Tearsheet

Norfolk Southern (NSC)


Market Price (11/5/2025): $283.8 | Market Cap: $63.7 Bil
Sector: Industrials | Industry: Rail Transportation

Norfolk Southern (NSC)


Market Price (11/5/2025): $283.8
Market Cap: $63.7 Bil
Sector: Industrials
Industry: Rail Transportation

Investment Highlights Why It Matters Which of these 2 stories sounds closer for this stock?

1. Generates cash flow

The stock generated 4% or more of the share price (called cash flow yield), and shows moderate 10-15% or more growth.

2. Riding a trend

Think Tesla during the pandemic of 2020 when EVs were riding a cultural high, or Nvidia in the current AI boom, or even Figma. These companies don’t have enough yield, or, enough growth, or both - however - they are riding a trend. They have momentum. These can be more volatile - they don’t have the floor of strong cash flow


0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 39%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -5.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil
  
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
  
0 Attractive operating margins
Op Mgn LTMOperating Margin = Operating Income / Revenue Reflects profitability before taxes and before impact of capital structure (interest payments). is 39%
1 Attractive cash flow generation
CFO/Rev LTMCash Flow from Operations / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 35%, FCF/Rev LTMFree Cash Flow / Revenue (Sales), Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 17%, CFO LTM is 4.2 Bil, FCF LTM is 2.1 Bil
2 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 26%
3 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -5.7%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -41%
4 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

NSC Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
NSC Return25%27%-16%-2%2%23%64%
Peers Return21%13%-6%-0%49%-9%74%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%15%112%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
NSC Win Rate67%50%33%42%50%60% 
Peers Win Rate57%40%32%52%45%42% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%70% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
NSC Max Drawdown-38%-2%-30%-24%-10%-12% 
Peers Max Drawdown-25%-6%-14%-23%-10%-20% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: UNP, CP, CSX, CNI, SWVL. See NSC Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 11/4/2025 (YTD)

How Low Can It Go

Unique KeyEventNSCS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-38.0%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven61.3%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven703 days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-44.7%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven80.7%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven158 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-25.1%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven33.6%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven95 days120 days
2008 Global Financial Crisis2008 Global Financial Crisis  
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Loss% Loss-63.4%-56.8%
2008 Global Financial Crisis% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven173.2%131.3%
2008 Global Financial CrisisTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven780 days1480 days

Compare to UNP, CP, CSX, CNI, SWVL


In The Past

Norfolk Southern's stock fell -38.0% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 12/31/2021. A -38.0% loss requires a 61.3% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

About Norfolk Southern (NSC)

Better Bets than Norfolk Southern (NSC)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to NSC. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.8%-3.8%-3.8%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.3%-7.3%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%-0.8%
NSC_4302023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302023NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-8.0%22.0%-8.0%
NSC_10312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312022NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.5%-14.4%-17.2%
NSC_4302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302022NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-10.3%-19.6%-21.1%
NSC_3312020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy03312020NSCNorfolk SouthernDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
49.4%87.4%-4.1%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
GEO_10312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield10312025GEOGEODip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-0.9%-0.9%-0.9%
RUN_10312025_Short_Squeeze10312025RUNSunrunSpecialShort Squeeze PotentialShort Squeeze Potential
Has potential for a short squeeze. High short interest, rising short interest and high debt.
-3.8%-3.8%-3.8%
PLPC_10312025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%10312025PLPCPreformed Line ProductsQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-0.4%-0.4%-0.4%
VRSK_10172025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10172025VRSKVerisk AnalyticsMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.3%-7.3%-10.5%
CARR_10102025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy10102025CARRCarrier GlobalDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
2.5%2.5%-0.8%
NSC_4302023_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302023NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-8.0%22.0%-8.0%
NSC_10312022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper10312022NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-7.5%-14.4%-17.2%
NSC_4302022_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper04302022NSCNorfolk SouthernMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
-10.3%-19.6%-21.1%
NSC_3312020_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy03312020NSCNorfolk SouthernDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
49.4%87.4%-4.1%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Norfolk Southern

