibility.
PRIMARY RISK
Hyperscaler In-Sourcing of AI Silicon and Geopolitical Export Controls

The most significant friction is the long-term risk that NVIDIA's largest customers (hyperscalers, >50% of Data Center revenue) successfully develop and deploy their own custom AI silicon at scale, which would reduce NVIDIA's addressable market and erode its pricing power. This is compounded by the volatility of U.S. export controls, which could abruptly remove key geographic markets like China.

Mechanism: Successful in-sourcing by cloud providers would directly compete with NVIDIA's core products, leading to market share loss in their most important customer segment. A severe tightening of export controls would result in a direct and immediate reduction of the company's total addressable market.
Supporting Evidence:
  • Major customers including Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are developing in-house AI accelerators to reduce their dependence on NVIDIA.
  • The U.S. Department of Commerce is actively drafting new rules that could broaden AI chip export license requirements beyond China, creating revenue uncertainty.
Key KPI Watchlist
KPI Threshold Rationale
Data Center Revenue Growth YoY> +60% YoYThis is the primary engine of the business, constituting ~90% of revenue. Sustained hyper-growth confirms the core investment thesis remains intact.
GAAP Gross Margin> 72.0%High and stable gross margins are the clearest indicator of NVIDIA's pricing power and the strength of its technological moat. Any significant compression would signal eroding competitive advantage.
Forward Revenue Guidance (Sequential Growth)Positive sequential growthGiven the current breakneck pace, the market needs to see continued sequential growth to believe the AI cycle is not yet peaking. Any guidance for flat or negative sequential revenue would be a major red flag.
Core Investment Debate

AI Factory Build-Out vs. Hyperscaler Self-Reliance

BULL VIEW

The CUDA ecosystem and rapid architectural innovation (Blackwell/Rubin) create an insurmountable moat, making NVIDIA the sole-source enabler for the multi-year AI industrial revolution.

CORE TENSION

Can NVIDIA's hyper-growth be sustained by the 'AI factory' build-out, or will its largest customers in-source custom silicon, creating a growth ceiling?

PREVAILING SENTIMENT
BULLISH

Data Center revenue growth accelerated to +75% YoY in Q4 FY26, and forward guidance for Q1 FY27 ($78B midpoint) indicates sustained, powerful sequential growth.

BEAR VIEW

Hyperscalers, representing over 50% of Data Center revenue, are aggressively developing in-house chips to cut costs and reduce dependency, posing a long-term structural threat.

Next 6 months: Risks and Catalysts
Timeline Event & Metric To Watch
Late May 2026
Q1 FY2027 Earnings Call
Watch: Q2 FY27 forward guidance. The market needs to see continued sequential growth beyond the monster $78B guide for Q1 to keep the thesis intact.
Late August 2026
Q2 FY2027 Earnings Call
Watch: GAAP Gross Margin. Watch for any compression below the 72% baseline established over the past year. Also, commentary on Blackwell adoption rates.
Next 1-3 Months
U.S. AI Chip Export Control Ruling
Watch: Headline: The U.S. Commerce Department issues a formal rule expanding AI chip licensing requirements beyond China, impacting sovereign AI deals.
Late April / Late July 2026
Hyperscaler Earnings Calls (MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META)
Watch: Headline: Any of the top 4 customers use terms like 'optimization,' 'digestion,' or 'efficiency' regarding AI infrastructure, or guide capex down sequentially.
Key Events in Last 6 Months
Date Event Stock Impact
Oct 29, 2025
Stock Hits New 52-Week High
Details: Shares reached a new high of $207.02, driven by continued analyst upgrades and mounting evidence of an accelerating AI infrastructure spending cycle.
Rose significantly by 3.0%
$201.00 -> $207.01
Nov 20, 2025
Q3 FY2026 Earnings
Details: Reported strong results with Data Center growth of +66% YoY. The muted stock reaction suggested the market was already anticipating a strong quarter.
Muted (-1.0%)
$180.62 -> $178.86
Dec 1, 2025
U.S. Export Control Update
Details: The Commerce Department provided clarification on China export rules for AI chips. The stock gained as the final rules were perceived as less restrictive than worst-case fears.
Modest 1.7% gain
$176.98 -> $179.90
Jan 12, 2026
Sovereign AI Partnership Announcement
Details: Announced a major partnership to build a sovereign AI cloud. The news confirmed a new growth vector but did not materially move the stock on the day.
Flat (0.04%)
$184.85 -> $184.93
Feb 25, 2026
Q4 FY2026 Earnings & Guidance
Details: Reported record Data Center revenue of $62.3B (+75% YoY) and guided Q1 FY27 revenue to $78B. Despite the massive beat, the stock fell on sky-high expectations.
Plummeted 5.5%
$195.54 -> $184.88
Mar 18, 2026
GTC 2026 Conference Keynote
Details: CEO Jensen Huang announced the next-generation 'Rubin' AI platform. The stock reaction was muted as high expectations for the product roadmap were already priced in.
Muted (-0.8%)
$181.93 -> $180.40
Risk Management
Position Sizing

