Tearsheet

Norfolk Southern (NSC)


Market Price (11/26/2025): $289.0 | Market Cap: $64.9 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation

Norfolk Southern (NSC)


Market Price (11/26/2025): $289.0
Market Cap: $64.9 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Rail Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 39%
Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.3%, Dist 3Y High is -3.3%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -7.4%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45%
 
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
  
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more.
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 39%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 23%
3 Megatrend and thematic drivers
Megatrends include Future of Freight, E-commerce & DTC Adoption, Sustainable Infrastructure, and Energy Transition & Decarbonization. Show more.
4 Trading close to highs
Dist 52W High is -3.3%, Dist 3Y High is -3.3%
5 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -7.4%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -45%
6 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%

Valuation, Metrics & Events

NSC Stock


Why The Stock Moved


Qualitative Assessment

AI Generated Analysis | Feedback

For the period between approximately July 31, 2025, and November 24, 2025, Norfolk Southern (NSC) experienced a notable decline in its stock price, with a decrease of roughly 6.33% from its 52-week high of $302.24 on October 3, 2025, to $283.11 on November 24, 2025. Several key factors contributed to this movement:

1. Mixed Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Report Norfolk Southern reported its Q3 2025 financial results, with adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.30 surpassing analysts' forecasts of $3.20. However, the company's revenue of $3.10 billion slightly missed expectations of $3.11 billion. This mixed performance, particularly the revenue shortfall, led to a negative market reaction, with the stock declining between 1.66% and 2.82% in after-hours trading following the announcement in late October 2025.

2. Intermodal Market Challenges and Weak Coal Prices The company's Q3 2025 earnings call highlighted ongoing difficulties in the intermodal market. Norfolk Southern noted pressures on volumes due to an oversupply of truck capacity and weakening coal export prices. These market headwinds raised concerns among investors about the company's ability to drive revenue growth in the near term.

Show more

Stock Movement Drivers

Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NSC Return25%27%-16%-2%2%26%68%
Peers Return26%19%-9%10%-7%6%48%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%109%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NSC Win Rate67%50%33%42%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate70%50%37%52%45%52% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NSC Max Drawdown-38%-2%-30%-24%-10%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-33%-6%-20%-12%-11%-10% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNP, CSX, CP, CNI, NSC. See NSC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/25/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNSCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven703 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-44.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven80.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven158 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-25.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven95 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven173.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven780 days1480 days

Compare to UNP, CSX, CP, CNI, NSC


In The Past

Norfolk Southern's stock fell -38.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -38.0% loss requires a 61.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Norfolk Southern (NSC)

Better Bets than Norfolk Southern (NSC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NSC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.9%-9.9%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-12.9%-12.9%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-8.0%-8.0%-12.2%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.4%-5.4%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.3%-8.3%-10.8%
NSC_4302023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302023NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-8.0%22.0%-8.0%
NSC_10312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312022NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.5%-14.4%-17.2%
NSC_4302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302022NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-10.3%-19.6%-21.1%
NSC_3312020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy03312020NSCNorfolk SouthernDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
49.4%87.4%-4.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-9.9%-9.9%-14.1%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-12.9%-12.9%-17.5%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-8.0%-8.0%-12.2%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-5.4%-5.4%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-8.3%-8.3%-10.8%
NSC_4302023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302023NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-8.0%22.0%-8.0%
NSC_10312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312022NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.5%-14.4%-17.2%
NSC_4302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302022NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-10.3%-19.6%-21.1%
NSC_3312020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy03312020NSCNorfolk SouthernDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
49.4%87.4%-4.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Norfolk Southern

Peers to compare with:

Financials

NSCUNPCSXCPCNIMedian
NameNorfolk .Union Pa.CSX Canadian.Canadian. 
Mkt Price289.06229.1334.9071.5392.6792.67
Mkt Cap64.9135.765.165.157.665.1
Rev LTM12,23024,54614,12315,02917,19815,029
Op Inc LTM4,7559,9704,8285,5566,4825,556
FCF LTM2,0996,0131,5522,3933,4442,393
FCF 3Y Avg1,4935,4342,5242,2223,5582,524
CFO LTM4,2499,7274,6155,4896,8175,489
CFO 3Y Avg3,7769,0275,0864,9706,9195,086