Financials

NSCUNPCPCSXCNISWVLMedian
NameNorfolk .Union Pa.Canadian.CSX Canadian.Swvl  
Mkt Price283.80220.9170.6235.8495.763.0083.19
Mkt Cap63.7130.964.366.859.6-64.3
Rev LTM12,23024,54615,02914,12317,1981814,576
Op Inc LTM4,7559,9705,5564,8286,482-55,192
FCF LTM2,0996,0132,3931,5523,444-2,393
FCF 3Y Avg1,4935,4342,2222,5243,558-2,524
CFO LTM4,2499,7275,4894,6156,817-5,489
CFO 3Y Avg3,7769,0274,9705,0866,919-5,086

Growth & Margins

NSCUNPCPCSXCNISWVLMedian
NameNorfolk .Union Pa.Canadian.CSX Canadian.Swvl  
Rev Chg LTM0.5%1.1%4.0%-3.8%0.2%22.5%0.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.3%0.2%22.2%-1.0%1.8%-0.2%
Rev Chg Q1.7%2.5%3.2%-0.9%1.3%123.4%2.1%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.4%0.6%0.8%-0.2%0.3%290.5%0.5%
Op Mgn LTM38.9%40.6%37.0%34.2%37.7%-28.5%37.3%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg38.6%39.3%35.7%36.5%38.4%-38.4%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-3.2%0.3%0.6%-0.7%0.4%-0.3%
CFO/Rev LTM34.7%39.6%36.5%32.7%39.6%-36.5%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg30.9%37.1%36.9%35.0%40.5%-36.9%
FCF/Rev LTM17.2%24.5%15.9%11.0%20.0%-17.2%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg12.2%22.3%16.6%17.3%20.8%-17.3%

Valuation

NSCUNPCPCSXCNISWVLMedian
NameNorfolk .Union Pa.Canadian.CSX Canadian.Swvl  
Mkt Cap63.7130.964.366.859.6-64.3
P/S5.25.34.34.73.5-4.7
P/EBIT13.812.710.214.58.5-12.7
P/E21.518.615.123.012.9-18.6
P/CFO15.013.511.714.58.7-13.5
Total Yield4.7%7.9%7.8%5.4%11.4%-7.8%
Dividend Yield0.0%2.5%1.2%1.1%3.7%-1.2%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg2.6%3.9%3.1%3.9%5.3%-3.9%
D/E0.30.30.40.30.4-0.3
Net D/E0.20.20.40.30.4-0.3

Returns

NSCUNPCPCSXCNISWVLMedian
NameNorfolk .Union Pa.Canadian.CSX Canadian.Swvl  
1M Rtn-5.4%-6.7%-9.0%-0.5%-0.6%-5.6%-5.5%
3M Rtn1.4%-0.3%-5.8%0.9%2.6%-24.8%0.3%
6M Rtn30.4%4.9%-3.4%28.6%-1.2%1.7%3.3%
12M Rtn16.5%-1.6%-8.9%9.1%-8.9%-13.3%-5.2%
3Y Rtn29.4%20.5%-4.7%26.3%-14.1%-76.5%7.9%
1M Excs Rtn-5.8%-7.4%-9.2%-1.6%-1.3%-6.1%-5.9%
3M Excs Rtn-6.4%-8.1%-14.2%-6.8%-4.1%-30.2%-7.5%
6M Excs Rtn9.7%-15.9%-24.2%7.9%-22.0%-19.1%-17.5%
12M Excs Rtn-2.9%-21.2%-26.4%-10.5%-27.5%-28.9%-23.8%
3Y Excs Rtn-40.8%-54.2%-75.7%-45.5%-87.6%-152.2%-65.0%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Intermodal3,0903,6813,1632,6542,824
Agriculture, forest and consumer products2,5302,4932,2512,1162,256
Chemicals2,0542,1481,9511,8092,092
Coal1,7131,7331,3101,0471,669
Metals and construction1,6341,6521,5621,3331,461
Automotive1,1351,038905830994
Total12,15612,74511,1429,78911,296


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date10152025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity6,328,992
Short Interest: % Change Since 930202516.1%
Average Daily Volume1,199,599
Days-to-Cover Short Interest5.28
Basic Shares Quantity224,400,000
Short % of Basic Shares2.8%

SEC Filings

Expand for More

Report DateFiling DateFiling
93020251023202510-Q 9/30/2025
6302025729202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025423202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024210202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241022202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024726202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024424202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023205202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231025202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023426202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022203202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221026202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022727202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022427202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021204202210-K 12/31/2021

Insider Activity

Expand for More

 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0ANDERSON RICHARD H 10282025Buy281.862,600732,8231,972,985Form