4%-6%

NORMAL

Stock trades with Explosive volatility (3.0x S&P 500) and is currently spiking. While fundamentals are pristine (Bullish sentiment, Widening Moat, High Visibility), the volatile regime caps sizing to manage drawdown risk. This is a Bucket A fundamental case constrained by Bucket C volatility.

Diversification Alternatives
TSM
INDUSTRY

A picks-and-shovels play on the entire AI buildout. Benefits from NVDA, AMD, and in-house silicon growth, avoiding the direct risk of market share shifts between them.

Core Thesis: As the world's dominant semiconductor foundry with a near-monopoly on leading-edge nodes, TSM is indispensable to the AI revolution and benefits from structurally high demand.
AMD
INDUSTRY

A direct, lower-valuation way to play the AI accelerator theme. Significant upside potential if it captures even a small amount of market share from NVIDIA's dominant position.

Core Thesis: AMD is the primary challenger to NVIDIA in the data center, leveraging its MI300X GPUs to gain share with hyperscalers looking for a viable second source for AI silicon.
How Is The Market Pricing NVDA?

NVIDIA is transitioning from a specialized graphics chip company to the primary engine of the AI industrial revolution, with its Data Center platform becoming the vast majority of its business.

Filter all news through the lens of Data Center growth sustainability and the competitive moat around its CUDA software ecosystem.

What will confirm the thesis

Data Center revenue growth >+50% YoY; accelerating adoption of new platforms like Blackwell and Rubin by major cloud providers; announcements of new sovereign AI cloud deployments; evidence of CUDA's widening developer ecosystem.

What will damage the thesis

Deceleration in Data Center growth below guidance; major cloud customers (AWS, Google, Microsoft) successfully deploying in-house AI accelerators at scale for critical workloads; significant performance-per-dollar gains from competitors like AMD or Intel that narrow the gap; increased US export restrictions to key markets.

Noise: Real but irrelevant to thesis

Quarterly fluctuations in the Gaming segment; single-benchmark wins/losses against competitors that don't translate to market share shifts; short-term channel inventory adjustments in the PC market.

Repricing Catalyst

The ramp of the next-generation 'Blackwell' architecture and its successor 'Rubin' are the primary catalysts. These platforms are expected to significantly lower AI inference costs, driving widespread adoption by cloud providers and enterprises building 'AI factories' and sovereign AI capabilities. Management expects sequential growth throughout calendar 2026, exceeding initial forecasts.

What NVDA Makes & Who Pays
TTM figures based on Q4 FY2026 Earnings Press Release, Feb 25 2026
AI & Cloud Data Center Processors
$193.7B TTM (89.7% of Total) · 75% Margin
What It Is

Hopper H100, Blackwell B100/B200, and Rubin platform GPUs; Grace CPUs; NVLink interconnects; InfiniBand and Ethernet networking hardware.

Who Pays & How

Major cloud providers (AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud) and enterprises pay hundreds of billions for NVIDIA's platform because its CUDA software ecosystem and hardware performance are critical for training and deploying AI models, creating a deep technological lock-in. Over 50% of segment revenue comes from hyperscalers.

Per-unit hardware sales of GPUs, systems (DGX, HGX), and networking components.
Competition
AMD - Instinct MI300X
The MI300X offers superior memory capacity (192GB vs 80GB) and bandwidth (5.3 TB/s vs 3.35 TB/s), giving it a performance advantage in specific memory-bound AI inference tasks.
NVIDIA's CUDA software platform is the de-facto industry standard with over 4 million developers, creating high switching costs and a deep ecosystem moat that competitor hardware struggles to penetrate despite comparable or superior specs in some cases.
Gaming & PC Graphics Cards
$16.0B TTM (7.4% of Total) · 75% Margin
What It Is

GeForce RTX series GPUs for gaming PCs and laptops, including the RTX 50 series.

Who Pays & How

PC gamers and enthusiasts pay for GeForce GPUs to get the highest performance in PC gaming, particularly for features like real-time ray tracing (RTX) and AI-powered graphics (DLSS).