Growth & Margins

NSCUNPCSXCPCNIMedian
NameNorfolk .Union Pa.CSX Canadian.Canadian. 
Rev Chg LTM0.5%1.1%-3.8%4.0%0.2%0.5%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.3%0.2%-1.0%22.2%1.8%0.2%
Rev Chg Q1.7%2.5%-0.9%3.2%1.3%1.7%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.4%0.6%-0.2%0.8%0.3%0.4%
Op Mgn LTM38.9%40.6%34.2%37.0%37.7%37.7%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg38.6%39.3%36.5%35.7%38.4%38.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-3.2%0.3%-0.7%0.6%0.4%0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM34.7%39.6%32.7%36.5%39.6%36.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg30.9%37.1%35.0%36.9%40.5%36.9%
FCF/Rev LTM17.2%24.5%11.0%15.9%20.0%17.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg12.2%22.3%17.3%16.6%20.8%17.3%

Valuation

NSCUNPCSXCPCNIMedian
NameNorfolk .Union Pa.CSX Canadian.Canadian. 
Mkt Cap64.9135.765.165.157.665.1
P/S5.35.54.64.33.44.6
P/EBIT14.013.114.110.38.213.1
P/E21.919.222.415.312.519.2
P/CFO15.314.014.111.98.514.0
Total Yield4.6%7.6%5.6%7.7%11.8%7.6%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.4%1.1%1.2%3.8%1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.6%3.9%3.9%3.1%5.3%3.9%
D/E0.30.20.30.40.40.3
Net D/E0.20.20.30.40.40.3

Returns

NSCUNPCSXCPCNIMedian
NameNorfolk .Union Pa.CSX Canadian.Canadian. 
1M Rtn3.5%5.8%-3.4%-5.2%-2.8%-2.8%
3M Rtn5.0%3.5%8.1%-6.0%-3.2%3.5%
6M Rtn19.2%3.4%11.9%-10.9%-10.6%3.4%
12M Rtn7.0%-5.9%-3.2%-6.4%-14.8%-5.9%
3Y Rtn22.7%15.3%13.8%-10.1%-22.4%13.8%
1M Excs Rtn4.7%6.6%-1.5%-2.3%-0.6%-0.6%
3M Excs Rtn2.3%-0.0%3.3%-11.1%-8.2%-0.0%
6M Excs Rtn5.4%-10.5%-2.6%-25.9%-25.2%-10.5%
12M Excs Rtn-2.0%-15.6%-13.4%-17.8%-26.5%-15.6%
3Y Excs Rtn-45.1%-53.8%-52.6%-77.3%-91.0%-53.8%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Intermodal3,0903,6813,1632,6542,824
Agriculture, forest and consumer products2,5302,4932,2512,1162,256
Chemicals2,0542,1481,9511,8092,092
Coal1,7131,7331,3101,0471,669
Metals and construction1,6341,6521,5621,3331,461
Automotive1,1351,038905830994
Total12,15612,74511,1429,78911,296


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date11142025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity7,297,896
Short Interest: % Change Since 1031202517.0%
Average Daily Volume1,247,501
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.85
Basic Shares Quantity224,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.3%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
10/23/2025-1.2%-0.8%1.4%
7/29/2025-3.0%-2.4%-2.9%
4/23/20250.9%1.5%9.5%
1/29/20251.8%0.2%-3.5%
10/22/20244.9%2.2%5.2%
7/25/202410.9%10.6%8.6%
4/9/20241.3%-1.9%-6.6%
1/26/2024-1.5%7.9%7.6%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive121413
# Negative121011
Median Positive3.0%2.1%7.2%
Median Negative-1.8%-1.7%-6.6%
Max Positive10.9%10.6%17.0%
Max Negative-5.3%-3.9%-12.0%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025423202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024210202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241022202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023205202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022203202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0ANDERSON RICHARD H 10282025Buy281.862,600732,8231,972,985Form