Per-unit hardware sales of GPUs to add-in-board partners (e.g., ASUS, MSI) and OEMs (e.g., Dell, HP).
Competition
AMD - Radeon RX Series
AMD's Radeon GPUs often compete aggressively on a price-to-performance basis in mid-range segments.
NVIDIA's brand recognition, dominant high-end performance, and proprietary technologies like DLSS and extensive developer support maintain its market leadership.
Professional Visualization
$3.2B TTM (1.5% of Total) · 75% Margin
What It Is

NVIDIA RTX series GPUs for professional workstations; Omniverse software platform.

Who Pays & How

Professionals in media, design, engineering, and science pay for high-performance, certified GPUs to accelerate rendering, simulation, and complex design workloads.

Per-unit hardware sales for workstations and subscriptions for software like Omniverse.
Competition
AMD - Radeon Pro series
AMD competes on price-performance in certain professional application segments.
NVIDIA's long-standing dominance, driver certifications for professional software (e.g., SolidWorks, AutoCAD), and the CUDA ecosystem provide a strong moat.
Automotive & Robotics
$2.4B TTM (1.1% of Total) · 75% Margin
What It Is

NVIDIA DRIVE platform (Thor SoC) for autonomous driving and in-car infotainment systems; Jetson platform for robotics.

Who Pays & How

Automotive OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers pay for the DRIVE platform to power their advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous vehicle technology. The high computational performance is required for processing sensor data in real-time.

Per-unit hardware sales of system-on-a-chip (SoC) modules.
Competition
Qualcomm - Snapdragon Ride
Qualcomm has deep, long-standing relationships with the automotive industry and offers an integrated platform including connectivity (5G modems).
NVIDIA's high-performance computing leadership and end-to-end software stack (DRIVE OS) for autonomous vehicle development provide a strong competitive advantage for high-end ADAS applications.
NVDA Evolution: Price Return by Era
1993–2005 · The 3D Graphics Pioneer
Winning the PC Graphics Card War
Founded in 1993, NVIDIA's early years were defined by intense competition in the nascent 3D graphics market. The launch of the GeForce 256 in 1999, the world's first GPU, was a pivotal moment, offloading complex geometry calculations from the CPU. This innovation, followed by fierce competition with rivals like 3dfx and ATI, established NVIDIA as the performance leader for PC gaming.
2006–2017 · The GPGPU Pivot
Unlocking the GPU for General Purpose Computing +1,800% (2012-2017)
The 2006 launch of CUDA (Compute Unified Device Architecture) was the company's most critical strategic inflection point. CUDA opened the GPU's parallel processing power to developers and scientists for non-graphics tasks. This sowed the seeds for the GPU to become the ideal processor for the highly parallel workloads of deep learning and scientific computing, moving NVIDIA beyond gaming and into high-performance computing.
2018–Present · The AI Data Center Era
Powering the AI Industrial Revolution +2,500% (2018-2026)
The AI boom transformed NVIDIA into a dominant force in technology. The massive computational needs of large language models and generative AI made NVIDIA's data center GPUs indispensable. Revenue from the Data Center segment exploded, eclipsing all other parts of the business and making the company the primary arms dealer for the AI revolution, with its hardware and software becoming the standard for 'AI factories' worldwide.
Market Is In Wait-and-See Mode
Price structure is strongly bullish. The regime, trend, and proximity to highs all point towards intact institutional trend. Relative to SPY: Performance in line with the broader market with no relative edge or drag in current window. Volume and momentum are strongly confirming. The institutional accumulation is evident and momentum is accelerating. Earnings history is a strong counter-signal. The market has consistently rejected the narrative. This is not noise, but institutional disagreement. NOTE: Structure and earnings history are contradicting each other. The price trend says one thing, and the market reaction to catalysts says another. Treat this with caution and weigh the most recent earnings event heavily.
① Structure
+3
Structural pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by trend regime, SMA cross events, proximity to 52W high, and relative strength vs SPY.
② Volume / Momentum
+3
Volume/Momentum pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by institutional footprint score, OBV divergence, and momentum character.
③ Catalyst
-4
Catalyst pillar score (-4 to +4). Driven by earnings day reaction, 20D post-earnings drift, and post-earnings volume character.
Combined Score
2 / 12
1 Price Structure & Trend Uptrend Cooling · - ▾
2 Momentum Accelerating ▾
3 Relative Strength vs. SPY Neutral Relative Strength ▾
4 Institutional Footprint & Volume Mild Accumulation ▾
5 Volatility Normal ▾
6 Key Price Levels Range · Vol Rising ▾
7 Earnings Reaction History Consistent Pressure ▾
8 How the Verdict Is Derived Three Pillars ▾
Price Intelligence is derived from price-volume pattern analysis only. All moving averages are simple (SMA). Relative strength benchmarked against SPY.

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